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Iran ceasefire deal confirms what we’ve been saying for years: military might doesn’t work

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Iran ceasefire deal confirms what we’ve been saying for years: military might doesn’t work

What a disaster the war against Iran has been for Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran signed on June 17 has formally brought a halt to the devastating war. Yet, as the ink dries on the 14-point preliminary framework, the reality of the document stands in stark contrast to the grandiose, megalomaniac rhetoric that defined the start of the conflict.

Only a handful of analysts and scholars that I know of foresaw what is now unfolding, stressing the realities of Iran’s resilience in the face of international pressure for decades. I was one of them: back in 2012, I warned that there could be no military solution to curbing Iran’s nuclear programme and noted that the US not only knew this, but had warned Israel that this would be the case.

When Trump and Netanyahu launched the initial military campaign on February 28, the objective was explicitly stated: the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme, an end to Tehran’s support for regional proxies such as Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas – and regime change. But the text of the MoU reveals a profound pivot from those aims, at least as far as the White House is concerned.

Ultimately, the agreement marks the final collapse of Pax Americana in the Persian Gulf region and highlights the resilience of Iranian state sovereignty against external pressure. At the onset of the war, both Washington and Tel Aviv projected absolute confidence in their military capabilities.

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Following initial waves of brutal strikes and a campaign involving more than 900 targets, both leaders repeatedly asserted that the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities were fundamentally broken.

Trump regularly claimed that victory was just around the corner, maintaining – erroneously – that Iran had “nothing left in a military sense”. Weeks into the campaign, he declared that the US military would “destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground” until it was “totally”, again, obliterated.

Promising the Iranian public that their rulers would soon be gone, Trump insisted he was successfully steering the country toward “regime change”. As the first strikes landed on Iran, he called on the people to rise up and seize control of institutions. Netanyahu echoed these exact sentiments, framing the conflict as a definitive campaign to forcibly reshape the geopolitical architecture of the region.

But intelligence assessments and events on the ground quickly exposed these claims as foolish. Despite severe structural damage, Iran retained its strategic depth, adapting by moving equipment and launching retaliatory drone and missile strikes across the region.

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Rather than causing the regime to collapse, the external aggression resulted in a hardening of the state structure.

What’s in the deal

The terms of the MoU demonstrate that Washington was ultimately forced to negotiate with Tehran as an equal sovereign power, rather than a defeated adversary accepting terms of capitulation.

The agreement directly contradicts the initial war aims of the US-Israeli coalition across three major pillars. First, the framework explicitly binds the US to respect Iran’s territorial integrity and abstain from internal interference.

For an administration that spent months demanding regime change, this clause serves as a legal acknowledgment of the Islamic Republic’s permanence. It calls to mind the Algiers accords of 1981, when the US agreed to the unfreezing of Iranian assets and non-intervention in Iran’s affairs in return for 52 American hostages held since the revolution in 1979.

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Faced with the reality of an intact Iranian government, Trump reversed his rhetoric at the G7 summit. Claiming that “I never cared about regime change”, the US president pivoted to describing the new Iranian negotiators as “rational, strong, and smart”.

The MoU also mandates the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade and the implementation of emergency Treasury Department waivers to allow the resumption of Iranian crude oil exports. It also signals the unfreezing of up to US$100 billion (£75 billion) in restricted Iranian assets and the creation of a $300 billion international reconstruction fund for economic development.

From a critical perspective, this demonstrates that economic blockades are ultimately unsustainable when met with asymmetrical regional deterrence. Again, this should not have been new to the US government – it’s something that we have researched and written about for years.

As I argued as early as in 2011 on a flagship show on Al Jazeera, sanctions, gunboat diplomacy and even war don’t work. Iranian society is too connected and the economy and the state too agile. And, as we now know, Tehran’s threat to close down the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, should have been seen by Iran’s adversaries as a potent deterrent. Hopefully, decision-makers will learn their lessons from this ill-fated war.

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Indeed, perhaps the most notable aspect of the MoU is what it leaves out. There is no mention of Iran dismantling its ballistic missile programme. Nor is there a requirement for Iran to sever ties with its regional proxies. Additionally, the ceasefire explicitly covers “all fronts,” effectively mandating a halt to hostilities in Lebanon – a point of major friction for the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to maintain an Israeli security zone in the south.

Geopolitical shift

So this deal indicates a structural shift in regional politics. By launching a high-intensity campaign and failing to achieve either the destruction of Iran’s military capabilities or the toppling of its government, the US and Israel have inadvertently demonstrated the limits of their military power. No propaganda by lobbyists and diasporic pro-war monarchists can change the hard truths of scientific inquiry.

The world is transitioning rapidly into an increasingly non-polar, certainly post-western order. The MoU will stand as a historical marker where the rhetoric of superpower might surrendered to the practical necessity of diplomatic accommodation.

And yes: we’ve been predicting this for a long time, too.

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World Cup 2026: Iran to lodge complaint to Fifa over travel restrictions

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The Iran team line up before their 2-2 draw with New Zealand at the 2026 World Cup

Iran’s involvement in the World Cup has been plagued with uncertainty, linked to the war in the Middle East and related security concerns.

Fifa president Gianni Infantino visited the Iran team in the dressing room following the game against New Zealand as tensions continue.

Multiple “integral” members of their backroom staff were denied entry visas for the US while the FFIRI called on Fifa to “uphold the principles of neutrality, fairness, and established regulations” after their allocation of tickets was revoked on the eve of the tournament.

“The Iranian national football team agreed to these terms,” a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson told the BBC when asked for a response to Ghalenoei’s comments.

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Iran, who switched their base for the World Cup from Arizona in the US to Tijuana in Mexico amid the conflict in the Middle East, have two group games remaining and both are in the US.

They face Belgium in Los Angeles on 21 June (20:00 BST) and Egypt in Seattle on 27 June (04:00 BST).

Iran said they “needed to arrive in each host city two days before every match and return to its base camp the day after the game in order to achieve optimal technical and physical preparation” but “this request was not approved” for their game against New Zealand.

“The same situation has now been repeated ahead of Iran’s second match against Belgium,” added the FFIRI.

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“Given that the game will be played at 12:00pm local time in Los Angeles, the Football Federation of Iran requested that the team be allowed to travel to Los Angeles two days before the match.

“The aim was to provide sufficient time for players to adapt to the match conditions, complete their final training session, and finalise preparations.

“Despite the technical reasons presented by the federation, the request was once again denied.”

The presidents of the US and Iran have signed an initial peace deal aiming to end the war but Andrew Giuliani, the executive director of the White House Fifa Task Force, said that Iran knew the situation they faced when it came to their matches.

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“The team will be allowed to come in, match day minus one, so the day before the match,” Giuliani told CBS News.

“They’ll be asked to leave the day that the match wraps up, so the evening of the match. And they’ll be able to do that again in Los Angeles.”

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Bruno Fernandes targeted as Cristiano Ronaldo’s family get involved in World Cup row

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Manchester Evening News

Portugal were held to a 1-1 draw by DR Congo in their World Cup 2026 opener on Wednesday, with Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo both enduring frustrating afternoons for the European giants

Cristiano Ronaldo’s sister Katia Aveiro has reacted to Bruno Fernandes’ performance in Portugal’s draw with DR Congo in their World Cup opener. The Manchester United midfielder featured for the entire match alongside Ronaldo but they were forced to settle for a point as their campaign got off to a disappointing start.

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Katia ‘liked’ an Instagram post from a Brazilian account commenting on the United skipper’s showing for his nation. Roberto Martinez’s team endured frustration despite Joao Neves’ sixth-minute header as Newcastle United star Yoane Wissa equalised. Despite controlling 75 per cent of possession, only three efforts were directed on target – leaving Ronaldo without any attempts of his own.

Fernandes also endured a lacklustre outing. Featuring a picture of the United star, the post read: “This one here is the Raphinha for Portugal. Too much popcorn for the national team.”

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It follows a strange surge of abuse directed towards Portuguese players and those close to them with Neves among those suffering the brunt of an online barrage. The Paris Saint-Germain star’s Instagram comments were hijacked by angry Ronaldo supporters in light of his post-match comments.

He said: “We know what Cristiano (Ronaldo) has done for this national team and for the world of football.

“But right now, he is one of us. He is no different. He is an additional player to help and contribute to Portugal’s performance just like all of us.

“He played very well, the whole team had an excellent match. We are united. And in the long term, that’s what will make the difference. It’s not this draw that should ruin our morale. On the contrary, this result will only strengthen us further to do better in the upcoming matches.”

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Vitinha and Pedro Neto have also seen their comments sections taken over with supporters demanding Ronaldo shown more respect. It has even been suggested that Neves’ partner has also had her social media being bombarded by angry supporters of the five-time Ballon d’Or winner.

Ronaldo also faced criticism for his limited impact during the fixture, recording just 25 touches against Congo. Yet, he remained on the pitch for the duration of the match.

One Portugal supporter wrote on X: “Ronaldo just gets in the way, and only those who don’t want to see it won’t. It’s ridiculous that he has a guaranteed place in the national team.”

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Another added: “Ronaldo just sits in the box waiting for a miracle ball that never arrives.”

With seven minutes left on the clock, Martinez chose to introduce Goncalo Ramos, withdrawing Vitinha – a move that drew criticism from former England striker Chris Sutton.

“He [Martinez] is scared to take him off,” Sutton told BBC Radio 5 Live. “He is not the manager. He [Ronaldo] might score the winner, but the game passed him by.

“He is a brilliant player. He was once the playmaker, but now he is the poacher. He is not only the poacher, but he runs the estate. I don’t understand some of his management. Cristiano Ronaldo was on the periphery and Martinez has to be brave enough to be the manager.”

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Martinez, meanwhile, defended the substitution by arguing it would have made little sense to remove the goalscorer while Portugal were pushing for a winner.

“We were finding it difficult because they were playing in a back six,” Martinez hit back. “And in a situation like that, you can use his qualities.

“It makes no sense to get a player like Cristiano out of the game where you need goals. The straight line is not the quickest way.

“The way he attracts defenders and uses space is valuable. When you need goals, you need a player like Cristiano Ronaldo on the pitch.”

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Taking to Instagram following the final whistle, the Portugal icon wrote: “This was not the start we wanted but this is far from being over. Heads held high and focus on the next game.”

Portugal will be keen to respond to the disappointing outcome when they take on Uzbekistan on Tuesday (6pm). Colombia, meanwhile, one of Portugal’s group rivals, defeated Uzbekistan 3-1 and currently lead Group K.

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Makerfield by-election results LIVE as Andy Burnham smashes Reform paving way for leadership challenge and Nigel Farage hits out

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Andy Burnham as Prime Minister: What would it mean for London?

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Andy Burnham as Prime Minister: What would it mean for London?

The now former Greater Manchester Mayor beat Reform UK’s candidate Robert Kenyon by a majority of 9,231, nearly 4,000 more than Labour achieved at the 2024 general election.

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Is Australia’s social media ban for under 16s working?

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Is Australia’s social media ban for under 16s working?

When Australia banned under 16-year-olds from using social media in December 2025, it became a test case for a policy now being pursued by governments around the world.

Six months on, the UK has announced plans to introduce its own social media ban in 2027, with France, Malaysia, Indonesia and Greece among other countries pursuing similar bans.

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So how’s it going in Australia? Have the teenagers emerged from a phone-lit glow to reengage in the real world? And what kind of difference is it having on their mental health?

In this episode of The Conversation Weekly, we speak to Susan Sawyer, a professor of adolescent mental health at the University of Melbourne, who is running a number of ongoing studies examining the way young people and their parents are reacting to Australia’s ban.

Sawyer says that when the ban was first introduced, she was cynical about the government’s ability to get young people off social media – and it has been difficult. In a compliance report released in March 2026, Australia’s eSafety Commission said many young people were still able to access social media, and it launched investigations into five technology companies it feels haven’t done enough to comply with the ban.

Yet while she used to think of the ban as a blunt instrument, Sawyer says her views are changing. “We’re seeing that conversations are shifting from whether social media negatively affects young people or to what extent or in what ways, to rather thinking about what age might be a more appropriate age for young people to first gain access to social media,” says Sawyer.

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And that is born out by some of Sawyer’s research. In a recent poll of more than 2,000 parents of 0- to 17-year-olds, just under 40% said the law had changed their view on when children should first have their social media accounts and “overwhelmingly, that’s now a higher age”, she says.

Listen to Sawyer on The Conversation Weekly podcast, and read an article she’s written about her latest research on the impact of high social media use on mental health.

This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Gemma Ware, Katie Flood and Mend Mariwany. Mixing by Eleanor Brezzi and theme music by Neeta Sarl.

Newsclips in this episode from pmaulinauskasmp, BBC News and 9News Australia.

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Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here. A transcript of this episode is available via the Apple Podcasts or Spotify apps.

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Cotswolds town named among top UK places to visit in 2026 – not Castle Combe or Bibury

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Daily Mirror

The “overlooked” town has been named one of the top places to visit in the UK for 2026, crowning the historic Cotswolds town ahead of overrun tourist hotspots like Bibury and Bourton-on-the-Water

The best place to visit in the Cotswolds has been revealed – and it’s not the usual suspects like Chipping Campden, Bibury or Bourton-on-the-Water.

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There’s an abundance of stunning beauty spots scattered across the UK, with rugged landscapes, peaceful golden beaches, vibrant and quirky towns, craggy rocks and cliffs, vast woodlands, rolling green hills, and plenty more besides.

For a relatively small country, there’s a rich variety of diverse destinations to pick from – whether you fancy exploring the peaceful glacial lakes and fells of the Lake District, or the seemingly endless dramatic coastlines of Scotland, the history and intrigue of sites like the Mourne Wall in Northern Ireland, or the impressive peaks of Eryri/Snowdonia in Wales; there’s no shortage of choices.

This is equally true when it comes to the varied towns scattered throughout the UK, from sleepy fishing villages and bustling market towns, to picturesque places that offer a glimpse into the past, and much more.

If you’re keen to embark on a “staycation” in the UK and feel overwhelmed at the prospect of deciding where to go, you’re in luck.

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Time Out has issued a round-up of “the best places to go in the UK in 2026” – and a Gloucestershire town has made the cut. Widely celebrated as the “Capital of the Cotswolds”, the historic market town of Cirencester has claimed fifth place on a national list.

Time Out said: “When it comes to ‘where to travel in the UK’, you might think the Cotswolds has been done to death. Actually, it hasn’t. In fact, only teeny tiny portions of the region tend to get all the love.”

The publication described Cirencester as “often-overlooked” and championed the town – the largest in the region – for being “much better equipped for tourism” than overcrowded destinations such as Bibury.

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Cirencester boasts a seamless fusion of Roman heritage with a vibrant independent shopping scene – particularly within the historic Corn Hall and Arcade – alongside stunning green spaces, including Cirencester Park. Home to the 9th Earl and Countess Bathurst, the park is a haven for deer and horses alike.

History enthusiasts will be in their element at the award-winning Corinium Museum, which houses an impressive Roman collection; “one of the largest collections of Romano-British antiquities extensively from Corinium”.

Featuring mosaics, sculptures, coins and much more, the fully accessible venue also includes a gift shop, café, and the Cirencester Visitor Information Centre.

The town is equally well-stocked with stunning historic buildings and characterful pubs that are well worth exploring.

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Of summer visits, Time Out noted: “Heading here in summer? Go for a dip in the Cirencester Open Air Swimming Pool, a beautiful old spot for a swim surrounded by old buildings.

“It’s a slice of history all by itself – around since 1869, making it one of the oldest in the country.”

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Andy Burnham’s speech in full after landslide victory in Makerfield by-election

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Andy Burnham’s speech in full after landslide victory in Makerfield by-election

Labour’s Andy Burnham has claimed a landslide victory in the crucial Makerfield by-election.

He is now set to return to Westminster and is likely to officially challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the party leadership.

Allies of Mr Burnham are calling on Sir Keir to hand over the keys to No 10, but the prime minister has repeatedly insisted that he has no intention of walking away.

Speaking after the results were counted, Mr Burnham hailed his victory as a “turning point” and said that Labour has a “final chance to change”.

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Here is Mr Burnham’s victory speech, in full.

Labour party candidate Andy Burnham is declared the winner of the Makerfield by-election which was triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons
Labour party candidate Andy Burnham is declared the winner of the Makerfield by-election which was triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons (PA Wire)

“Everyone knows that politics isn’t working.

“Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be. Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.

“From here on I will give everything I have got to make it so. To ensure the name Makerfield is forever synonymous with bringing about the change this country needs, bringing back something we’ve lost – hope – hope for the future.

“I am proud that this place has shone in the world’s spotlight for the last few weeks and the warmth, humour and hospitality of its people has been on show for all to see. It will never be a stepping stone to me, but instead will be my touchstone.

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“A Makerfield test at the heart of British politics will make sure that the places Westminster has neglected will now get fairness.

“I spoke in the campaign about the need to change politics. I promised to lead by example, from the front, as your Member of Parliament.

“I know people who traditionally vote for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and perhaps more recently for Reform UK, have given me their support in this election. I will always have respect to them for that. And out of respect for them, I will always take a place-first, rather than a party-first, approach and I will focus on problem-solving rather than point-scoring.

“And I will work hard after this by-election to heal the divisions of this campaign. And let it be really understood that I will be your MP, however you voted.

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“When this borough went to the polls in May, it made a loud cry for change. In this campaign we have begun to answer that.

“But I do say to my own party: this is a final chance to change. This is what people said directly to me on the hundreds of doorsteps that I stood on. We must hear it, we must act upon it and we must get it right. There will be no second chance.

“But there is a chance now from this result tonight to build a new politics based on unity and hope. Turning away from the path that takes us to a divided, dark politics of the kind we see in the United States.

“We must now take this path and put this country back on the right path, and bring people back together and get things working properly again.

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“It is with some sadness that this result brings an end to my wonderful nine years as mayor of Greater Manchester.

“This city region has given so much to me. And it is a wrench to leave the job I love. But I am not leaving the service of Greater Manchester. I’ve always been clear that it can’t achieve everything it should be and we can’t close the north-south divide, and we can’t make all the great English cities be what they should be without big change at the national level.

“I always knew one day I would seek to go back to Westminster to complete that unfinished business so that Makerfield and Greater Manchester, and the north of England, can fulfil their potential.

“This result will bring about a country that works fairly for everywhere and for everybody.

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“People here have voted for change. They have voted for more power for the North and everywhere forgotten by Westminster. They have voted for hope. Now, let’s give that back to them.”

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Major train disruption LIVE as Bolton and Wigan lines blocked in serious incident

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Premier League fixture release LIVE: Arsenal, Chelsea and more learn 2026-27 match schedules

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Premier League fixture release LIVE: Arsenal, Chelsea and more learn 2026-27 match schedules

With Arsenal top of the tree, and a number clubs facing huge changes, this season is one of the more unpredictable in recent memory. Throw in Coventry City’s return after 25 years, helmed by manager Frank Lampard, it is primed to be another enthralling and intriguing 10 months of Premier League action. Follow the fixture release live below from 10am BST!

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Israeli military fighting in southern Lebanon as US-Iran talks postponed

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Israeli military fighting in southern Lebanon as US-Iran talks postponed

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s military said Friday its forces struck targets throughout southern Lebanon overnight as Hezbollah reported intense fighting in the area, threatening the nascent agreement between Iran and the United States to end their war.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported at least 16 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes, which the Israeli military said were ongoing. Israel, meantime, said four of its soldiers had been killed in fighting in southern Lebanon, including a lieutenant colonel.

Continued fighting in Lebanon could unravel the newly signed deal, which calls for an immediate halt to military operations “on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” where Israel has been battling the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group, and for ensuring Lebanon’s “territorial integrity and sovereignty.”

The deal aims to end the war and has reopened the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, while bringing the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table over Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran’s stranglehold on the strait had all but stopped the flow of oil through the key waterway.

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U.S. President Donald Trump said he signed the agreement to avoid “economic catastrophe” in the U.S., after the war caused oil prices to skyrocket, made financial markets skittish and fueled inflation. After the signing of the agreement, more than 12.5 million barrels of oil were shipped through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday night, the U.S. said.

US and Israel at odds over conflict in Lebanon

Israel and Hezbollah are not parties to the agreement. Iran insists Israel must withdraw from the large swath of southern Lebanon it is occupying, but the wording of the interim deal doesn’t explicitly require that.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces elections later this year, has refused to withdraw, saying Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon until the threat from Hezbollah has been eliminated.

Trump, meantime, has been openly critical of Netanyahu’s recent moves, saying the day before the agreement with Iran was signed that “without the U.S. there would be no Israel.”

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“Without me, there would be no Israel because no other president was willing to do what I did — I have had a great relationship with Bibi,” Trump said, using a nickname for Netanyahu. “Now Bibi has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon.”

The renewed Israeli attacks in Lebanon came as planned talks in Switzerland between Iran and the United States over their efforts to reach a permanent end to the Iran war were delayed.

Vance delays trip to Switzerland as talks postponed

U.S. Vice President JD Vance on Thursday put off his trip to Switzerland where he had been set to lead the talks. The White House blamed logistical issues, but the announcement came after a report from Al-Mayadeen, a pan-Arab satellite channel that is politically allied to Hezbollah, said that Iran was delaying sending its delegation to Switzerland over Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon.

Trump signed the initial pact with Iran on Wednesday while dining with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Palace of Versailles, which took immediate effect.

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Following the signing, the U.S. said it had lifted its blockade, allowing oil tankers to begin freely moving through the Strait of Hormuz after months of being unable to use the critical channel. Still, the tentative agreement has drawn sharp criticism from some in the U.S. — including a few congressional Republicans — who worry Washington ceded too much to Iran with relief from sanctions and a potential $300 billion fund to help with rebuilding.

In Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei seemed to endorse direct negotiations, saying in a statement on state media that “it is obvious that the face-to-face negotiations that will be held in the future will not mean accepting the enemy’s opinion.”

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It was Khamenei’s first reaction to the agreement, and it was interpreted as a shift in Iran’s approach. Hard-liners, especially Khamenei’s father, the previous supreme leader, have long opposed direct talks, especially after the U.S. pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers.

The supreme leader has not been seen in public since he was wounded in a strike at the start of the war.

US defends deal with Iran

Vance, who was initially personally skeptical of the U.S. going to war with Iran, has increasingly become the administration’s face of the conflict and has been outspoken in defending the deal.

On Thursday, he took the relatively unusual step of appearing at the White House to defend the initial deal to extend the ceasefire 60 days and allow for more negotiating — arguing that while it offers concessions, Iran first has to comply with U.S. demands.

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Vance also offered a blunt warning to Israel, saying Trump was “the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time.”

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Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates and Rising reported from Bangkok. Associated Press writer Bassem Mroue in Beirut contributed to this story.

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