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Vitalik Buterin Warns Prediction Markets Are Becoming Overly Speculative

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Vitalik Buterin Warns Prediction Markets Are Becoming Overly Speculative

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is voicing concern about the current direction of prediction markets, arguing that the sector is drifting away from useful economic tools and toward short-term betting.

Key Takeaways:

  • Vitalik Buterin warns prediction markets are drifting toward short-term speculation and betting.
  • He proposes using onchain markets and AI to hedge everyday expenses and inflation risk.
  • Supporters say platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi can also serve as decentralized market intelligence.

In a recent post on X, Buterin said many platforms are “over-converging” into products centered on rapid price wagers and speculative trading rather than practical applications.

He warned that the trend risks turning prediction markets into little more than gambling venues instead of systems that support real-world economic planning.

Buterin Says Prediction Markets Should Shift From Betting To Hedging

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Rather than focusing on event betting or short-term financial outcomes, Buterin suggested prediction markets should evolve into hedging mechanisms designed to protect consumers and businesses from price volatility.

He outlined a model in which onchain prediction markets work alongside large language models (LLMs).

The system would track price indices across categories of goods and services, such as food, housing or transportation, separated by region.

A user’s personal AI assistant would analyze spending patterns and construct a tailored portfolio of prediction-market positions representing expected future expenses.

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The idea is to help households and companies offset rising costs. Individuals could hold traditional investments for growth while maintaining a basket of prediction-market shares tied to living expenses, creating a buffer against inflation in fiat currencies.

Supporters of prediction markets say the technology already has broader value beyond speculation.

These platforms crowdsource expectations about events, financial trends and economic conditions, producing signals some researchers argue can rival polling data.

Markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have gained traction by offering alternative views on political and economic developments.

Advocates say they provide a decentralized source of intelligence that is harder to shape by centralized narratives.

State Opposition to Prediction Markets Builds Over Consumer Concerns

State opposition to prediction markets has been building for months.

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In 2025, the SWC urged the CFTC to prohibit sports event contracts, arguing that such products bypass state safeguards such as age verification, responsible gaming rules and anti-money laundering requirements.

As reported, a new legislation to limit the interactions between government officials and the prediction markets is being supported by more than 30 Democrats in the US House of Representatives, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The lure behind new restrictions is a controversial Polymarket bet, which started as a bet of $32,000 but eventually became more than $400,000 shortly before the unexpected detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The bill proposed by the New York Representative Ritchie Torres is the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026.

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Last month, Kalshi opened a new office in Washington, D.C., as it ramps up efforts to shape federal and state policy amid growing scrutiny of its products across the United States.

The company also hired veteran political strategist John Bivona as its first head of federal government relations.

The post Vitalik Buterin Warns Prediction Markets Are Becoming Overly Speculative appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Bitcoin Volatility Subsides as Exchange Inflows Drop 90% After Peak Panic Selling

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21Shares Introduces JitoSOL ETP to Offer Staking Rewards via Solana

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin recorded over 52% drawdown from all-time high as price fell below $60,000 on February 6 
  • Binance processed 25,000 BTC in panic-driven inflows before dropping threefold to 8,400 BTC recently 
  • Coinbase Advanced saw inflows plunge tenfold from 17,600 BTC peak to just 1,400 BTC in recent days 
  • Declining exchange inflows across platforms suggest selling pressure has largely subsided for now

 

Bitcoin volatility continues to test market participants as the leading cryptocurrency experiences a prolonged correction phase.

The digital asset dropped below $60,000 on February 6, recording a drawdown exceeding 52% from its all-time high. Exchange inflow data reveals panic-driven selling across both retail and institutional segments.

However, recent trends suggest selling pressure may be stabilizing as inflows decline substantially across major trading platforms.

Exchange Inflows Reveal Widespread Market Stress

The cryptocurrency market faced intense pressure on February 5 when Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged dramatically.

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Trading platforms recorded unusually high volumes as investors rushed to liquidate positions. This behavior reflected growing concerns about further price deterioration across the market.

Binance processed approximately 25,000 BTC in inflows during this period. The platform represents the largest global trading volume and serves a diverse user base.

The substantial flow indicated widespread selling activity across different investor categories. Market analyst Darkfost highlighted these developments in a detailed thread on the social media platform X.

Coinbase Advanced recorded 17,600 BTC in inflows on the same day. This figure represented a fivefold increase compared to early February levels.

The US-regulated platform primarily serves professional and institutional traders. The elevated activity demonstrated that sophisticated investors were not immune to market stress.

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Both platforms experienced similar patterns despite serving different market segments. Retail traders and institutional participants alike moved assets onto exchanges for potential sales.

The synchronized behavior across platforms intensified downward price pressure. This dynamic created a challenging environment for all market participants attempting to navigate the correction.

Recovery Signals Emerge as Selling Pressure Subsides

Market conditions have improved considerably since the early February peak in exchange activity. Binance inflows declined to 8,400 BTC in subsequent days.

This represents a threefold reduction from the earlier surge. The decrease suggests panic selling has largely subsided among the platform’s user base.

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Coinbase Advanced experienced an even more pronounced decline in inflows. The platform recorded just 1,400 BTC in recent activity.

This marks a tenfold reduction from the February 5 peak. Professional and institutional investors appear to have stabilized their positioning strategies.

The declining inflow trend indicates that forced selling has largely concluded. Market participants who needed to liquidate positions have already done so.

Remaining holders demonstrate greater conviction in their investment thesis. This shift creates conditions for potential price stabilization.

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A modest recovery is already underway as selling pressure eases. The cryptocurrency has begun regaining some lost ground in recent sessions.

Sustained recovery depends on whether demand can match or exceed remaining supply. Market observers continue monitoring exchange flows for signs of renewed accumulation or distribution patterns.

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Aave DAO Shift as DeepSnitch AI Rises

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Aave DAO Shift as DeepSnitch AI Rises

Aave is pushing DeFi governance into a new phase. Its proposed $50 million deal to redirect product revenue back to the DAO could reshape how major protocols align incentives and reward token holders, an important shift in today’s crypto news cycle.

But while Aave continues to build, investors are hunting for the best crypto presale to buy. Most of the attention is now turning to DeepSnitch AI.

The project is developing a Web3-native Bloomberg Terminal, drawing over $1.6 million from whales in its presale. Many believe DSNT could be the most important crypto news today.

Aave Labs proposes $50M deal to redirect revenue to DAO

In the latest crypto news today, Aave Labs has requested a $50 million funding package from the Aave DAO in exchange for redirecting all revenue from Aave-branded products to the DAO treasury.

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The proposal includes up to $42.5 million in stablecoins, $25 million as a primary grant and $17.5 million tied to milestones, along with 75,000 AAVE tokens worth roughly $8 million.

In return, revenue from platforms such as aave.com, the upcoming Aave App and Card, Aave Pro, Aave Kit, and Aave Horizon would flow entirely to the DAO.

Top 3 cryptocurrencies to buy amid the crypto news today

DeepSnitch AI

In the latest crypto news today, DeepSnitch AI continues advancing its presale, raising more than $1,590,000 with the token holding at $0.03985. That represents roughly 160% growth from its initial level, reflecting steady participation as the project progresses through its current stage.

The broader thesis centers on its launch structure. By postponing open-market trading while keeping the platform accessible to presale users, the team concentrates on early engagement within a limited group. This approach restricts immediate liquidity while allowing the product to mature and demonstrate utility before wider exposure.

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Supply dynamics further shape expectations. More than 36 million tokens are already staked, reducing the projected circulating float ahead of listing. If awareness expands into a relatively constrained supply environment, early price discovery could be volatile.

There are also ongoing discussions about potential listings on major exchanges, though such outcomes remain speculative until formally confirmed. As with any presale, risks are significant, but DeepSnitch AI combines phased pricing, staking incentives, and live platform access.

Jasmy

JasmyCoin is trying to build a base after breaking a short-term bearish pattern. Fresh buying and optimism around the Jasmy Swap launch have helped sentiment. Price held above the key $0.0048 support on February 13, which keeps recovery hopes alive.

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The bounce still looks fragile. Sellers blocked price near $0.0066–$0.0070 at the top of a descending channel. JASMY also struggles near the mid-Bollinger Band, which acts as resistance. The broader trend has not flipped.

MACD stays below its signal line and shows weak momentum. Bulls must push price above channel resistance to target $0.008 or even $0.01. If $0.0044–$0.0048 fails, sellers regain control.

Pi Network

Pi Network has gained over 10% as traders prepare for the February 15 mainnet upgrade. The update requires node operators to install new software. The team aims to improve speed, security, and scale. That catalyst has fueled buying interest.

PI has broken a short-term descending trendline and shifted momentum higher. Price now holds above $0.15, which shows buyers defend support. The next test sits at $0.20, a key psychological and technical level.

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If PI closes above $0.20, the price could move toward $0.22–$0.25. If bulls fail there, the token may pull back to $0.14–$0.15. Strong selling could expose $0.12.

The bottom line

DeepSnitch AI is the rare chance to sidestep the noise of crypto winter and position before the crowd arrives. While the crypto news today focuses on governance proposals and short-term price swings, the real opportunity sits in this presale.

At $0.03985, a $2,000 allocation secures roughly 52,200 DSNT, and with the DSNTVIP30 bonus, that stack grows even larger before launch.

With over $1.6 million already raised, staking locking supply, and exchange speculation building, the upside narrative is clear. If adoption accelerates in 2026, early buyers won’t just outperform; they could redefine their entire portfolio trajectory.

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Visit the official DeepSnitch AI website, join Telegram, and follow on X for more updates.

FAQs

How does breaking crypto news today impact new investment opportunities?

Breaking crypto news drives short-term volatility, but DeepSnitch AI offers stronger long-term upside through utility and presale positioning.

Which project stands out in the latest blockchain updates?

Among the latest blockchain updates, DeepSnitch AI leads with AI-powered analytics, staking incentives, and accelerating whale participation.

What do current crypto industry headlines suggest for 2026?

Crypto industry headlines highlight innovation, yet DeepSnitch AI remains the top presale for asymmetric growth potential.

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Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.

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BlackRock’s head of digital assets warns leverage-driven volatility risks undermine b itcoin’s institutional narrative

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BlackRock's head of digital assets warns leverage-driven volatility risks undermine b itcoin’s institutional narrative

NEW YORK — While BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is among the most successful product launches in Wall Street history, the crypto market’s growing reliance on leverage could be doing long-term damage to bitcoin’s institutional appeal, according to Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock.

During a conversation with Anthony Pompliano and investor Dan Tapiero at the Bitcoin Investor Week conference in New York on Thursday, Mitchnick said that while bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong, excessive speculation — particularly on leveraged derivatives platforms — is introducing instability that threatens the asset’s positioning as a serious portfolio hedge.

“These days where you have a tiny little thing that shouldn’t have any price impact really at all — and if it does, should be small — like, for example, October 10th, some tariff-related thing, and next thing you know, [bitcoin] is down 20%,” Mitchnick said. “That’s because you get cascading liquidations and auto-deleveraging.”

While bitcoin’s long-term value proposition as a “global, scarce, decentralized monetary asset” remains intact, Mitchnick warned that the asset’s short-term trading behavior is starting to look dangerously similar to “levered NASDAQ” — a perception that may deter conservative allocators from entering the space.

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“The facts are more on the side of how I characterized it,” he said, referring to bitcoin’s fundamental attributes. “But now the trading data, at least lately, looks very different, and the bar to adoption if it trades like levered NASDAQ is much, much, much higher.”

Mitchnick also pushed back on the idea that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like IBIT are contributing to volatility, pointing instead to perpetual futures platforms as the source of instability.

“There’s a misperception out there that it’s a bunch of hedge funds in ETFs that are creating volatility and selling; that’s not what we’re seeing,” he said. “On a week that was tumultuous, obviously, in the bitcoin market, we had 0.2% of the fund redeem. If there actually were hedge funds massively unwinding trades… you would have seen billions. We saw many billions liquidated on these levered platforms.”

Despite short-term turbulence, Mitchnick emphasized that BlackRock remains committed to digital assets as part of a broader financial transformation.

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“We see ourselves as having the role of a bridge… between traditional finance and the digital asset world,” he said. “Over time, there’s certainly going to continue to be a greater role for digital assets and this technology theme in general for many of our clients.”

Read More: Bitcoin May Evolve Into Low-Beta Equity Play Reflexively, BlackRock’s Mitchnik Says

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Is Bitcoin Really in a Bear Market and Where Is the Bottom?

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BTC Crashes $3K in Minutes as Whale Reportedly Wrecked for $1 Billion


BTC’s bottom might not be in, warned ChatGPT and said there could be more pain ahead for investors. Here’s how low bitcoin could go.

Whenever bitcoin corrects after a prolonged rally, the general question within the cryptocurrency community is whether this is another “healthy” retracement in a bull market, or the trend has changed completely, and the bears are in full control.

The past few months, though, do not appear to be a regular correction. Bitcoin traded above $126,000 in early October before it plunged to under $100,000 by the end of the year. Its impressive start to 2026 was quickly halted, and the asset plummeted to $60,000 last Friday, charting a 52% drop since its all-time high.

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What’s perhaps even more worrying is the fact that most other asset classes, including the precious metal market, kept riding high during this time, charting consecutive new peaks.

As such, we decided to ask ChatGPT if it believes BTC is indeed in a bear market or whether this is another ‘typical’ correction.

Is It a Bear Market?

The AI solution acknowledged the substantial crash in early February, indicating that it “represents a major structural shift.”

“Importantly, the $60K zone was a former breakout level during the 2025 rally, which now acts as critical support.”

If the cryptocurrency finds a solid support and stabilizes at these levels, as it has done in the past week, the move south could “resemble previous 50% resets seen during strong cycles,” said the AI. However, a breakdown below these levels could “strengthen the bear thesis significantly.”

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In conclusion to this question, ChatGPT said that BTC is indeed in a bear market, at least by the definition of that phrase. The only thing that remains uncertain is the magnitude and duration.

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Where Is the Bottom?

OpenAI’s platform believes there’s a 35% chance that the bottom was in at $60,000. However, its most likely scenario envisions at least one more leg down that could drive the cryptocurrency to $50,000-$52,000.

“The $50K region represents a strong psychological level and prior consolidation zone. A move here would mark a roughly 60% drawdown from the all-time high, aligning with more severe but still cyclical corrections.”

ChatGPT also outlined two extreme cases, both of which it believes are highly unlikely – a capitulation crash to $40,000-$45,000 or a full-on investor exodus to under $35,000. Nevertheless, it explained that both of these scenarios would require a massive black swan event, such as FTX’s collapse or a new war.

Will Bitcoin Endure?

No matter which of the aforementioned scenarios materializes, ChatGPT remains positive on bitcoin’s long-term potential. It reminded that the asset has experienced and survived far worse drawdowns of up to 80% or even 90% in its early days.

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“The most realistic bottom range currently sits between $50K and $60K, with a deeper flush toward the low-$40Ks possible if macro conditions worsen. However, bitcoin has shown extreme resiliency in the past, and there’s not much evidence to suggest otherwise now.”

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XRP investors likely bought the dip after the recent crash

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XRP: exchange reserve on Binance. (CryptoQuant)

Payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP is rising faster than bitcoin and ether after investors hunted for bargains post early-month crash.

XRP’s price has rallied 38% to $1.55 since hitting a low of $1.12 on Feb. 6, according to CoinDesk data. Prices have jumped by more than 5% in the past 24 hours alone.

This performance puts it well ahead of both bitcoin and ether, which have recovered roughly 15% since Feb. 6. As of writing, bitcoin and ether changed hands at $69,420 and $2,020, respectively.

XRP’s bitcoin-beating rally tracks signs of dip-buying on Binance following the Feb. 6 crash. CryptoQuant data indicates Binance’s XRP reserves dropped sharply by 192.37 million XRP to 2.553 billion between February 7 and 9. The 7% slide marked the lowest level since January 2024, and holdings have remained stable since then.

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XRP: exchange reserve on Binance. (CryptoQuant)

XRP: exchange reserve on Binance. (CryptoQuant)

Analysts typically associate a drop in exchange balances with investor accumulation. The logic is that investors prefer to take direct custody of coins rather than keep them on exchanges when intending to hold them long-term.

Sudden, sharp withdrawals can reduce available supply, opening the door to a price rally. Historical trends reinforce this view. XRP rallied sharply from $0.60 to over $2.40 in the final two months of 2024 as the balance held on exchanges slid faster.

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WLFI May Have Signaled Crypto Crash Hours Before Bitcoin: Study

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WLFI May Have Signaled Crypto Crash Hours Before Bitcoin: Study

World Liberty Financial Token (WLFI), a DeFi governance token affiliated with the Trump family, may have signaled a major market breakdown hours before Bitcoin moved, according to a new analysis by data provider Amberdata.

The report examines trading activity on Oct. 10, 2025, when roughly $6.93 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in under an hour. Bitcoin (BTC) fell about 15% and Ether (ETH) dropped roughly 20%, while smaller tokens lost as much as 70%.

Amberdata found that WLFI began a sharp decline more than five hours before the broader market downturn. At the time, Bitcoin was still trading near $121,000 and showed little immediate stress.

“A five-hour lead time is hard to dismiss as coincidence,” Mike Marshall, who authored the report, told Cointelegraph. “That duration is what separates a genuinely actionable warning from a statistical artefact,” he added.

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Related: Senators ask Bessent to probe $500M UAE stake in Trump-linked WLFI

WLFI anomalies before the selloff

Researchers analyzed three unusual patterns, including a surge in trading activity, a sharp divergence from Bitcoin and extreme leverage, to determine whether WLFI signaled stress before the broader market selloff.

WLFI’s hourly volume jumped to roughly $474 million, about 21.7 times its normal level, within minutes of tariff-related political news. Meanwhile, funding rates on WLFI perpetual futures reached about 2.87% every eight hours, equivalent to an annualized borrowing cost near 131%.

WLFI funding rating. Source: Amberdata

The study does not claim insider trading occurred. Instead, it argues the way crypto markets are structured can make certain assets matter more than their size suggests.

WLFI’s holder base is concentrated among politically connected participants, the report says, unlike Bitcoin’s widely distributed ownership. Marshall said the trading pattern appeared “instrument-specific,” meaning activity was focused on WLFI rather than across the broader crypto complex.

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“If this were superior analysis (sophisticated participants reading the tariff headlines faster and drawing better conclusions) you’d expect to see that reflected more broadly,” he said. “What we actually saw was concentrated activity in WLFI first.”

The timing is notable. Trading volume accelerated roughly three minutes after public tariff news. Marshall said such speed suggests prepared execution rather than retail traders interpreting headlines in real time.

The link between WLFI and the broader market drop comes down to leverage. Many crypto trading platforms let traders use several assets as collateral for borrowed positions. When WLFI fell sharply, the value of that collateral dropped, forcing traders to sell liquid assets like Bitcoin and Ether to cover their positions. Those sales pushed prices lower and triggered further liquidations across the market.

WLFI crashed ahead of Bitcoin. Source: Amberdata

Related: Trump family’s WLFI plans FX and remittance platform: Report

WLFI reacted faster than Bitcoin to stress

Amberdata’s data shows WLFI’s realized volatility reached nearly eight times that of Bitcoin during the episode, making it particularly sensitive to stress. Researchers argue that structurally fragile, highly leveraged assets may move first during market shocks.

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Marshall said the findings should not be interpreted as proof that WLFI can reliably predict downturns. The analysis covers a single event, and more data would be needed to establish statistical consistency. Still, he believes the behavior is significant.