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XRP Price Falls 30% as On-Chain Signals Point to Potential Bottom

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XRP Inflow to Binance

XRP (XRP) has fallen more than 30% over the past month, pressured by a broader market downturn that intensified amid escalating geopolitical tensions and renewed tariff concerns.

At the same time, realized losses have spiked, and exchange inflows have increased sharply. These on-chain signals suggest growing market stress for the altcoin. However, with capitulation metrics rising, the question is whether a potential bottom is forming.

XRP Struggles Amid Large Holder Transfers and Rising Realized Losses 

Large holder activity has heightened concern over XRP’s near-term price outlook. Analyst Darkfost noted that these holders transferred more than 31 million XRP to Binance in one day, amounting to about $45 million in potential sell pressure.

On-chain data showed that the bulk of these transfers originated from larger holder cohorts. Whale wallets holding over 1 million XRP accounted for 14.49 million XRP of the total inflow.

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Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million XRP contributed 14.236 million XRP. Smaller cohorts contributed comparatively modest amounts, including 2.9 million XRP from wallets holding 10,000 to 100,000 tokens.

XRP Inflow to Binance
XRP Inflow to Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

The concentration of inflows among large holders is noteworthy. Exchange flows of this size typically raise concerns about potential selling pressure, as transfers to centralized platforms may indicate that tokens are being positioned for possible liquidation. 

However, it is important to note that simple transfers to exchanges do not confirm that sales will occur. Tokens can remain idle on trading platforms for extended periods, be used as collateral, or be moved for internal rebalancing purposes. 

While the inflows increase the risk of near-term volatility, they do not guarantee immediate downside.

“Altogether, this represents a sudden potential sell-side pressure of nearly $45 million that warrants close monitoring. Should this selling pressure persist, XRP may struggle to recover from its ongoing correction in the near term,” the analyst wrote.

Meanwhile, the transfers coincide with growing stress among XRP holders. Data from Santiment shows that XRP’s realized losses have climbed to their highest level since 2022. 

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Such spikes typically occur when investors sell at prices below their cost basis, reflecting capitulation or panic-driven exits during periods of heightened volatility.

Further reinforcing the cautious outlook, institutional demand appears to be cooling. This is evidenced by the declining XRP ETF inflows. 

Even with strategic expansions and ecosystem development, XRP has struggled to decouple from the wider market weakness, suggesting that macro conditions continue to outweigh project-specific progress.

Is XRP Nearing a Bottom? On-Chain Data Points to Capitulation Phase

Despite the spike in XRP realized losses, Santiment noted that such developments serve as an “important price signal.” The post added that historically, these spikes often appear near market bottoms. 

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Santiment explained that extreme fear tends to peak before the price. Once selling pressure becomes exhausted, even modest new demand can drive a rebound. While this does not guarantee an immediate rally, it increases the probability of a relief bounce.

“When the previous weekly milestone of -1.93B in realized losses occurred 39 months ago, $XRP proceeded to jump +114% over the next 8 months,” the post read.

XRP Potential Bottom Signal
XRP Potential Bottom Signal. Source: Santiment

In addition, BeInCrypto recently highlighted that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is mirroring a setup last observed in July 2024. This was followed by a price rally.

That said, historical precedents should be interpreted cautiously. Market structure, liquidity conditions, and macroeconomic factors differ across cycles. 

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Circles $68,000 as Stocks Wobble on Iran War Rhetoric

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Bitcoin Circles $68,000 as Stocks Wobble on Iran War Rhetoric

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed near a key long-term trend line at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as markets waited for US-Iran war cues.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin and US stocks attempt to shrug off claims by US President Donald Trump that a “whole civilization will die” after his Iran deadline expires.

  • Oil eyes a rematch with multiyear highs as escalation fears take control.

  • Bitcoin traders see lower levels resulting from current indecision.

Bitcoin attempts to ignore Trump Iran comments

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action focusing on its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $68,300.

BTC/USD one-hour chart with 200-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Volatility briefly entered prior to the US trading session as President Donald Trump said that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” referring to his 8pm Eastern time deadline for a deal with Iran.

“I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social, while keeping full details sparse.

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Source: Truth Social

The post was accompanied by news of strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure on Kharg Island.

Despite this, US stocks managed to avoid major losses on the day, leading commentators to suggest that Iran rhetoric was all but fully priced in.

“Markets have become numb to the headlines,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted on X.

S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The day prior, trading company QCP Capital noted that the same geopolitical pattern had been playing out for weeks.

“While the economic and humanitarian consequences of escalation would be severe, particularly via energy market disruption, markets are increasingly discounting the immediacy of this risk,” it wrote in its latest “Market Color” analysis. 

QCP described stocks as “broadly stable,” with crypto showing “resilience.”

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“After several weeks of weekend escalation rhetoric followed by early-week de-escalation signals, markets are beginning to recognise and fade this pattern,” it continued.

“Despite approaching deadlines and rising rhetoric, crypto markets continue to exhibit resilience rather than panic.”

CFDs on WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

WTI crude oil nonetheless passed $116 per barrel on the day, coiling below its highest levels in nearly four years.

BTC price surfs liquidity walls

Commenting on Bitcoin and wider market trajectory, crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe suggested that an inflection point was coming.

Related: Bitcoin RSI ‘nearly perfectly’ copying end of 2022 bear market: Analysis

“Prime question for this is likely whether there will be a ceasefire in the Middle-East or not,” he told X followers. 

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“From a technical standpoint, it’s more likely that markets are turning downwards as the trend is clearly in that direction and (as I’ve mentioned earlier), sweeping the lows and grabbing that liquidity strengthens a potential reversal on the markets significantly.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe

Trader LP flagged overhead resistance making $72,000 a problematic hurdle to clear for bulls.

“Orderbook pressure showed strong buy pressure between 63–66K, which helped drive price toward the 70K region. However, sell pressure is now stepping in around 71–72K, acting as resistance and potentially capping price if it persists,” an X post read.

BTC price chart with liquidity data. Source: LP/X