Crypto World
What It Actually Takes to Prove Someone Is Satoshi Nakamoto
Verifying Satoshi Nakamoto: A matter of math, not media
From time to time, individuals claim to be Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator. Such announcements generate headlines, spark heated debates and trigger instant skepticism. Yet after years of assertions, lawsuits, leaked files and media interviews, no claim has been backed by definitive proof.
The reason is simple. Proving someone is Satoshi is not a matter of storytelling, credentials or courtroom victories. It is a cryptographic problem governed by unforgiving rules.
Nakamoto built Bitcoin (BTC) to function as a peer-to-peer (P2P) cryptocurrency without requiring trust in people. It is widely assumed that Satoshi Nakamoto is an adopted name rather than a real one. As a result, anyone who claims to be Satoshi, or is presented as such, must prove that identity. That proof would likely involve identity documents, historical communication records and, most critically, control of a private key associated with one of Bitcoin’s earliest addresses.
Over the years, several individuals have been speculated to be Satoshi Nakamoto, but only a few have publicly claimed to be the creator of Bitcoin.
The most prominent claimant is Craig Steven Wright, who repeatedly asserted that he was Satoshi. That claim collapsed after a UK High Court ruling explicitly determined he was not Satoshi Nakamoto and sharply criticized the credibility of his evidence.
Dorian S. Nakamoto was identified by Newsweek in 2014 as Satoshi Nakamoto, but he immediately denied any connection to Bitcoin’s creator. Early Bitcoin pioneer Hal Finney also rejected speculation that he was Satoshi Nakamoto before his passing. Nick Szabo has likewise been speculated to be Satoshi over the years and has consistently denied the claim.
What constitutes genuine proof of ownership in Bitcoin
In cryptographic systems like Bitcoin, identity is bound to private key ownership. Demonstrating control requires signing a message with that key, a process that anyone can verify publicly.
This distinction is clear:
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Evidence can be debated, interpreted or challenged.
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Cryptographic verification is binary; it either checks out or it does not.
Bitcoin’s verification model does not rely on authority, credentials or expert consensus. It depends on mathematics, not people, institutions or opinion.
Did you know? Early Bitcoin forum posts and the white paper used British spellings like “colour” and “favour.” This sparked theories about Satoshi’s geographic background, though linguists caution that spelling alone can be easily imitated or deliberately altered.
The gold standard: Signing with early keys
The most conclusive proof of being Satoshi would be a public message signed using a private key from one of Bitcoin’s earliest blocks, particularly those associated with Satoshi’s known mining activity in 2009.
Such a signature would be:
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Verifiable by anyone using standard tools
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Impossible to forge without the actual private key
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Free from dependence on courts, media or trusted third parties.
The tools required for such proof are simple, accessible and decisive, yet no one has ever provided it.
Did you know? Satoshi gradually stepped away from public communication in 2010, just as Bitcoin started attracting developers and media attention. Their final known message suggested they had “moved on to other things,” fueling speculation about motive and timing.
Moving early coins: Even more powerful, but improbable
An even stronger demonstration would be transferring Bitcoin from an untouched Satoshi-era wallet. That single onchain action would dispel nearly all doubt.
Yet it carries massive downsides:
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Instant worldwide scrutiny
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Severe personal security threats
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Potential tax, legal and regulatory fallout
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Market disruption from anticipated dumps.
The most ironclad proof is also the most disruptive. It makes inaction a rational choice, even for the true creator.
Did you know? Blockchain researchers estimate that early mining patterns linked to Satoshi may represent roughly 1 million BTC, making those dormant wallets some of the most closely watched in crypto history.
Why documents, emails and code don’t settle the ownership
While emails, draft papers, forum posts and code contributions can support a claim, they do not constitute definitive evidence. Such materials can be forged, edited, selectively leaked or misinterpreted.
Code authorship does not prove key control. In Bitcoin, keys define identity, and everything else is secondary. Analysis of emails, draft papers and forum posts may offer intriguing correlations between an individual and Bitcoin, but it lacks certainty. The samples are limited, and styles can overlap or be mimicked.
In social settings or conventional legal disputes, identity can be supported by personal testimony or documentation. However, such evidence is irrelevant within Bitcoin’s decentralized model.
Human memory is fallible, and incentives can be misaligned. Bitcoin was designed specifically to avoid reliance on such factors. Cryptographic proof removes any human role from the verification process.
Why partial proof is not proof
Some claimants offer evidence behind closed doors. However, material shown only to select individuals, or signatures produced using later Bitcoin keys, does not meet the required standard.
To convince the world, proof must be:
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Public: Visible to anyone
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Reproducible: Independently verifiable
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Direct: Tied to Satoshi-era keys.
Anything less leaves room for doubt, which is unacceptable to the Bitcoin community.
For Bitcoin to function, its creator does not need to be known or visible. On the contrary, its decentralization narrative is strengthened by the creator’s absence. There is no founder to defer to, no authority to appeal to and no identity to attack or defend.
While most organizations or projects rely on founders or management teams, Bitcoin functions precisely because identity is irrelevant.
Solana price remains under corrective pressure as fading bullish volume and unresolved liquidity below price open the door for a move toward the $57 Fibonacci extension.
Summary
- $170 support flipped to resistance, confirming bearish market structure
- Low-volume bounces signal weak demand, increasing downside risk
- $57 Fibonacci extension is critical, acting as a potential capitulation and reversal zone
Solana (SOL) price action continues to trade within a broader corrective phase after losing key structural support earlier in the cycle. While short-term bounces have emerged, the lack of strong bullish participation suggests these moves may be temporary rather than trend-defining.
As Solana struggles to reclaim former support that has now become resistance, technical conditions are aligning for a deeper downside move before any meaningful reversal can occur.
With volume declining and liquidity building below current price levels, attention is now shifting toward a key high-timeframe Fibonacci extension zone near $57, a level that may act as a pivotal inflection point for Solana’s next major move.
Solana price key technical points
- Former support at $170 has flipped into resistance, confirming bearish structure
- Bullish bounces are occurring on low volume, signaling weak demand
- $57 Fibonacci extension stands out as a macro reversal zone, with strong confluence
The current corrective move accelerated after Solana decisively broke below the $170 level, which had previously acted as a major area of support. Once this level was lost, price quickly transitioned into resistance, reinforcing the bearish shift in market structure. Multiple attempts to reclaim this zone have failed, confirming that sellers remain in control.
Following the breakdown, Solana experienced a sharp downside expansion into the high-timeframe support region near $157. This move reflected capitulation-style selling, though price has so far failed to officially retest the exact support level, instead printing a higher low just above it. While this may appear constructive at first glance, the broader context suggests unfinished business remains below the current price.
Low-volume bounce raises downside risk
One of the most notable aspects of Solana’s recent price behavior is the lack of bullish volume accompanying the bounce from the $157 region. In healthy reversals, price rebounds are typically supported by expanding volume, signaling strong buyer conviction. In this case, however, volume has remained subdued, indicating that the bounce may be driven more by short covering than genuine accumulation.
This type of low-volume recovery often leaves price vulnerable to further downside, particularly when liquidity remains concentrated below recent lows. As a result, the probability increases that Solana may revisit the lower support zone to fully clear remaining sell-side liquidity.
$57 fibonacci extension comes into focus
From a Fibonacci and market structure perspective, the 0.618 extension near $57 represents a critical macro level. This zone aligns with multiple technical factors, including historical demand areas and structural liquidity pockets, making it a high-probability target if the current corrective phase continues.
Such extension levels often act as magnets for price during strong corrective moves, particularly when broader sentiment remains cautious and volume fails to confirm reversals. A move toward $57 would likely coincide with heightened volatility and emotional selling, conditions that frequently precede meaningful market bottoms.
Importantly, a test of this level would not necessarily signal further breakdown. Instead, it may represent the final leg of the corrective structure, setting the stage for a potential macro reversal if buyers step in decisively.
Conditions for a bullish reversal
If Solana does trade into the $57 Fibonacci extension zone, the quality of the reaction will be crucial. A strong defense of the high timeframe support, combined with expanding volume and clear bullish rejection signals, would increase the probability of a sustainable reversal.
Should such a reversal occur, Solana could begin a rotational move back toward higher resistance levels, with the $170 region once again coming into focus. This would effectively keep the broader trading range intact, transforming the recent decline into a completed corrective cycle rather than the start of a prolonged downtrend.
What to expect in the coming price action
From a technical, price action, and market structure perspective, Solana remains vulnerable to further downside as long as bullish volume continues to fade. The $57 Fibonacci extension is the most important downside target and potential reversal zone.
Until that area is tested or convincingly invalidated, traders should remain cautious of short-term rallies. Volatility is likely to remain elevated, with price action driven by liquidity dynamics rather than sustained trend shifts. How Solana reacts near $57 may ultimately determine whether the market is preparing for a deeper correction or laying the groundwork for its next major bullish phase.
Ripple, a leader in the digital asset space, has unveiled a series of strategic partnerships that are set to expand its custody offerings for institutional clients. This new development highlights Ripple’s focus on simplifying digital asset custody services for banks and financial institutions. The company has secured collaborations with Securosys and Figment, with the potential to revolutionize the digital asset landscape, particularly for institutional staking and security.
Ripple’s new partnerships with Securosys and Figment represent significant steps toward enhancing its custody services. The collaboration with Figment will enable banks and custodians to offer staking capabilities for leading proof-of-stake networks, including Ethereum and Solana. This integration allows institutions to provide staking rewards to clients while maintaining full control over the custody process.
The addition of Securosys brings a new level of security to Ripple Custody. By integrating Securosys’ CyberVault HSM and CloudHSM, Ripple can provide its clients with top-tier key management services. These high-security solutions eliminate the usual procurement delays and complexities, streamlining digital asset custody for financial institutions.
Ripple’s CEO, Reece Merrick, emphasized the vast potential of these partnerships. According to Merrick, the addition of staking services with Figment and enhanced security measures with Securosys will redefine the digital asset custody landscape for banks. He believes this will allow institutions to expand their offerings while adhering to the highest security and compliance standards.
Chainalysis Integration for Enhanced Compliance
Ripple has also integrated Chainalysis, a leading blockchain analysis platform, into its custody services. This collaboration ensures real-time transaction screening and policy enforcement for institutions using Ripple Custody. Chainalysis’s technology will allow Ripple Custody clients to monitor all transactions before assets leave their vaults.
This addition is vital in ensuring regulatory compliance for institutions dealing with digital assets. Ripple has embedded Chainalysis into its services to help prevent illicit activities such as money laundering and fraud. The integration aligns with Ripple’s mission to create a secure, compliant, and scalable platform for institutional digital asset management.
The integration of Chainalysis strengthens Ripple Custody’s position as a trustworthy and secure platform for institutional clients. Financial institutions will now have access to advanced tools for monitoring digital asset transactions, further reinforcing Ripple’s commitment to providing secure and compliant solutions.
Palisade Acquisition Adds Wallet-as-a-Service Capability
In addition to the partnerships with Securosys and Figment, Ripple has also acquired Palisade, a company specializing in wallet-as-a-service solutions. This acquisition introduces scalable wallet services with Multi-Party Computation (MPC) and multi-chain support. These capabilities are crucial for managing digital asset treasury functions, payments, and fintech integrations.
The addition of Palisade’s technology to Ripple Custody strengthens its multi-chain support, allowing institutions to manage assets across different blockchains. The wallet-as-a-service model enables financial institutions to securely manage digital assets without the need to develop their own infrastructure. This solution is ideal for organizations looking to streamline their digital asset operations.
Ripple’s acquisition of Palisade complements its broader strategy of enhancing the capabilities of its custody platform. The integration of wallet-as-a-service further positions Ripple as a leading provider of secure and scalable digital asset management solutions for institutions.
Ripple Partners with Zand to Strengthen Digital Asset Ecosystem
In a separate move, Ripple has partnered with Zand to advance the digital asset ecosystem. This collaboration aims to combine Ripple’s USD (RLUSD) stablecoin with Zand’s AED (AEDZ) stablecoin. The goal is to unlock new use cases for digital assets as traditional finance moves on-chain.
The partnership between Ripple and Zand represents a step forward in bridging the gap between traditional finance and the blockchain ecosystem. The integration of both stablecoins will provide businesses and financial institutions with more flexible solutions for cross-border payments and digital asset transfers. Ripple’s collaboration with Zand highlights its commitment to pushing the boundaries of digital finance.
This partnership comes at a time when the demand for digital asset solutions is growing. Ripple’s ability to innovate and build strategic partnerships enables it to stay ahead in the rapidly evolving blockchain space.
Ripple’s Vision for the Future of Custody and Compliance
Ripple’s advancements in custody and compliance are laying the foundation for the next wave of institutional digital asset adoption. By partnering with Securosys, Figment, and other strategic players, Ripple is positioning itself as a leader in the digital asset custody space. These collaborations pave the way for banks, custodians, and regulated enterprises to securely manage digital assets while complying with industry standards.
As Ripple continues to expand its partnerships and offerings, it is clear that the company’s vision for the future of digital asset custody is one of innovation, security, and compliance. Ripple’s ability to integrate cutting-edge technology with real-time transaction monitoring and multi-chain support will help redefine the digital asset landscape for institutions.
The future of Ripple Custody looks bright, with a strategic focus on simplifying the digital asset management process for financial institutions worldwide. Through its partnerships and acquisitions, Ripple is not only enhancing its services but also shaping the future of digital finance.
Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of collapsed crypto exchange FTX, is seeking a new trial, according to a request filed in a New York federal court by his mother.
Since being convicted and imprisoned on a 25-year sentence, SBF has been continually challenging his situation in court. The latest motion for a new trial, first reported on Tuesday by Inner City Press, was filed by his mother, Barbara Fried, claiming new evidence in the case would justify a reset. The filing noted the initial absence of testimony from figures, including FTX’s Ryan Salame, who fought his own, separate legal battle.
The former FTX executive, Salame, was also convicted on federal charges but had claimed he made an arrangement to cooperate with prosecutors that should have protected his wife, Michelle Bond, from legal pursuit. She was later charged with allegedly taking illegal campaign contributions in her congressional bid.
SBF’s 35-page document arrived at the court as a pro se request, meaning the defendant is representing himself.
Earlier efforts by SBF to argue he didn’t get a fair initial trial — which came to a head in November — were met with some skepticism by appellate judges. SBF’s defense in seeking a retrial through appeal focused attention on the later solvency of FTX, and his account on the social media site X continues to make the argument that the company wasn’t bankrupt when it collapsed. However, judges contended in November that solvency didn’t seem to be the primary issue.
“Part of the government’s theory of the case is that the defendant misrepresented to investors that their money was safe, was not being used in the way that it was the government claims and the jury convicted it was, in fact, used,” said Circuit Judge Maria Araújo Kahn, referring to the misappropriation of customer money at the heart of his conviction.
Shutting down another potential path to freedom, President Donald Trump recently said he wouldn’t consider clemency for SBF. However, the former FTX CEO is still campaigning for himself via his account on X, arguing he’s a victim of former President Joe Biden’s “lawfare machine.”
A multibillion-dollar crypto asset manager cites several reasons for the bitcoin plunge, but he’s listing “the four-year cycle” as the No. 1 downward catalyst.
According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, it’s a phenomenon that’s happened three other times in the crypto market.
“People are looking for one thing to blame for the current retracement in bitcoin. But there is not any one thing to blame,” he told “ETF Edge” on Monday.
Hougan contends investors have been favoring other hot investments including gold and artificial intelligence stocks over cryptocurrencies, too.
“There is some quantum risk. There is fear of [Fed nominee] Kevin Warsh,” he said. “In bear markets, all these things are amplified.”
When he was on “ETF Edge” last November, bitcoin had fallen below the $90,000 mark for the first time since April. Its record high of $126,279 was hit in October.
Crypto ETF disruption?
But bitcoin weakness shouldn’t ultimately disrupt the rise of exchange-traded funds specializing in crypto, according to Hougan — who thinks a “self-fulfilling prophecy” is dominating the crypto market right now.
“There is good news underneath the surface. It’s just slow to materialize. So, I don’t think this sort of financialization of bitcoin fundamentally changes the scarcity argument,” Hougan said. “It may change some intraday movements or short-term trading dynamics, but it doesn’t change the sort of fundamental fact there are only 21 million bitcoin. All that derivative demand has to pass through eventually to the spot market.”
His firm, which has more than $15 billion in assets under management, is heavily involved in crypto ETFs.
It launched the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, which tracks the price of cryptocurrency solana, on Oct. 28. The fund is down about 57% since the launch. So far this year, the cryptocurrency is off more than 30%.
Meanwhile, bitcoin tumbled below $61,000 last Thursday — its lowest level in roughly 16 months.
Over 220,000 ETH have exited exchanges in the strongest withdrawal wave seen since last October.
Ethereum appears to be struggling to hold on to $2,000 following the market-wide pullback. Over the past week, the leading altcoin has shed almost 14%.
However, it just recorded its largest exchange outflows since October as traders move assets out to accumulate.
ETH Withdrawals Accelerate
ETH withdrawals from trading platforms have risen sharply. Data compiled by CryptoQuant revealed that the figure has reached its highest level since October. Recent Ethereum exchange netflow data shows a clear acceleration in outflows, which is indicative of a shift in investor behavior toward reducing the amount of ETH held on such venues.
Across all exchanges, net Ethereum outflows have surpassed 220,000 ETH over the past few days. This marks the largest wave of withdrawals since last October. Such an increase reflects a significant volume of ETH being moved from exchanges to private wallets or long-term storage protocols.
CryptoQuant stated that such movements are commonly associated with accumulation phases or with investors seeking to reduce risk by holding assets off exchanges. Binance accounted for a large share of this activity, as daily net outflows reached around 158,000 ETH on February 5.
This was the highest level of Ethereum withdrawals from Binance since last August, which implied that much of the recent exchange outflow was concentrated on the platform with the deepest liquidity.
From a price perspective, these strong outflows occurred while the crypto asset was trading in the $1,800 to $2,000 range. This means that some investors were repositioning or holding ETH at these price levels following the recent market pullback.
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CryptoQuant further added that steady Ethereum outflows of this magnitude reduce the amount of supply readily available for selling. As a result, this trend is viewed as structurally supportive for price in the near term, particularly if market momentum stabilizes or improves.
$2,000 Level Now Under Heavy Watch
All eyes are on the $2,000 level after ETH faced rejection near higher resistance, according to market experts. Ted Pillows, for one, said ETH was rejected from the $2,100 resistance zone and identified $2,000 as the key level to hold. He warned that losing it could lead to a sweep of last week’s low. Analyst Ali Martinez also echoed the focus on this level.
Additionally, MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe shed light on the gap between network activity and price performance. He said that in the early stages of growth, price action often lags behind fundamentals, similar to Ethereum’s 2019 cycle, when market growth was initially limited.
Van de Poppe also explained that the asset’s price began to rise only after stablecoin transactions on the network reached their peak and observed that stablecoin transaction volumes on Ethereum are up 200% over the past 18 months, while ETH is down around 30%, which presents an opportunity for buyers.
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Ledger, the French digital asset security company known for its hardware wallets, has integrated OKX DEX into its Wallet app, enabling users to execute multichain token swaps directly from a self-custodial environment.
According to the company, the integration provides access to OKX DEX’s liquidity aggregation from within the Ledger Wallet app, allowing users to swap tokens with the need to interact with external decentralized exchange interfaces.
Ledger said trades are routed using OKX DEX’s proprietary X-Routing technology, which aggregates liquidity across hundreds of decentralized exchanges to identify efficient execution paths. Transactions remain signed on the user’s Ledger device, with private keys never leaving the hardware wallet.
A spokesperson for Ledger told Cointelegraph that access to the OKX DEX integration is rolling out gradually, starting with availability for about 20% of Ledger Wallet users beginning today, with no device firmware or app update required.
At launch, swaps are supported on Ethereum (ETH), Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP), Base (BASE), Polygon (POL) and BNB Chain (BNB), with no cross-chain or cross-seed swaps enabled.
OKX DEX is a decentralized exchange aggregator within the OKX ecosystem that routes trades across multiple onchain liquidity venues, separate from the company’s centralized exchange.
Related: Uniswap lands on OKX’s X Layer as exchange deepens DeFi strategy
Crypto IPOs expected in 2026
The integration follows reports in January that Ledger is exploring a US initial public offering that could value the company at more than $4 billion, with Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and Barclays involved in early discussions.
While Ledger would not confirm the reports, if true, it would join a growing list of crypto companies with their eyes set on public listings this year.
In January, tokenization platform Securitize advanced plans to go public through a merger with a Cantor Fitzgerald–backed blank-check company, disclosing in related filings that its revenue grew more than 840% through September 2025.
That same month, digital asset custodian Copper was reported to be exploring public listing options, though the company said it is not currently planning an IPO.
US-based crypto exchange Kraken is also expected to go public sometime in 2026. In November, Kraken said it had confidentially filed a draft registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, taking a formal step toward a potential initial public offering of its common stock.
However, on Tuesday, multiple media outlets reported that the company’s CFO, Stephanie Lemmerman, had been ousted. Her name does not appear on Kraken-parent Payward leadership page, which now lists Robert Moore, formerly VP of business expansion, as deputy CFO.
Inquiries on the change to Payward and Kraken by CoinTelegraph were not immediately replied.
Magazine: Big questions: Should you sell your Bitcoin for nickels for a 43% profit?
Bitcoin has paused near recent highs, trading south of $69,000 as markets digest a period of consolidation after a volatile move that saw a dip to $60,000 followed by a rally to $72,000. Analysts note that price indicators have shifted into what some describe as a deep-value zone, prompting renewed debate about whether buyers will step in at these levels. Behind the scenes, researchers rely on two long-running metrics—realized price bands and a power-law quantile framework—that together frame the asset’s potential next leg. Taken together, these measures point to a broad, data-driven picture of accumulation forming at multiple support bands.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s realized price bands align with a long-term accumulation zone that has preceded major price advances in prior cycles.
- The shifted realized price sits near $42,000 while the current realized price hovers around $55,000, signaling a structural support window roughly between $40,000 and $55,000 with potential upside if the pattern repeats.
- The power-law quantile model places BTC near the 14th percentile of its long-term log–log price corridor, suggesting a period of relative undervaluation after a cycle peak that could reach toward $210,000 in 2025 per the model.
- History shows rallies often follow a re-test of these bands, implying meaningful upside potential—roughly 170%–220%—in the next bullish phase and targets above $150,000.
- Consolidation after testing these zones has typically stretched six to eight months before the market resumes its upward trajectory toward new highs.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: The current price dynamics unfold within a broader crypto environment where on-chain signals and valuation models increasingly inform timing. As liquidity ebbs and flows, accumulation zones identified by realized price bands and corroborated by long-term percentile analyses offer a framework for understanding potential inflection points, even as near-term moves remain uncertain.
Why it matters
For long-term holders and traders alike, the convergence of realized price bands with a low percentile reading from the power-law framework adds nuance to market timing. The near-term picture depicts a tug-of-war between downside risk—as implied by lower-bound scenarios in the $40k–$50k range—and the prospect of a broader upcycle should accumulation hold and demand re-emerge. This dynamic matters because it shapes risk budgeting and entry points during periods of sector-wide caution.
Beyond price, the implications ripple through market infrastructure and product design. If these bands function as gravity wells, participants in mining, staking, and decentralized finance may recalibrate risk models and deployment schedules in anticipation of a sustained rebound. The research also underscores the value of on-chain metrics that anchor sentiment, especially when macro conditions remain uncertain and with the possibility of regime shifts in liquidity and risk appetite.
Analysts emphasize that the synthesis of historical patterns with current readings still requires prudence. While the path to new highs has historically followed a phase of accumulation, each cycle contains unique catalysts and macro-tempo changes that can alter outcomes. The narrative around realized price bands and percentile positioning should therefore be viewed as one tool among many in assessing future trajectories, rather than as a guaranteed roadmap.
What to watch next
- Watch for Bitcoin price testing and holding the $55,000 area as a critical inflection point over the next several weeks.
- Monitor how often the price re-tests the realized price bands; a sustained move above the mid-$50ks would bolster the case for continued accumulation.
- Pay attention to the alignment with the power-law percentile, particularly if readings settle within the $50,000–$62,000 corridor, described as a long-term support floor in prior cycles.
- Observe any shifts in the BTC/Gold ratio or related macro indicators that could signal a risk-off or risk-on tilt, which would influence the timing of any durable bottom and subsequent rally.
Sources & verification
- On-chain realized price and shifted realized price concepts used to identify long-term accumulation zones and their historical relevance.
- The visual mapping of monthly price zones based on realized price bands, with sources cited to TradingView.
- The power-law quantile model’s positioning of BTC around the 14th percentile and its implied target near $210,000 in 2025, as discussed by the model’s proponents.
- Related discussion referencing large BTC holders and macro conditions as part of the broader context of market bottoms and pullbacks.
Market reaction and key details
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has cooled after a volatile stretch, trading just below the $69,000 mark as market participants digest the move from a dip to $60,000 and a subsequent push back toward the $70,000 level. The retreat comes as analysts revisit two on-chain gauges that have historically framed long-run value zones. Realized price, which tracks the average cost basis of BTC the last time it moved on-chain, and its shifted counterpart, which smooths this signal forward in time, are currently signaling a broad accumulation range. In practical terms, this means that the market is tracking a price floor around the mid-$40,000s to mid-$50,000s, with the potential for outsized upside if history repeats itself and buyers re-enter the market en masse.
The current readings place realized price near $55,000 and the shifted realized price around $42,000, reinforcing the idea that a robust support base is forming amid a broader pattern of value-driven accumulation. A chart illustrating these zones, which connects monthly price action to realized-price bands, is available via the linked visualization (Cointelegraph/TradingView) and provides a historical lens on how retests of these bands have historically preceded meaningful rallies. For readers curious about the visual, the chart references BTCUSDT on TradingView.
Beyond the realized-price framework, another analytic approach gaining attention is a power-law quantile model popularized by BTC researcher Giovanni Santostasi. The latest update places BTC near the 14th percentile of a long-term log–log price corridor, suggesting a phase of relative undervaluation after a cycle peak that the model projected could reach as high as $210,000 in 2025. This confluence—price trading near realized bands and a low percentile reading on the long-term corridor—has historically coincided with recoveries, even as the structure permits the possibility of further drawdowns in the near term. The model’s $210,000 target underscores the scale of potential upside that such a framework envisions, even as the timing remains uncertain.
The discourse is not without caution. Observers such as Jelle (CryptoJelleNL) have pointed to periods where the BTC price has fallen around 31% from a prior RSI-based breakout, warning that a retracement toward the $52,000s could occur before a durable bottom takes hold. Another analyst, Sherlock, has flagged a breakdown in the BTC/Gold ratio below recent support, a condition that has previously coincided with transitions into bearish phases. In light of these signals, some analysts argue that a deeper retest—potentially into the $38,000–$40,000 region—remains plausible if historical patterns repeat. Still, the broader narrative remains that a test of the realized bands could, if met with a sustained bid, propel BTC into the next leg of its cycle.
As markets weigh these views, traders will be watching for alignment between on-chain signals and price action. The convergence of the realized-price framework with percentile positioning offers a structured lens through which to assess risk and potential catalysts, even as external factors continue to influence risk sentiment across the crypto space. The discussion around Bitcoin’s long-term value, and how that value translates into price, remains highly dependent on a delicate balance of on-chain activity, macro conditions, and investor appetite for risk.
Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?
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Kaito and Polymarket have launched ‘Attention Markets’, merging attention measurement technology with prediction market infrastructure to track cultural narratives.
Kaito and Polymarket have launched ‘Attention Markets’, an initiative that combines Kaito’s attention measurement technology with Polymarket’s prediction market infrastructure.
These markets aim to capture the dynamics of cultural narratives and emerging trends. Prediction market trading volumes have experienced a remarkable surge, growing 850% year-over-year and reaching $6.2 billion in weekly volume as of January 2026. This growth underscores the increasing relevance and influence of prediction markets in capturing collective beliefs and trends.
“As information becomes abundant, attention becomes the scarce resource. Attention Markets represent a new category within prediction markets—one that captures the dynamics of what people are paying attention to, how narratives form, and where relevance is moving next,” said Yu Hu, founder & CEO of Kaito.
A Polymarket spokesperson further elaborated on the partnership: “Polymarket has always been about turning collective beliefs into market signals. Partnering with Kaito allows us to apply that same market logic to attention itself, unlocking new ways for markets to reflect culture, trends, and shifts in public focus.”
Attention Markets will span various verticals, including AI, finance, and entertainment, and be offered on both the Polymarket and Kaito platforms.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.
Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee—big moves are happening on the US coasts. From luxury mansions in Miami to shifts in billionaire residency, wealth is on the move, amid new patterns in finance, real estate, and crypto.
Crypto News of the Day: Florida Emerges as a Tax Haven for Tech and Crypto Wealth
California’s tech and crypto elites are increasingly eyeing Florida as a tax-friendly alternative. Grant Cardone’s recent X (Twitter) post advertising a 10,000 sq. ft., 7-bedroom Miami mansion for 700 BTC highlights the growing intersection of Bitcoin wealth and high-end real estate.
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The listing coincides with a surge in relocations by high-net-worth individuals from California. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, are the latest California billionaires moving to South Florida.
Reportedly, they are purchasing a newly completed waterfront mansion in Miami’s Indian Creek neighborhood. Based on reports, the gated community is home to other high-profile figures, including Jeff Bezos, Tom Brady, and Jared Kushner/Ivanka Trump.
The seller is reportedly a limited liability company tied to Jersey Mike’s Subs founder Peter Cancro. While the deal has not been publicly confirmed as closed, WSJ, citing neighbors, estimates that Zuckerberg plans to move in by April 2026.
California Tax Fallout
The relocations come amid a proposed California billionaire tax that has sparked concern among the state’s wealthiest residents.
According to Chamath Palihapitiya, a Canadian-American VC and SPAC pioneer, California’s total taxable wealth from billionaires has fallen from over $2 trillion to under $1 trillion following announcements of high-profile departures.
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Palihapitiya criticized the state’s handling of the proposed tax, arguing that the middle class will bear the fiscal burden left behind by relocating billionaires.
“These were all people who were paying 13%+ in state income tax every year with no complaints until a few weeks ago,” remarked Palihapitiya.
Against this backdrop, experts describe the billionaire tax initiative as having “backfired in the most spectacular fashion with ripple effects on local economies and corporate headquarters.
Brian Sullivan of CNBC noted that companies often follow CEOs, suggesting that Meta employees could also relocate to Florida, effectively benefiting from lower state income tax rates.
Local real estate agents report a significant uptick in demand for ultra-luxury properties. According to Danny Hertzberg, a Miami agent with Coldwell Banker Realty, interest in South Florida’s high-end market has intensified since the announcement of California’s billionaire tax.
“The 5% tax in California is really driving out people in a major way,” WSJ reported, citing Hertzberg.
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Crypto’s Role in Wealth Mobility
Beyond real estate, the situation mirrors broader trends in wealth mobility and in decentralized assets. Balaji Srinivasan, former CTO of Coinbase, has warned that California’s billionaire tax could disrupt venture capital incentives, potentially reducing Silicon Valley from “one to zero” over the next decade.
He frames crypto networks and internet-native protocols as politically resilient alternatives, able to operate globally and adapt to structural risk in ways traditional tech and finance cannot.
Srinivasan likens the current moment to an extinction event: while Silicon Valley’s centralized dominance may be fragile, decentralized networks like Bitcoin are structurally positioned to thrive in a shifting political and economic playing field.
“…the intended purpose of the California wealth seizure referendum is to rob or exile everyone in tech… The goal of the Democrats is to drive tech out of California, like they did the Republicans…cryptocurrency is built to resist wealth seizures, but Silicon Valley technology sure is not… As a natural-born US citizen, he [Zuckerberg] doesn’t have the same constraints that Thiel and Elon did,” Srinivasan explained.
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As Florida attracts both tech and crypto wealth, Grant Cardone’s 700 BTC mansion is emblematic of a wider trend. High-net-worth individuals are leveraging digital assets and favorable tax jurisdictions to preserve wealth, while California’s billionaire tax debate continues to reverberate across the US.
Chart of the Day
Byte-Sized Alpha
Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below $69,000 on Tuesday, confirming the view that price consolidation is the most likely course over the short term. The sell-off to $60,000 and the subsequent recovery to $72,000 resulted in many BTC price indicators falling into what analysts believe to be a deep value zone, but will buyers reach the same conclusion?
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s realized price bands have aligned with a long-term accumulation zone that preceded new BTC highs.
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Power Law quantile models place BTC near the lower 15% of its long-term log-log price corridor, a zone that has consistently appeared after prior cycle peaks.
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Valuation and momentum metrics are clustering around the $40,000–$55,000 region, marking a statistically significant structural support area.
BTC realized price bands outline long-term DCA zones
Bitcoin’s realized price and shifted realized price have successfully identified long-term accumulation zones since 2015.
Realized price reflects the average cost basis of all BTC last moved onchain whereas the shifted realized price smoothens this metric forward in time, capturing deeper-value zones during stronger drawdowns.
Currently, Bitcoin’s realized price sits near $55,000, while the shifted realized price is around $42,000.
Multiple years of historical data show that rallies following the re-test of these zones delivered big gains, as shown in the chart above. While returns have diminished over time, the structure still implies upside potential of 170% to 220%, aligning with targets above $150,000 in the next bullish period.
Bitcoin has typically consolidated for six to eight months after testing the realized price bands before resuming an upward trend and hitting new highs.
Power law model signals relative undervaluation for BTC
Popularized by BTC researcher Giovanni Santostasi, the updated power law quantile model places BTC near the 14th percentile of its long-term log-log price corridor, suggesting temporary undervaluation following a cycle peak that fell short of the model’s projected $210,000 high in 2025.
Confluence between price trading near realized price bands and lower power law percentiles has preceded major recoveries.
The model’s fifth (0.05) percentile previously marked long-term cycle floors and now sits between $50,000 and $62,000, overlapping with the accumulation range defined by the realized price bands.
Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?
Analysts say Bitcoin may sell off before the next big rally occurs
Bitcoin investor Jelle noted that BTC price is currently down roughly 31% from its first weekly RSI 37 break, a level that has preceded cycle bottoms since 2014.
The drawdowns ranged between 17% and 55%, with the recent cycles bottoming closer to 40–43%, implying potential downside toward $52,000 before a durable low forms.
Crypto analyst Sherlock highlighted a breakdown in the BTC/Gold (XAU) ratio below the 15–16 level, a signal that previously marked transitions into a bearish period.
Based on this framework, Sherlock warns BTC may still see a deeper retracement toward the $38,000 to $40,000 region if history repeats.
Related: Bitcoin price punishes traders as 24-hour crypto liquidations pass $250M
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
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