Noelvi Marte is running out of chances. But he is getting another one. And Fantasy players should take note, yet again.
Sure, Marte’s time in the majors has mostly been marked by failure. The former top prospect is hitting just .249 with a .679 OPS in 202 games across parts of four seasons, including a brief stint with the Reds at the beginning of the season, where he struck out 10 times in 11 games while hitting .138 before being sent promptly back to Triple-A. His lack of a real defensive home could be overcome with some consistency with the bat, but he’s just never forced his way into the team’s long-term plans.
But man, is there still a lot of talent here. We’ve seen it in brief spurts in the majors, including when he put up an .837 OPS with a 30-homer pace in July and August of last season. And we’ve definitely seen it in the minors, where he was hitting .369/.409/.575 after his demotion to Triple-A, with eight homers and nine steals in 40 games.
And the Reds really need Marte to figure it out this time. They sent the struggling TJ Friedl down to Triple-A Wednesday to make room for Marte on their roster, and it looks like that sets him up to play center field in the bigs for the first time ever. It’s asking a lot of the converted infielder, who hadn’t even played the outfield until last summer. It’ll be a high-wire act for sure, and it might be asking too much of Marte to play the most difficult position in the outfield while also trying to establish himself as a real-deal big-leaguer.
But if he proves up to the challenge, there is still obvious difference-making ability here for Fantasy. He remains a premium athlete with at least plus raw power, and he was putting it on display in Triple-A, ranking in the 75th percentile or better in pretty much every power metric. He was also striking out just 15% of the time despite pretty poor swing decisions, and if he can continue to be aggressive without putting himself in too many holes against MLB pitching, he has a chance to be a 20-20 guy, at least.
Let’s hope the Reds really give him a chance this time — he wasn’t in the lineup Wednesday, but should be out there soon. They should. It might be one of the last chances he really gets, but this is a team that wants to make the playoffs and needs a big boost in their outfield and in the lineup, especially with Elly De La Cruz nursing a hamstring injury. If he hits the ground running this time, Marte should be a fixture in the Reds lineup the rest of the way; if he doesn’t, it might be time for a change of scenery, and at least the Reds will know where they need to shop when the deadline gets here.
Either way, he’s getting the opportunity and remains a very talented player. For those of us in categories leagues, Marte is worth taking the chance on, just like it’s worth the Reds giving him another chance. Let’s see what he can do with it this time.
Now, here’s what else you need to know about from Wednesday’s action around MLB:
Thursday’s top waiver-wire targets
Here’s who we’re looking to add coming out of Wednesday’s action:
Sam Antonacci, 2B, White Sox (54%) – I think Antonacci is just a good hitter. He makes a ton of contact, and while he doesn’t have huge power, he isn’t a total slap hitter either, as he showed with a pair of doubles amid his four-hit game Wednesday. With merely average pop and a spray-it-to-all-fields approach, Antonacci isn’t likely to be much of an over-the-threat power hitter, but the batting average is real – he’s hitting .291, and his .310 xBA suggests it isn’t a fluke – and he might be a 30-steal guy who gets to a 90-run pace now that he’s cemented in the leadoff spot. It all looks a lot like what we were hoping Luke Keaschall could be before the season, and it might not be much different than what someone like Nico Hoerner gives us.
Troy Melton, SP, Tigers (41%) – You certainly can’t argue with the results, as Melton has gone at least seven innings in consecutive starts and has allowed just four runs in 20.2 innings total since coming off the IL after his eight-inning, two-run outing Wednesday. He still isn’t missing enough bats, though, and that’s the main thing keeping me from fully embracing him as a breakout right now. The biggest issue right now is the four-seam fastball, which looked like an above-average swing and miss pitch as a rookie but has generated a whiff on just about 14% of swings so far, a pretty poor rate. You can live with it if he keeps managing hard contact like he has, but I’m not as excited as I would have expected to be about Melton at this point – and the fact that his velocity was down another tick on his four-seamer (now nearly 2 mph down from last year) doesn’t help his case, either. It’s still fine to add him for a matchup against the Twins next week, but I’m keeping my expectations in check for now.
Mick Abel, SP, Twins (47%) – Hey, remember him? Abel put together a couple of excellent starts in a row in April, peaking with a 10-strikeout gem against the Red Sox on April 14, and we haven’t seen him since. He went on the IL with right elbow inflammation after that start and has had a fitful process coming back, but is on the right track now; he’ll throw a live batting practice session Thursday, and if that goes well, he could be cleared to go on a rehab assignment. We’re probably still a few weeks away from seeing Abel back in the majors, but if you’ve got an IL spot to play with, he’s a viable target in all leagues, just in case that early-season apparent breakout turns out to be legit.
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians (23%) – Manzardo has been a pretty big disappointment this season, but that may be starting to change. He started his eighth straight game Tuesday, and he homered for the second straight, going 3 for 4 as the Guardians edged the Yankees. It’s his fifth homer in his past 13 games, though his strikeout rate is also spiking in that stretch, which is concerning. Still, Manzardo nearly got to 30 homers last season, and I still think that kind of upside is here, especially since he’s been hitting lefties better this season. He probably only matters as a corner infielder right now, but for a cheap injection of power, he’s pretty interesting.
Stephen Kolek, SP, Royals (48%) – Kolek has had a bit of an up-and-down season, but he’s been very good in two of his past three starts, sandwiched around a pretty rough one. Wednesday saw him strike out a season-high eight batters, in large part thanks to a slider that generated seven whiffs on 12 swings. Kolek generally doesn’t miss a lot of bats, though leaning into that slider more could help change that, as it has a 40% whiff rate for the season; he upped his usage of the pitch from 11% to 20% in this one. That’s an interesting wrinkle for a guy with excellent control, and if he can inch up even closer to average in his strikeout rate, Kolek might be pretty useful for Fantasy.
Wednesday’s standouts
Bo Bichette, SS, Mets – We’ve had a few false starts from Bichette this season, including a two-game stretch in mid-May where he homered three times, had five hits, and looked like he was finally turning it on. He followed that up with 14 straight games without an extra-base hit – a streak that is still alive. Which is to say, I have no idea if Bichette’s four-hit game Wednesday against the Mariners is going to be another failure to launch or the actual start of his turnaround. But I will continue to say this much: I do think the turnaround is coming at some point. Bichette’s expected wOBA over the past 100 plate appearances is .358, actually slightly better than last season’s mark, so I just don’t buy that his skill set has totally collapsed. I’m still buying Bichette stock.
Chase Burns, Reds vs. KC: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – At this point, the only real question for Burns is whether the Reds are likely to limit his workload at some point this season. Well, there are also questions about whether he’ll stay healthy (which exists for every pitcher), as well as about how he’ll hold up as his innings continue to pile up (a question with no real answer until we see it). But as for the workload, I don’t really think it’s likely to be too much of an issue – teams tend to prefer to limit young pitchers from jumping more than around 50 innings from one season to the next, and Burns only got to 111, including the postseason. Burns is on pace for around 170 innings if he ends up making 30 starts, so even allowing for some wiggle room, I do think we’re likely to see some kind of limitations for Burns at some point, especially since the Reds still very much have to plan for him pitching in the postseason. But I don’t think that means we’re going to see him shut down or pulled from the rotation, or anything like that. Some outings where he’s pulled from starts after five innings if the Reds have an early lead? Or perhaps a skipped start or two once Hunter Greene is healthy? Yeah, I could see that. It won’t likely change Burns’ outlook much, but it is one potential limitation he could be facing the rest of the way that some of the other pitchers in the top 20 of the rankings won’t.
Gerrit Cole, Yankees vs. CLE: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – We’re three starts in, and it’s kind of been all over the place for Cole. His first start saw him allow just two hits over six shutout innings, but with just two strikeouts; then he tossed 6.2 shutout innings in his next one with 10 strikeouts; and then there was this one. This is his first truly bad start, but it’s also now the second time in three with two strikeouts, and he generated just three swinging strikes Wednesday. I don’t really have a good explanation for why Cole hasn’t been consistently missing bats, because his stuff certainly doesn’t seem much worse than it did when he pitched in 2024 and had a 25% strikeout rate. I’m inclined to just chalk it up as one of those weird things that happens in a small sample size, especially since both of his low-strikeout games came against teams that rank in the bottom five in strikeout rate, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned. Which is a bummer given how good he was two starts ago. I just don’t know who Cole is yet, as he comes back from Tommy John surgery.
George Kirby, Mariners, vs. NYM: 4 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – We’re going on more than a year of Kirby’s control taking a step back, and while that was a reasonable tradeoff when it came with a career-best strikeout rate, it’s harder to be excited about Kirby when he has both a career-worst walk rate and a career-worst strikeout rate. His four-seamer has lost some of the run he added to it last season, but hasn’t gained back any of the ride he had prior to 2024, leaving it somewhere in the middle, and less effective as a swing-and-miss pitch than ever before. Kirby has never been a huge bat-misser, but you could live with that when he was limiting walks at a historic rate. Now? Well, he hasn’t looked like a top-15 starting pitcher in a while, and I’m not sure I have a ton of confidence in him getting back to that level.
Logan Webb, Giants @MIL: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – Webb diversified his arsenal a bit more in this one, and it helped keep the Brewers off balance. He can be a frustrating pitcher over the course of the season because he’s constantly tinkering and seemingly losing the feel for certain pitches, so there’s always an element of experimentation involved with Webb. But the end result is usually a ton of volume and good enough ratios, and I still tend to think that’s where we’ll end up here in the long run, despite how frustrating things have been for him this season. This was a good first step to getting back on track, though we’d certainly still like to see him missing more bats.
Max Meyer, Marlins @WAS: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – When you have a big-time breakout like Meyer, who finally stumbles, I always want to see how they respond. Meyer was tagged for five earned runs in his previous start, but he bounced back in a big way against a Nationals offense that hasn’t exactly been pushovers lately. What’s worth noting here is that Meyer’s slider still wasn’t at its best in this one, just like in the previous outing, but the sweeper was able to pick up the slack this time around. It’s hard to envision a version of Meyer who succeeds without his slider at its best in the long run, so I imagine getting that pitch back to being his best swing-and-miss weapon will be a focus between starts. It’s nice to see him find some success without it, but that probably won’t be sustainable.
Taj Bradley, Twins vs. CHW: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 5 K – You have to wonder if Bradley just isn’t 100% right, as he has given up eight runs in 8.2 innings since going on the IL with a pec injury. Or maybe that is wishful thinking, because the alternative is we’re starting to see him regress after looking like a breakout through the first month-plus of the season. Bradley’s velocity was fine Wednesday, but he just couldn’t throw strikes consistently enough. The good news is he still generated 15 swinging strikes, so the stuff is still causing hitters some issues, a good sign. I’m not panicking yet, but Bradley’s issue has always been consistency, and I am worried he just ran hot for a month and is still the same frustrating guy he’s always been. Another poor start and we’ll have to really start to worry.
Spencer Arrighetti, Astros vs. PIT: 4 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – If Arrighetti isn’t going to miss bats, I don’t really see what there is to get excited about. Sure, it’s a 1.94 ERA even after this bad start, but with a now below-average strikeout rate and terrible control, just like last season. He’s been surviving off weak contact so far this season, but that’s not something I have a ton of faith in Arrighetti sustaining, so I think this is just the start of his regression. If anyone is buying, I’d be trying to sell Arrighetti right now, because I do not think he’s even a top-75 SP right now.
Nick Martinez, Rays vs. DET: 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – Even against good matchups, sometimes these things blow up in your face. Martinez has been remarkably useful all season long, but we have enough of a track record here to know it wasn’t going to last – he’s a good pitcher in spurts, but it rarely lasts. His 2.29 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are still good, but the lack of strikeouts and 4.15 xERA limit how much you can truly rely on it. He could be useful against the Red Sox next week, but with the Dodgers likely looming after that, Martinez doesn’t look like the kind of pitcher you need to keep around.
Walbert Urena, Angels vs. COL: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – This was a pretty solid start, but the limitations are still hard to miss. Urena throws hard, but he doesn’t miss many bats with his fastballs, typically leaving his changeup as his only reliable swing-and-miss pitch. That can work for him some days, but his iffy command and control make it hard to depend on. Urena kind of has the Jose Soriano starter kit, but he either needs the sweeper to take a step forward as a swing-and-miss offering or for his control to level up before he can be viewed as much more than interesting.
Andrew Alvarez, SP, Nationals vs. MIA: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – There was some pretty interesting stuff going on with Alvarez in this one. Not enough to make him worth adding in all formats, or even in most 15-team mixed leagues. But Alvarez missed a good amount of bats Wednesday, including 10 whiffs on his slider and curveball on 27 swings, carrying over trends we saw from him in his time in the bullpen. Those are legitimate swing-and-miss pitches for Alvarez, but the fastballs have been a lot less effective, and it’s hard to survive against major-league hitters throwing breaking balls 65% of the time or more. So Alvarez is more of a name to watch right now, especially since we haven’t seen him finish even five innings yet. But there are some interesting skills to keep an eye on here, certainly.
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