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“Bull Market OVER? My Latest Update on Bitcoin & Crypto” – Raoul Pal
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Raoul Pal believes the crypto market may be facing a liquidity problem, not the end of its bull cycle.
In this latest analysis, Pal explains why crypto has struggled to accelerate despite the enormous technological and economic transformation happening around it. According to his framework, massive amounts of capital are currently being absorbed by the AI investment boom, leaving less excess liquidity available for assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
But Pal’s argument goes much deeper than simply saying “liquidity is low.”
He breaks down the Treasury General Account, the Federal Reserve balance sheet, bank lending, the yield curve, interest rates, the US dollar and global demand for US Treasuries to explain why liquidity has remained weaker than expected. He also explains what would need to change before liquidity can begin flowing more freely through financial markets.
The discussion then turns to one of the most important forces shaping the next stage of the economic cycle: AI-driven productivity.
Pal argues that the enormous investment taking place in AI infrastructure could eventually produce a major productivity surge, potentially changing the relationship between economic growth, inflation and interest rates. His example of Amazon’s investment in robotics and automation provides a glimpse into what he believes could happen across the broader economy.
And then there is the hidden bottleneck: electricity.
AI requires enormous amounts of energy, and Pal believes the electricity shortage is slowing the adoption curve rather than stopping it. As AI becomes more capable, the technology itself could help solve many of the constraints limiting its expansion, from energy production to infrastructure and manufacturing.
For crypto investors, the bigger question is what happens when these forces begin moving together.
Could accelerating productivity, easing financial conditions and renewed liquidity create the environment for another major crypto expansion?
Watch the full breakdown to hear Raoul Pal’s latest thinking on liquidity, Bitcoin, crypto, AI, productivity, interest rates and the next phase of the global business cycle.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Raoul Pal’s big crypto thesis
13:07 Why crypto is struggling for liquidity
14:09 The Treasury, Fed and banking system
15:05 Why excess liquidity matters for crypto
16:22 What needs to happen to interest rates
17:00 The global dollar and Treasury trade
19:16 The productivity boom
20:44 Amazon’s automation experiment
22:14 How AI is changing the business cycle
22:59 The electricity bottleneck
24:10 Why the AI adoption curve is different
24:34 How AI could solve its own constraints
What do you think?
Is crypto simply being held back by a temporary liquidity shortage, or is this cycle fundamentally different from previous crypto bull markets?
Leave your thoughts in the comments.
If you found this analysis useful, **LIKE the video, SUBSCRIBE to the channel, turn on post notifications, and SHARE this video** with someone following Bitcoin, crypto and the global liquidity cycle.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #RaoulPal
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Sources: Milk Road and Raoul Pal The Journey Man
Raoul Pal: This Is the Setup Investors Wait Decades For
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XRP IS THE LAST ONE STANDING | SEC CRYPTO LAWS | CLARITY ACT FAILING WAS THE PLAN | EMERGENCY VIDEO
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MIT 14.129 Blockchain and the Design of Financial Systems, Spring 2025
Instructor: Robert M. Townsend
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As always, not advice and you do you, but there are some things worth noting about some of these big players.
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A MASSIVE shift is happening in crypto – and it seems most bitcoin and altcoin holders are going to be left on the sidelines because it’s the same pattern that happened in 2022 – not just on the price charts but also psychologically as well.
Bitcoin’s chart looks extremely impressive right now, and I need you to understand that we may only get one quick push down rather than a huge crash as most crypto holders think!
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