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Views for next Fed rate cut pushed back after hot inflation report

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Views for next Fed rate cut pushed back after hot inflation report

Construction work continues at the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC, on Dec. 30, 2025.

Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images

A hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation reading for February had traders contemplating the possibility that the Federal Reserve won’t be lowering interest rates at all this year.

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Following a Bureau of Labor Statistics report that the producer price index posted its biggest gain in a year, futures markets took any realistic chance of a cut off the table until at least December.

Even then, odds of a reduction at the final Fed meeting of the year fell to about 60% as persistently higher inflation — brought on by tariffs, the Iran war and elevated services costs — will keep the central bank on hold. The PPI report came just hours before the Federal Open Market Committee was to release its latest interest rate decision.

The wholesale inflation reading “likely reinforces a hold decision by the Federal Reserve later today but tilts the risk toward a more hawkish tone in today’s FOMC” statement, said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James. “Even if rates are left unchanged and we see multiple dissents, the messaging may lean toward ‘higher for longer,’ especially with energy inflation set to re-enter the picture in coming months.”

Prior to the war that began Feb. 28, traders had been looking for interest rate cuts in both June and September, with an outside possibility of one more in December as the Fed sought to balance its dual mandate of stable prices and low unemployment.

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But odds for a June cut have now slumped to just 18.4%, July is down to 31.5% and September to 43.6%, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, which calculates probabilities using 30-day fed funds futures contracts.

Low conviction

Chances for a December reduction were at 60.5%, indicating that traders are leaning toward a cut, though with a relatively low level of conviction. Historically, the 60% level or above has been associated with Fed moves in either direction.

Futures are implying a 3.43% fed funds rate by the end of 2026, compared to the current level of 3.64%.

To be sure, trading in fed funds futures is volatile, and the Fed could be pushed back into an easing stance if the labor market weakens further. Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller have been advocating for immediate cuts, though the rest of the committee seems more inclined to hold rates where they are until the economic picture clears.

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Correction: The Iran war began Feb. 28. A previous version misstated the country’s name.

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Crypto World

CME Group to Launch Avalanche and Sui Futures Contracts

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CME Group to Launch Avalanche and Sui Futures Contracts

CME Group is expanding its suite of cryptocurrency futures products, as more traditional finance (TradFi) entities launch regulated crypto trading products.

On Tuesday, CME Group announced plans to launch Avalanche (AVAX) and Sui (SUI) futures contracts on May 4, pending regulatory review.

Market participants will be able to trade both micro-sized and larger-sized contracts, including AVAX futures sized at 5,000 AVAX and Micro AVAX futures sized at 500 AVAX, as well as SUI futures sized at 50,000 SUI and Micro SUI futures sized at 5,000 SUI.

CME expands altcoin futures lineup

The news follows CME Group’s announcement in January of its plans to launch crypto futures contracts tied to Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK) and Stellar (XLM).

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The move is the latest sign that traditional financial firms are broadening their regulated crypto product offerings.

CME Group’s continued expansion of its crypto derivatives suite reflects “growing demand for regulated, institutionally-sound products in this asset class,” said Justin Young, CEO and Co-founder of Volatility Shares.

During an earnings call in early February, CME Group CEO Terry Duffy said the exchange is mulling plans to launch its own digital token that could operate on a decentralized network.

CME Group is the largest derivatives exchange by volume, and reported a record average daily trading volume of 28.1 million contracts in 2025, according to a Jan. 7 announcement.

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Related: Crypto exchanges gain as tokenized commodity market climbs to $7.7B

CME Group prepares to launch 24/7 trading for crypto products

More TradFi entities are exploring ways to issue tokenized investment products with 24/7 trading. CME said on Feb. 19 that its cryptocurrency futures and options products will begin trading 24/7 on May 29.

Unlike traditional stocks and equities constrained to trading hours, cryptocurrencies are natively tradable 24/7 through cryptocurrency exchanges and decentralized venues.

On March 24, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) announced it was partnering with tokenization platform Securitize to mint blockchain-based shares of stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Cointelegraph reported. The initiative is part of its parent company, Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) plan for a tokenized securities venue designed for 24/7 trading and instant onchain settlement.

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Meanwhile, crypto exchanges are also venturing into tokenized TradFi products. Coinbase launched 24/7 stock perpetual futures for non-US traders on March 20, offering cash-settled exposure to major US stocks and indices, including Apple and Nvidia.

Crypto exchanges Binance and Kraken have also launched tokenized perpetual futures trading for non-US traders, along with other offshore platforms.

Magazine: Can Robinhood or Kraken’s tokenized stocks ever be truly decentralized?

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