Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists have run the numbers on the World Cup and — much as others have done — concluded that Spain are the most likely to come up winners in the epic football contest.
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“Our prediction aligns with the historical pattern that the World Cup almost always comes back to Europe after having been won by a South American team,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Friday.
Goldman’s statistical model showed Spain with a 26 per cent probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The analysis combined historical match data, team rankings, scoring talent and geographic factors to forecast the tournament’s outcome. The model relies heavily on Elo ratings — a system originally created for chess, which measures team strength based on results and opponent quality.
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Spain, the 2010 World Cup winner, currently holds the highest Elo rating, ahead of Argentina and France. Its odds were also supported by “scoring talent,” the Goldman team said.
France has a 19 per cent probability of becoming a three-time champion, Goldman’s model shows. Argentina slots in with a 14 per cent chance of becoming the first back-to-back winner since Brazil in 1962. Brazil is on 8 per cent, with England and the Netherlands at about 5 per cent.
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For the semifinals, the model projects an all-Europe matchup of France versus Spain, and a battle between the South American giants, Argentina and Brazil. Goldman sees Spain ultimately defeating Argentina in the final in New York on July 19.
Goldman’s model incorporates data from nearly 20,000 mandatory international matches played since 1978. Recent momentum and mentality factors were also part of the mix.
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Teams with prolific scorers and strong recent performances tend to outperform, while reigning World Cup champions often struggle in the following tournament — hurting Argentina’s odds as defending champion — the Goldman analysis showed.
England was also downgraded despite a strong Elo ranking because of what the report described as historical World Cup underperformance and potential geographical disadvantages, including the possibility of playing Mexico in high-altitude Mexico City.
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Among the projected marquee matchups are a possible US-Iran game in the round of 32 and a quarterfinal between Argentina and Portugal that could feature a final World Cup meeting between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.
Goldman said its model is “largely blind” to factors including health. Spain’s teenage star Lamine Yamal was injured in the run-up to the games and reportedly will miss the start of the contest.
Barangay Ginebra Gin Kings’ RJ Abarrientos during a game vs Rain or Shine Elasto Painters in the 2026 PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinals Game 5. –MARLO CUETO/INQUIRER.net
MANILA, Philippines—Barangay Ginebra scored a pivotal 111-104 victory over Rain or Shine in Game 5 of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinals at Araneta Coliseum on Friday.
The Gin Kings moved a step closer to reaching the Finals with a 3-2 lead, but coach Tim Cone was anything but satisfied.
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“We’re not going to be happy with this win. We’ve been in this situation before. We led 3-2 and then got beat. Once by San Miguel, once by TNT,” said Cone.
“It’s too easy to get euphoric with the 3-2 lead. We’re not. A lot of things went our way tonight, which is great, we’re fortunate, but we have to move on.”
Ginebra held on to a 10-point lead, 91-81, in the fourth quarter when RJ Abarrientos took charge to fend off the Elasto Painters for good.
Barangay Ginebra Gin Kings’ Justin Brownlee during a game vs Rain or Shine Elasto Painters in the 2026 PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinals Game 5. –MARLO CUETO/INQUIRER.net
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The young guard scored seven points in the Gin Kings’ decisive 10-2 run that made it a safe 101-83 advantage with 4:03 remaining.
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Abarrientos finished with 31 points, eight assists, four rebounds and two steals for Ginebra, which can close out the series on Sunday.
Justin Brownlee also came up big with 22 points, six rebounds and six assists while Troy Rosario scored 16.
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Adrian Nocum topscored in a losing effort for Rain or Shine with 25 points. Jaylen Johnson registered a double-double of 22 points and 14 rebounds while Jhonard Clarito had 20 points and 10 rebounds.
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The semifinals return to the Ynares Sports Center in Antipolo for Game 6.
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Kit Wilson blamed a major WWE star for missing this week’s episode of SmackDown and vowed to get revenge. Tonight’s edition of the blue brand aired live from Barcelona, Spain, and was the final show before Clash in Italy on Sunday.
The Miz lost to Axiom tonight on SmackDown after Danhausen kept getting involved in the match. The former AEW star kept cutting the lights in the arena when The Miz had the advantage, and eventually Axiom picked up the pinfall victory.
Thanks for the submission!
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The Miz is in an alliance with Kit Wilson on the blue brand. Wilson was denied entry into Spain and missed this week’s episode of SmackDown, and he apologized to the fans ahead of the show.
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Danhausen responded to Wilson’s post by calling him toxic, which led to the 31-year-old blaming The Very Nice, Very Evil star for the ordeal. Wilson also vowed to destroy Danhausen, and you can check out his message in the post below.
“WAS THIS YOU?! IF YOU’VE STOPPED ME FROM GOING BACK TO EUROPE I PROMISE I WILL DESTROY YOU,” he wrote.
SmackDown star Kit Wilson recently discussed Elton Prince and the severe neck injury he suffered earlier this year.
Wilson and Prince were in a popular tag team known as Pretty Deadly together before the injury. He took to social media following the injury and noted that Prince was a private person and that he hoped they could be a tag team again in WWE down the line.
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“So for him to suffer a career-threatening injury was, and still is, devastating. Everything I do now as a singles competitor is with the hope that one day we can be Pretty Deadly again. But that isn’t the priority. Right now, I’m just grateful that Elton has finally had his surgery and is on the road to recovery, so he can be the best partner and the best father he can be. I could say so much more, but I’ll let Elton do that in his own time. Love you, Lewis. x”
It will be interesting to see what the future holds for Kit Wilson after missing this week’s edition of WWE SmackDown.
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As the Rajasthan Royals fumbled on the penultimate hurdle in their pursuit of the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2026 title, head coach Kumar Sangakkara couldn’t be prouder of how his boys applied themselves in the middle, getting as far as Qualifier 2. However, it was the Gujarat Titans side which emerged triumphant on Friday, securing a seven-wicket win to enter the final. Speaking to the media in the press conference after the match, Sangakkara was asked the most trending question in the cricketing universe at present: “Is Vaibhav Sooryavanshi ready for his senior India debut?” The coach didn’t mince his words, but he also dropped an interesting reply.
Sangakkara, who has been with Rajasthan since 2021, said that one can’t be sure if a player deserves an international cap until he or she actually gets it. But, in the case of Sooryavanshi, the former Sri Lanka captain is leaning towards a yes, having seen him thrash some of the finest bowlers in the world this IPL.
“I think you never know if anyone’s ready until they play. With everything Vaibhav’s shown against some of the best bowlers in the world, I think he’s more than ready to take on any challenge that you throw at him. And I’m sure that he’ll get that call-up very, very soon. He’s batted with a lot of maturity. He shouldered the responsibility of that opening partnership so well for us this season,” Sangakkara said.
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Sangakkara was also asked how he and the rest of the support staff at Rajasthan shield Vaibhav from social media, considering the sort of negative impact it can create on a player, especially on a teenager like him.
“We’ve got a good plan around him. We don’t clutter his mind too much. He comes to all our team meetings, he contributes, he listens, and he does a lot of homework. He practises well, and he reads bowlers well. He watches their videos and prepares himself really well. So, we don’t want to put any unnecessary thoughts into his head. I think a clear mind, batting with that courage, is exactly what we want to see from him,” he said.
Sooryavanshi ends his IPL 2026 campaign with the Orange Cap on his head, having aggregated 776 runs in 16 matches. However, the likes of Shubman Gill (722) and Sai Sudharsan (710) still have a chance to leapfrog the Rajasthan Royals star in the tally when they feature in the final on Sunday.
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Tushar Deshpande’s Brilliant Final Act Ensures Thrilling Win For RR Over Gujarat Titans
May 26, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Abner Uribe (45) celebrates the final out of in the eighth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Abner Uribe has been suspended one game and fined an undisclosed amount by Major League Baseball for his “inappropriate actions” in Tuesday’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Uribe has appealed the suspension, which means any disciplinary action is on hold until the appeals process has been completed and he will be available to pitch Friday when the Brewers open a three-game series against the host Houston Astros.
The suspension and fine come after the Milwaukee reliever made lewd gestures toward the Cardinals’ dugout in the eighth inning of Tuesday’s 6-0 win.
Uribe recorded an inning-ending strikeout with two runners aboard before making three crotch chops while facing the visitors’ dugout.
After the game, the 25-year-old apologized through an interpreter. However, he also pointed the finger at the Cardinals.
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“Everyone here knows me and knows who I am, and knows I have a bit of a history of being emotional out there,” he said. “I think first I owe an apology to the Brewers. I owe an apology to my teammates, to my manager, all the bosses of the team. I understand that’s unacceptable, to go out there and react in a way like that.
“But at the same time, I don’t think it’s professional for their manager to be making signs towards our dugout saying that he’s going to be hitting guys,” Uribe said, apparently referencing actions he saw from Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol during Monday’s series-opening 5-1 win by the Brewers.
“There was an event that occurred during the practice (Tuesday), too, and I don’t think that was right. So, I have my teammates’ back always,” Uribe added.
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When asked to elaborate on what happened during Tuesday’s batting practice, Uribe said, “I don’t have any comments toward that.”
Uribe is 2-2 with five saves and a 4.19 ERA in 21 relief appearances this season.
Jan 12, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Christian Kirk (13) runs against Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback James Pierre (42) during the second half of an AFC Wild Card Round game at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.
When the Minnesota Vikings embarked on free agency in March, their very first signing — one of the few — snagged cornerback James Pierre from the Pittsburgh Steelers. And for their troubles, Minnesota evidently acquired one of the league’s most clutch players, says Pro Football Focus.
PFF’s Bradley Locker identified the top 4th Quarter and Overtime performance across the business, and Pierre was included.
Pierre Brings Real CB3 Intrigue to Minnesota
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback James Pierre exchange jerseys after an AFC wild card matchup on Jan. 11, 2025, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The postgame moment followed a physical divisional playoff battle between longtime AFC North rivals, with Pierre and Jackson sharing respect after competing under postseason pressure in front of a national audience. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
PFF: Pierre Has the Juice with Games on the Line
Among names like Maxx Crosby and Colston Loveland, Locker tucked Pierre’s name into his analysis.
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“Across 79 fourth-quarter coverage snaps, Pierre allowed just two receptions for 19 yards. He also recorded six of his nine pass breakups during fourth quarters. His fourth-quarter PFF coverage grade of 91.3 ranked first in the NFL and likely would have been even higher had he managed to keep both feet in bounds on a near interception against his current team, the Minnesota Vikings, in Week 4,” he wrote.
“Among the receivers targeted while covered by Pierre in the fourth quarter were Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr. and Jerry Jeudy. None managed to record a catch against him.”
Locker also called out former Vikings defensive tackle Javon Hargrave for his late-game prowess. Hargrave now works for the Green Bay Packers.
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A Small Sample, but Vikings Will Take It
Seventy-nine snaps in the 4th Quarter isn’t much of a sample, but his gloriousness during those opportunities is certainly better than struggling in the 4th Quarter, for example. The Vikings will welcome all comers when it comes to clutch performance.
In fact, since the dawn of the Kevin O’Connell era in 2022, the Vikings have played 44 games decided by eight points or less, the second-most in the NFL behind the Atlanta Falcons. That’s right. Sixty-four percent of all Vikings games in the last four seasons have been decided by one score, going down the wire in one way or another.
If that trend continues, well, Minnesota now has a James Pierre to help close out opposing pass-catchers.
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The Numbers As a Whole
Pierre’s appeal begins with what the Vikings truly needed from their CB3. Minnesota wasn’t searching for a flashy player or another cornerback requiring extensive creativity. They needed a seasoned professional capable of handling outside snaps, tackling effectively, communicating clearly, minimizing mistakes, and supporting the secondary, and to hedge the bet in case Byron Murphy Jr. or Isaiah Rodgers miss time due to injury. Pierre meets all those requirements.
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase reaches for a touchdown catch ahead of Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback James Pierre during Week 3 action on Sept. 26, 2021, at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. Chase helped Cincinnati build a halftime lead with explosive plays against the Steelers’ secondary, while Pierre defended one of the NFL’s fastest-rising young receivers in a divisional showdown. Mandatory Credit: USA TODAY Sports
He logged nearly 400 defensive snaps last season and earned an impressive overall 86.8 PFF grade. Additionally, he allowed a passer rating of just 41.4, which Vikings fans will surely appreciate after the challenges with Jeff Okudah in 2025.
His background in Pittsburgh is another significant asset. Pierre spent six years under Mike Tomlin, and corners typically don’t last that long in Pittsburgh without good reason. The experience gives Minnesota solid confidence in his ability to adapt to Brian Flores’ defensive scheme.
While his ceiling is clear — he turns 30 in September, so we shouldn’t expect him to become a superstar at this stage in his career — if he can deliver one reliable season, it will justify the signing. Two or three would be a bonus. As a dependable veteran cornerback, he may be exactly what the defense needs.
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Free Agent EDGE Joey Bosa Gets the Nod
Because Minnesota traded Jonathan Greenard, along with a 7th-Round draft pick, to the Philadelphia Eagles in April for two 3rd-Rounders, the club may need a free-agent EDGE rusher for depth before the summer ends.
Conveniently, Joey Bosa is available, and — also conveniently — Bosa earned a spot on the clutch PFF list.
Buffalo Bills defensive end Joey Bosa stands on the field before facing the Atlanta Falcons on Oct. 13, 2025, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Bosa entered the matchup as one of Buffalo’s premier pass-rushing veterans, bringing playoff experience and edge pressure to a Bills defense expected to compete near the top of the AFC once again. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
“There may not have been a bigger gap between early-game and late-game performance in 2025 than the one displayed by Joey Bosa. After several injury-shortened seasons, it is fair to wonder whether his peak years are behind him, yet he still looked like a game-changing pass rusher once the fourth quarter arrived,” Locker explained about Bosa’s late-game heroics.
“Bosa earned a modest 59.5 PFF grade across the first three quarters of games last season before erupting for a 91.8 PFF grade in fourth quarters and overtime. Of Bosa’s 54 total pressures in 2025, 23 came during fourth quarters or overtime, along with three of his five sacks. His pressure rate jumped dramatically from 11.2% through the first three quarters to 22.6% once the fourth quarter began. Only Aidan Hutchinson generated pressure at a higher rate in those situations.”
Coming on the heels of weighlifting and athletics triumph, two judokas from Akwa Ibom have also qualified for the Commonwealth Games coming up in Glasgow later this year.
The Akwa Ibom State Ministry of Sports on Friday, May 29, 2026, received Commonwealth Trials medalists, Enku Ekuta and Immaculata Ufot, following their impressive outing at the 2026 Commonwealth Trials organized by the Nigeria Judo Federation in Abuja.
The athletes were formally presented to the Honourable Commissioner for Sports, Elder Paul Bassey, by the state Judo team led by coaches Kachi David and AdeSuji Adebiyi during a reception held at the Ministry of Sports.
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Enku Ekuta competed in the female -63kg category, while Immaculata Ufot featured in the female -57kg category at the trials held at the MKO Abiola National Stadium, Abuja, where the athletes distinguished themselves by qualifying for the Commonwealth Games.
Receiving the athletes and officials in his office, Elder Bassey paid glowing tributes to the judokas for once again placing Akwa Ibom State and Nigeria in positive national reckoning through hard work, discipline and determination.
The Sports helmsman stated that Judo has consistently remained one of the state’s most dependable sports anytime athletes are called upon for national assignments, expressing confidence in the team’s capacity to excel at bigger international competitions. He commended His Excellency Governor Umo Eno for laying the foundation for success “ I will never be tired of appreciating our sports friendly Governor for all the successes we are receiving so far. “The stand alone sports ministry, state sports festival and the availability of equipment for all the sports has started yielding excellent fruits” he said.
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He commended the Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Pastor Umo Eno, PhD, for his unwavering commitment to sports development and for instituting a reward system that continues to motivate athletes across the state to pursue excellence.
According to the Commissioner, the state government’s sustained investment in sports has continued to yield positive results, with Weightlifting, Track and Field, and now Judo recording medal-winning performances in recent national and international outings.
Speaking earlier, the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Sports, Mrs Rosemary Ubia, confidently described the Akwa Ibom Judo team as a gold-winning team, noting that their performances at the trials further justified the state government’s continuous investment in sports development.
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Mrs Ubia welcomed the athletes back from the trials, congratulated them for returning with medals and assured them of the Ministry’s sustained support as they prepare for future national and international engagements.
In her vote of thanks, Judoka Immaculata Ufot expressed profound appreciation to His Excellency the Governor for the encouragement, motivation and support extended to the athletes, noting that the gesture has inspired the team to train harder and remain committed to winning more medals for Akwa Ibom State and Nigeria.
Receiving the team alongside the Commissioner were the Director of Sports, Mrs Brigid Otton, and the Director in charge of the Coaching and Technical Unit, Coach Catherine Ekuta.
A new grand slam champion will be crowned at this year’s French Open after Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner were knocked out on consecutive days to blow the tournament apart.
Between them, Sinner, Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev have combined to win every men’s grand slam title since the start of 2021. But all four are now out of contention in Paris.
Alcaraz was unable to defend his title due to a wrist injury, with the Spaniard also set to miss Wimbledon, and an unexpected name is now confirmed to follow him.
Additionally, for the first time in the Open era, the last-16 will start without a former grand slam champion in the draw. Here, we look at the contenders in the men’s French Open.
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Alexander Zverev (2nd seed)
Unequivocally, this is the moment Zverev has been waiting for. A mainstay at the top of the sport for nearly a decade, the 29-year-old German has lost all three of his grand slam finals. Now, six years on from serving for the match in the US Open final against Dominic Thiem, surely this is his time to break the duck? With Djokovic, a possible semi-final opponent, now out, Zverev is the most experienced player left in the draw, and will be the favourite in every match he plays. That brings pressure, too.
Rafael Jodar (27)
A teenage winner at the French Open? What a story that would be, the first champion of such an age since Nadal in 2005. And some believe that Jodar, like his compatriot before him, is capable. The 19-year-old made his grand-slam debut at this year’s Australian Open, reaching the second round, and he has already bettered that effort by reaching round three in Paris. More pertinently, however, Jodar entered the French Open on the back of his first pro title, on the same surface on which Roland Garros is played: just last month, he won an ATP 250 trophy on Moroccan clay. He has the form, he has the youthful confidence, and he has zero pressure on his shoulders.
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Joao Fonseca (28)
He’s beaten Djokovic, now can Fonseca follow in the footsteps of three-time French Open champion Gustavo Kuerten and bring a grand slam title back to Brazil? The 19-year-old has the firepower to go all the way, as he proved in the closes stages of his unbelievable comeback against Djokovic from two sets down. He has the guts, too, having fought from two sets down in consecutive rounds. “There’s a lot of excitement around him and rightfully so,” Djokovic said. “Hopefully he can be the the next great thing and win slams.”
Casper Ruud (15)
Suddenly, the Norwegian might be dreaming of banishing his repeated Roland Garros heartbreak. He’s going to do it the hard way, though. After feeling “like a zombie” due to the heat in his first-round win, Ruud had to save match point as he fought from two sets down to beat Tommy Paul in the third round. He has the game, though, and the skill on this surface. In 2022 and 2023, Ruud made stellar runs to the final of the French Open, only to encounter Rafael Nadal then Novak Djokovic at the end. He will play Fonseca in the fourth-round.
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Felix Auger-Aliassime (4)
On the right side of the draw and positioned perfectly to attack a breakthrough in the grand slams. The Canadian could be on a collision course with French teenage sensation Moise Kouame should both advance to the fourth round. First up, American Brandon Nakashima, but the 25-year-old must surely be eyeing up a career-best performance at Roland Garros after two fourth rounds in 2022 and 2024, while his career-best performance in the grand slams is the semi-final in the US Open in 2021 and 2025.
Jakub Mensik (26)
After collapsing on court with heat exhaustion at the end of his second-round win, the 20-year-old Czech produced a stunning recovery to defeat eighth Alex de Minaur 0-6 6-2 6-2 6-3. Now resurrected, Mensik could be a threat to any player in the draw, having won a breakthrough title by beating Novak Djokovic in the final of the Miami Open last year.
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Matteo Berrettini (unseeded)
What a romantic story this would be. The Italian reached a Wimbledon final in 2021 before injury nightmare struck. He missed Roland Garros in four consecutive years but is now back in Paris for the first time since his top-10 peak. With one of the biggest serves in the game, Berrettini, now 30, can be a threat to any player and is the only player in the top half of the draw to have previously reached a grand slam final.
Frances Tiafoe (19)
The popular American, who has retrieved his racket from a fan after victory over Hubert Hurkacz following a social media plea, is the highest seed remaining in the ‘Sinner-quarter’ of the draw, but the worry is whether he will have enough left in the tank. He came through a five-set battle in nearly five hours against Hurkacz in round two but, while his grit and athleticism can take him far, he’ll need to be more clinical in his matches if he wants to go deep into the second week. For the 28-year-old, a first Grand Slam final is now a very realistic possibility.
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Moise Kouame (unseeded)
Why not? The 17-year-old wildcard is making a name for himself in Paris after becoming the youngest player to reach the third round of a grand slam since Rafael Nadal in 2003. He will have the backing of the French crowd, who were electric in his brilliant five-set win over Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the second round. Sure, he’s completely inexperienced, having won just one professional match before this week, but Kouame is a showman, capable of hitting winners from all angles.
Barangay Ginebra Gin Kings’ RJ Abarrientos during a game vs Rain or Shine Elasto Painters in the 2026 PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinals Game 5. –MARLO CUETO/INQUIRER.net
MANILA, Philippines—RJ Abarrientos has made a living with his offense in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup semifinals for Barangay Ginebra.
According to Abarrientos, the reigning Rookie of the Year, simply stuck to the game plan laid out by the coaching staff.
“My coaches told me that I needed to work on everything about my game,” said Abarrientos. “I just needed to double or triple my work to get open and be involved in our offense and defense.”
Abarrientos waxed hot from the field with 31 points that went with eight assists, four rebounds and two steals to help give Ginebra the pivotal 3-2 series lead.
The former Far Eastern University Tamaraws standout bounced back from a forgettable outing on Wednesday, when he scored just eight points in the Gin Kings’ 97-85 loss.
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Still, Abarrientos believes there is plenty to improve on heading into Game 6.
“We just have to keep getting aggressive on both offense and defense,” he said. “We have to fix everything we do on offense and our scorers on the bench are also very important. We have to keep going, we have our veterans to do that too.”
Abarrientos and the Gin Kings try to punch their ticket back to the PBA Finals on Sunday in Game 6 at Ynares Center Antipolo.
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Mar 3, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) reacts after his team scores against the Philadelphia 76ers during the second quarter at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The San Antonio Spurs might not even make the NBA Finals, but they’re the smartest prediction to win the NBA Championship.
On Saturday night, the Spurs will battle the Oklahoma City Thunder for the final time in Game 7 of their highly contested Western Conference Finals series.
Popular prediction markets like Kalshi, which allows users to trade outcomes of real-world events, are giving the Spurs just a 26% chance of winning the 2026 NBA championship. A contract on the Spurs to win the championship is 27¢. The Spurs are the longest shot remaining, and that’s what makes them the smart pick right now to win the Finals.
The Thunder have the best probability to win the championship, according to Kalshi, with 43% probability. Oklahoma City has been the class of the NBA since winning the championship last season, but there’s no guarantee that they won’t be upset against the Spurs in Game 7. Currently, the Thunder have a 59% chance of winning Game 7 on their home floor against the Spurs.
Based on value alone, the Spurs should be the pick. Even if you believe that Oklahoma City is the best of the final three teams remaining (which is probably true), Game 7s are weird. Anything can happen.
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The Spurs looked really good in Game 6. Phenom Victor Wembanyama flushed his poor outing in Game 5 by scoring 28 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. A big game from Wembanyama in Game 7 could be on the horizon, which would make San Antonio four wins away from the NBA Finals.
There isn’t a single team in the NBA that has figured out how to slow down Wembanyama. Even though the New York Knicks employ Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson, Wembanyama is a different breed. He shot 4-of-9 from deep in Game 6. Sure, Towns is athletic enough to guard the perimeter. But against a 7-foot-4 Wembanyama? Good luck with that.
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The Spurs are also in a great position – they’re playing without any pressure.
Oklahoma City faces a do-or-die Game 7 just to get back to the NBA Finals. The Knicks are carrying the weight of their 53-year championship drought. Meanwhile, the Spurs are just young enough to be playing without any serious expectations. Wembanayama is only 22. There will be plenty of more opportunities for him, which is what could make the Spurs so dangerous in Game 7.
Even though the Thunder and the Knicks have cold blooded killers in back-to-back NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Brunson, the Spurs have plenty of depth. The Knicks will be rested, so San Antonio will need to lean on Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, too.
The Spurs might not be the best team remaining from a talent standpoint. But they’re the smartest pick to make right now.
Colonial Country Club can be one of the tougher places to score on the PGA Tour, but with light winds and a soft golf course after rain this week, low scores have been on the menu at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Two of the last four winners at Colonial finished at single digits under par, but that will not be the case this week with friendly conditions in Fort Worth, Texas. The leader is already at 10 under and Friday’s second round saw the cut line end up at 3 under, the lowest at the event since 1983. Players have had to take on a more aggressive mindset in the first two rounds than Colonial typically allows.
Among those who have answered that call the best is Hideki Matsuyama. The 11-time PGA Tour winner moved into a tie for second at 9 under after shooting a 5-under 65 on Friday afternoon. Matsuyama, per usual, is doing much of his damage with his irons, but his short game and putting have complemented that approach play for a well-rounded start to his week.
Matsuyama flashed his all-world hands — or, in this case, hand — on the 14th to get up-and-down for par with a chip from an awkward lie above the bunker.
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Matsuyama has the most career wins of anyone in the field this week at Colonial, and after a gutting playoff loss earlier this season at the WM Phoenix Open, he’s put himself in position to challenge for win No. 12 this weekend in Fort Worth.
The forecast calls for winds to pick up a bit on Saturday, but at no point is it expected to really blow this week, which means Matsuyama and the rest of the leaders will need to keep the pedal down if they want to pick up the win. Because of the quality conditions, the leaderboard is incredibly condenseed with the leader just seven shots ahead of the cut line, and that will mean a lot of players who make the weekend will feel they have a real shot at the win.
The leader
1. Jordan Smith (-10)
The man they’re all chasing heading into Saturday is Jordan Smith, who put together back-to-back 65s to start the week and become the first to reach double figures under par. The 33-year-old Englishman is in his first full season on the PGA Tour and has been in contention before this season, finishing third at the Valspar Championship. He will try to hold his nerve and capture his first win on the PGA Tour this weekend, showing off an impressive all-around game so far this week, gaining strokes in all four phases of the game through two rounds. He’ll need to keep up that quality if he’s going to hold off the chase pack that features some strong veterans and rising stars.
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Weekend contenders
T2. Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Harman, Ryan Gerard, Michael Thorbjornsen (-9) T6. Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Akshay Bhatia, Alex Smalley (-8) T10. A.J. Ewart, Michael Brennan, Mackenzie Hughes, Brice Garnett, Mac Meissner (-7) T15. Ludvig Åberg, Gary Woodland, Keegan Bradley and seven others (-6) T33. Justin Thomas and 14 others (-4)
For a tournament that doesn’t boast the deepest field of the season, the cream has certainly risen to the top through two rounds of play. Joining Matsuyama in a share of second is another fellow former major winner in Harman and a pair of rising stars in Gerard and Thorbjornsen. Gerard has one career win at the Barracuda but is still searching for his first full-field win, while Thorbjornsen is still looking for his breakthrough victory on Tour.
Bhatia and Spaun are the only players in the top 10 with a win on the PGA Tour this season and will try to double up this weekend. Henley hasn’t quite had the year he’d hoped for to this point, but can change that in a hurry if he can back up a steady 66-66 start by cashing in for his sixth career win. Smalley is brimming with confidence after his T2 finish at the PGA Championship and can try to lean on that positive experience in a weekend in contention in Fort Worth.
Åberg came into the week as the favorite and after a putter change he’s positioned himself in solid position going into the weekend, but he will need to find that extra gear if he’s going to get his third career win. Thomas will need something special on the weekend to factor in for the win, but he’ll have a chance with an early tee time on Saturday to go out and post a low number before the leaders get going.
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A.J. Ewart wins the “most improved” award from Thursday to Friday, shaking off an opening 70 to fire a tournament-best 7-under 63 to jump into contention — with some help from this ace on the 16th.
Notable players who missed the cut
Pierceson Coody (-2)
Brandt Snedeker (-2)
Tony Finau (E)
Harry Hall (+2)
Rickie Fowler (+3)
Max Greyserman (+5)
Sungjae Im (+6)
A cut line at 3 under isn’t very forgiving, and while many of the top names in the field gravitated towards the top of the leaderboard this week, there were some surprising early exits. Fowler is probably the biggest stunner, as a back nine 42 sent him tumbling from 4 under and in the hunt to 3 over and a Friday flight home in a hurry. Im perhaps ran out of gas this week after spending last week in contention at TPC Craig Ranch and will get a couple extra days of rest after a rough two rounds of play in Fort Worth.
Updated 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge odds, picks
Hideki Matsuyama (7-1)
Russell Henley (15/2)
Jordan Smith (15/2)
Brian Harman (19/2)
J.J. Spaun (10-1)
Michael Thorbjornsen (10-1)
Alex Smalley (12-1)
Ryan Gerard (12-1)
Akshay Bhatia (15-1)
Ludvig Åberg (15-1)
Matsuyama would be my pick right now, but there are some opportunities to dig for some value a bit further down the odds sheet with such a bunched leaderboard. Gerard is intriguing at 12-1 being just one shot back, and perhaps Åberg at 15-1, nearly double his opening odds, is better conditioned to get a win chasing from behind rather than trying to hold onto a lead.
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