Usually, the NBA’s free agent frenzy comes and goes in a blink. The opening bell rings on June 30th and the best players are all settled in the next few hours and days.
But things are off to a slower start in 2026, no doubt in part because of the surprising availability of LeBron James and several notable restricted free agents dictating how teams want to allocate their money. A number of free agents re-signed with their teams between the end of the Finals and the beginning of free agency, but the first night was relatively slow when it came to big moves.
But even if free agency is taking its time, a number of meaningful moves came on Tuesday — the blockbuster trade of Kawhi Leonard in particular — along with news of James’ free agency. So let’s pick some winners and losers from all of Tuesday’s movement.
Loser: Los Angeles Lakers
Hours before free agency was set to officially begin, James let the Lakers know that he would not re-sign with the franchise, ending his eight-year tenure in Los Angeles.
“Truly an honor to wear the [purple and gold] while trying to continue the greatness & legacies that came before me! Hope I made a few proud during my stint,” James wrote on social media after the team announced his departure.
While you could make the case that the Lakers will be better off in the long run by turning the team over to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, they still have to be considered losers from the first day of free agency. I mean, come on, LeBron James is walking out the door.
Even at 41 and entering a historic 24th season, James remains a top 20-25 player in the league. Last season, he averaged 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists, and was one of 10 players to average 20/5/5. He’s also still one of the most popular athletes alive and provides a major economic boost to whichever team he’s on. Even the Lakers will suffer on that front without him. — Jack Maloney
Winner: Whoever signs LeBron James
It’s unclear when or where James will sign. For now, all signs point to him taking his time. Which, in turn, could put free agency on hold for a number of teams and players. Shortly after the Lakers announced that James would not be back, his agent, Rich Paul, released a statement to The Athletic. It reads, in part:
“LeBron knows the Lakers are building for the future, and he also wants to compete for championships… We do want to evaluate what’s best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career. He wants to make every season he has left count,” Paul said.
There has been a significant amount of smoke about James joining the Golden State Warriors to team up with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. His two other former teams, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat, have also been mentioned as possibilities. In Cleveland, he could join forces with Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, while returning to Miami would allow him to play with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. Additionally, the Minnesota Timberwolves were mentioned as a wild card by The Athletic’s Sam Amick. There, he could unite with two elite guards in Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball.
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Of course, while James wants to “compete for championships” and “make every season he has left count,” he also wants to make some money in the process, and is not going to sign for the veteran minimum. That’s bad news for the Cavaliers, in particular, who would have to clear some space to facilitate a return for King James.
Wherever James winds up, that team will be a clear winner, for all of the reasons noted above. James is still a high-level player and a major draw, who will give his new team a boost both on and off the court. — Maloney
Winner: Toronto Raptors
Kawhi Leonard spent one season with the Toronto Raptors and won a championship. That is a 100% championship hit rate. It is almost impossibly rare for teams to make any substantial move with a 100% success rate. The Raptors pulled that off with their reacquisition of Leonard on Tuesday.
Now, obviously, the Raptors are not guaranteed another championship. They’re frankly underdogs to even win the Eastern Conference with the defending champion New York Knicks still around. But remember, the Raptors did not have the absolute best team when they won it all in 2019. They got to the NBA Finals, Klay Thompson got hurt, Kevin Durant played 11 minutes, and they hoisted the trophy. Sometimes, you have to put yourself in a position to take advantage of someone else’s misfortune.
That’s where the Raptors are now. They have a puncher’s chance. They have two All-NBA-caliber players in Leonard and Scottie Barnes, both big wings who can guard anyone. Leonard fills in the half-court shotmaking gap that Barnes needed in a co-star, and that Brandon Ingram couldn’t provide before getting hurt against Cleveland. Between Collin Murray-Boyles, Ja’Kobe Walter and Jamal Shead, this team is loaded with defensive role players, and playoff hero RJ Barrett remains on the team on a big expiring contract.
The price here was steep. The Raptors are winners today. They could be losers tomorrow now that they have lost control of their 2031 and 2033 first-round picks to the Los Angeles Clippers. But Toronto has a genuine chance to compete for a championship. How can they not be winners? — Sam Quinn
Loser: Miami Heat
The Heat, like the Raptors, gave up several first-round picks deep into the 2030s to secure a superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo. Toronto was able to retain far more depth in its trade than Miami did. The only players the Raptors sent out were Ingram, who Leonard is replacing, and Gradey Dick, who had already fallen out of their plans.
The Heat need to construct basically an entire bench and even fill a starting shooting guard slot after landing Antetokounmpo. That was always going to be difficult because, in addition to Giannis, the Bucks forced the Heat to take on the extra $15 million or so owed to Bobby Portis, leaving Miami precious little room underneath its first-apron hard cap. Tim Hardaway Jr., signed by Miami on Tuesday, is a good player. He is not an adequate replacement for Norman Powell, who made the All-Star Team last year.
The Heat don’t seem to be acting with the urgency of an all-in, win-now team. They seem like they’re prioritizing longer-term cap flexibility. Hardaway only got a one-year deal. When they agreed to a three-year, $64 million deal to bring back Andrew Wiggins, they structured it so he would pick up his $30 million player option rather than take a pay cut this season to maximize flexibility. That might make sense in the long run, but it’s going to make the already thin Heat weaker in a prime Antetokounmpo season. He is 31 and has serious health concerns, given all of the calf strains he’s endured. They may not be able to afford slow-playing this roster build. — Quinn
Winner: Los Angeles Clippers
Getting Leonard may have given the Raptors a chance to win the title. Losing him didn’t deprive the Clippers of that chance. This era ended years ago for them. The Paul George trade was a swing and a miss. James Harden couldn’t save them. Ultimately, the Leonard signing back in 2019 did not yield the championship that the Clippers hoped for.
But think about where this team was in January, essentially waiting out the end of Leonard’s and Harden’s primes while sitting on a great Ivica Zubac contract that they weren’t good enough to benefit from and owing control over four more first-round picks thanks to those prior swings. Their future was about as bleak as anyone’s in the NBA.
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They turned those three players into Darius Garland, an All-Star point guard who is a decade younger than Harden, Keaton Wagler, the No. 5 overall pick in this year’s loaded draft, three more future first-round picks (2029 from Indiana, 2031 and 2033 from Toronto) and a 2027 first-round swap (also from Toronto). That is about as dramatic a six-month turnaround as it is possible to have in the NBA. This was a franchise-altering series of moves. The Clippers weren’t going to compete for a championship with Leonard. But they set themselves up to build a real contender a few years down the line with this trade. — Quinn
Loser: Utah Jazz
The Jazz reportedly offered young defensive anchor Walker Kessler a five-year, $140 million contract before free agency. He declined. That deal would have paid him $28 million per year. Now, according to The Athletic, he has multiple offers in the mid-to-high $30 millions annually. The Lakers seem like an obvious fit in that respect, but other teams appear to be trying to woo Kessler.
Utah could likely have avoided this with a more generous offer last offseason, or perhaps a better one earlier in this one. Now they’re sitting in the unenviable position of waiting for someone to throw a massive offer sheet at Kessler and daring them to match it. The Jazz have the capacity to do so. They have full Bird Rights and can legally prevent Kessler from leaving if they want to. But think about how expensive this team is getting now. Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. are on max deals. Keyonte George is eligible for a rookie extension. You can’t pay everyone.
The Jazz are at the very least about to pay their center more than they hoped, and if they don’t, it’s because they’re losing him for nothing. Either way, this will be a very expensive process for Utah. — Quinn
Winners: Injury-prone big men
Two injury-prone big men cashed in on the first day of free agency.
Kristaps Porzingis officially agreed to return to the Golden State Warriors on what ESPN reported is a two-year, $40 million deal. The former No. 4 overall pick played 32 games last season with the Atlanta Hawks and Warriors as he continued to struggle with POTS (postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome), which has ruined his last two seasons. Porzingis has reached the 60-game mark just twice in his career, most recently in 2023 with the Washington Wizards.
Also out West, Robert Williams III agreed to a three-year, $44 million contract to stay with the Portland Trail Blazers, according to ESPN. Williams has played only 85 games with the Trail Blazers since he was traded to the team in 2023, largely due to ongoing knee problems. His 59 games last season were the second-most in his career.
Teams are desperate for quality bigs right now, and that turned out to be great news for Porzingis and Williams.
While both will pose health risks for the rest of their careers, they are unique players who can make a real impact on both sides of the ball. Porzingis is a center who can space the floor and protect the rim. Williams is a major lob threat who can also patrol the paint.
If they can stay healthy, these will be win-win contracts for both the players and the teams. — Maloney
Loser: Jalen Duren
Duren was one of last season’s breakout players. He averaged a career-high 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds on 65% shooting, made his first All-Star appearance and earned All-NBA Third Team honors. The leap he took helped the Detroit Pistons win 60 games and finish first in the Eastern Conference.
But that strong play did not carry over to the postseason — for the team as a whole and Duren individually. The Pistons needed to pull off a 3-1 comeback in the first round against the Orlando Magic and blew a 2-0 lead to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round as Duren pulled a disappearing act. He averaged 10.2 points and 8.5 rebounds on 51.4% shooting, and was getting benched at times down the stretch.
In the span of a few weeks this spring, Duren lost nearly all of his leverage over the Pistons in contract negotiations, and is now stuck in free agency limbo.
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Chris Haynes reported Monday that Duren and the Pistons are a “sizeable difference” apart in negotiations, and Duren wants to join the Sacramento Kings via a sign-and-trade. Meanwhile, Sam Amick reported that Duren is set to meet with the Lakers, who could also be a sign-and-trade candidate. The Pistons, however, control the situation. They have the right to match any offer Duren receives, and Marc Spears reported that Detroit has no interest in trading him.
Duren is still going to get a big contract this summer, but he likely lost tens of millions of dollars due to his poor playoff showing and may now have to stay in Detroit against his wishes. — Maloney
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