TLDR:

• Around 92% of short-term holders are currently at a loss, holding approximately 5.7 million BTC below cost basis.
  
• Strategy’s realized price of $75,600 across 762,000 BTC aligns directly with where Bitcoin’s recent rally was rejected.
  
• Bitcoin’s network-wide realized price sits near $54,000, a level historically revisited or traded below in bear markets.
  
• CryptoQuant data show overlapping cost-basis levels above the spot price, creating significant resistance to any Bitcoin recovery attempt.

Bitcoin realized price metrics are drawing close attention from market analysts worldwide. On-chain data shows the price is currently interacting with multiple critical cost basis levels.

Bitcoin is trading around $70,000, with key resistance visible both above and below the current spot price. CryptoQuant recently published an analysis covering short-term holders, a major institutional buyer, and broader network cost averages.

Together, these overlapping thresholds are shaping what analysts describe as a fragile market structure.

Short-Term Holders Sit in Loss as Sell Pressure Mounts

Short-term holders are currently carrying heavy unrealized losses at today’s Bitcoin price. CryptoQuant data shows this cohort holds approximately 5.7 million BTC in total.

Of that amount, only around 8% are currently sitting in profit. The remaining 92% are at a loss at current price levels.

This distribution creates what analysts call a large supply overhang in the market. When most holders are underwater, price rallies often invite immediate selling activity.

Recent buyers tend to use bounces as opportunities to recover their cost basis. That behavior consistently limits how far short-term recoveries can extend.

The short-term holder’s realized price is currently positioned above Bitcoin’s spot price near $70,000. CryptoQuant stated that “recent buyers are underwater, creating sell pressure on every bounce.”

That cost basis level is now acting as overhead resistance on the chart. Price must reclaim it clearly before sentiment can meaningfully shift for this group.

Until short-term holders move back into profit territory, recovery attempts will likely face continued resistance. The volume of BTC held at a loss adds weight to every rally attempt made. Analysts are monitoring the profit-to-loss ratio closely for any early signs of a broader market shift.

Strategy’s Cost Basis and the Network Realized Price Frame the Trading Range

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are also playing a visible role in shaping current market resistance. The firm holds approximately 762,000 BTC with an average cost basis of around $75,600.

CryptoQuant noted that this level aligns directly with where the recent rally faced rejection. That overlap is drawing attention from on-chain analysts tracking large institutional cost basis data.

Large holders with unrealized losses near a price zone can create meaningful resistance for the market. When price approaches their average cost basis, those holders tend to manage risk through selling.

This dynamic appears to have played out during the recent failed push beyond $75,000. CryptoQuant’s data supports this reading of the market’s rejection at that level.

The broader Bitcoin realized price, representing the average cost basis across all holders, currently sits near $54,000.

Historically, during bear markets, price tends to revisit or trade below this level for extended periods. This makes the $54,000 zone a key reference point for analysts monitoring potential downside risk.

Taken together, these three levels frame the current environment for Bitcoin market participants. Resistance from the short-term holder’s cost basis and Strategy’s realized price sits above spot.

The network-wide average near $54,000 remains a potential downside target if conditions deteriorate further. Traders are watching all three levels closely as price action continues to develop.

U.S.-listed cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) is working with Fannie Mae-approved mortgage firm Better Home & Finance Holding Co. (BETR), to enable crypto holders to use their digital assets as down payment collateral when buying a home.

The mortgage is structured as a conforming loan backed by Fannie Mae, meaning it carries the same protections and standards as traditional mortgages, according to a press release on Thursday.

Borrowers pledge bitcoin BTC$69,393.43 or the USDC stablecoin as collateral to fund their down payment, allowing them to keep their assets intact and avoid creating a taxable event by spending them. In the case of USDC, they can keep earnings rewards, Coinbase said.

Some 41% of American families fail to buy a home because they don’t have enough funds for the down payment, even though they have money elsewhere in savings, Better founder Vishal Garg said in an interview.

Average homebuyers have been squeezed by increases in interest rates while house prices stay the same, Garg said. Someone looking to buy a $400,000 property, for example, might struggle to find the $40,000 cash down payment, and face a quagmire of legal and tax requirements when trying to sell assets to make the amount, he said.

Provided the consumer is a crypto holder on Coinbase, they can avoid having to file all manner of “crazy stuff,” Garg said, and simply transfer their digital assets from the exchange to a custody wallet with Better while retaining ownership rights.

If Better had previously been accepting crypto as downpayment collateral, “we would have funded maybe 40 billion more of consumer demand over the past few years,” Garg added.

There have been other advances in the crypto-backed mortgages, including some that use Coinbase as custodian. However, the emphasis has tended to be on wealth management and relatively high-end purchases, rather than catering to the average Joe.

In February 2023, Better allowed Amazon (AMZN) employees to pledge their stock as collateral for a loan to cover the down payment on a house purchase, albeit at a slightly higher interest rate.

A spokesman for Coinbase said via email that the rates for the crypto-backed mortgages will be higher than a standard 30-year by between half a percentage point and 1.5 percentage points, depending on the consumer profile.

The token-backed mortgages would be free of margin calls and top-ups, according to a press release. If BTC drops in value, the mortgage terms remain unchanged and no additional collateral is required. Market movements alone never trigger liquidation, Coinbase said.

Borrowers’ collateral is at risk of liquidation only in the event of a 60-day payment delinquency, similar to conventional mortgages, it said.

The product is “as American as apple pie,” said Coinbase’s head of consumer and platform business development, Mark Troianovski, in an interview with CoinDesk.

“People who are sitting on Bitcoin or USDC can put a roof over their head without needing to sell it, without needing to incur capital gains,” Troianovski said. “We are giving people access to housing in a way that is very similar to how private bankers serve some of the wealthiest customers. They don’t sell assets to buy stuff; they actually take loans against assets.”

TLDR:

• Zepz transferred over $17 billion in 2025, serving migrant workers sending funds across 130+ countries.
• The Sendwave Wallet, built on Solana, lets customers send and store USDC across more than 100 countries.
• TRM Labs has supported Zepz’s stablecoin compliance framework since April 2025, covering AML and sanctions risk.
• Customers can hold USDC instead of converting immediately, offering more control in currency-volatile regions.

Stablecoin remittances are taking a new step forward with a partnership between TRM Labs and Zepz. The collaboration supports the global expansion of the Sendwave Wallet, a stablecoin product built on Solana.

Zepz, the company behind WorldRemit and Sendwave, serves migrant communities across 130+ countries. TRM Labs will provide blockchain intelligence to support financial crime risk management. Together, they aim to scale digital asset-based remittances responsibly across global markets.

Sendwave Wallet Targets Migrant Communities Worldwide

Zepz transferred more than $17 billion for its customers in 2025. The company primarily serves migrant workers who send money to family members monthly.

Many of those recipients live in regions with currency instability or limited banking access. The Sendwave Wallet was built directly in response to those needs.

Launched in October 2025, the wallet operates on the Solana blockchain. It enables customers to send and store USDC across more than 100 countries.

Transfers are near-instant, affordable, and reliable within the Sendwave ecosystem. This gives migrant workers a faster alternative to traditional remittance channels.

TRM Labs described the partnership on X, noting that stablecoins are changing how remittances work. The firm noted that the Sendwave Wallet was designed to support migrant communities globally.

It also confirmed that blockchain intelligence would help strengthen risk management as the platform scales. The post further addressed compliance support as Zepz enters new markets.

Rather than converting funds immediately into local currency, customers can hold USDC. They decide when and how to cash out based on current market conditions.

This feature is especially useful in countries facing frequent currency fluctuations. The model offers more financial control compared to traditional remittance services.

TRM Labs Embeds Compliance Tools into Stablecoin Infrastructure

TRM Labs began working with Zepz in April 2025 on its stablecoin products. The company helped design financial crime controls for the Sendwave Wallet infrastructure.

These controls address sanctions risk, anti-money laundering requirements, and transaction monitoring. Integrating these tools from the start creates a stronger compliance foundation.

TRM’s blockchain intelligence platform enables real-time monitoring of on-chain activity. It helps organizations detect illicit transactions and manage risk across digital assets.

As Zepz expands into new markets, these capabilities become increasingly necessary. Global regulators are paying closer attention to digital asset-based payment platforms.

Will Bell, Business Lead at TRM Labs, shared his perspective on the collaboration. He said the platform helps organizations monitor activity in real time and manage risk exposure.

Bell added that Zepz is combining payment innovation with strong operational safeguards. He noted the goal is to scale digital asset products in line with regulatory expectations.

Zaheer Jassat, VP of Product at Zepz, also commented on the collaboration. He said customers trust Zepz with something personal — supporting family members across borders.

Partnering with TRM, he noted, strengthens Zepz’s ability to manage risk responsibly. Customers can now send, store, and spend stablecoins with greater confidence.

Key Highlights

• British authorities sanction Xinbi cryptocurrency platform disrupting international fraud networks
• Platform facilitated stolen data transactions and enabled transnational crypto fraud schemes
• Cambodian fraud centers connected to human trafficking face escalating UK enforcement
• UK-US collaboration drives major seizures and dismantling of scam infrastructure
• Enforcement targets cryptocurrency channels funding widespread online fraud operations

British authorities have announced comprehensive sanctions against a significant Crypto Scam infrastructure operating throughout Southeast Asia. Officials seek to disable cryptocurrency platforms facilitating widespread internet fraud and human rights violations. This enforcement action represents an escalation in efforts to dismantle organized digital fraud systems harming UK citizens and victims worldwide.

Britain Sanctions Xinbi Platform in Enforcement Action

British regulators designated Xinbi, a digital currency exchange connected to Southeast Asian Crypto Scam networks, for sanctions. This platform enabled illicit trading of compromised personal information and resources utilized in coordinated fraud campaigns. Officials intend to undermine the financial infrastructure sustaining these criminal operations.

The Xinbi platform served fraudulent call centers by providing cryptocurrency services enabling cross-border payments and untraceable financial movements. The marketplace also supplied satellite communications technology allowing fraud operators to contact targets internationally. These functions expanded both the scope and effectiveness of criminal fraud networks.

Sanctions measures block Xinbi from accessing authorized cryptocurrency infrastructures and constrain its operational capacity. Authorities anticipate significant disruption throughout associated fraudulent enterprises. This enforcement follows previous actions that dismantled BYEX, another platform supporting digital currency fraud.

Cambodian Fraud Compounds Connected to Human Trafficking Operations

Investigators established connections between criminal fraud networks and extensive facilities throughout Cambodia and surrounding territories. These installations employed fraudulent employment advertisements to traffic foreign workers into coerced fraud activities. Victims subsequently endured intimidation and mistreatment while executing online scam operations.

Authorities identified the #8 Park facility as among the most significant compounds supporting these criminal enterprises. Reports indicate this location held as many as 20,000 trafficked persons compelled to participate in internet fraud schemes. The enforcement campaign directly confronts a critical node within the organized fraud infrastructure.

British officials also sanctioned Legend Innovation Co., the entity controlling the #8 Park complex associated with the Prince Group. Furthermore, regulators targeted prominent individuals overseeing financial channels linked to fraudulent activities. These measures seek to destabilize command structures directing these operations.

Global Collaboration Strengthens Enforcement Campaigns

British authorities synchronized earlier sanctions with American counterparts against the Prince Group and its leadership. These coordinated actions sparked regional investigations and property confiscations surpassing £1 billion in value. Sustained enforcement pressure progressively weakens the broader criminal network.

Cambodian law enforcement has amplified domestic operations following international partnership efforts. Officials documented numerous enforcement actions, facility shutdowns, and liberation of trafficking victims. These developments demonstrate increasing regional opposition to organized digital fraud enterprises.

The UK intends to strengthen international collaboration through forthcoming financial crime programs and strategic alliances. Authorities will concentrate on monitoring illicit cryptocurrency transactions and disrupting transnational fraud infrastructure. Ongoing enforcement operations aim to diminish the worldwide influence of organized digital fraud systems.

Fear of Regulatory Loopholes

The industry association argued that regulators ought to hold off until Congress finishes crypto banking legislation. It claimed that granting charters without complete regulations could pose a threat to the financial system. In addition, the group urged the OCC not to use conventional timelines on crypto companies. The ABA also expressed concern about the application of the GENIUS Act in the charter process. It observed that a number of agencies are yet to achieve rulemaking pursuant to the law. The group also indicated that implementing it in parts would complicate regulation of crypto firms.

Ripple is also one of the important applicants that will be impacted by the request. The banking group also criticised the OCC, as the firm was conditionally approved by the OCC earlier. Thus, full approval can now be delayed.Other companies seeking approval include BitGo, Paxos and Laser Digital of Nomura. There are also new entrants in the process who face increased scrutiny. This trend presents increasing interest towards regulated banking status.

Lawmakers too, such as Elizabeth Warren, have entered the debate. Previously, she demanded a stop on the same applications associated with crypto companies. Additionally, the topic has now been incorporated into broader debates about financial oversight.The ABA highlighted the necessity of more powerful oversight mechanisms prior to approvals. It raised issues of the risk of insolvency and how the regulators could act. Therefore, the group demanded a slow and cautious stance.

Industry Practice Claims

The association also cited questions around the way crypto companies make returns. It claimed that there are companies that can evade the restrictions by using related platforms. It also noted that more explicit rules are needed to resolve such practices. The petition is also indicative of increased tensions between traditional banks and crypto companies that seek to gain regulatory acceptance. It also underscores the persistent ambiguity with lawmakers still working on regulations regarding crypto bank activities.

• Katana (KAT) gains momentum from Upbit and Bithumb listings with KRW pairs.
• Katana Perps launch adds derivatives and deeper market utility.
• Traders should watch the support at $0.014 and the immediate resistance at $0.016.

Katana (KAT), the native token of the Katana Network, has seen an extraordinary 53% price surge today, largely fueled by major cryptocurrency exchange listings.

Upbit and Bithumb, two of South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, have added KAT, opening up direct KRW trading pairs for the token.

These listings have given Katana greater visibility in a market known for active retail participation.

South Korean investors often respond quickly to new token listings, and the addition of KRW trading pairs makes it easy for traders to engage with KAT.

This kind of exposure can amplify buying pressure and lead to sharp price moves, especially when combined with already strong market momentum.

The recent surge has also coincided with extremely high trading volumes.

KAT’s daily turnover has been several times its earlier average, signalling strong interest from traders and speculators.

Sustained volume is crucial for maintaining momentum. If volume remains high, KAT is likely to continue testing local highs.

Conversely, a sudden drop in trading activity could lead to sharp pullbacks.

Adding to the bullish narrative, Katana recently acquired IDEX to launch a native perpetual futures platform called Katana Perps.

By integrating derivatives trading directly into the ecosystem, Katana can capture more trading activity within its own network.

This move also brings professional liquidity providers and market makers into the token’s orbit, creating a more stable and deeper market.

Technical outlook

Overall, KAT is in a high-momentum phase driven by both exchange listings and real product development.

From a technical analysis perspective, KAT is currently hovering near its recent local high, and the immediate support level to watch is $0.014.

Holding above this level would suggest that bullish momentum remains intact and could pave the way for a retest of the local high around $0.016.

But if this support fails, traders should anticipate a move toward the next key support near $0.012.

Volume remains a crucial indicator in this environment.

Sustained daily volume above $100 million would confirm strong trader interest and reduce the likelihood of a sudden correction.

On the other hand, if volume drops below $50 million, it could signal that momentum is fading and that a pullback may be imminent.

The combination of exchange listings, high trading volumes, and a new derivatives platform provides KAT with both momentum and structural growth potential.

However, traders should be aware that these factors create opportunities but also increase the risk of sharp swings if interest wanes.

Bitcoin Slips as Geopolitical Signals Shift

• Bitcoin drops 1% as Trump signals faster end to US-Iran conflict timeline
• BTC trades near $70,700 while volatility rises amid geopolitical shifts
• Oil prices climb, offsetting crypto gains as tensions remain unresolved
• Iran rejects ceasefire terms, adding pressure to global financial markets
• Crypto derivatives show weakening momentum ahead of major options expiry

Bitcoin declined 1% during early Thursday trading, reflecting uncertainty from evolving geopolitical developments. The asset traded at $70,712, showing limited momentum within a narrow daily range. Meanwhile, traders reacted to reports of a potential shift in US foreign policy direction.

The US administration signaled an intention to shorten the ongoing conflict with Iran. This stance introduced mixed expectations across financial markets and increased short-term volatility. As a result, Bitcoin failed to sustain earlier gains despite recent bullish projections.

At the same time, trading volumes remained subdued, indicating weaker participation in the current market phase. Market activity reflected hesitation, especially as external risks continued to dominate sentiment. Consequently, Bitcoin moved sideways with a slight downward bias.

Oil Prices Rise as Conflict Dynamics Evolve

Oil prices moved higher as geopolitical tensions continued to influence supply expectations. The upward movement erased some gains previously seen in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. This shift highlighted the inverse reaction between commodities and digital assets.

Reports indicated that the US aimed to conclude the conflict within a defined timeframe. However, Iran rejected proposed ceasefire conditions and introduced its own demands. These developments prolonged uncertainty and supported oil price strength.

Additionally, the proposed conditions included sanctions removal and expanded regional control measures. Such demands complicated negotiations and extended the timeline for resolution. Therefore, energy markets maintained upward pressure amid unresolved tensions.

Derivatives Market Signals Weakening Momentum

Bitcoin derivatives data showed declining open interest over recent hours, signaling reduced market conviction. This drop aligned with broader uncertainty across financial markets. As a result, traders adjusted positions ahead of key expiry events.

Options data indicated that over $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts approach expiration. This large volume created expectations of heightened volatility in the near term. Consequently, short-term price movements remained sensitive to external triggers.

Meanwhile, projections from institutional analysts suggested a potential long-term upside for Bitcoin. However, current market behavior reflected caution due to geopolitical risks. Therefore, near-term sentiment remained mixed despite optimistic forecasts.

🚨 BITCOIN HAS JUST DROPPED BELOW $70,000

INSTITUTIONS HAVE STARTED SELLING, AND MOMENTUM IS FADING.

IF BITCOIN LOSES THE $69,000-$70,000 RANGE, THE DOWNTREND WILL SHARPLY ACCELERATE. 📉 pic.twitter.com/lWrwFCt3tC

— That Martini Guy ₿ (@MartiniGuyYT) March 26, 2026

Background and Broader Context

The US administration aimed to balance foreign policy priorities with domestic agendas. Reports indicated a focus on upcoming elections and legislative initiatives. This shift influenced decisions related to the conflict timeline.

At the same time, global markets responded quickly to any signals of escalation or de-escalation. Digital assets, commodities, and equities showed increased correlation during this period. As a result, geopolitical developments continued to shape market direction.

Overall, the situation remained fluid, with negotiations still uncertain and conditions unresolved. Market participants reacted to each update, causing frequent price adjustments. Consequently, volatility persisted across both traditional and digital asset classes.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new macro test as markets increasingly bet on the US entering recession in 2026.

Key points:

• Bitcoin could face a new challenge in the form of its first recession after the COVID-19 crash.

• US recession odds surge as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns over oil prices.

• Bitcoin’s high correlation with “extremely oversold” stocks continues.

Moody’s puts 12-month recession odds near 50%

Data highlighted this week by Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, shows recession odds nearing 50%.

Bitcoin’s next bull run could come courtesy of a US economic downturn, and market participants see the latter as more and more likely this year.

“Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate to 30%,” Adler noted on X.

Prediction traders agree, with US recession odds reaching 36% on Kalshi — the highest reading since September 2025.

The US-Iran war and its impact on global oil prices lie at the heart of the surge. Recent claims by both sides about dialogue to end hostilities and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz have caused confusion throughout risk-asset markets.

“That’s keeping upside pressure on oil prices, which is recently crossing a key threshold historically associated with recession,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic said that oil jumping 50% above its long-term trend, a phenomenon now playing out, “has been seen before or during nearly every recession over the past 50 years.”

“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more,” it added.

Major players echo those concerns, including Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock.

“We’ll have a global recession,” he told the BBC this week about the consequences of Iran staying a “threat” to the global economy, even if the war itself ended.

Bitcoin stays tied to “extremely oversold” stocks

Bitcoin has had little experience of recession in its lifespan of less than 20 years.

Related: Gold slides as traders eye sub-$50K BTC: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

In 2020, a US recession from February to April preceded a period of major BTC price upside after BTC/USD initially joined risk assets in a global crash in March.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s correlation to US stocks has become stronger this year, potentially increasing the potential for a relief bounce.

“While the uncertainty over inflation and the outlook for monetary are broadly weighing across the market, conditions are very favorable to see at least a short-term rally unfold,” Mosaic commented. 

“Various measures of investor sentiment and positioning are pointing to excessive bearishness in the market while breadth metrics are extending to extremely oversold levels.”