Connect with us
DAPA Banner
DAPA Coin
DAPA
COIN PAYMENT ASSET
PRIVACY · BLOCKDAG · HOMOMORPHIC ENCRYPTION · RUST
ElGamal Encrypted MINE DAPA
🚫 GENESIS SOLD OUT
DAPAPAY COMING

NewsBeat

Report published on major Fylingdales Moor/Langdale End fire

Published

on

Report published on major Fylingdales Moor/Langdale End fire

The report provides a clear review of how last year’s Fylingdales Moor/Langdale End wildfire was handled, based on operational data, decision records and feedback from staff involved.

The wildfire happened in summer 2025 and required a long, coordinated response involving many organisations working together. At its peak, it affected a large area (over 20km) of moorland and forest.

The report provides a clear review of how last year’s Fylingdales Moor/Langdale End wildfire was handled, based on operational data, decision records and feedback from staff involved.

The incident was particularly complex as the fire occurred in a remote area with limited water supplies and difficult access.

Parts of the site had previously been used as a military training range, meaning crews also had to work around the risk of unexploded ordnance.

Advertisement

Despite these challenges, there was no loss of life, no serious injuries and no damage to homes. Critical infrastructure at RAF Fylingdales was also successfully protected.

The report highlights several key strengths, including teamwork between more than 30 partner organisations, successful protection of communities, homes and infrastructure and clear command structures and use of specialist wildfire expertise

It also sets out where improvements can be made, including enhancing wildfire pre-planning and sharing of wildfire and other risk information, strengthening resilience for long-running incidents

and developing scalable welfare and support for staff over extended periods

Advertisement

(Image: North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service)

Chief Fire Officer Jonathan Dyson said: “I would like to take this opportunity to again thank our staff, partner agencies, other fire and rescue services, landowners and farmers and local communities for the support they provided both during the incident and since.

“This debrief provides a clear account of our response to one of the most significant wildfire incidents we have faced. It highlights what worked well, but also where we need to improve, so we can continue to strengthen how we prepare for and respond to incidents of this scale.

“Since the incident, we have already taken steps to strengthen our safety messaging working more closely with partners. We have also improved our ability to operate in remote areas by developing new water supply arrangements with farmers and we are working with landowners and partners through a North Yorkshire Fire Operations Group to improve coordination and shared understanding of wildfire risk.

“The remaining areas identified in the debrief will be taken forward through a structured improvement programme to ensure learning is fully embedded and put into practice.”

Advertisement

David Skaith, Mayor of York and North Yorkshire said: “The Langdale wildfire was a defining moment for our region, highlighting both the scale of the challenge we face and the importance of being prepared for it.

“Jo and I have spoken to businesses and landowners in the area and understand the impact they still face. This was a truly North Yorkshire response and I will always be in awe of the bravery and commitment of our firefighters, farmers, landowners and everyone that came together to tackle this unprecedented incident. We are seeing the impact of more extreme weather in the countryside, our communities, and our economy. Incidents like this reinforce the need to think long-term about resilience, how we manage our land, how we support our emergency services, and how we work together to reduce risk.

(Image: North Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service)

“This debrief helps build that bigger picture. It’s not just about learning from one incident, but about shaping how we respond to a changing environment. I will continue to work with partners and government to ensure North Yorkshire has the recognition and investment it needs to meet these challenges head-on.”

Jo Coles, Deputy mayor for policing, fire and crime said: “This was one of the most significant incidents North Yorkshire Fire and Rescue Service has ever faced, and I want to once again recognise the extraordinary efforts of fire fighters, partners such as farmers and landowners as well as the local community whose combined effort was instrumental in tackling this extraordinary fire. It’s vital that lessons are learned following an incident on this scale so that we can improve the prevention and protection work that will keep people safe from future risks across the county – this debrief is a crucial part of that process. The work to improve prevention of future wildfires is already underway and I will continue work closely with Mayor David Skaith to hold the fire and rescue service to account for those changes on behalf of the public.”

Advertisement

The report can be read in full at Fylingdales Moor/Langdale Wildfire – North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

NewsBeat

London Marathon to be held over two days in special one-off event in 2027

Published

on

Runners cross the finish line at the London Marathon

The London Marathon will be held across two days in a special one-off edition of the event in 2027.

Organisers confirmed earlier this year that they were exploring ways to enable more people to take part, after a record 1.33 million people entered the ballot for next year’s event.

The two events – on Saturday, 24 and Sunday, 25 April – will allow 100,000 people to take part in the London Marathon in 2027, effectively doubling the chances of success for those who entered the ballot.

The move is also expected to raise more than £150m for charities and provide a £400m boost to the UK economy, according to Hugh Brasher, chief executive of London Marathon Events (LME).

Advertisement

Everyone who applied to take part next year will be entered into a ballot for both the Saturday and Sunday, with the ballot results announced in early July.

“The 2027 London Marathon Double is our most ambitious evolution to date – a once-in-a-generation one-time-only reimagining of what a marathon and city-wide celebration of activity can be,” said Brasher.

“By expanding to 100,000 runners across two days, we’re opening the door for more people, more charities and more communities to take part in the world’s greatest marathon. We believe that more than £150m can be raised for good causes and the UK economy will have a £400m social and economic benefit.

“We are grateful for the vision and support of the Mayor of London, the councils on the route, the emergency services, and all the stakeholders involved who have given their support to enable this world first event to be held for London and the UK.”

Advertisement

Sadiq Khan, the Mayor of London, said: “London is the sporting capital of the world and I am delighted that, for one year only in 2027, the world famous London Marathon will expand into a two-day event.

“The London Marathon showcases the very best of our capital and we will continue working closely with London Marathon Events and our partners to ensure appropriate measures are in place for the entire weekend as we build a better, more prosperous London for everyone.”

A total of 1,338,544 people applied for the 2027 London Marathon, breaking the record of 1,133,813 applicants for the 2026 event.

The London Marathon had a record 59,830 finishers in 2026 and was the biggest annual one-day fundraising event in the world, with more than £90m raised to date for charity by 2026 participants.

Advertisement

History was also made on the course at this year’s event, as Kenya’s Sabastian Sawe became the first athlete to run a sub-two-hour marathon in a competitive race.

Brasher has remained adamant that the expanded two-day event will be for one year only, following what he described as an “astonishing total of applicants” hoping to take part in 2027.

He told BBC Sport the two-day event has been nine years in the making, but after the initial idea was formed in 2017, with the intention to hold it in 2020, they failed to gain permission.

The plan is for the elite women, elite female para-athletes, championship and ‘good for age’ women to lead the mass event one day, with the elite men, elite male para-athletes, championship and ‘good for age’ men leading the mass event on the other.

Advertisement

However, London Marathon organisers said all format details will be confirmed in the coming months.

All 100,000 participants across the two days will run on the normal London Marathon route from Greenwich to Westminster.

Brasher clarified to the BBC that a ballot draw will first be held for the Sunday – the day on which the marathon is normally held – before a second draw takes place for the Saturday.

The Mini London Marathon will be held on the Friday, with more than 20,000 young participants.

Advertisement

Organisers say all additional income generated by the two-day format will be distributed by the London Marathon Foundation to projects that inspire activity for children and young people across London and the UK.

Source link

Continue Reading

NewsBeat

Jobs adverts increase for six professions – full list

Published

on

Wales Online

There were 1.6million jobs being advertised, according to the latest data

Occupations which saw an increase in job adverts in recent weeks included driving instructors, dental practitioners and welfare and housing staff, new research suggests. Recruiters said jobs for chefs, catering and bar managers and sports and leisure assistants also increased.

Job adverts with the biggest fall included exam invigilators, nannies and au pairs, said the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC). Its research found there were more than 1.6 million jobs being advertised in May, slightly up on the previous month.

Advertisement

REC chief membership and innovation officer Maxine Bligh said: “Any sign of an Iran–US agreement will ease one of the global pressures holding back hiring and investment. But domestic political uncertainty and looming employment law changes still leave many firms without the confidence they need to accelerate recruitment.

“We are likely to see some growth in the job market, but not at full speed, with many businesses continuing to rely on temporary staff until the outlook becomes clearer.”

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

NewsBeat

Michael Carrick already has first Man Utd fixture headache with nine stars at risk

Published

on

Daily Mirror

The Premier League 2026 fixture list is set to be released on Friday morning and Manchester United could have to make do without some big names for their opening game

Excitement is mounting among Manchester United supporters ahead of the Premier League fixture release on Friday morning, with the schedule poised to provide the first look at life under new permanent manager Michael Carrick. The Old Trafford faithful are optimistic about a successful campaign after Carrick surpassed expectations last term.

Advertisement

Appointed on an interim basis in January following the exit of Ruben Amorim, the former United midfield legend steered the side to a third-place finish in the Premier League, delivering a return to the Champions League for the first time since 2023. However, Carrick may face an early selection dilemma, with several first-team stars in danger of being unavailable for the opening match of the campaign.

The issue stems from the FIFA World Cup 2026, which got underway in spectacular fashion in North America last week. The extended six-week tournament will reach its climax with the final in New Jersey on July 19, just over a month before the first round of Premier League fixtures begins on August 22.

FOLLOW OUR MAN UTD FB PAGE! Latest United news and more on our dedicated Facebook page

That date has been delayed to allow players additional recovery time following the World Cup. However, those competing in the latter stages of the competition are still unlikely to be completely rejuvenated before needing to get back into shape for the new season.

Advertisement

The situation is made worse by the fact the World Cup kicked off shortly after the domestic campaign concluded, meaning United stars selected by their nations went straight into pre-tournament training camps. The predicament could leave Carrick with little option but to rest some of his biggest names at the start of the season – especially if they reach the final.

United have plenty of representation in the US, Canada and Mexico, and that includes nine important players who could go deep into the tournament. A final between England and Portugal could prove particularly problematic for Carrick and his coaching staff, with four players potentially involved.

Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Dalot are in the Portugal squad, while Kobbie Mainoo and outcast Marcus Rashford are representing England. Every other United player at the tournament is the sole representative of the club in their respective national side.

Key United players at World Cup 2026:

Matheus Cunha – Brazil

Diogo Dalot, Bruno Fernandes – Portugal

Amad – Ivory Coast

Advertisement

Senne Lammens – Belgium

Kobbie Mainoo, Marcus Rashford – England

Noussair Mazraoui – Morocco

Lisandro Martinez – Argentina

Advertisement

Join our new MAN UTD WhatsApp community and receive your daily dose of Manchester United content from Mirror Football. We also treat our community members to special offers, promotions, and adverts from us and our partners. If you don’t like our community, you can check out any time you like. If you’re curious, you can read our Privacy Notice.

Upgrade your World Cup TV setup with the Sky Glass ‘designed for football’

This article contains affiliate links, we will receive a commission on any sales we generate from it. Learn more
Content Image

from £4.50

Sky

Get the deal here

Sky is knocking 20% off its entire range of Glass TVs to mark the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Until June 17, shoppers can upgrade to the Sky smart TV that’s ‘designed for football’ from £4.50 per month when taken alongside a Sky TV and Netflix package.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

NewsBeat

Transfer news LIVE: Man Utd eye World Cup ace, ‘monster’ Liverpool offer, Arsenal latest

Published

on

Daily Mirror

Manchester United are considering a move Croatia midfielder Martin Baturina. The silky Como star stuck himself in the shop window with a fine equalising goal for the Croatians against England.

Now according to Sky Sport in Italy, the former Dinamo Zagreb star has become a transfer target for United, who are looking to bulk up their midfield department this summer. In his first season at Como under Cesc Fabregas, he contributed six goals and three assists in 29 Serie A appearances under the ex-Chelsea midfielder.

Baturina also proved to be somewhat of a Swiss army knife by featuring as a false nine, as a left-winger, as an attacking midfielder and as a deeper-lying playmaker for Fabregas.

Baturina starred for Croatia against England(Image: Getty Images)

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

NewsBeat

Cambridgeshire farm shop supporting adults with disabilities to close as supporters ‘dismayed’

Published

on

Cambridgeshire Live

The service has been described as a ‘community asset’

Cambridge locals have been left “dismayed” after an NHS trust confirmed the closure of a “community asset” that supports adults with learning disabilities. Darwin Nurseries and Farm Shop in Teversham, will close within the next two years, according to the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust.

Advertisement

The trust said that in a “challenging financial environment” with “rising site costs” it has “needed to prioritise its limited resources towards core NHS services”. The trust will not extend its contract at Darwin Nurseries and Farm Shop beyond its conclusion in April 2028.

Adults with learning disabilities and mental health challenges have worked in the shop, and helped with farming, gardening, and taking care of animals at the site, for more than 25 years.

In a statement by the trust, a spokesperson said: “We are proud that Darwin Nurseries and Farm Shop has made a valued and lasting contribution to people’s lives in our local community. In a challenging financial environment with rising site costs, the Trust has needed to prioritise its limited resources towards core NHS services.”

Councillor Matthew Morgan said the service is a “community asset that is very dear to many village residents, and the principle of helping individuals with learning disabilities and autism to work, whilst providing genuinely good, hardy plants is very well loved”.

Advertisement

He said he is hoping to speak with the trust and Cambridgeshire County Council officers to understand the “rationale” behind the decision. Alternatively, he hopes they can ensure there are other provisions for the workers affected.

A spokesperson for Teversham Action Group (TAG) said they are aware that many people have been “upset and dismayed” by the announcement. The trust added it would “continue to work with Cambridgeshire County Council to ensure continuity of care for all individuals who attend the service”.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

NewsBeat

Iran ceasefire deal confirms what we’ve been saying for years: military might doesn’t work

Published

on

Iran ceasefire deal confirms what we’ve been saying for years: military might doesn’t work

What a disaster the war against Iran has been for Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran signed on June 17 has formally brought a halt to the devastating war. Yet, as the ink dries on the 14-point preliminary framework, the reality of the document stands in stark contrast to the grandiose, megalomaniac rhetoric that defined the start of the conflict.

Only a handful of analysts and scholars that I know of foresaw what is now unfolding, stressing the realities of Iran’s resilience in the face of international pressure for decades. I was one of them: back in 2012, I warned that there could be no military solution to curbing Iran’s nuclear programme and noted that the US not only knew this, but had warned Israel that this would be the case.

When Trump and Netanyahu launched the initial military campaign on February 28, the objective was explicitly stated: the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme, an end to Tehran’s support for regional proxies such as Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hamas – and regime change. But the text of the MoU reveals a profound pivot from those aims, at least as far as the White House is concerned.

Ultimately, the agreement marks the final collapse of Pax Americana in the Persian Gulf region and highlights the resilience of Iranian state sovereignty against external pressure. At the onset of the war, both Washington and Tel Aviv projected absolute confidence in their military capabilities.

Advertisement

Following initial waves of brutal strikes and a campaign involving more than 900 targets, both leaders repeatedly asserted that the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities were fundamentally broken.

Trump regularly claimed that victory was just around the corner, maintaining – erroneously – that Iran had “nothing left in a military sense”. Weeks into the campaign, he declared that the US military would “destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground” until it was “totally”, again, obliterated.

Promising the Iranian public that their rulers would soon be gone, Trump insisted he was successfully steering the country toward “regime change”. As the first strikes landed on Iran, he called on the people to rise up and seize control of institutions. Netanyahu echoed these exact sentiments, framing the conflict as a definitive campaign to forcibly reshape the geopolitical architecture of the region.

But intelligence assessments and events on the ground quickly exposed these claims as foolish. Despite severe structural damage, Iran retained its strategic depth, adapting by moving equipment and launching retaliatory drone and missile strikes across the region.

Advertisement

Rather than causing the regime to collapse, the external aggression resulted in a hardening of the state structure.

What’s in the deal

The terms of the MoU demonstrate that Washington was ultimately forced to negotiate with Tehran as an equal sovereign power, rather than a defeated adversary accepting terms of capitulation.

The agreement directly contradicts the initial war aims of the US-Israeli coalition across three major pillars. First, the framework explicitly binds the US to respect Iran’s territorial integrity and abstain from internal interference.

For an administration that spent months demanding regime change, this clause serves as a legal acknowledgment of the Islamic Republic’s permanence. It calls to mind the Algiers accords of 1981, when the US agreed to the unfreezing of Iranian assets and non-intervention in Iran’s affairs in return for 52 American hostages held since the revolution in 1979.

Advertisement

Faced with the reality of an intact Iranian government, Trump reversed his rhetoric at the G7 summit. Claiming that “I never cared about regime change”, the US president pivoted to describing the new Iranian negotiators as “rational, strong, and smart”.

The MoU also mandates the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade and the implementation of emergency Treasury Department waivers to allow the resumption of Iranian crude oil exports. It also signals the unfreezing of up to US$100 billion (£75 billion) in restricted Iranian assets and the creation of a $300 billion international reconstruction fund for economic development.

From a critical perspective, this demonstrates that economic blockades are ultimately unsustainable when met with asymmetrical regional deterrence. Again, this should not have been new to the US government – it’s something that we have researched and written about for years.

As I argued as early as in 2011 on a flagship show on Al Jazeera, sanctions, gunboat diplomacy and even war don’t work. Iranian society is too connected and the economy and the state too agile. And, as we now know, Tehran’s threat to close down the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway, should have been seen by Iran’s adversaries as a potent deterrent. Hopefully, decision-makers will learn their lessons from this ill-fated war.

Advertisement

Indeed, perhaps the most notable aspect of the MoU is what it leaves out. There is no mention of Iran dismantling its ballistic missile programme. Nor is there a requirement for Iran to sever ties with its regional proxies. Additionally, the ceasefire explicitly covers “all fronts,” effectively mandating a halt to hostilities in Lebanon – a point of major friction for the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to maintain an Israeli security zone in the south.

Geopolitical shift

So this deal indicates a structural shift in regional politics. By launching a high-intensity campaign and failing to achieve either the destruction of Iran’s military capabilities or the toppling of its government, the US and Israel have inadvertently demonstrated the limits of their military power. No propaganda by lobbyists and diasporic pro-war monarchists can change the hard truths of scientific inquiry.

The world is transitioning rapidly into an increasingly non-polar, certainly post-western order. The MoU will stand as a historical marker where the rhetoric of superpower might surrendered to the practical necessity of diplomatic accommodation.

And yes: we’ve been predicting this for a long time, too.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

NewsBeat

Hat-trick hero & Swiss wonderkid – the World Cup duo set for Premier League?

Published

on

Thomas Tuchel throws baseball

Manzambi was once a goalkeeper for his youth team – and his first footballing idol was Germany’s Manuel Neuer.

Now he is a creative midfielder who enjoys getting forward.

And his goalscoring exploits against Bosnia-Herzegovina suggests he could be far more than just a “super-sub” at this World Cup.

He broke into the Freiburg first XI last season and helped the German club reach the Europa League final.

Advertisement

Manzambi started against Aston Villa in the final and although he could not help his side win – they were beaten 3-0 – he has been linked with moves to Napoli, Chelsea and Manchester United.

His performance on Thursday at the Los Angeles Stadium suggests there could be more competition for his services this summer.

It could have been even better had he been allowed to take his side’s 97th-minute penalty, with captain Granit Xhaka stepping up to convert instead,

If Manzambi had taken it and scored, he would have become the third-youngest player to hit a World Cup treble, after a 17-year-old Pele for Brazil against France in the semi-finals in 1958 and 19-year-old German Edmund Conen against Belgium in 1934.

Advertisement

Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea were all linked with Manzambi in March and, if he continues making an impact like this, the interest will only increase.

Speaking about Manzambi’s first goal to give Switzerland a 1-0 lead, former Crystal Palace forward Clinton Morrison told BBC Radio 5 Live: “It’s a brilliant finish.

“Switzerland needed to make changes because they weren’t doing anything, they were dominating possession but weren’t a threat.

“It’s a fantastic volley and great technique to give Switzerland the lead.”

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

NewsBeat

Work on new Darlington Tesco and office plan to progress this year

Published

on

Work on new Darlington Tesco and office plan to progress this year

Work is ongoing to open the new convenience store at the site of the former Elm Ridge Garden Centre on Council Road, Darlington. 

Residents had questioned whether the scheme was still going ahead after work at the site appeared to have slowed in recent months. 

But Councillor Kate Mammolotti, Green Party member for Hummersknott ward, said she recently spoke with the developer, who confirmed further work is expected to take place later this year. 

New Tesco work in DarlingtonWork is ongoing to open the new convenience store at the site of the former Elm Ridge Garden Centre on Council Road, Darlington. (Image: PETER REIMANN)

Applicant Ward Estates said the new store will occupy the ground floor, with offices on the first and second floors. A new car park with 44 spaces is also proposed. 

Advertisement

A roof is expected to be put on the structure in the Autumn, with work set to be completed by the end of the year, Cllr Mammolotti added. 

A Darlington Borough Council spokesperson said: “We are awaiting an update from the developer before further work can commence. We have been in discussions with them and they hope to have this submitted as soon as possible. We will continue to work with the developer on their planning application.” 

Plans for the facility were approved by the local authority in 2024 before Tesco applied for a licence to operate from the site. 

Sainsbury’s was previously signed up to the scheme but later withdrew. 

Advertisement

But during the planning process, residents questioned the need for the store. 

At a council planning meeting in October, Kate Heljula said: “We are an area that is very well serviced for convenience stores. We seem to be adding something that residents don’t need in a place that is not suitable.”

Work is ongoing to open the new convenience store at the site of the former Elm Ridge Garden Centre on Council Road, Darlington. (Image: PETER REIMANN)

The owners of the nearby Blackwell Stores also objected to the plans, saying it threatened the future of their business. “Customers have expressed their worry about this development to us and what it will do to their community,” they said. 

Existing convenience stores include the nearby petrol filling station, two stores on Cleveland Terrace, and the Co-op at Mowden.

Advertisement

A planning committee heard that the new store is intended to be marketed as a ‘top up’ store that allows more convenient access for local customers, reducing the need for dedicated, larger shopping trips to conventional supermarkets, and reducing the need to travel by car.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

NewsBeat

Burnham says ‘this is a final chance to change’ in his victory speech

Published

on

Burnham says 'this is a final chance to change' in his victory speech

Labour’s Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, paving the way for him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader.

“Everyone knows that politics isn’t working,” he says in his acceptance speech. “Tonight could, just could, be the turning point”.

Burnham previously said he would seek to enter any Labour leadership contest – he would need the support of at least 81 Labour MPs to join the race.

The newly-elected MP for Makerfield, who held cabinet positions under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, says he always knew he would seek to return to Westminster to “complete that unfinished business” so the north of England could fulfil its “potential”.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

NewsBeat

Donald Trump’s popularity is at an all-time low. History says that matters

Published

on

Donald Trump’s popularity is at an all-time low. History says that matters

In his first term of office Donald Trump achieved the lowest average job approval ratings (41%) among Americans since the end of the second world war. In his second term he has fallen well below that with an approval rating of only 35% in a recent Economist/YouGov poll.

Much of this can be explained by voter perceptions of the state of the US economy. The chart below shows the relationship between the percentage of Americans who approve of the president’s handling of his job and consumer confidence. It covers almost 50 years of monthly data with the consumer confidence data coming from surveys conducted at the University of Michigan.

Presidential approval and consumer confidence in the US, 1978 to 2026

Advertisement


Sources: Gallup Poll archives and University of Michigan, Author provided (no reuse)

The two series track each other closely and so demonstrate a moderately strong relationship with a correlation of 0.44 (If they were unrelated the correlation would be 0 and if they were exactly the same it would be 1). In both cases higher scores denote greater approval and increasing consumer confidence. This confirms the well-known fact that the state of the economy is a big driver of presidential approval.

If we look closely at the consumer confidence index, the average score over the entire period was 84. In the late 1970s Jimmy Carter had low and falling approval ratings and consumer confidence scores. This goes a long way to explaining why he was a one-term president who lost to Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election.

A decade later, when Republican George HW Bush was president between 1989 and 1993, consumer confidence plummeted as an official recession in the US economy was declared in July 1990, leading to declining growth and rising unemployment. The Federal Reserve, which is responsible for US monetary policy, exacerbated a weak financial situation by raising interest rates in order to combat inflation. The result was that Bush senior became another one-term president and lost the 1992 election to his Democrat rival, Bill Clinton (whose campaign motto was famously: “It’s the economy, stupid.”).

However, the largest fall in consumer confidence over this period occurred after the financial crash of 2007-2008, which in turn produced a serious recession and rapidly declining consumer confidence. On this occasion George W Bush was in his second term as US president and his collapsing approval ratings paved the way for the victory of Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential contest.

Advertisement

Finally, when Donald Trump won the presidential election in November 2016, consumer confidence was relatively high. In January 2017 at the time of his inauguration the consumer confidence index stood at 99. Four years later in January 2021 when Joe Biden was inaugurated as president the index was at 79, a dramatic decline in historical terms.

The midterm elections for the House and the Senate take place in November this year and currently things do not look good for the Republicans. Pollsters have been asking what is called a “generic” question in their surveys about who respondents would vote for if the midterm elections took place today. They are virtually unanimous in their agreement that the Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives. In addition, it is possible, though less likely, that the Democrats will win control of the Senate.

A thought experiment

An interesting thought experiment is to suppose that we were looking at a presidential election in November rather than the midterms. What light does the current consumer confidence data throw on such a hypothetical election?

The second chart shows the relationship between voting for the incumbent’s party in the 19 presidential elections since 1978 and consumer confidence in the month of these elections.

Advertisement

Incumbent vote shares and consumer confidence in presidential elections since 1978


Sources: Gallup Poll archives and University of Michigan, Author provided (no reuse)

Once again, the relationship is moderately strong between the two series with a correlation of 0.43. Voters reward or punish the incumbent president or his party’s candidate depending on how they feel about the economy. As we observed in the first chart, the consumer confidence score was at its lowest at 55 in the 2008 election which Obama won. But the score on the index in June 2026 was 49, so – if consumer confidence continues to fall – then in a hypothetical presidential election in November Trump would lose very badly.

This is a thought experiment rather than a prediction of what is likely to happen in the presidential election of 2028. But when the war in the Middle East launched by the US and Israel threatens to produce a global recession it seems unlikely that consumer confidence in the US will improve any time soon.

Trump will not be on the ballot in 2028. But the Republican candidate in that election is likely to take a historical beating if the US and world economies do not improve in the meantime.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2025