A looming Fed rate hike threatens the fragile rally across Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP. Traders raised the odds of a Fed rate hike at the September 16 meeting to 86.5%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The shift follows fresh inflation data and puts pressure on the broader crypto market this week.

Bitcoin Faces Fed Rate Hike Pressure Before FOMC Meeting

The probability of a Fed rate hike jumped from near 70% before the August inflation report. U.S. CPI inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, fueling the shift. A hike would mark the first increase in three years and signal a tighter policy stance.

Fed policymakers do not fully share this outlook, based on a recent Bloomberg survey of officials. Fewer than 13% of 48 respondents expect a rate increase at the September meeting. Most economists also see no change at the December 2027 decision either.

Bitcoin‘s chart structure still points toward higher levels despite the Fed rate hike concerns. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe expects a period of consolidation before the next upward push. He projects a move toward the $90,000 to $92,000 resistance zone, and bull markets typically avoid sharp pullbacks.

Ethereum Approaches $3,000 Despite Fed Rate Hike Concerns

Ethereum trades near $2,535 and faces resistance between $2,547 and $2,550. Analyst Ted Pillows notes the asset has returned to this key resistance level. A break above this zone could open the path toward higher price targets.

The next major resistance sits just above $2,800, according to Pillows’ analysis. Support levels rest near $2,215 and $1,965 if the price pulls back. A weekly close above $2,550 would clear the way for further gains.

Such a close could push Ethereum toward the $3,000 mark, Pillows suggests. The Fed rate hike decision could still disrupt this trajectory in the near term. Broader risk sentiment remains tied to the outcome of the September Fed meeting.

XRP Tests Key Support Amid Fed Rate Hike Uncertainty

XRP faces a more difficult setup than Bitcoin and Ethereum right now. The token dropped nearly 20% over three weeks, falling from $1.70 to $1.35. Analyst Ali Martinez tracks this decline through on-chain and whale activity data.

Whales sold or redistributed about 90 million XRP tokens over the past week. Daily active addresses fell 90.18%, dropping from 388,492 to 38,163. This decline points to a sharp pullback in network activity and engagement.

The $1.35 level stands as a decisive support zone for XRP, per Martinez. Roughly 2.29 billion tokens already changed hands at this price point. A recovery above $1.38 could send XRP back toward $1.60 and $1.68.

The Fed rate hike remains the dominant factor shaping crypto price action this week. Borrowing costs directly affect risk appetite across digital assets and equities alike. Traders will watch the September 16 announcement for further direction on Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP.

An open-source Bitcoin seed generator has converted radioactive decay events into 12-word and 24-word BIP39 recovery phrases using an offline hardware device.

The Entropy32 Plus repository, published by developer Alexander Higgins in September 2026, contains the project’s firmware, circuit-board designs, fabrication files and printable enclosure. Higgins describes the device as an experimental, educational project and warns users not to trust it with substantial funds before an independent review.

Known as “The Universe Bifurcator,” the device takes pulses from a Geiger counter and measures the time between detected events. Its firmware converts comparisons between consecutive intervals into bits, collects a 512-bit input pool and processes the data with SHA-256.

Entropy32 Plus then formats part of the resulting hash as a standard BIP39 recovery phrase. The device operates without Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or persistent seed storage, according to its published design.

Entropy32 Plus measures time between radiation events

Radioactive decay occurs unpredictably at the level of individual atoms. Entropy32 Plus uses the timing of detected decay events as its physical source of randomness instead of relying solely on a software-generated value.

The current design accepts pulses through a 3.5-millimeter connection from a GQ Electronics GMC-320S Geiger counter. Its documentation says the counter can detect emissions from a radioactive source or background radiation.

After receiving a pulse, an LM393 comparator converts the counter’s analog signal into a digital input. The custom circuit board passes that signal to an ATmega328P microcontroller.

The project’s firmware records each accepted event using a microsecond timer. It compares the latest interval with the preceding one, producing a one when the new interval is longer and a zero when it is shorter.

Equal intervals are discarded. Measurements below 200 microseconds are rejected as possible glitches, while accepted comparisons continue until the device has collected 512 bits.

Higgins says this method uses pulse timing because the precise arrival of an individual decay event cannot be predicted. The developer does not claim that every collected comparison contributes one full bit of measured entropy.

SHA-256 conditions the raw Bitcoin seed data

Once the 512-bit pool is complete, Entropy32 Plus processes all 64 bytes through its bundled SHA-256 code. The firmware uses the first 16 bytes of the resulting hash for a 12-word phrase or all 32 bytes for a 24-word phrase.

According to the project, hashing is intended to reduce visible patterns linked to detector dead time, count-rate changes or correlations between measurements. Hash conditioning can spread available entropy across an output, but it does not prove how much unpredictability was present in the original data.

The firmware includes a startup test for SHA-256. It calculates the hash of “abc” and compares the result with a known value. The device stops before collecting entropy if the answer is incorrect.

Passing the self-test confirms that the implementation returns the expected result for that test vector. It does not test the Geiger counter, assess pulse independence or measure the minimum entropy entering the hash.

The project collects twice as many comparison bits as the maximum 256-bit BIP39 input it produces. Until the physical source undergoes formal measurement, the repository does not establish how much usable entropy each comparison contains.

The device maps conditioned data to BIP39 words

Following SHA-256 conditioning, the device applies the process defined in the BIP39 specification. BIP39 converts an approved entropy length into a mnemonic sentence selected from a standardized list of 2,048 words.

For a 12-word phrase, Entropy32 Plus uses 128 bits of conditioned data and calculates a four-bit checksum. The combined 132 bits are divided into twelve 11-bit groups, with each group selecting one word.

Its 24-word setting uses 256 bits and an eight-bit checksum. Dividing the resulting 264-bit sequence produces 24 word indexes.

Crypto.news’ seed phrase guide explains that recovery phrases hold the information needed to restore wallet access. Anyone who obtains the correct words in their proper order can recreate the wallet’s keys.

A seed phrase is not itself a collection of independently generated words. As crypto.news explained in its guide to public and private keys, modern Bitcoin wallets derive many private keys from one master seed. Weakness in the original entropy can therefore affect every address generated from it.

Entropy32 Plus compiles the complete BIP39 English list into its firmware. The wordlist occupies 13,117 bytes, or roughly 43% of the microcontroller’s flash capacity, according to the repository.

With the OLED interface, SHA-256 implementation and collection logic included, the compiled program uses 30,006 of the chip’s 30,720 available bytes. Only 714 bytes remain unused.

Offline design keeps seeds away from connected devices

The published hardware files list no wireless communications hardware. Users operate the generator through two buttons and read the phrase from a 0.91-inch OLED screen.

Generated word indexes remain temporarily in the microcontroller’s RAM. Once the user records the phrase, pressing both buttons opens a confirmation process that overwrites the word array and restarts entropy collection.

The firmware clears the original pool after copying it for processing. Temporary hash, checksum and entropy buffers are overwritten after the BIP39 indexes have been calculated.

According to the developer, the device does not save a recovery phrase to persistent memory. The open-source design does not include a secure element or a mechanism that proves the installed firmware matches the public code.

Physical isolation removes several network-based attack routes, but it does not verify that a device was assembled correctly or loaded with trusted software. A modified unit could display predetermined words or retain generated data without changing its outward appearance.

Crypto.news’ wallet security guide recommends keeping recovery phrases away from phones, cloud accounts, photographs and other connected systems. Entropy32 Plus’s screen-based process is consistent with offline transcription, provided the hardware and firmware are trusted.

Independent entropy testing remains unfinished

The repository states that the Geiger-based entropy source has not been tested under NIST Special Publication 800-90B. NIST’s methodology covers the evaluation of physical entropy sources and includes separate procedures for independent and non-independent data.

Higgins calls for recording raw inter-arrival times over a long period and examining them with NIST’s non-IID minimum-entropy estimators. The firmware comments warn that general statistical test results alone would not establish sufficient entropy.

“Please verify the entropy source you intend to use otherwise understand that you will be using the device at your own risk,” the README states.

The developer recommends mixing the Geiger-derived data with another independently validated source before creating a wallet for valuable funds. No outside audit, NIST assessment or public raw-event dataset was included in the repository as of Sept. 13.

Past wallet failures show why entropy testing extends beyond confirming that the final words follow BIP39 formatting. Crypto.news reported that Kraken’s security chief called for independent wallet testing after a Coldcard seed-generation vulnerability.

A related technical review explained how weak entropy can expose Bitcoin wallets without revealing which people use the affected devices. Attackers can generate possible seeds, derive their public addresses and search the blockchain for matches.

Crypto.news later reported that predictable seed generation remained exploitable after the underlying flaw had existed for years. Correcting faulty firmware cannot repair phrases generated earlier; affected users must create new wallets and transfer their assets.

Entropy32 Plus remains under active development. Its commit history shows an initial commit dated Sept. 4, followed by firmware, circuit-board and enclosure changes. The repository had no tagged production release or published timetable for completing an independent security assessment as of Sept. 13.

Goldman Sachs has revised its Federal Reserve forecast and now expects a 25-basis-point rate increase when policymakers conclude their Sept. 15–16 meeting.

CoinDesk reported on Sept. 13 that Goldman abandoned its previous forecast for no change after August consumer inflation data and interest-rate futures strengthened the case for a hike.

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 16. A press conference is scheduled for 2:30 p.m., according to the Federal Reserve’s official calendar.

A quarter-point increase would lift the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed has not committed to that decision, and futures pricing represents market expectations, not an official indication from policymakers.

Goldman Sachs changes its Fed rate hike forecast

Goldman’s economists said the August Consumer Price Index report produced only a small revision to their core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation estimate. The bank raised its forecast for monthly core PCE to 0.26%, according to the research note cited by CoinDesk.

“[The report] has not changed our fundamental inflation view,” Goldman said. The bank argued, however, that holding rates unchanged could provoke a sharp response because markets had assigned close to a 90% probability to an increase.

Interest-rate futures put the probability at 87% after the CPI release, up from 72% one day earlier, the Wall Street Journal reported. The probability of at least one increase by year-end reached 97%.

Goldman’s revised forecast does not mean the firm knows how Fed officials will vote. It shows that the bank considers an increase the most likely outcome based on available economic data, policymaker communication and market pricing.

A Reuters poll completed before the CPI release found that most economists still expected the Fed to hold rates through 2026. Reuters noted that confidence in the no-change forecast had weakened as more analysts began anticipating at least one increase.

August inflation delivered mixed signals

The U.S. Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in August after seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Headline inflation remained at 3.4% over the preceding 12 months, unchanged from July.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% during the month. Its annual rate eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, reaching its lowest level in five years.

Energy costs presented a different picture. The BLS said the energy index increased 16.3% over the year through August, while food prices gained 2.7%.

Communication services, lodging, airline fares, education, and used vehicles recorded monthly increases. Medical care and motor vehicle insurance were among the categories that declined.

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk said service-sector details remained uncomfortable for the Fed despite the lower annual core rate. She estimated that services excluding housing components increased 0.5% during August and 3% from one year earlier.

“The gains were heavily in services,” Swonk said. Her description of the service data as evidence of persistent pressure represents an economic assessment, not a conclusion issued by the BLS or Federal Reserve.

Swonk estimated that August headline PCE inflation could rise 0.4% monthly, with core PCE increasing 0.3%. Her forecast would place the respective annual rates at 3.8% and 3.4%, but the Bureau of Economic Analysis has not released the August PCE report.

Economists dispute the case for higher rates

James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus, questioned whether the economic data justified the change in Wall Street forecasts. He argued that Goldman’s revision appeared tied more closely to market expectations than to a changed inflation outlook.

“No material change in inflation outlook, but a hike to calm Wall Street,” Thorne said. His statement represents his interpretation of Goldman’s reasoning and does not establish the Fed’s motive.

Thorne pointed to annual wage growth of 3.1% and said he saw no verified wage-price spiral. He argued that higher borrowing costs cannot expand oil production or repair supply disruptions, while rate increases can reduce demand, investment and household purchasing power.

Swonk reached a different conclusion. She expects three rate increases by early 2027 and said the August report raised the possibility of a unanimous September vote.

“We now expect three rate hikes by early 2027,” she said. The projection belongs to KPMG and has not been endorsed by the FOMC.

The Fed targets 2% inflation using the PCE price index, not CPI. Although annual core CPI fell to 2.4%, Swonk’s forecast places core PCE at a higher 3.4%, showing why analysts have reached different conclusions from the same CPI release.

Bitcoin reacts as Fed expectations rise

Bitcoin traded around $77,000 on Sept. 13 after moving between an intraday low near $76,500 and a high above $77,400. Its price remained below $80,000 as traders prepared for the Fed announcement.

Following the CPI release, Bitcoin briefly recovered above $78,000 as rate-hike odds reached 81%, as crypto.news reported. The probability cited in that article came from Polymarket and was lower than the 87% futures estimate reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Before the inflation figures, Bitcoin had remained near $79,500 as three U.S. economic catalysts approached. The scheduled events included producer inflation, consumer inflation and the September FOMC meeting.

Earlier in September, Bitcoin faced rising rate-hike expectations despite continued ETF demand. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows can support demand, though they do not remove the market’s exposure to interest rates, Treasury yields or changes in the U.S. dollar.

Crypto prices frequently respond to Fed decisions because higher interest rates can increase yields on lower-risk assets. Individual market moves may have several causes, making it difficult to attribute Bitcoin’s daily price changes exclusively to monetary policy expectations.

Fed will release rates and projections on Sept. 16

The FOMC’s two-day meeting begins Sept. 15. Policymakers will release a policy statement, updated economic projections and their individual expectations for future interest rates when the meeting ends the following day.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will address reporters 30 minutes after the statement. Questions are likely to cover energy-driven inflation, service prices, labor-market conditions and whether a September increase would begin a longer tightening cycle.

The Summary of Economic Projections will provide officials’ estimates for inflation, unemployment, economic growth and the federal funds rate. Its rate projections are not binding commitments and may change when new data becomes available.

Markets will compare the policy statement with the Fed’s previous language for any change in its assessment of inflation and employment. Investors will watch whether Warsh describes a rate increase as a one-time adjustment or leaves further decisions dependent on incoming data.

A unanimous vote is not guaranteed. The statement will identify any dissenting officials and specify whether they preferred no change, a larger increase or another policy option. The FOMC will publish its interest-rate decision and economic projections at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Sept. 16, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m.