The FIFA World Cup has seen ‘Paul the Octopus’ – the famous eight-limbed soothsayer. In this age of AI and machine learning, predicting a World Cup winner has become more refined. Take, for example, Achim Zeileis, Professor of Statistics, University of Innsbruck. He has used “machine learning algorithm and subsequent simulations are fueled by data, expert knowledge and statistical models” to predict the likely winner of the FIFA World Cup 2026 – the biggest edition of the marquee event so far.

What Was the Process Followed to Predict the Winner?

Achim Zeileis says his algorithm proceeds in two steps. “In the first, sophisticated statistical models and expert insight from bookmakers and transfer markets are combined to determine the strengths of all teams and their players. In the second step, a machine learning algorithm decides how to best combine the strength estimates with other information about the teams,” he wrote in The Independent.

“We ran the simulation 100,000 times to determine the tournament’s most likely course. The results show that Spain is the favourite for the title with a winning probability of 14.5%, closely followed by England and France, each at 12.4%, and Germany at 11.2%.”

“Portugal and Argentina also have good chances of winning the title, at 8.9% and 8.2%, respectively.”

A Deep Dive

Zeileis says his algorithm took note of four variables.

“First, all national matches over the past eight years are the basis for a “retrospective” estimate of the teams’ strengths. Second, a “prospective” strength estimate is obtained from quoted odds of various international bookmakers, reflecting their expert opinions about the upcoming tournament,” he wrote further.

“Third, ratings of the individual players are produced based on their contributions to goals at the club and national levels. And finally, the current quality and future potential of the players are reflected in their expected market values. These are available from the Transfermarkt website, which uses a wisdom-of-the-crowd approach to estimate the unknown real market values.

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IPL 2026 News | RCB Outplay CSK For 2nd Win On Trot, Ruturaj Gaikwad & Co Suffer 3rd Loss

Nigeria’s Super Eagles produced a spirited performance but suffered a narrow 2-1 defeat to Portugal in an international friendly match played in Leiria on Wednesday night.

Before kick-off, Super Eagles midfielder Alex Iwobi was honoured for making his 100th appearance for Nigeria. The Chairman of the National Sports Commission, Shehu Dikko, alongside NFF Executive Committee member Sharif Rabiu Inuwa, presented him with a special framed shirt to mark the milestone.

Portugal, led by football legend Cristiano Ronaldo, started brightly but found a determined Nigerian side ready to compete.

Ronaldo had an early chance in the ninth minute but failed to beat goalkeeper Maduka Okoye. At the other end, striker Akor Adams also went close but dragged his effort wide.

Portugal took the lead in the 23rd minute when Pedro Neto fired past Okoye from close range after a pass from Diogo Dalot.

Okoye then produced a brilliant save to deny Bruno Fernandes in the 33rd minute before Ronaldo narrowly missed with a header moments later.

Nigeria continued to push forward and got their reward in the 37th minute. Adams won possession in midfield, made a run into the box and finished confidently after receiving a pass from Fisayo Dele-Bashiru to make it 1-1.

The Super Eagles remained competitive after the break, with Okoye making two important saves from João Félix. Ronaldo also continued searching for a goal but could not find the target.

On the hour mark, Super Eagles coach Éric Chelle introduced several substitutes, including Terem Moffi, Raphael Onyedika and Frank Onyeka. The changes gave Nigeria fresh energy as they continued to trouble the hosts.

However, Portugal found the winning goal with 15 minutes remaining. Francisco Conceição cut in from the right and fired home to restore his side’s lead.

Okoye made another impressive save late in the game to deny Félix, but Nigeria could not find an equaliser before the final whistle.

Despite the defeat, the Super Eagles earned praise for their fighting spirit and strong display against a Portugal side preparing for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The loss was only the second defeat in regular time for Chelle since taking charge of Nigeria 15 months ago.

World governing body Fifa has struck a landmark deal with global players’ union Fifpro that means players will be represented when major decisions affecting the game are agreed.

Faced with a number of separate legal claims around player welfare, Fifa has agreed a memorandum of understanding with Fifpro, which it says “marks [a] paradigm shift in governance of professional football, with transfer system and player welfare standards”.

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For the first time, Fifpro will have a veto over key areas of the game’s governance and also observer access, with speaking rights, at the powerful Fifa Council, the decision-making body of global football.

Fifa says it has struck the deal on the condition that all legal proceedings against it, initiated by Fifpro, are withdrawn.

In October 2024, Fifpro filed an “abuse of dominance” claim against Fifa around the overcrowded match calendar.

Earlier this week, former France midfielder Lassana Diarra reached a settlement in his damages claim, initially for 65 million euros (£56.1m), against Fifa and the Belgian Football Association after his contract was cancelled by Russian club Lokomotiv Moscow and he was subsequently denied a transfer to Charleroi in 2014.

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One of the key elements of the agreement is that players will have greater protection from what are regarded as abusive practices, including forcing them to train on their own, withholding passports or abusing registration procedures.

In those circumstances, players will be able to cancel their contracts and still receive the payments they are due under those contracts, claim compensation for justifiable expenses and potentially demand an extra six months’ pay in damages.

Clubs that fail to respect their contractual obligations will face swifter and more effective sporting and financial consequences.

Fifpro president Sergio Marchi said: “This agreement represents an important step forward for football. Ensuring that players and their representatives have a meaningful voice in decisions affecting their careers is not only beneficial for footballers, but for the game as a whole.”

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Speaking at the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City a day before the World Cup begins, Fifa president Gianno Infantino hailed the agreement.

“It’s about unity, about bringing everyone together,” he said.

“We’ve always been having dialogues. Now, sometimes you don’t agree, when you don’t agree, well, you can go and say it to everyone, or you can sit down and discuss and see what makes sense.

“So, we signed a memorandum of understanding with Fifpro, everything is agreed.”

Good news, but issues remain – analysis

This all looks very positive, but it is not quite perfect.

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The major issue over the congested match calendar is still to be resolved, and it is understood the Professional Footballers’ Association is not yet in a position to back down from its own legal threat,

It remains to be seen if a resolution for the outstanding issues can be found and, if it cannot, whether Infantino will threaten to pull the plug on the whole agreement.

However, for now, the players’ voice is starting to be heard.

For too long, it has appeared the people most responsible for the enduring worldwide appeal of the game have no input into the major decisions around it. That is beginning to change.

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Marcus Rashford enjoyed an upturn in form on loan at Barcelona last season but the Manchester United forward still has no certainty over which club he will be playing for in 2026/27

Marcus Rashford’s future is in limbo. The Manchester United academy graduate impressed on loan at Barcelona last season, with many expecting him to stay after his debut campaign in Spain.

The forward contributed to Barca’s La Liga title and Supercopa victory in a brilliant 2025/26 season for Hansi Flick’s side. Rashford‘s form in Catalonia played a key role in England boss Thomas Tuchel calling him up for the Three Lions’ World Cup squad this summer.

But uncertainty surrounds his next destination. Barca have until June 15 to exercise their £26million purchase option to sign him on a permanent deal. Reports in Spanish publication Marca claim they won’t do this and have already moved on after signing Anthony Gordon for more than £69m from Newcastle United.

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The question is: where could Rashford go if the Spanish champions choose, as now looks likely, not to sign him? Premier League sides, including Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa, who had Rashford on loan for the second half of the previous season, have been linked.

United have no plans to reintegrate the 28-year-old back into their first team, but with no clear destination for him, should they re-consider that stance? Below are the thoughts of journalists at the Manchester Evening News…

Tyrone Marshall

Rashford’s ego must have been hurt when he found out that Barcelona were signing Antony Gordon. That really did come out of nowhere and given the season Rashford had at Barcelona, you can understand his frustration.

That return of 14 goals and 14 assists is a reminder that there is a good player there. In fact, there is a very good player and he won’t be short of suitors this summer.

A return to United should be a non-starter, though. The reasons why he was cast aside by Ruben Amorim have been well documented, and it was a decision backed by the club, not just taken unilaterally by Amorim.

Rashford would have to show a lot of contrition, and there is little evidence of that happening. The other issue is that he no longer fits within the wage structure redrawn by Ineos.

If Rashford was to be a squad player behind Matheus Cunha and Patrick Dorgu, but was taking home twice or even three times as much, it would risk creating friction. This squad is in a good place now and it doesn’t need those problems rearing their head again.

Isaac Seelochan

This is a bruising situation for Rashford. He couldn’t have done much more at Barcelona last season, but their apparent reluctance to sign him speaks volumes.

Money cannot be used as an excuse after Barca shelled out almost £70m on Gordon. Yes, his wages are high, but I’m sure there could be a compromise if both parties wanted this deal to happen.

Ultimately, whatever happens with Barcelona, United need to move him on. No one can say with any confidence that Rashford will find the motivation and form to become an important player for Michael Carrick.

The Reds cannot afford to take any risks and have proven with their current attacking options that they don’t need him. Instead, focus should be on selling him – even to a Premier League rival – with his homegrown status as an academy graduate meaning any sale would be pure profit.

Jack Flintham

It has all gone a bit pear shaped for Rashford. For much of this season, it seemed as though the 28-year-old would make his move to Barcelona permanent. Barca were happy, Rashford was happy and United were happy to let him go and start a new chapter.

Now, that seems to be in ruins. Rashford’s future is up in the air and you cannot see a clear option for him at the moment. If he has a good World Cup, there will undoubtedly be clubs interested in him and I still feel the best route for Rashford and United is for him to leave this summer.

Having said that, United will be wanting a left-sided winger this summer and Rashford can do a job for the Reds on that flank. Ruben Amorim’s exit and Michael Carrick’s arrival also positions Rashford nicely to do an unexpected 180.

However, the main stumbling block will be with the fans. Unlike Alejandro Garnacho, Rashford did not go out of his way to intentionally rile up the United fanbase and he has been largely respectful to the club. But the manner in which things imploded under Amorim has not been forgotten and it will divide opinion if he is given another chance, not least due to his hefty salary.

It still remains in United’s best interests to sell Rashford and continue to usher in a new era at Old Trafford.

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Kieran King

I don’t think Manchester United should allow Marcus Rashford to be part of the first-team group at Old Trafford next season. I believe that ship has sailed and he should move on again, preferably on a permanent basis.

Michael Carrick started to create something special in the second half of the season and he should continue with the same group of players while adding a couple that strengthen the squad both on and off the pitch.

I know Rashford has been a sensation, at times, for United over the years, but he made it clear last summer that he wanted to leave the Reds and I don’t think that mindset is needed in the camp right now.

Carrick should require commitment from every single player and that cannot be guaranteed with Rashford. United would be better off signing someone who is desperate to put on the shirt, such as Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo proved last season, rather than bringing back Rashford into the fold.

Although Barcelona is no longer an option for Rashford, I think Bayern Munich could be a suitable next destination for him. He would act as back-up to Luis Diaz in that side and play second-fiddle to Harry Kane up front. It could work as a perfect match if Rashford and Bayern are keen to make it happen.

While we may never truly know the inner workings of a tour player’s game, there are a few shots and strategy basics that pros — and even elite amateurs — know and follow. Recently, Cameron McCormick, a GOLF Top 100 Teacher and instructor to tour players like Jordan Spieth, shared three crucial shots pros rely on in tournaments to navigate tough playing conditions.

While the pros use these key shots, they’re also simple enough to incorporate into your own game — and they might just be what you’ve been missing.

Keep reading to learn what the three survival shots are and how to start using them during your rounds.

Low, fairway finder drive

While it’s fun to hit the long bomb, precision off the tee is often rewarded more than length — but you still don’t want to give up the advantage of hitting driver off the tee. 

That’s why it’s important to have a stock drive that you know can find the short grass every time. McCormick explains that pros create more control by dialing back their swing and making an easy setup adjustment. 

“Pros are going to dial speed down a little bit, they’ll drop the tee height, which will help them create a lower launch trajectory, keeping the ball out of the wind,” McCormick says.

To dial back your swing, focus on control rather than simply swinging slower. A useful drill is to practice at 80–90% effort and gradually increase your speed. As soon as your control or consistency starts to decline, you’ve found your limit. From there, scale back to the highest level of effort where you can still produce consistent results.

For tee height, experiment to find what best complements your swing. In the clip above, McCormick tees the ball so that the top of the ball is level with the top edge of the driver face. Use that as a starting point, then test slightly higher and lower tee positions to determine which setup helps you make the most consistent contact.

Flighted wedge shots

Like many amateur golfers, you may find that your wedge shots inside 100 yards constantly come up short. While there are a number of reasons this can happen, McCormick says a common mistake amateurs make is trying to hit the ball too high on these key scoring shots.

“In trying to hit it high, I introduce the chance of mis-executing my ball speed too short and therefore leaving it short,” he says.

Rather than launching their wedges high into the air, tour pros favor a low, flighted trajectory.

“Pros will almost always choose to flight their wedges lower because it gives them better control of their carry distance,” McCormick says.

To hit those penetrating, flighted wedge shots, use two keys from GOLF Top 100 Teacher Parker McLachlin, better known as Short Game Chef. First, set up with your weight forward. Then, play the ball slightly forward of center. This setup encourages a downward angle of attack without getting too steep, helping you produce the low, flighted wedge shots the pros have mastered. 

Protect the low-side miss

When faced with a putt that’s long and winding, McCormick explains that tour pros always protect the low-side miss. They play the maximum possible break, so that it only gets closer to the hole as it crests the hill.

“It almost ensures that the next one is a guaranteed tap in,” McCormick says.

Not only does this improve your chances of making the putt, but as McCormick explains, it also demands less speed. Instead of choosing a line that requires an aggressive stroke and causes the ball to break away from the hole, you select a path that allows the putt to track closer and closer to the cup as it loses speed

England will wait to see how the Gallagher Prem knockout phase unfolds before making a call on whether to rest Maro Itoje for their July tour.

Itoje could be stood down for the Tests against South Africa, Fiji and Argentina amid ongoing conversations between England’s captain, head coach Steve Borthwick and head of performance Phil Morrow.

Any decision to give Itoje the summer off would be in recognition of the demands of a year in which he led the British and Irish Lions to a series victory over Australia, played in the autumn and Six Nations campaigns and mourned the death of his mother.

The 31-year-old has also completed more Test minutes than any other player in the game since making his debut in 2016.

However, before a decision is made, the weekend’s Prem play-offs and the Allianz Stadium final a week later will be monitored to see if Itoje’s fellow locks Alex Coles, Ollie Chessum, George Martin and Charlie Ewels come through unscathed.

If injury misfortune strikes in the engine room, any plans made by Borthwick for the opener against South Africa in Johannesburg on July 4 may have to be revised.

“Maro’s personal situation this year has been well documented,” said Morrow, speaking at England’s Surrey base after Itoje had been omitted from a 26-man training squad that is preparing for a non-cap international against France on Friday week.

“If you take Maro’s last 12 months, he has been captain of the Lions tour, there has been his personal life and the general fact that he plays a decent amount of rugby.

“We always treat players on an individual basis, so this week in particular we thought it was best that Maro stayed at home, spent some time with his family and just rested and recuperated.

“There are two weeks of the Premiership season left so we’ll see what the next two weeks bring and then Steve will pick the final squad.

“We make individual decisions on players in terms of what’s best for them, not just for next year but looking further ahead.”

Morrow believes that England players would benefit from the type of sabbaticals granted to senior All Blacks such as Dan Carter, Ardie Savea and Scott Barrett, who are given either time off from the game or allowed to pause their international career and sign for an overseas club on a short-term basis.

“Do I think it is a good idea?” Morrow said. “Probably. New Zealand have used it well in terms of giving people a break and then allowing them to come back fresh.

“It’s very different in the northern hemisphere compared to the southern hemisphere in terms of the season structure and how it works and who pays people. It’s a bit more complicated.

“In principle it would be great for someone to take six months off and get their body right – but who pays for the sabbatical? That’s always the challenge when it comes to the payment structure.”

Morrow revealed that Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Ellis Genge, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Alex Mitchell are on course to recover from their injuries in time to face the Springboks.

After months of uncertainty, Gervonta Davis appears to be moving closer to a return to the ring.

Davis has not fought since his controversial majority draw with Lamont Roach Jr. in March 2025, a result many felt should have gone against him after Roach was denied a knockdown ruling.

A planned exhibition with Jake Paul was later scrapped as Davis became embroiled in legal troubles, including charges relating to battery, false imprisonment and attempted kidnapping, while an arrest warrant and civil proceedings have further complicated his return to the ring.

After being named ‘champion in recess’ earlier this year, the WBA then officially ordered ‘Tank’ to defend his lightweight world title against mandatory challenger Floyd Schofield on May 23, giving both camps until June 22 to reach an agreement before purse bids are called.

Though some felt that Davis would vacate the belt, either not ready to return or to search for a bigger name, negotiations are now reportedly ongoing. Providing the latest update, Schofield’s promoter Oscar De La Hoya told Fight Hub TV that he is expecting significant progression this week.

“Tom Brown [of TGB] and Eric Gomez from Golden Boy are in talks and we’re waiting for a proposal, which should happen in the next few days.

“That’s a fight that Floyd always wanted. That’s a fight that I believe Tank Davis will be very motivated to make happen. It’s a great fight. People have seen Floyd fight, he’s performed very well and surprised a lot of people. This is a natural fit for him next. The fact that the WBA ordered this fight and we can make it happen very soon is music to my ears. This is one of those fights that fans will really fall in love with.”

Schofield has emerged as one of the leading young lightweights in the sport. The unbeaten 23-year-old, known as ‘Kid Austin’, holds a 19-0 record with 13 knockouts and most recently stopped former world champion Tevin Farmer inside a round.

He was due to challenge Shakur Stevenson for a world title last year before illness forced him out during fight week, but has since climbed to the No.1 position in the WBA rankings and now finds himself on the verge of the biggest opportunity of his career.