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Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours?

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Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours? - 1

Crypto markets are flashing deep stress signals as geopolitical tensions surrounding a potential U.S. strike on Iran intensify and liquidity continues to drain from the system.

Summary

  • The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 5, signaling extreme panic as geopolitical tensions around a potential U.S. strike on Iran intensify.
  • Bitcoin has dropped below key technical levels, while the broader crypto market has erased over $2.22 trillion — down more than 50% from its peak, marking one of the largest drawdowns in history.
  • Despite the selloff, shrinking USDT supply down over $3 billion in 60 days suggests liquidity contraction that has historically appeared near late-stage market bottoms.

Iran strike fears spill into crypto markets

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 5 — “Extreme Fear”, one of the lowest readings in years, showing panic-level sentiment. Historically, such extreme readings have only appeared during major market dislocations, including the 2020 COVID crash and the 2022 bear market lows.

The collapse in sentiment mirrors Bitcoin’s sharp drop below key technical levels, reinforcing the view that traders are positioning defensively amid geopolitical uncertainty.

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Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours? - 1

At the same time, prediction market Polymarket shows rising bets on possible U.S. military action in early March, with probabilities climbing steadily day by day, reflecting growing geopolitical uncertainty priced into markets.

Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours? - 2
Traders bet on when U.S. will strike Iran | Source: Polymarket

Meanwhile, price action mirrors the anxiety. Bitcoin has fallen sharply from recent highs and is trading well below its 50-day moving average, while the broader crypto market has shed more than $2.22 trillion, down over 50% from its peak.

Will crypto markets crash if US strikes Iran within hours? - 3
Bitcoin price performance | Source: Crypto. News

In a widely shared post, Coin Bureau warned that “CRYPTO MAY BE HEADING TOWARD ITS LARGEST CRASH EVER,” noting that the current drawdown is now the second-biggest dollar loss in history, just $60 billion shy of the all-time record.

Yet liquidity data suggests a more nuanced picture. Another Coin Bureau analysis highlighted that USDT supply has fallen by more than $3 billion in 60 days, a contraction last seen during the FTX collapse.

Historically, shrinking stablecoin supply signals capital leaving the market but similar conditions in 2022 marked Bitcoin’s cycle bottom.

Ultimately, while a potential U.S. strike on Iran could trigger another wave of short-term volatility, the data suggests markets may already be pricing in extreme risk. With sentiment at capitulation levels, over $2.22 trillion erased, and stablecoin liquidity contracting to levels previously seen near cycle lows, the conditions resemble late-stage selloffs more than the early phases of a collapse.

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Crypto World

Tally to Wind Down DAO Platform, Scraps Planned ICO

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Tally to Wind Down DAO Platform, Scraps Planned ICO

Decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) governance platform Tally is shutting down after five years of operations, citing a lack of sustainable business models for governance tooling in the crypto market. 

Tally co-founder and CEO Dennison Bertram said the company will begin winding down at the end of March. He added that the company is not moving forward with a planned initial coin offering (ICO), concluding that it could not confidently deliver on the expectations that would come with selling tokens to investors. 

Tally’s closure comes despite years of activity on its platform, which supported governance for hundreds of organizations and processed more than $1 billion in payments, according to Bertram. At its peak, the company said it helped secure up to $80 billion in value and served more than 1 million users.

Tally launched in 2021 as a software platform for on-chain organizations. According to startup intelligence platform Tracxn, the company raised a total of $15.5 million across three funding rounds. 

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Related: Vitalik Buterin proposes using AI to strengthen DAO governance

The shutdown reflects the challenges facing DAO-focused platforms after years of development and adoption. It highlights the pace of change in the industry, where even substantial achievements may prove insufficient to support a venture-backed business in DAO governance tooling.

Source: Tally

Industry reflects on DAO challenges amid Tally shutdown

Following the announcement, builders and operators across the ecosystem pointed to a broader reassessment of DAO governance, with some describing Tally’s closure as part of a wider shift in how coordination tools are being developed and monetized. 

Oku Trade CEO Getty Hill said DAO development has not met the expectations set during earlier growth phases.

Related: DAOs may need to ditch decentralization to court institutions

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“While stablecoins have achieved the greatest product-market fit in crypto, I still believe DAOs will ultimately get there, though maybe not for another 3-10 years,” he wrote. 

Meanwhile, Oasis Onchain founder Stefen Deleveaux described the shutdown as “the end of an era,” reflecting on a wave of early DAO tooling projects that emerged during the 2020–2021 cycle but struggled to sustain themselves over time.

Realms DAO chief technology officer Adrian Brzeziński pointed to the stats highlighted by Bertram, saying that the “hardest truth” in crypto infrastructure is that usage does not equate to revenue. “The next wave of governance won’t look like voting portals. It’ll look like capital coordination,” Brzeziński wrote. 

DAOs are “difficult” to operate

On March 11, Aave founder Stani Kulechov said DAOs, in their current form, are “extraordinarily difficult” to operate. He pointed to internal conflicts and proposals that can take weeks of forum posts, temperature checks and multiple votes to pass. 

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