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Which milk is the healthiest? Skimmed, semi-skimmed or full fat – as new study reveals surprising risks of red top options

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There has been a sharp decline in Britons drinking cow's milk in recent decades - but now experts say full-fat dairy may be better for us than once thought

It’s a major debate of the nutrition world that’s rumbled on for years: What’s healthier – full fat, or semi-skimmed milk?

Now, scientists from the University of Toronto believe they have the answer. 

According to their three-month study, in which participants ate full-fat dairy products three times a day, the supposedly calorific foodstuffs led to surprising benefits. 

While consuming full-fat dairy made no difference to weight gain compared to a control group, it did lead to lower blood pressure and a boost in bone-building calcium, protein and vitamin D.

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The experts say their findings suggest older adults in particular, who are at risk of brittle bones, should incorporate full-fat dairy products into their daily diet.

Opting for full fat is an easy switch as a product most of us consume every day, they say. 

But is drinking twice the fat of the semi-skimmed alternative – and 30 extra calories – really healthy for the rest of us?

Here, we reveal which milk you should be opting for, and the surprising benefits of creamy treats you’ve long thought are bad for you.

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There has been a sharp decline in Britons drinking cow’s milk in recent decades – but now experts say full-fat dairy may be better for us than once thought 

Whole milk contains essential vitamins low fat versions don’t have 

Whole or full-fat milk is, unsurprisingly, the most calorific milk, with 132 calories and 4.7g of saturated fat (the type that’s bad for the heart) per 200ml. 

In comparison, a small glass of semi-skimmed contains just over 2g of saturated fat and 100 calories. 

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Skimmed versions have barely a gram of fat and just 74 calories. 

However, the full-fat option is still only four per cent fat, highlights registered nutritionist Grace Kingswell. There’s 2g more saturated fat in a chunk of cheddar cheese.

And when it comes to milk and dairy, Kingswell says the risk of a few extra calories and fat is worth the abundance of nutritional benefits. 

‘I would never not recommend full-fat milk or yoghurt,’ she says. ‘It contains far more of the nutrients we need compared to the lower-fat versions.’

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In fact, it’s the fat content that is responsible for the health benefits.  

‘The fat contains all the beneficial vitamins – A, D, E and K, which the low fat versions don’t have,’ Kingswell adds.

Jersey milk has a superior nutritional profile compared to standard cow's milk, containing approximately 18¿20 per cent more protein and 20 per cent more calcium

Jersey milk has a superior nutritional profile compared to standard cow’s milk, containing approximately 18–20 per cent more protein and 20 per cent more calcium

‘It’s also more satiating which means you feel fuller for longer and are less likely to snack.’

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The vitamins she mentions – which are fat-soluble, meaning they can only be absorbed when eaten with fats – help support everything from healthy vision and immunity, to well-functioning blood vessels. 

Britons are most likely to be deficient in vitamin D, which helps the body absorb calcium, making whole milk a useful nutritional bonus, Kingswell explains. 

And then there’s the calcium which, at 236mg, is interestingly roughly the same as the quantity in semi-skimmed, but more than you’ll find in most everyday staples.

This is because calcium is found in the water-based portion of milk, not the fat.

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Studies suggest some one in ten adults aged 16 to 49 don’t get enough calcium in their diet, increasing their risk of serious conditions like osteoporosis as they age.

It’s not only our bones that need calcium; it’s also important for muscle function, and helping your blood to clot. 

Semi-skimmed milk could help protect against anxiety and depression 

Semi-skimmed milk is the most popular option in the UK, chosen by around 80 per cent of people.

Kingswell says it’s far from a poor choice, given the 240mg of calcium in a small glass. 

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However, the lack of fat means you’ll miss out on a significant chunk of the healthful vitamins in the full-fat version.

But semi-skimmed options may serve other, more surprising benefits, research suggests. 

In 2024, researchers from Southern Medical University in China found those who regularly drank semi-skimmed milk over a 13-year period were around a third less likely to be diagnosed with anxiety. 

They were also 16 per cent less likely to be depressed, when compared with people who drink no milk at all, according to their analysis of health data from 357,500 UK adults.

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Interestingly, the same benefit wasn’t seen in those who drank full-fat or skimmed milk.

The researchers suggested this could be due to the higher quantity of the amino acid tryptophan in semi-skimmed milk, which converts into serotonin, a brain chemical that manages mood, appetite, and pain.

Health experts have advising parents against giving children under five vegan milk alternatives due to their high sugar content and low levels of calcium

Health experts have advising parents against giving children under five vegan milk alternatives due to their high sugar content and low levels of calcium 

Skimmed milk still carries bone benefits 

Skimmed is the lowest-calorie and lowest-fat option with just 0.2g of saturated fat per serving. 

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Somewhat surprisingly, it also contains the most amount of calcium, 244mg per 200ml glass, which can be explained by the fact skimmed varieties contain the highest quantity of water. 

Scientists have found that getting an extra 300mg of calcium per day, equivalent to a large glass of milk, may reduce the risk of developing bowel cancer by 17 per cent.

Its protective effect comes from calcium binding to carcinogenic compounds in the gut, such as bile acids and free fatty acids, reducing their potential to damage the colon lining.

However, skimmed milk contains less vitamin D than full-fat milk, which helps the body absorb the crucial nutrient. 

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It’s for this reason that Kingswell suggests opting for higher fat content milk, instead.  

What about creamy gold-topped jersey milk?

As the crème de la crème of supermarket milks, gold-top milk offers more nutritional benefits than standard cow’s milk, containing approximately 18-20 per cent more protein and 20 per cent more calcium.

This milk is unhomogenised, meaning it hasn’t been mechanically processed to break up the fat globules, so the cream can naturally rise to the top. 

It is also richer in essential vitamins A and D, phosphorus, and omega-3 fatty acids. 

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However, experts point out that these nutritional gains are relatively modest, while the risks for heart health are significant when consumed regularly.

There’s around 160 calories in a 200ml glass of Graham’s Gold Top with Cream, and nearly 7g of saturated fat – nearly half the recommended daily intake for women, and 50 per cent more than the fat in full-fat milk.

Nutritionist Grace Kingswell says an occasional glass won’t do much harm, but using Gold Top as your milk of choice is likely to lead to weight gain – as one glass is the calorie equivalent of two chocolate digestive biscuits. 

Too much saturated fat is a known risk factor for a host of cardiovascular problems, including potential heart attacks and stroke.

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Limit your oat lattes 

Experts say that those opting for ‘plant-based’ dairy-free alternatives may be missing out on key nutrients – and consuming more sugar.

Cow’s milk contains protein and fat, which slow down digestion and limit the speed at which the sugars that naturally occur in milk are absorbed into the bloodstream.

This keeps blood sugars stable, reducing the risk of hunger pangs that fuel the urge to snack. 

Plant-based milks, however, are higher in carbohydrates and lower in fat, meaning the sugars are absorbed more quickly, leading to spikes and crashes. 

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This pattern can, over time, increase the risk of developing type 2 diabetes, studies show. 

For example, a 100ml glass of the popular brand Oatly contains around 4g of sugar – which naturally occurs in the oats – but just 1g of protein, which is three times less than the amount in cow’s milk.

‘Oat milk is predominately carbohydrate with little to no fat or protein to support blood sugar regulation,’ Kingswell says.

‘The sugars in oat milk hit the bloodstream pretty quickly as it’s highly processed, wreaking havoc with blood sugar levels.’

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Plant-based alternatives are often fortified – where vitamins and minerals are added to enhance its nutritional value – but experts warn they often lack its naturally high protein content. 

Non-dairy alternatives are also often processed with added ingredients such as vegetable oils, stabilisers and emulsifiers that have been linked to a range of health problems.

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Grade II Listed building to be turned into flats and new bungalow

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Cambridgeshire Live

The existing building will be made into flats and a bungalow and two masinettes will be built on the grounds

A Grade II listed building is set to undergo a major transformation after conversion plans were approved by Peterborough City Council. The historic property at 63 Church Street in Stanground, which is currently used for both commercial and residential purposes, was purchased by Simon Dann and Edel Lynch in 2014.

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According to planning documents, despite not being responsible for the destruction of the historic features prior to their ownership, Mr Dann and Mrs Lynch have spent more than £400,000 restoring the building so far. They have now been given the go-ahead to convert the building into flats, as well as build two new maisonettes and a three-bedroom bungalow on the property grounds.

“As demonstrated over the years by trying to bring back lost features, the applicants are dedicated to further enhancing the building to its potential as a Grade II listed building,” the design and access statement reads.

It was argued in the application that the proposal would create a range of different property types which would provide essential accommodation to contribute to the housing need within the area.

In 1969 the Grade II listed building became a Polish gentlemen’s club and in 1970 extensive building works were carried out which resulted in the loss of some original features.

Planning permission and listed building consent was later granted in 2014 to demolish the extension and carry out restoration works in order to change the building into a chiropractic clinic and residential accommodation.

“The site is a unique opportunity to bring back historic features and allow them to be further enhanced and appreciated whilst promoting a community feel within the site area,” planning documents stated.

Peterborough City Council’s highways team raised concerns around a shortfall of two parking spaces, but planning officers determined this would not result in an adverse highway safety issue.

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The development must begin within three years, with a number of conditions listed in the officer’s report.

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European Athletics Championships: Criticism as thousands of empty seats in Birmingham

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A photo of six women in a race. The floor is blue and the stands are behind which are not full. The signs are pink.

One athletics fan urged organisers on social media to “fill the place” with “cheap door tickets”.

Another said they decided against buying tickets as it would cost his family “more than a holiday” when travel and accommodation for one night was factored in.

Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said she expected attendances to increase as the championships continued.

“It is true that over the past few days we haven’t sold out the stadiums but we are seeing those numbers rising steadily,” she said.

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“We have some amazing events coming up, the men’s 100m final, people like Keely Hodgkinson competing and I think you will see that really rise in the next few days.”

She added she thought organisers have “pretty good job here” over ticket prices with “half of all the tickets for the events here in Birmingham are under £30”.

A Birmingham 2026 spokesperson expressed delight at the ticket sales which “have far surpassed our targets”.

“Friday, Saturday and Sunday evening sessions are approaching sell-out, with several other sessions close to capacity,” they added.

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“There are still opportunities to be part of the championships at incredibly good value.

“After a fantastic opening day of competition, we’re looking forward to welcoming many more spectators to Alexander Stadium throughout the week and sharing more memorable moments of world-class athletics.”

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American Airlines banned woman, 52, with Down syndrome from flying… here’s why staff say they made correct decision

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Jennifer Jaspers, 52, who has Down syndrome, said American Airlines denied her a boarding pass on July 23 before her yearly trip from Omaha to North Carolina

A woman with Down syndrome said American Airlines had denied her from getting on a plane to visit her family, but the company has insisted that it had a logical reason.

Jennifer Jaspers was dropped off by her mother at Eppley Airfield in Omaha, Nebraska, on July 23.

The 52-year-old had planned to take her yearly solo trip to North Carolina to see her father and cousins, as well as celebrate her birthday.

But during the check-in process, she was apparently asked a question that took her by complete surprise, according to WOWT.

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Jaspers’s mother, Cindy Garrett, said a staff member queried ‘whether she could get herself out of a building by herself’ and her daughter had responded, ‘I don’t know.’

After that, American Airlines determined that Jaspers required a safety assistant to get on the plane in order to adhere to their procedures.

Jaspers recalled that she began crying after being denied a boarding pass, with Garrett adding that her daughter had traveled alone dozens of times before.

‘I can fly by myself,’ Jaspers told the outlet.

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Jennifer Jaspers, 52, who has Down syndrome, said American Airlines denied her a boarding pass on July 23 before her yearly trip from Omaha to North Carolina

Cindy Garrett (left), Jaspers's mother, said her daughter was thrown off and did not know how to answer a question about 'whether she could get herself out of a building by herself'

Cindy Garrett (left), Jaspers’s mother, said her daughter was thrown off and did not know how to answer a question about ‘whether she could get herself out of a building by herself’

Her mom offered an explanation for her daughter’s response at the check-in gate.

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‘Because it threw her [off],’ Garrett told WOWT. ‘She didn’t know how to answer that.’

Garrett said her family had previously used a different procedure during Jaspers’s travels to ensure everything went smoothly.

‘To transfer airplanes, we have it set up that they walk her to the next gate,’ Garrett said.

She claimed that she told American Airlines that ‘there’s never been a problem’ with her daughter’s travel plans.

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‘She has a phone in her purse all the time,’ Garrett said. ‘She knows how to use it.’

Garrett added that a supervisor got involved in the situation before her daughter’s boarding pass was denied.

American Airlines said that passengers who are unable to follow safety instructions must travel with a safety assistant

Jaspers's mom said her daughter had been scheduled to travel in first class (stock image)

Jaspers’s mom said her daughter had been scheduled to travel in first class (stock image)

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In response to the incident, American Airlines said that passengers who cannot follow safety instructions need to travel with a safety assistant, per the outlet.

Jaspers was offered that option for free but turned it down, the airline said in a statement.

‘To support those who need ​special assistance, customers who ​are unable to ​follow safety instructions ​during their journey ​are required to travel with ​a ​safety assistant,’ American Airlines told the outlet.

‘Upon review, our team followed established procedures to determine that a safety assistant would be required to travel with the customer – and that option was offered at no cost,’ the statement continued.

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Jaspers’s ticket was subsequently refunded, according to the company.

Garrett said that Jaspers is still planning to fly to North Carolina, albeit with a couple of twists.

‘She had a first-class ticket, so she won’t be able to go first class anymore,’ Garrett said.

The incident happened at Eppley Airfield in Omaha, Nebraska (file photo)

The incident happened at Eppley Airfield in Omaha, Nebraska (file photo)

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Instead, Jaspers’s father has spent about two weeks planning a round trip flight that costs about $1,800.

He would come to Omaha and serve as her travel assistant.

Garrett said the family would ask American Airlines if the offer for the safety assistant to be cost-free still applied.

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‘If they’re the ones demanding that there needs [to be] a second person there, [then] at least half of it, they should pay,’ she told the outlet.

The Air Carrier Access Act states that airlines cannot refuse transportation to people on the basis of disability and that airlines may not require a person with a disability to travel with another person. 

However, there are exceptions for ‘certain limited circumstances’ where the airline can require a safety assistant.

‘If a passenger with a disability and the airline disagree about the need for a safety assistant, the airline can require the assistant, but cannot charge for the transportation of the assistant,’ the rule continues.

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The Daily Mail has reached out to American Airlines for further comment.

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Japan’s earthquake shows extreme heat can turn one disaster into two

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Japan’s earthquake shows extreme heat can turn one disaster into two

Emergency workers attempting to rescue survivors after a recent earthquake in Kyushu, Japan, also had to cope with extreme summer heat.

After the earthquake killed at least 38 people and left thousands homeless in late July, daytime temperatures climbed into the high 30°Cs and in some places hit 40°C for the first time ever, with high humidity.

Extreme heat affects almost every aspect of an emergency response. For the close to 7,000 people in 130 evacuation shelters and in temporary accommodation across the Kumamoto region, on the southernmost of Japan’s four main islands, hot and humid conditions increase the risk of dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke.

Older adults, infants and people with chronic illnesses are particularly susceptible. It is suspected that one older woman has already died of heatstroke while sheltering in her car.

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Heat also makes it harder for people to sleep, especially when air conditioning is unavailable or electricity supplies have been interrupted. Poor sleep can worsen stress, impair decision-making and slow recovery following traumatic events. Emergency responders are similarly affected.

Rescue work, debris removal and infrastructure repairs are physically demanding activities. High temperatures reduce physical performance, increase fatigue and require more frequent rest breaks, potentially slowing recovery operations.

Temperatures in Kumamoto during and after the earthquake

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Temperatures peaked in the high 30s a few days after the earthquake, but throughout July both maximum and minimum temperatures were well above the long-term average.
Glenn McGregor

The effects extend beyond health. Damaged water infrastructure increases demand for drinking water precisely when supplies may be constrained. Electricity demand for cooling rises at the same time as power outages. Some medicines require refrigeration. Businesses face longer interruptions. Schools and community facilities may remain closed for longer. This creates a complex web of interacting risks.

Water supplies have been disrupted in some areas and electricity outages have limited access to cooling equipment, leaving evacuation centres very hot. These conditions create a second emergency that receives far less attention than the earthquake itself but can have profound consequences for public health and recovery. This is an example of what hazard scientists call a compound event.

Emergency workers are still battling to cope with the recovery.

The second emergency

Often natural hazards are thought of as isolated events, but they frequently interact with one another, so that their combined impacts are greater than the sum of each individually. Sometimes the interaction is between different weather extremes, such as heatwaves followed by drought or wildfire. In other cases, climate hazards combine with other geophysical hazards such as earthquakes.

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The conditions in 2026 are very different to those when Kumamoto last experienced large earthquakes, in April 2016.

Comparison of temperatures: 2016 and 2026 earthquakes

Two bar charts showing max and min temps in the two earthquake periods

Temperatures in 2016 (left) vs 2026 (right). Days in 2016 were warm, about 25°C, but in 2026 temperatures rarely fell that low, even at night.
Glenn McGregor; data: Japan Meteorological Agency data

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake caused widespread destruction. However, the April temperatures were relatively mild. The recent earthquake occurred during one of the hottest parts of the Japanese summer. Although rescue priorities remain the same, the environmental conditions are fundamentally different.

As the climate changes, the impact of any disaster will increasingly depend not only on the primary event but also on the climatic conditions in which it unfolds. The Kumamoto earthquake shows how extreme heat can become a powerful disaster risk multiplier. A similar lesson emerged after the catastrophic western Japan floods of 2018, when a record-breaking heatwave, subsequently shown by research to have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change, compounded the disaster, increasing health risks and hampering recovery efforts.

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Together, these events demonstrate how heatwaves following other disasters can amplify the consequences.

Planning ahead

The Kumamoto earthquake shows that disaster resilience is no longer just about building stronger infrastructure or improving earthquake-resistant design. It also means preparing communities for multiple interacting hazards.

As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, those planning for emergencies will have to factor this in.

The question is no longer simply how societies respond to earthquakes or heatwaves separately, but how they prepare for all of these circumstances.

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As the world experiences more heatwaves, extreme temperatures will pose new challenges for disaster recovery during the hottest parts of the year.

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Vikings pick Kyler Murray as their starting quarterback over J.J. McCarthy, AP source says

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Vikings pick Kyler Murray as their starting quarterback over J.J. McCarthy, AP source says

EAGAN, Minn. (AP) — The Minnesota Vikings have chosen Kyler Murray as their starting quarterback over J.J. McCarthy, according to a person with knowledge of the decision.

The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity on Tuesday because the team had not yet made the announcement.

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell pledged to supervise a true competition for the job between the newcomer Murray and the incumbent McCarthy. While Murray had the majority of the turns with the first team, McCarthy had plenty of opportunities in open-to-the-public practices as well.

With Murray learning a new system and staff after spending his first seven NFL seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, an earlier decision on the starter was always going to be ideal for him to maximize his time in training camp running the offense.

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McCarthy was the 10th overall pick in the 2024 draft. He mostly struggled in his debut last year, when a variety of injuries limited him to 10 starts. Carson Wentz was also re-signed for veteran depth.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/NFL

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Newcastle: Matthias Jaissle says ’emotional’ touchline style won’t change

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Matthias Jaissle

The squad have become familiar with those principles following a draining training camp in Spain last week, which culminated in a 2-1 win against Valencia.

Goalkeeper Lukas Hornicek said Newcastle want to “show the opponents that they will have a hard time against us”, while defender Malick Thiaw has spoken about the intensity under Jaissle being “really high”.

Season ticket holder Adam Stoker feels the club still need further additions, but he believes Jaissle’s playing style will be a “huge positive” as the German looks to build on Howe’s legacy.

“Eddie did look a bit tired and didn’t quite look the same manager as when he started,” Stoker said. “Some of that energy had been lost and it correlated with the performances of the team.

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“We have seen a tiny bit of Jaissle’s ideas now and they seem to be very much in keeping with Newcastle in 2022-23, which was a hugely exciting team to watch.

“That playing style makes the crowd feel involved because the fans want to watch a high tempo.

“Playing front-foot, high-intensity football is something the crowd at Newcastle has always been on board with.”

Jaissle now has little time to catch his breath before the season opener against Liverpool on Tyneside on 23 August.

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This is a manager who, like all of the club’s young signings this summer, has never experienced the Premier League before.

That brings the unknown, particularly after Newcastle lost key players Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes this summer, which Jaissle said has left a “vacuum”.

But he also sees it as an opportunity.

“We are ambitious,” he added. “That is the most important thing.

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“It is why I decided to come here, but this will not happen overnight, especially when you have such a big transition phase now.

“You need to have a clear goal and wish of where we want to go to. That starts from the decision-makers, the management and the board.

“Then, if you have that synergy with the fans, the players and the staff to go there, I’m pretty sure it will be a successful story. But we need time now.”

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Fire engines at the scene of a fire at Washington dealership

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Fire engines at the scene of a fire at Washington dealership

Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue said they were called to the Sherwood Van Centre in Washington at 5.53pm this evening (Tuesday, August 11).

A spokesperson confirmed that six fire engines are currently (7pm) at the scene.

(Image: NORTHERN ECHO)

(Image: NORTHERN ECHO)

Police officers have also been called to the dealership.

Pictures show thick clouds of black smoke coming from the building while a cordon has been put in place.

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A large crowd has gathered as firefighters attempt to bring the flames under control.

(Image: NORTHERN ECHO)

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Infrastructure Minister plans Belfast pedestrianisation consultation after Fleadh

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Belfast Live

Liz Kimmins said the week-long festival “clearly demonstrated the benefits of pedestrianisation”.

Stormont’s Infrastructure Minister has committed to unveiling plans for more pedestrianisation of Belfast city centre in wake of the success of the Fleadh.

Sinn Fein minister Liz Kimmins said the week-long festival “clearly demonstrated the benefits of pedestrianisation”.

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A section around City Hall was closed to traffic last week during the first Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann, which saw more than 1.5 million visit the Northern Ireland capital.

I went to every day of the Fleadh and the lasting impact will be felt for years

Footfall cameras across the city centre put attendance at 1,653,999 from Sunday August 2 to Sunday August 9, with Saturday recording the busiest day of the year to date with 289,560 visitors.

The event has been described by the chief executive of Visit Belfast Gerry Lennon as a “watershed moment” for the city, which “placed it firmly on the global stage in spectacular fashion”.

Ms Kimmins said now is the “perfect opportunity” for the public to weigh in on whether increased pedestrianisation of the city will take place moving forward.

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“When I came into office, I set out my department’s seven foundations for a better future,” she said.

“These included creating cleaner, greener, town centres through a person-centred approach to all we do over the next decade.

“The huge success of the Fleadh has just shown us exactly what that can look like and how we can build on this success for next year, with an even bigger event.

“The measures introduced for Fleadh Cheoil na hÉireann clearly demonstrated the benefits of pedestrianisation and has led to calls for a more permanent solution.

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“This has shown how we can make Belfast a nicer place for people and their families to live, to work and to visit.

My department has already been working diligently behind the scenes to prepare a new transport plan for the Belfast area.

“In the next few weeks, I will bring forward a consultation which includes proposals for the expansion of pedestrianisation in Belfast city centre.”

Ms Kimmins added: “It is my ambition to reshape our town and city centres to put people first, creating more attractive, accessible, and vibrant places while reducing car dependency and encouraging sustainable travel choices.

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“I want to hear everyone’s views on these proposals to ensure that everything we do is accessible for all.”

Sinn Fein MP for North Belfast, John Finucane said the the Fleadh “showed us what Belfast can be when we put people first”.

“For a week, our city centre was transformed into a vibrant, welcoming space where families, visitors and communities could come together and enjoy Belfast without being dominated by traffic.”

He added: “The success of the Fleadh has shown that people want this change.

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“The public have seen what is possible when our city centre is designed around people rather than cars.”

For all the latest news, visit the Belfast Live homepage here and sign up to our daily newsletter here.

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Why California is failing to build the homes it needs

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Why California is failing to build the homes it needs

Once every eight years, housing regulators in California issue local municipalities an obligatory task: construct a detailed proposal to build new residential properties.

The administration of Gov. Gavin Newsom sets specific goals for local governments across four separate tiers of affordability. Combined, these targets represent state officials’ projections of how many homes are required to absorb projected population growth while addressing a multi-decade shortage of affordable places to live.

Because these quotas are distributed on a rolling schedule, a significant portion of California—including the whole of Southern California—passed its midway milestone this summer.

So how are these local jurisdictions faring when evaluated halfway through the process? The results for California are far from ideal. Evaluated on an academic grading scale, municipalities across the state would receive predominantly low marks.

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The state’s total planning target adds up to nearly 2.5 million units over eight years, a reduction of the even more ambitious 3.5 million target Newsom set for his administration during his 2017 election
The state’s total planning target adds up to nearly 2.5 million units over eight years, a reduction of the even more ambitious 3.5 million target Newsom set for his administration during his 2017 election (Heather Diehl/Getty Images)

Data provided by local governments to the state housing department reveals that under a third of cities and counties are currently on pace to authorize enough “above moderate” units, the standard designation for market-rate housing.

The progress report for more affordable types of housing is even bleaker. Only 32 jurisdictions — less than 6% — are on track to hit their “very low” targets. That refers to housing within financial reach of anyone earning less than half the typical local income.

After years of nudging, political trolling and litigating, most cities and counties now have state-approved plans in place. But as the production numbers show, it’s one thing to plan and another to build. Almost nowhere in the state is actually seeing the new construction necessary “to meet the housing needs of all Californians,” as housing regulators have described these targets.

Only five jurisdictions in the entire state are permitting at a pace to hit all four income targets. Four are the lightly populated unincorporated bits of small, mostly rural counties: Plumas, Napa, Yolo and Mono. The fifth is Placerville, a town of roughly 11,000 people in the Sierra foothills east of Sacramento.

To be “on track,” a city or county needs to issue permits at a clip that, if sustained, would allow it to hit its state targets by the end of its planning cycle. State housing regulators told the city of Irvine in Orange County, for example, to plan for 8,671 market-rate units by 2030. Now halfway there, the city has issued more than 6,000, making it one of the minority of cities to be on pace to reach its target for above-moderate housing.

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But for more affordable digs, Irvine, like most California cities, is far behind. The city has permitted just 9% of the very low-income housing needed to reach its target by the end of the decade. For the next most affordable category, which refers to units priced for those earning up to 80% of the regional median, it’s at a mere 3%.

What’s the housing hold up?

For anyone who has been monitoring the pace of new residential development in California over the last half century, the disconnect between housing planned and housing permitted won’t come as a surprise. The state’s total planning target adds up to nearly 2.5 million units over eight years, a reduction of the even more ambitious 3.5 million target Newsom set for his administration during his 2017 election. That 2.5 million figure works out to 312,500 new homes per year. Even during the state’s boomingest boom years in the early 1960s and mid-1980s, construction figures never reached such lofty heights.

This decade, despite a blizzard of state legislation and policy changes aimed at boosting the construction of new homes, the number of new homes built annually is still just north of 100,000.

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Critics of the state’s planning process have long stressed that California’s targets are unrealistic and that local governments can only do so much.

“Cities cannot require developers to develop and cities don’t build housing,” said Jason Rhine, a lobbyist with the League of California Cities. You can lead a developer to a rezoned plot of land, in other words, but you can’t make them build.

Critics of the state’s planning process have long stressed that California’s targets are unrealistic and that local governments can only do so much
Critics of the state’s planning process have long stressed that California’s targets are unrealistic and that local governments can only do so much (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Pro-development advocates counter that the uninspiring production numbers suggest that cities still aren’t doing enough to welcome more housing.

“Cities can argue that they don’t directly control production, but they do control fees, zoning and permitting,” said Laura Foote, executive director of YIMBY Action. The housing needs allocation process “is only as good as we have the political will to actually hold cities accountable.”

Foote directed some of the blame at state housing regulators for failing to compel cities to adopt more development-friendly policies.

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In a written statement, housing department spokesperson Jennifer Hanson said regulators are “actively monitoring and enforcing” the commitments each jurisdiction has made in its housing plans. She also pointed to a couple of recent laws exempting many urban housing developments from environmental litigation and requiring local governments to allow for taller buildings near major public transportation stops. Both have already been used to “advance approved projects representing thousands of proposed homes,” she said.

There are many reasons that developers may or may not choose to build in a particular location. Some are in the power of local and state governments, like zoning and building codes, permitting timelines and fees. But many are not, said Hanson.

“Whether a project moves forward depends on interest rates, construction and land costs, access to capital, insurance and expected rents or sale prices,” she said.

Affordable housing construction faces an additional hurdle: A lack of public money. With very few exceptions, building homes that are affordable to those making below average incomes in California requires public subsidies, philanthropic capital or other lenders and investors willing to take a loss. Taxpayer support provided by the state has been in short supply after a voter-approved bond from 2018 that provided funding for California’s signature affordable development subsidy ran dry. That explains why the affordable production numbers are so much lower.

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Affordable developers and other housing advocates are hoping voters will back an $11.25 billion state bond in November to replenish the coffers
Affordable developers and other housing advocates are hoping voters will back an $11.25 billion state bond in November to replenish the coffers (Frederic J. Brown / AFP via Getty Images)

Affordable developers and other housing advocates are hoping voters will back an $11.25 billion state bond in November to replenish the coffers.

Meanwhile, “moderate” income housing is especially tough to build, facing the financial worst of both worlds. It often doesn’t qualify for affordable subsidy programs that prioritize projects serving people further down the income ladder. But rents affordable to those earning median incomes are often too low for unsubsidized developers hoping to turn a profit.

An escape valve

The state may force local governments to lay the groundwork for new development — identifying potential sites, rezoning to allow for denser housing, changing local laws that make construction more economically feasible. But historically, local governments haven’t faced any consequences if nothing actually gets built.

That changed in 2017, when state lawmakers passed a landmark housing bill aimed at boosting new housing production where it was most needed. In jurisdictions that are halfway through their planning process but have yet to permit at least half their housing targets for above-moderate, low- and very low-income housing (housing affordable to a “moderate” income level isn’t included), the law requires local governments to fast track most apartment and condo projects. In exchange, developers have to set aside a certain number of affordable units and pay their workers more.

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Of the 212 Southern California cities and counties that crossed the halfway point this year, all but four failed to hit those numbers and are now subject to the streamlining law.

But if history is any guide, that alone isn’t likely to trigger a building boom.

Private developers have insisted that the affordability requirements and higher wage standards written into the law make projects infeasible everywhere but in the highest rent neighborhoods. Since 2018, the law has been used to green light 27,961 units, according to the state’s housing department. That’s a significant sum, but it’s far from enough to close the gap.

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what is the best way to grow food in a changing climate?

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what is the
best way to grow food in a changing climate?

When most people picture British farming, they probably imagine fields of wheat,
potatoes or vegetables stretching across the countryside. But some of the food on supermarket shelves is produced in environments that look very different.

A tomato might spend its entire life inside a glasshouse, growing more than 20 metres tall with water and nutrients delivered directly to its roots. A lettuce could be grown inside a building, stacked on shelves under LED lights without ever seeing natural sunlight.

These systems – open fields, greenhouses and vertical farms – are sometimes presented as competing visions for the future of food. But they operate at completely different scales and, importantly, offer very different levels of control over the environment.

This matters as the climate changes. Moving crops indoors can protect them from
drought, heat and unpredictable weather. But that control comes at a cost.
The UK has around 17 million hectares of utilised agricultural land, with approximately 6.1 million hectares classified as croppable. Around 3 million hectares are used for cereals alone.

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By comparison, the UK’s horticultural crops (ranging from tomatoes and peppers to cucumbers and strawberries) occupy only around 147,000 hectares, and glasshouses account for a small fraction of that (approximately 850 hectares).

Vertical farming is smaller still, and not separately recorded in national agricultural land-use statistics. I estimate that these farms only occupy 0.0001% of the UK’s total agricultural land (around 10-30 hectares).

Yet the amount of land occupied by a farming system does not necessarily reflect its importance to our food supply.

Fields provide scale, but are more vulnerable to the climate. If you eat a slice of bread, the wheat used to make it was almost certainly grown outdoors. The same applies to barley, oilseed rape, potatoes and many vegetables.

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The great advantage of open-field agriculture is scale. Sunlight and rainfall provide two of the most important inputs for plant growth without farmers having to manufacture either of them. Growing millions of tonnes of wheat inside illuminated buildings would make little economic or environmental sense.

The trade-off is control. Farmers cannot decide when it rains or how hot a field
becomes. This becomes particularly important during drought. Irrigation can
compensate for a lack of rainfall, particularly for key crops such as potatoes and many other vegetables, but access to water differs considerably between farms.

A hosepipe ban does not automatically mean that farmers must stop irrigating. Domestic restrictions are different from the rules governing agricultural abstraction from rivers and groundwater.

But during prolonged drought, abstraction can also be restricted to protect water supplies and the environment. Agriculture therefore faces a difficult problem: crops often require the most irrigation precisely when water resources are under the greatest pressure.

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Greenhouses offer control, but require a lot of resources. Walk from a field into a modern tomato greenhouse and the level of environmental control changes dramatically.

Plants may grow without soil while computers regulate irrigation, nutrients, ventilation, humidity and temperature. Modern systems can deliver water directly to the root zone and collect drainage water to be treated and reused. This means they can be up to 90% more efficient in using water.

Many crops are grown inside huge greenhouses where this is greater protection from extreme weather.
Noi Pattanan/Shutterstock

That makes greenhouse production potentially very water-efficient. It also allows large quantities of crops such as tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers to be produced from a relatively small area. But water efficiency is not the same as water security.

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The Netherlands, home to one of the world’s most advanced greenhouse industries,
illustrates this problem. Recent dry conditions have increased pressure on surface and groundwater supplies, affecting the availability of water for agriculture, including greenhouse horticulture.

A greenhouse can recycle water extremely efficiently, but it still needs an original source. Capturing rainfall from greenhouse roofs, increasing water storage and recycling irrigation water will therefore become increasingly important as drought risk increases.

Temperature creates another challenge. Greenhouses provide protection from the
outside environment, but they are not isolated from it. If tomatoes grow best within a particular temperature range, maintaining that range becomes harder as outdoor conditions become more extreme. When it becomes hotter outside, growers may need more ventilation, shading or cooling. During cold periods, additional heating is required.

This means that the way we operate greenhouses today may not be how we operate
them in the future. Climate change could require greater intervention simply to
maintain the same growing conditions. And intervention costs money.

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Vertical farms sit at the other end of this spectrum of control. Crops such as lettuce, herbs and leafy vegetables can be grown on multiple stacked layers inside buildings – even several kilometres underground – with light, water, nutrients, humidity and temperature all tightly controlled.

rows of lettuce growing

Crops such as lettuce can be grown in vertical farms at scale.
Sergey_Bogomyako/Shutterstock

They can use remarkably little land and recycle much of their water. They are also largely protected from drought, storms and other extreme weather. But the greater the control, the greater the dependence on infrastructure and energy.

Even vertical farms are not completely independent of outdoor temperatures. LEDs and other equipment generate heat that needs to be removed. Maintaining an optimal indoor climate can require more energy as external temperatures move further away from the conditions required by the crop.




À lire aussi :
Four myths about vertical farming debunked by an expert

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This exposes a fundamental trade-off in controlled-environment agriculture. The more we separate food production from the natural environment, the more energy and infrastructure we need to replace the services that nature previously provided for free.

The economics can become difficult. Vertical farming has demonstrated that crops can be produced using very little land and water, but the sector has also experienced numerous business failures. High energy requirements, substantial infrastructure costs and narrow profit margins have made it difficult for some technically impressive systems to become financially sustainable.

Resilience has a price

There is no simple answer to whether fields, greenhouses or vertical farms are the most resilient way to produce food.

Fields require comparatively little infrastructure but are highly exposed to weather. Greenhouses provide greater control but require investment, energy and secure water supplies. Vertical farms offer even more control, but with greater dependence on electricity and expensive infrastructure.

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Climate change makes this trade-off increasingly important. The future will require smarter, rather than simply more controlled, agriculture: better water management in fields, greater rainwater capture and storage in greenhouses, more efficient heating and cooling, and increased use of renewable energy and waste heat from other industries.

We will need fields, greenhouses and vertical farms – for different crops in different places. The challenge is finding the right balance between exposure to a changing climate, and the increasing cost of controlling it.

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