Britain cannot afford to become complacent about the threat posed by Russia as Vladimir Putin has already proved his willingness to strike inside this country, according to Western officials.
Their chilling warning came amid fury over Chancellor John Healey’s failure to commit to spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence by 2030 – a demand he made when he quit Sir Keir Starmer’s government in June.
In a week when Mr Putin’s spokespersons have repeatedly warned Britain faces serious consequences for stepping up its support for Ukraine, officials warned that the Russian President’s appetite for ordering secret and deadly operations inside the UK is ‘very clear’.
Officials insisted the UK must remain on high alert for sabotage missions conducted by Russian agents or proxies hired by the Kremlin.
While there is also the threat of a miscalculation by Russia prompting a direct engagement with Britain’s armed forces.
Vladimir Putin is under increased pressure within Russia over the conflict in Ukraine and could strike inside countries supporting his enemy, including Britain, security officials have warned.
Officials described how Mr Putin is committed to destabilising states that support Ukraine, scaring politicians and populations into accepting his territorial demands.
In recent days the Kremlin has accused Prime Minister Andy Burnham of ‘playing with fire’ and of involving Britain directly in the conflict.
While a stalemate on the battlefield in Ukraine has led Mr Putin to escalate the conflict in other ways.
Officials said: ‘Putin is not scaling back any of his objectives while his hostile rhetoric is consistent with military doctrine and is intended to frighten adversaries.
‘Russia’s appetite to conduct hybrid operations is very clear, including sabotage and cyber. Though our assessment remains Putin wants to avoid a direct confrontation with NATO , there is a risk of miscalculation.
‘Russia is attempting to create a disunited Europe. The war has escalated through the deep strikes Russia has conducted on civilian infrastructure and Ukraine hitting Russian logistics facilities.
‘Relations between UK and Russia are at a very low ebb, though Russia has denied claims that it is downgrading relations. Russian propaganda seeks to undermine support for Ukraine.’
Despite resigning from his post as Defence Secretary in June over the government’s defence spending failures, Chancellor John Healey has dropped a key pledge for the UK to invest 3 per cent of GDP in the armed forces by 2030.
Officials cited the poisoning of Russian defector Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006 and the attempted murder by poisoning of Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018 as proof of Russia’s willingness to launch attacks on the territory of its enemies.
Russia is also thought to be capable of sabotage operations inside Britain, such as targeting defence manufacturers providing weapons for Ukraine.
Considering those capabilities, officials said it was imperative that this country was not complacent about its security.
They also insisted that, despite Russian claims this week, the UK is not escalating the conflict.
Rather, licencing Ukraine to produce British-designed cruise missiles and entering into unprecedented agreements around new technologies such as Artificial Intelligence merely represented a continuation of this country’s support.
But the crescendo of rhetoric emerging from Moscow has suggested the Russians are rattled by Britain’s solidarity with Ukraine at a time when internal pressure is mounting on Mr Putin.
According to officials, the President’s popularity ratings are plummeting as Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure cause petrol prices to rise.
A crackdown on internet usage and fears of a further mobilisation of Russian civilians are also understood to have affected Mr Putin’s popularity.
Officials predicted Mr Putin will attempt to freeze Ukrainians into submission this winter by destroying their power stations and energy infrastructure.
The emphasis on civilian targets comes as Russia’s ground forces continue to incur huge losses – approaching 1.5 million casualties since the invasion in 2022 – which can no longer be met by recruiting.
Western officials have calculated that, month by month, the numerical gap between killed and wounded Russian troops and recruits sent to the frontline is 6,000.
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