Bitcoin’s first-quarter slump capped an unusual run: nearly six months of underperformance against U.S. equities, a stretch that has no precedent.

“That’s never happened,” said Mark Connors, founder of Risk Dimensions, pointing to data showing bitcoin lagging stocks consistently since early October. The trend has raised fresh questions about whether the asset is behaving more like a risk trade than a hedge.

Bitcoin fell roughly 22% in the first quarter of 2026, following a 25% decline during the final three months of 2025. Over a similar period, the S&P 500 declined far less, leaving a wide performance gap. Connors said the duration of that gap, not just the size, stands out. Previous pullbacks have been sharper but shorter.

The weakness came amid broader market struggles. U.S. equities logged their worst quarter in four years, with the Nasdaq down more than 10% from recent highs. The combined decline across stocks and crypto erased much of the rally that followed the 2024 election.

Policy progress has been uneven. A new SEC chair has helped clear a path for more crypto ETFs, and lawmakers have advanced measures such as the GENIUS Act. Trump also signed an executive order in August that would make it easier for 401(k) plans to include alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, private equity and real estate, which the Labor Department proposed a rule in response to on Monday.

March Shows Signs of Stability

Despite the weak quarter, bitcoin held up better in March than many expected.

The early March escalation between the U.S. and Iran sent shockwaves through global markets, driving oil prices and the U.S. dollar higher as investors reacted to supply risks and rising costs.

The volatility triggered sharp moves across asset classes. Gold, often treated as a safe haven, saw extreme swings as margin calls and urgent liquidity needs forced selling by both institutional investors and sovereign entities. The scale of the move ranked among the most severe short-term dislocations in decades.

Bitcoin, however, did not experience the same level of forced unwinding. The crypto rose about 1% in March, while gold fell 11% over the same period. “It really hung in there,” Connors said.

He attributes that stability in part to earlier liquidations that cleared out leveraged positions. Bitcoin’s ability to move quickly across borders may also limit forced selling compared with physical assets.

Outlook: A “Coiled Spring”?

Looking ahead, Connors pointed to bitcoin’s extended stretch of underperformance relative to equities as a factor that could shape what comes next. Rolling 63-day data shows the asset has lagged the S&P 500 since October — the longest such period on record — an imbalance that has historically preceded reversals.

If that pattern holds, bitcoin could be entering a phase where relative weakness gives way to renewed demand, particularly as macro pressures tied to debt and currency expansion continue to build in the background.

The timing, however, may depend less on market structure and more on geopolitics. The trajectory of the Iran conflict and its impact on energy markets, liquidity and global risk appetite could determine how quickly sentiment shifts.

“It’s either two months or two years,” Connors said.

Galaxy Digital has introduced a Solana staking feature on its GalaxyOne retail platform, furthering its push into consumer crypto services amid intensifying competition among all-in-one trading apps.

In a Tuesday announcement, Galaxy said GalaxyOne users can now stake Solana (SOL) directly through the app, earning up to 6.5% in variable annual rewards. The yield is not fixed and depends on network conditions, validator performance and overall staking participation, meaning actual returns may fluctuate over time.

The rollout reflects a broader industry shift toward integrating yield-generating products into retail platforms, allowing users to earn passive income on idle crypto holdings rather than simply holding or trading them.

To attract early users, Galaxy is waiving commissions on staking until the end of the year — a temporary incentive that suggests the company is prioritizing user acquisition over near-term revenue from the product.

Galaxy already operates institutional-grade Solana validators — infrastructure that helps secure the network by processing transactions and validating blocks. 

In proof-of-stake systems like Solana, users delegate their tokens to these validators, which in turn distribute a share of staking rewards. By integrating this capability into GalaxyOne, the company is effectively extending its existing infrastructure business to retail customers.

The move positions Galaxy more directly against platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood, which offer bundled services including trading, custody and staking. As staking becomes a standard feature across crypto apps, competition is increasingly shifting toward fees, user experience and regulatory access.

Related: SEC approval sought for JitoSOL Solana-based liquid staking token ETF

Institutional demand supports staking narrative

Solana staking continues to draw investor interest despite a sharp decline in price amid broader weakness across the crypto market.

Institutional participation has rebounded recently, as staking-based investment products gain traction. The debut of Solana-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including those with liquid staking strategies, has given investors exposure to both price movements and onchain yield.

Solana traded near $250 in September but has since fallen by roughly 67%. Despite the drawdown, staking activity has held up, indicating continued demand for yield.

Bohdan Opryshko, co-founder and chief operating officer of Everstake, which operates validator infrastructure across multiple proof-of-stake networks, said both retail and institutional participants are increasingly “treating Solana as a yield-generating asset rather than a speculative trade.”

Related: Nasdaq tokenization plans could split trading into two markets — TD Securities