If you’re thinking of betting on NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick, don’t waste your time. 

At -20000 odds — meaning it takes a $200 bet to win one dollar — Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite. The Indiana quarterback is practically signed, sealed and delivered to the Las Vegas Raiders.

But things get more interesting from there.

“When someone is that big a favorite, the conversation seems to shift to pick No. 2. And it has,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “That’s the most-bet prop, the biggest-bet market right now.”

Feazel helps break down the most notable 2026 NFL Draft odds, ahead of the Thursday-Saturday event in Pittsburgh.

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Information Age

Before addressing the No. 2 overall pick, it’s first worth noting how NFL Draft betting differs from what bookmakers typically face.

“In the trading department, we like to use math,” Feazel said, alluding to how odds are set for games. “But the NFL Draft is information-based. When a bet comes in on information, the difficulty is deciding whether it’s a rumor or if the bettor on the other side has information. And whether a rumor is true or not.

“When you take math out of the equation, it normally isn’t that helpful to us.”

Sharp bettors often heavily engage in NFL Draft odds, and they tend to do well. It’s a tough event for sportsbooks to win.

“We have won sometimes, and we’re certainly trying to win. But we’re not expecting a lot of the information to go our way,” Feazel said.

Two-Man Battle

The No. 2 overall pick is still very much in flux, although it’s clearly a two-man battle between Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese and Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey.

It’s so close, in fact, that as of Tuesday afternoon, Reese and Bailey are -115 co-favorites at Caesars. After those two, odds stretch out to +6000 for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.

No surprise, information is affecting this NFL prop bet.

“It was starting to look like David Bailey was gonna be the No. 2 pick, so we moved him to the favorite. But then it was thought that the Jets were maybe trying to trade the pick,” Feazel said.

Don’t be surprised if Reese and Bailey’s odds continue to be volatile. And if a trade happens at No. 2, things could get much murkier.

“There could be someone who’s not even expected to be in the mix,” Feazel said.

QBs or Not QBs

Among the slew of NFL Draft prop bets available, one of the most popular is on the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round.

This year, the expectations are quite low. Pretty much every sportsbook has the Over/Under at 1.5. However, the Over 1.5 is a growing favorite, now at odds of -225, with Under 1.5 a +175 underdog.

Mendoza is obviously a lock. The deciding factor is whether Alabama QB Ty Simpson is deemed first-round worthy.

“It’s kind of been going up and down. And it correlates to the price of Simpson to be drafted in the first round,” Feazel said.

In fact, it directly correlates. On the separate NFL Draft prop of players to be first-round picks, Simpson is -225.

However, there is a difference of opinion among bettors.

“It’s been two-way action, all based on speculation on Simpson,” Feazel said. “There are rumors that the Cardinals or someone else might be interested.”

Arizona has the No. 3 overall pick — which it certainly won’t use on Simpson — then the second pick of the second round, No. 34 overall. The thought is that the Cards might try to trade up from that No. 34 slot, into the first round, to draft Simpson.

But if you think Arizona holds pat and Simpson slips to Round 2, then there might be some betting value on Under 1.5 QBs. At +175, a $100 bet would net $175 profit (total payout $275).

More Popular Plays

Feazel said three more markets consistently draw attention in NFL Draft prop bets: players to be picked in the top 5, top 10 or the first round.

“Bettors are trying to find value at a plus-money price,” Feazel said. “One thing we saw recently, with the Giants sneaking back into the top 10, was interest on Jordyn Tyson, the wide receiver from Arizona State.”

Tyson had hamstring issues that kept him out of the NFL combine and ASU’s initial pro day. And previous injuries are a concern, as well, including a multi-ligament knee tear in 2022.

On Friday, though, he had a private workout that, by all accounts, went well. And the rumors are that the Giants are a strong possible suitor, after they traded Pro Bowl defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals in exchange for the 10th pick.

“Early on, we had Tyson at +220 to go in the first 10 picks. Now, we’re at -375,” Feazel said of the wideout going from an underdog to a favorite in that market. “He’s expected to be picked early.”

Tyson’s top-10 prop ties into the market for the number of wide receivers to go in the first round. Feazel said that Caesars opened Over 5.5 as a modest -125 favorite, but those odds are now out to -190.

Also, Caesars opened the prop of offensive linemen drafted in the first round at 7.5, with odds of -115 on both the Over and Under — a pick ‘em. However, Over 7.5 is now a substantial -280 favorite.

“A lot of people are expecting a big run of offensive linemen, from picks 10 to 20,” Feazel said.

The Honourable Commissioner for Sports, Akwa Ibom Ibom State, Elder Paul Bassey, has reaffirmed the state’s strong support for Team Nigeria Judo following the arrival of the National contingent in Nairobi, Kenya, ahead of the 2026 African Senior Judo Championships scheduled to begin on April 24.

Leading Nigeria’s medal hopefuls are Akwa Ibom’s Enku Ekuta and Immaculata Ufot, whose inclusion in the squad has been described by the Commissioner as a reflection of the state’s growing footprint in elite sports development.

Bassey, a firm advocate of high-performance athlete development, noted that the state’s representatives departed with adequate preparation and carry the backing of both Akwa Ibom and the nation as they prepare for the continental showdown involving athletes from 35 African countries.

“When Team Nigeria steps onto the mats in Nairobi, they carry the hopes of over 200 million people, and we are proud that Akwa Ibom is strongly represented in that mission,” Bassey said. “Our prayers are with the entire team for a successful outing, a historic podium finish, and, most importantly, injury-free competition.”

He emphasized that the administration’s athlete-first policy remains central to its sports development agenda, ensuring sustained support for athletes representing Nigeria at international competitions.

Ekuta, competing in the -63kg category, demonstrates outstanding performance marked by strength, discipline, and precision. She consistently excels in competitions, showcasing tactical mastery, quick reflexes, and determination, earning respect through impressive victories and steady improvement on the judo mat. Ufot in the -52kg division, is regarded as one of the emerging talents in the national setup, earning her place through a highly competitive domestic pathway.

The African Senior Judo Championships, sanctioned by the African Judo Union (AJU), will serve as a key ranking tournament, with Nigeria’s performance expected to influence its standing on the continental medal table.

As competition approaches, the Ministry of Sports has continued to mobilize support for Team Nigeria, with confidence high that the Akwa Ibom duo will play a decisive role in the country’s quest for continental success.

A brutal Grand ⁠Depart for the ​2027 Tour de France Femmes will culminate in a historic team time trial through the streets of London, ​organisers said on Monday.

The Tour de France and the women‘s version will both begin in Britain in 2027 — the first time both races have started in the same foreign country in the same year.

The British start ​promises to ‌be a landmark moment for women’s cycling, with the three-day Grand Depart featuring ⁠demanding terrain in the hills of northern England before a showpiece finale in the capital.

After two days of punishing climbing in the Peak ‌District, the peloton will head south to London for an 18km team time trial ⁠that will conclude on The Mall, marking the first time the Tour de France Femmes has included the format.

“It’s a huge honour to come to such a special capital city ​like London and we wanted to create something that means we could spend ‌the whole day in the city,” Race Director Marion Rousse said at a press conference near London Bridge.

“The United Kingdom has already shown its passion for the Tour, and these stages will once again showcase the energy ‌of the crowds, the beauty of the landscapes and the growing importance of women’s cycling on the world stage.”

Route details of the first two ​stages from Leeds to Manchester and then Manchester to Sheffield were unveiled on Monday with the Grand Depart being compared to the memorable 2014 Tour de France that also began in Leeds and attracted ​massive crowds in Yorkshire and the Peak District.

A ‘lumpy’ opening stage of 85km on July 30 will ​be followed by a second stage taking in many ascents including the ​winding Snake Pass and featuring almost 3,000 metres of climbing.

Sheffield’s Cote de Jenkin Road — a leg-burning one-kilometre climb in Sheffield famously attacked by Italy’s ​Vincenzo Nibali in 2014 — will add to the stage two drama.

The detailed route of the London stage will be announced later this year.

Organisers anticipate the three days of the 2027 Grand Depart of the Tour de France Femmes will be the most attended women’s sporting event ever staged in Britain.

“Everyone remembers 2014 but maybe ⁠this could be bigger and better,” Lucy Jones, Project Director for Grand Depart GB, said. “We want to go out with a ⁠bang in London.”

The ​2027 men’s Tour de France Grand Depart will begin in Edinburgh with a second stage in the Lake District to Liverpool and a third day around Wales.

(FRANCE 24 with REUTERS)

England footballer Jude Bellingham has bought a one per cent stake in The Hundred franchise Birmingham Phoenix, the Press Association understands.

The Real Madrid midfielder, who began his career with Birmingham, is thought to have invested around £800,000 in the Edgbaston-based team.

The Phoenix franchise was valued at around £82million after American investment fund Knighthead Capital acquired a 49 per cent stake during the sales process initiated by the England and Wales Cricket Board, organiser of The Hundred, last year.

County host club Warwickshire retained the other 51 per cent. It is understood Bellingham has bought around a 0.5 per cent stake from each party.

Bellingham, 22, is known to be a cricket lover and played the game for Hagley in Worcestershire as a junior.

As a footballer, he came through the youth ranks at Birmingham before joining Borussia Dortmund in 2020 and then signing for Real Madrid three years ago.

The deal, which was first reported by The Cricketer, is set to be officially confirmed on Wednesday.

The New York Mets, losers of 11 straight, are expected to activate Juan Soto and have him back in the lineup for Wednesday night’s game against the Minnesota Twins, manager Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday. Soto has not played since suffering a right calf strain on April 3.

Mendoza said Soto would go through a full day of baseball activity Tuesday and he’ll be back if all goes well.

“It definitely helps, but we cannot put all the pressure on one player,” the manager said. “We’ve got a lot of good players in there who, unfortunately, are going through it for quite a bit now. Yes, his presence in the lineup, nobody is going to deny that. But putting all the pressure of ‘oh, we have Juan Soto now and all of a sudden we’re going to start winning,’ that’s not fair for him either.” 

The Mets won their first three games without Soto, but have since lost the last 11 games. They averaged 4.38 runs per game with him in the starting lineup and just 2.64 runs per game without him. Nine times in the 14 games without Soto, the Mets scored two runs or fewer. It has been a major slog, offensively.

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Soto’s absence alone doesn’t explain the skid — the Mets have a lot of underperforming players — but his return will boost the offense and perhaps spark the team. They certainly need it. Soto authored a .355/.412/.516 batting line before his injury and he still leads their position players in WAR.

The 27-year-old Silver Slugger hit .263/.396/.525 with 43 home runs and 38 stolen bases last season, his first with the Mets. That earned him a third-place finish in the National League MVP voting. Soto joined the Mets on a record 15-year, $756 million contract in December 2024.

On the pitching side of things, the Mets are also calling up Christian Scott, who has been out since July 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Mendoza announced. Scott will start Thursday and David Peterson will remain in the bullpen, where he was shifted last rotation.

The Mets have the National League’s worst record at 7-15. No team in baseball history has lost 15 of their first 22 games and rallied to post a 90-win season.

The NFL Draft is here, and the Fantasy landscape is about to change dramatically. Some draft picks will work in our favor, while others will cause chaos. It’s the same drill every season, and it’s fun to react to the rookies.

Prior to the NFL Draft, we have our wish list for each NFC North team — pros and cons — of what we want to see happen. While the obvious choice is upgraded offensive lines across the board, we won’t get into that here. We also want to avoid as many crowded backfields as possible.

Ultimately, we want situations that will make our Fantasy rosters better. Hopefully, that’s what will happen when the NFL Draft is done.

Chicago

Picks: Round 1 (25 overall), Round 2 (57), Round 2 (60), Round 3 (89), Round 4 (129), Round 7 (239), Round 7 (241)
Team Needs: DL, S, OT, CB, EDGE, IOL, WR
Fantasy Want: Wide receiver
Fantasy Don’t Want: Running back depth

I’d be OK if the Bears avoided taking skill players in the NFL Draft and stayed with who they have in all the key spots. By trading D.J. Moore to Buffalo, Chicago opened the door for Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze to get plenty of targets, along with standout sophomore tight end Colston Loveland. The backfield is also fine with the duo of D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, and the Bears have the chance to be one of the top offenses for Fantasy managers with coach Ben Johnson and quarterback Caleb Williams. That said, Chicago will likely add a receiver at some point to replace Moore, especially since the current No. 3 receiver is Kalif Raymond. Ideally, that rookie receiver won’t take too many targets away from Burden, Odunze, and Loveland, and I’m excited to draft one or all of that trio in most of my leagues this year.

Detroit

Picks: Round 1 (17 overall), Round 2 (50), Round 4 (118), Round 4 (128), Round 5 (157), Round 5 (181), Round 6 (205), Round 6 (213), Round 7 (222)
Team Needs: OT, IOL, EDGE, DL, LB, CB
Fantasy Want: Running back depth
Fantasy Don’t Want: Wide receiver

It says the Fantasy Want for the Lions is running back depth, but that’s really more of an insurance policy in case something happens to Jahmyr Gibbs. While Isiah Pacheco would be OK as a replacement, he’s let us down as a Fantasy running back in the past two seasons since suffering a broken leg in 2024 with the Chiefs. There might be a rookie with more upside, and that’s something to monitor during the NFL Draft. I don’t want to see Detroit add a rookie receiver since I love the trio of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa. Along with tight end Sam LaPorta, who should benefit with new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, the Lions have plenty of pass catchers to support Jared Goff — and Fantasy managers. We don’t need another distraction in the passing game in Detroit.

Green Bay

Picks: Round 2 (52 overall), Round 3 (84), Round 4 (120), Round 5 (153), Round 5 (160), Round 6 (201), Round 7 (236), Round 7 (255)
Team Needs: CB, DL, IOL, OT, LB, EDGE
Fantasy Want: Running back depth
Fantasy Don’t Want: Wide receiver

The Packers lost some key pieces on offense this offseason with Romeo Doubs (Patriots), Dontayvion Wicks (Philadelphia) and Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) all joining new teams. That’s great news for the receivers left in Green Bay, including Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed, along with tight end Tucker Kraft, and we want to see concentrated targets for that quartet. But it’s not a bad idea for the Packers to add a backup running back for Josh Jacobs with Wilson gone, especially since MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring) has a hard time staying healthy. Jacobs missed two games in 2025, and the right handcuff in Green Bay could be worth a late-round pick in all leagues.

Minnesota

Picks: Round 1 (18 overall), Round 2 (49), Round 3 (82), Round 3 (97), Round 5 (163), Round 6 (196), Round 7 (234), Round 7 (235), Round 7 (244)
Team Needs: LB, CB, S, DL, WR, QB, EDGE, TE
Fantasy Want: Running back depth
Fantasy Don’t Want: Wide receiver

The two questions I have about the Vikings are who will start at quarterback, although we all expect Kyler Murray to win the job. And what’s going to happen with the backfield after Aaron Jones stayed in Minnesota? It would be great if the Vikings left Jones and Jordan Mason in defined roles, with Mason playing on running downs and near the goal line, while Jones handles passing-downs work. But it will likely be a split again, like we saw in 2025, and it could be frustrating for Fantasy managers unless one suffers an injury. Now, despite that potential frustration, I’d be OK if Minnesota decided to add a running back of the future since Jones is 31 and Mason is more of a backup than a featured option. I don’t want to see another receiver join the Vikings so Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson can soak up targets. But with Jalen Nailor now in Las Vegas, Minnesota could add another rookie receiver in the NFL Draft for depth.

Despite all of his accolades, Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez has been accused of running “scared” and denying boxing fans the fight they “deserve”.

Having become a four-weight world champion, the 35-year-old has already cemented his legacy as a future Hall of Famer and one of the greatest Mexican fighters in history.

Even at this late stage in his career, though, there remains a desire to compete at the highest level and seek further challenges.

This much was evident during his showdown with Terence Crawford last September, when Canelo lost a unanimous decision but nonetheless showed glimpses of world-class flair.

He now appears determined to reclaim a portion of his undisputed super-middleweight crown on September 12, when he is set to enter a world title fight in Saudi Arabia.

Among the names being mentioned for such an occasion is Christian Mbilli, who was elevated from ‘interim’ to full WBC super-middleweight champion following Crawford’s retirement.

But while Mbilli represents a solid opponent, many will find it difficult to forget Canelo’s lack of enthusiasm for a clash with David Benavidez.

While the current WBC light-heavyweight champion was still campaigning at 168lbs, he repeatedly called for a shot at the Mexican but was never presented with such an opportunity.

For that reason, Benavidez struggles to see their fight ever materialising, telling Come And Talk 2 Me that he believes Canelo has actively avoided him.

“He’s scared – he has no balls. That’s what it is. I give Canelo all the respect – he’s done everything he’s done – but, at the end of the day, I was the No.1 contender in two weight classes for a long, long time.

“He has shown that he doesn’t want to fight me. It’s really a shame because this is a fight everybody wants to see. This is a fight that the fans deserve.

“I believe in myself and my skills 100%, so I feel like, if he says he’s the baddest man on the planet… why not give the fans what they want to see?”

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Given that Benavidez’s next outing will see him challenge unified cruiserweight champion Gilberto Ramirez on May 2, it is becoming increasingly less likely that he will ever collide with Canelo, though a promise to return to light-heavyweight, given Canelo has competed in that division twice before, leaves fans some hope.

The 2026 NFL Draft class is nothing if not unique. I’ve referred to it as an evaluators draft throughout the spring because almost no prospect comes without red flags in his profile. To top it off, the strongest position group in the class, linebacker, is one that’s been devalued at the NFL level and rarely goes early anymore.

I’m not even going to try to act like I know how this draft is going to play out, but that’s exactly what makes it one of the most interesting drafts I can remember. No one has any clue what’s going to happen this year.

The fatal flaws of the EDGE class

Your favorite edge rusher in this class probably has a glaring red flag that could limit his success at the next level. With Rueben Bain Jr. and Cashius Howell, it’s obviously the sub-31-inch arms. With Arvell Reese, it’s the lack of reps. With David Bailey, it’s his bend and play vs. the run. With Keldric Faulk, it’s his production. With R Mason Thomas, it’s his size. With Akheem Mesidor, it’s his age and modest tools. And that goes on down the line.

If they are all flawed, how do we stack them up? As I do with every position in the NFL Draft, I prefer the prospects who still produced despite their flaws. That’s why Bain tops my list. His 30⅞-inch arms were such weapons on tape at Miami that it’s hard to see them suddenly becoming a huge issue in the NFL.

Reese checks in next because he produced when called upon as a pass rusher, and he never even got practice reps doing it. He was so freaky that it didn’t matter. That bodes well for what will happen when the 20-year-old gets a full workload rushing the passer.

After those two, Bailey and Mesidor are the only other edge rushers in my top 32. There’s no doubt when you watch their tape that they produced. While I think they have more worrisome athletic limitations than Bain and Reese, they are both more than capable athletes who can get the job done in the NFL.

Renner’s final NFL Draft big board: Ranking 250 prospects in a wild 2026 class

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Mike Renner

Tackle or guard?

There’s a real chance the 2026 draft ties the 2024 draft for the modern record with nine offensive linemen coming off the board in the first round. Whether we see seven offensive tackles taken in Round 1, though, will come down to how you categorize them. Three of the top offensive linemen in this draft, and potentially the top three off the board, all come with questions about whether they project best at tackle or guard in the NFL.

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Kadyn Proctor

BAMA • OT • #74

Five sacks and 36 pressures allowed over past two seasons (12 sacks and 36 pressures allowed as freshman in 2023)

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At nearly 6-feet-7 with 33⅜-inch arms, there’s nothing from a frame perspective that suggests Kadyn Proctor would be better suited at guard than tackle besides his listed weight. While the recent track record of Alabama tackles drafted in the top 10 — J.C. Latham, Evan Neal and Jedrick Wills — isn’t helping him in evaluators’ eyes, it’s worth noting that coach Kalen DeBoer brought a much more pass-happy attack to Tuscaloosa. In fact, Proctor had the second-most true pass sets of any tackle in college football last year.

From a performance perspective, most of his worrisome reps in the pass game came early in the season, when he admittedly was playing heavier than he should have been. Later in the season, that was no issue. He handled Oklahoma speed-rusher R Mason Thomas in their matchup, which is a great litmus test to me for whether he’d need to kick inside. Because of that, he’s sticking at tackle until I’m shown otherwise in the NFL.

Verdict: Tackle

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While Proctor’s potential move to guard was tied to athleticism, Spencer Fano‘s decidedly is not. For my money, he’s the single best mover in the offensive line class. His 4.91-second 40-yard dash and 7.34-second 3-cone at the NFL Scouting Combine back that up.

Fano’s move to the interior revolves entirely around his hotly contested arm length. He went from measuring 32⅛-inch arms — which would be the shortest of any tackle in the NFL — at the combine to 32⅞-inch arms — which are in range with numerous current starting tackles — at his pro day. We may never know his true arm length, but there’s another data point that makes me think he won’t be a Will Campbell situation. Fano’s wingspan measured 80¼ inches at the combine. That’s nearly 3 inches longer than Campbell’s and even longer than All-Pro tackle Rashawn Slater.

Given how well Fano can mitigate his length issues with his quickness, there’s little reason to think he has to move inside in the NFL.

Verdict: Tackle

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From a purely aesthetic standpoint, Francis Mauigoa presents as the most guard-like. He carries most of his 329 pounds in his lower half, and it shows in the run game. While his foot speed is more than adequate to stay at tackle, locating in space is easily one of the weakest parts of his game. On the flip side, his biggest strength is his ability to end reps early when he gets his vise-grip hands on defenders.

That combination makes me think his ceiling is clearly higher at guard, and that’s where I’d start him early on. He can certainly be a starting tackle, but I don’t think his ceiling would be nearly as high there.

Verdict: Guard

Contextualizing age

This class, more than any I can remember, will test how well the NFL can project developmental curves. That’s because there’s a healthy share of 20-year-olds as well as 24-plus-year-olds among the top 50 picks. The top prospects who won’t be able to legally drink on draft day are as follows:

• Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame — 20.90 years old on April 23
• Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami — 20.88
• Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama — 20.88
• Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina — 20.81
• Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee — 20.68
• Connor Lew, IOL, Auburn — 20.65
• Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State — 20.65
• Keldric Faulk, EDGE/DL, Auburn — 20.63

No, those aren’t typos. Mauigoa and Proctor share the same birthday (June 4), as do Lew and Reese (Aug. 30).

On the flip side, here’s a list of potential top 100 picks who are close to or already able to legally rent a car:

• Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami — 25.05
• Romello Height, EDGE, Texas Tech — 25.03
• Keagen Trost, IOL, Missouri — 25.02
• Keionte Scott, CB, Miami — 24.70
• Nate Boerkircher, TE, Texas A&M — 24.63
• Treydan Stukes, CB, Arizona — 24.61
• Emmanuel Pregnon, IOL, Oregon — 24.55
• Logan Jones, IOL, Iowa — 24.48
• Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU — 24.21
• Zakee Wheatley, S, Penn State — 24.15

That’s 10 guys, with a handful more who should come off the board early on Day 3. When evaluating 20-year-olds compared with 24-plus-year-olds, it’s important to remember it’s not apples to apples. The skill and physical development from someone’s redshirt sophomore year to his redshirt senior year is typically substantial. With guys like Pregnon or Stukes, we got to see the more finished product in a way we didn’t with Lew and Cisse.

For me, the finished product for players like Mesidor and Stukes already looks like a plus NFL starter, so I don’t worry too much about what’s left in their development. But when I still have questions about how someone’s game will translate and he is already five or six years into his college career, I’ll err on the side of youth.

One-year wonder QBs

With the Ty Simpson buzz reaching a crescendo, along with some interesting takes in the national media earlier this month, his draft range seems to have the widest spread of anyone heading into Round 1. That’s because so many people differ on what to make of a quarterback who only impressed for one year (really more like nine games).

Bill Parcells’ famous quarterback rules are clear about which side of the debate he’d fall on: three-year starter, 30-plus starts and 23-plus wins were a must. The Big Tuna saw how much in-game experience mattered at the most complex position in all of sports. The modern track record tends to back that up.

Here’s how recent first-round quarterbacks with limited starting experience have fared:

• Anthony Richardson (No. 4 overall, 2023)
• Trey Lance (No. 3 overall, 2021)
• Mac Jones (No. 15 overall, 2021)
• Kyler Murray (No. 1 overall, 2019)
• Dwayne Haskins (No. 15 overall, 2019)
• Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2 overall, 2017)
• Ryan Tannehill (No. 8 overall, 2012)
• Cam Newton (No. 1 overall, 2011)

The biggest success story is obviously Cam Newton, but even he started a year in junior college. Kyler Murray and Ryan Tannehill have had successful seasons in their careers, although I’m not sure their respective fan bases would take either again if given a do-over.

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So how does Simpson’s tape stack up to those who came before him? While I wasn’t formally scouting when Tannehill and Newton were prospects, Simpson’s pro-readiness clearly trumps that of Richardson, Lance and Haskins. He’s much more physically gifted than Mac Jones and arguably on par with Trubisky, although with a smaller frame. I compared his capabilities to Fernando Mendoza’s earlier this draft season and remain confident Simpson will be a first-rounder.

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Cole Payton

NDST • QB • #9

2025: Set NDSU single-season records for pass efficiency (193.8), yards per attempt (12.1) and total offense (268.9 yards per game, 9.71 yards per play)

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An underrated aspect of this quarterback class is that Simpson isn’t the only one-year wonder. North Dakota State’s Cole Payton fits that mold. While Payton was in his fifth year and Lance was in his second in their lone seasons as signal-callers for the Bison, there’s no comparison statistically. Payton wiped the floor with Lance’s efficiency numbers, as you can see below:

Payton was not only accurate on tape, he showed high-end athleticism and a solid NFL arm. He doesn’t have the intriguing youth or the cannon that Lance had, but Payton should easily be a top-five quarterback off the board this weekend.

2026 NFL Draft QB mock: Predicting landing spot for the top 10 quarterbacks

John Breech

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Who is WR1?

This year is the most hotly contested WR1 class I can remember. Five different receivers all have a legitimate case to be WR1. Each has a distinct trait he does better than the other four, so it ultimately comes down to what you value most.

These are tough calls, especially without projecting a specific scheme or role. In the end, I tend to lean toward separators. It’s the hardest part of playing receiver. That’s why Concepcion ended up as my WR1. He’s a supreme athlete who can get open at every level of the field and a much tougher route runner than his 196 pounds suggest. As long as you get the role right in this draft class, though, I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the five listed above.

The drops are real, but KC Concepcion is a first-round pick

Dave Richard

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Sleepers

First off, don’t be the sleeper police. No one likes the sleeper police. I’ll admit some of these aren’t deep cuts, so I’ll explain why I included each. These are prospects who are under the radar for one reason or another and deserve more recognition.

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Eli Heidenreich is everyone’s favorite Day 3 running back. I included him because when most people hear “Navy” and “draft,” they’re more likely to think of World War II than the NFL, but Heidenreich is out to change that. No Navy prospect has gone in the top 100 since guard Bob Reifsnyder was selected No. 45 overall by the Los Angeles Rams in 1959! The closest the program has come since is running back Napoleon McCallum, who went No. 108 overall to the Los Angeles Raiders in 1986.

I’m not saying Heidenreich will go in the top 100, but he should at least come off the board before a long snapper. He’s the best receiver in the running back class. Heck, receiver may even be his best position in the NFL after catching 51 passes for 941 yards last season. I’m intrigued by his potential physical development without the cardio rigors of the Naval Academy. From a testing standpoint, he was nearly identical to Christian McCaffrey coming out.

He’ll be a very interesting prospect to track throughout his career.

Nate Boerkircher isn’t exactly a deep sleeper, coming from a blue-blood program and off an impressive Senior Bowl. I included him because he’s never been a full-time starter in college, yet I think he could become one in the NFL. 

He has exceptional ball skills (ask Notre Dame fans) and posted the second-fastest 10-yard split in the tight end class (1.58 seconds) behind Kenyon Sadiq. At the Senior Bowl, he was clearly the best tight end in one-on-ones. I don’t know where he’ll go, but he’ll find a role wherever he lands.

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Kaleb Proctor is another small-school prospect gaining traction. I see more than just a fun Day 3 pick, though, as he checked in at No. 71 on my final board. He has elite twitch, shown by his 4.79 40-yard dash, 1.68 10-yard split and 9-foot-5 broad jump at the combine. His competition level was low, but he showed the same high-end pass-rushing ability against LSU last fall and at Shrine Bowl practices. You can’t coach what he has.

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While Proctor has drawn plenty of attention in this defensive tackle class, Jayden Loving is still flying under the radar despite freaky testing numbers of his own. At 6-foot-1 and 309 pounds, he ran a 4.82 40-yard dash with a 1.64 10-yard split. He also posted a 35-inch vertical, a 7.15 3-cone and 33 bench reps. You won’t find many better testing profiles at defensive tackle in NFL history. 

Loving bounced from Bethune-Cookman to Western Kentucky before landing at Wake Forest for one season. His explosiveness consistently showed up in the run game, where it was hard to keep him out of the backfield. He needs serious skill development, but not much to make an impact in the NFL.

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If Arizona State tackle Max Iheanachor’s late start in football intrigues you, consider Bakyne Coly the Day 3 version. He began at Lawrence Tech — an NAIA school — to play basketball before switching to football. He transferred to Purdue in 2023 and finally started this past season. 

While he was rough early, he flashed late with strong reps against high-end competition like Ohio State, Washington and Indiana. He moves well for the position and has ideal size (6-foot-6, 307 pounds) and length (33¼-inch arms) to stick at tackle. He’ll be a late Day 3 pick, but he’s easily my favorite developmental tackle in the class.

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Jackson Kuwatch was a former top recruit at Ohio State but got caught in a position logjam that included two top-10 picks in this year’s class. While he may not match the athletic profile of Arvell Reese or Sonny Styles, Kuwatch is still a freak in his own right. 

His 1.5 10-yard split is the fastest ever recorded for an off-ball linebacker, according to MockDraftable. That shows up on tape, where he’s incredibly nimble working through traffic at the second level. He’ll have to be a pure weakside linebacker and needs more experience, but there’s plenty to work with here.