Heading into the stretch run, the Milwaukee Brewers appear to be poised for a fourth consecutive NL Central title based on having the best overall record in the majors, but an inexperienced rotation and rugged schedule raise questions.
And that doesn’t count the looming postseason specter of the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers, who swept the Brewers in the National League Championship Series last season.
The Brewers headed into a six-game West Coast road swing this week against the Padres and Dodgers atop the NL Central and the best overall record in the majors.
Milwaukee lost at San Diego 3-2 on Monday in the opener of a three-game series, trimming its division lead to five games over the Cubs and 1 ½ games better than Tampa Bay for the best overall record. The Dodgers, despite losing eight of their last 10, lead the NL West by 7 ½ games and are four games back for the best overall record.
But at the trade deadline, the Dodgers pried two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal away from Detroit. The Brewers, although reportedly in talks for Skubal, then switched gears and acquired veteran right-hander Dustin May from the Cardinals to bolster a young, inexperienced rotation.
The Brewers rotation is led by hard-throwing Jacob Misiorowski (11-5, 1.76 ERA), who leads the majors with 204 strikeouts in 133 innings. His ERA is the lowest in the majors among qualified pitchers.
Along with the addition of May, the Brewers rotation received a boost with the return of left-hander Kyle Harrison from the injured list.
After almost a month on the injured list with left forearm tightness, Harrison (9-2, 2.84 ERA) returned last week to toss five innings of one-hit ball to get the win in a 4-2 victory over Pittsburgh, striking out 10, including the final eight batters he faced, before leaving with cramping in both legs.
Behind those three, the Brewers six-man rotation includes Logan Henderson, rookie Shane Drohan, and Robert Gasser, who have a combined 39 big league starts. Rookie Brandon Sproat, who was inconsistent in 19 starts, was sent down after May was acquired.
“I call them rookies, maybe Harrison’s not technically a rookie, but think of the non-established starting pitchers that we’re going with,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said. “It’s been amazing.”
The 28-year-old May, who was 5-7 with a 4.38 ERA in 21 starts for St. Louis, won his Brewers debut, allowing two runs on three hits in six innings in a 5-2 win over the Pirates last week.
“It’s not as sharp as he can be, but he made the big pitches,” Murphy said following May’s debut. “It’s just beautiful to have that experience out there.”
Behind the starters, the Brewers back end of the bullpen has settled in with versatile Aaron Ashby (13-2), 94 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings; Abner Uribe, who has 18 holds along with six saves; and closer Trevor Megill, who has rebounded from a slow start for 21 saves in 23 opportunities.
Chad Patrick and DL Hall, both former starters, provide effective and flexible middle-inning relief, and the Brewers acquired veteran reliever Antonio Senzatela (9-3) from the Rockies at the deadline.
“They’re the best record in baseball for a reason,” Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers said during the recent weekend series in Milwaukee, where the Brewers won the last two games 4-3, including a 10-inning walk-off Sunday. “They pitch the ball really well. Every guy they roll out of the bullpen is a good, unique arm. Their team taking a lead, or they’re close, you’re going to have a hard time scoring.”
Ashby, Uribe, Megill and Hall all pitched in relief of Misiorowski in Sunday’s win. Uribe entered Monday unscored upon his last 21 games, and Megill was unscored upon in 22 of his last 23 outings.
The Brewers lead the National League in team ERA at 3.47, are second in strikeouts, and tied for first with the Dodgers in opponents batting average at .219.
Offensively, the Brewers are last in the majors home runs. But Milwaukee is fifth in the NL in runs scored, second in doubles, second in walks, and fourth in stolen bases.
To win the division, the Brewers will have to win within the division with 18 of their 24 games in September against NL Central opponents, including six games against the Cubs.
The Brewers, who are 22-11 this season against division opponents, are 4-2 against the Cubs and 1-2 against the Dodgers.
Last season, the Brewers held off the Cubs in five games in the NLDS, winning the decisive fifth game 3-1 in a bullpen game started by Megill, followed by Misiorowski, who got the win with by allowing one run in four innings. Ashby, Patrick and Uribe preserved the first postseason series win since 2018.
The Brewers, who have qualified for the postseason seven of the last eight years, also had the best regular season record last season, which counted for little in the NLCS against the Dodgers.
There’s still a long way to go and even if the Brewers can hold off the Cubs, Tarik Skubal will be wearing Dodger blue in the postseason.
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