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UFC Shanghai Underdog of the Week: Denise Gomes Is a Major Value Play

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Nov 4, 2023; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Denise Gomes (blue gloves) prepares to fight Angela Hill (not pictured) during UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason da Silva-USA TODAY SportsNov 4, 2023; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Denise Gomes (blue gloves) prepares to fight Angela Hill (not pictured) during UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason da Silva-USA TODAY Sports

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC Fight Night: Numagomedov vs. Song. *Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC. *

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Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Denise Gomes (+144)

**Model Odds: -133 **

**Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+227) **

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In Saturday’s co-main event, Brazilian strawweight Denise Gomes is seeking her fifth straight win. She’s an underdog to get it.

I understand where oddsmakers are coming from. Yan Xiaonan is a former title challenger in this 115-pound division, impressively going all 25 minutes with Weili Zhang. She wasn’t submitted in a dangerous 15 minutes against Virna Jandiroba in her only appearance during 2025. Xiaonan has become a brutal out — especially in China. She’s 3-0 in her home country.

But, Xiaonan is now 37, and the lack of activity won’t help her stay sharp. Her recent wins haven’t aged particularly well, as Tabatha Ricci has dropped three of her last four, and Jessica Andrade’s late-career slide has been six losses in her last eight fights.

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Above all, the Chinese striker just isn’t particularly dangerous. A “survival-first” mindset on the ground is paired with a 0.22% knockdown rate. She’s dropped just 1 of her 13 UFC opponents.

Gomes is the opposite. She’s scored a knockdown in three of her last six fights with a 0.65% knockdown rate. The Brazilian attempts 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes but has yet to find the tapout on a UFC opponent, signaling potential regression.

I’m not entirely sure that finish comes against Xiaonan, but there’s no doubt this is a competitive distance fight, and the 26-year-old also attempts 4.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. She’s the one of these two willing to mix it up.

That’s a big deal when the aforementioned Jandiroba just landed 3 of 11 takedown attempts and posted 9:59 in control. There’s no doubt that she is a better grappler than Gomes, but the threat of Yan getting stuck on her back could make a difference in decision-making between these well-matched strikers.

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My model has this fight at 64.9% likely to go the distance, which mirrors strawweight’s rolling yearly average of 68.6% of fights going the full distance. Xiaonan hasn’t been finished inside the distance since May 2021.

So, even if this isn’t Gomes’ most impressive performance, she probably shouldn’t be just 41.0% implied to win the fight. An 11-year age gap, grappling upside, and a power advantage are all working in her favor. The model’s forecast of Gomes’ decision outcome (30.6%) also shows value in betting markets.

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Itauma vs Hrgovic: British heavyweight given a hard lesson on the realities of world-level boxing

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It would be too simplistic – and unfair – to say Hrgovic won the fight purely through mind games, but the 34-year-old had succeeded in making the build-up uncomfortable.

Hrgovic spent fight week repeatedly attacking Itauma’s age, dismissing him as “just a kid”. As the week wore on, Itauma looked increasingly irritated and eventually lost his composure at the weigh-in, shoving Hrgovic before the Croatian responded with a slap.

Itauma prides himself on being unusually cerebral for a heavyweight. He reads psychology and self-help books, talks openly about sharpening his mind and appears to spend far more time analysing himself than most 21-year-olds.

But there is always a danger that deep thinking becomes overthinking, something Anthony Joshua has been accused of repeatedly during the latter stages of his career.

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Whether the pre-fight barbs played any part or not, Itauma’s gameplan once the bell rang was clear; he wanted to end the night early.

“Someone said to me he doesn’t feel like he’d win a world title unless he knocks him out. I didn’t like that,” promoter Frank Warren said afterwards.

That mindset was understandable because it had served Itauma extraordinarily well until now. But perhaps Hrgovic had been underestimated by almost everybody – Itauma, the media, pundits, former fighters and bookmakers who installed the Briton as a heavy favourite.

Hrgovic is an Olympic bronze medallist who went 12 hard rounds with the giant Zhilei Zhang, while against Daniel Dubois – the only defeat on his record – he was leading on two of the three scorecards before the fight was stopped because of cuts.

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‘El Animal’ knew what it felt like to be hurt, to become tired and to remain in a fight when things were going badly. Itauma did not.

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Kevin Quiambao lets it fly in venue that feels like home

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Kevin Quiambao lets it fly in venue that feels like homeKevin Quiambao lets it fly in venue that feels like home

Kevin Quiambao (left) —FIBA PHOTO

Kevin Quiambao found himself on familiar ground Friday night and delivered when Gilas Pilipinas needed him most.

The former La Salle standout hit a crucial 3-pointer with 11.7 seconds left in overtime as the Philippines escaped Jordan, 82-81, in the second round of the 2027 Fiba World Cup Asian Qualifiers at the Mall of Asia Arena in Pasay.

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With Gilas holding a slim lead late in overtime, CJ Perez drove into the lane and found an open Quiambao, who knocked down the triple for an 82-79 advantage.

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Quiambao finished with 14 points, five rebounds and two assists despite shooting 5 of 12 from the field.

The big shot came at a venue where Quiambao has spent much of his basketball career.

“Since high school, I’ve been here,” Quiambao said. “When I was in NU, I got to play here in MOA. Since then, I just give my best here every single day, practice and game here in MOA.”

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“I can’t say much about the familiarity, but when I’m here, I just let it fly.”

Quiambao later starred for La Salle in the UAAP before moving to the Korean Basketball League, where he plays for the Goyang Sono Skygunners.

The victory was also significant for a Gilas squad playing without naturalized forward Justin Brownlee, who missed the qualifiers’ second window while recovering from nagging lower-body injuries.

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“Of course, it would’ve been better if JB were here, right?” Quiambao said.

“Still, we were all-Filipino. We wanted to prove that we can win with this team.”

Gilas faced another setback when Carl Tamayo suffered a high ankle sprain in the third quarter against Jordan.

With Brownlee unavailable and Tamayo sidelined, Quiambao helped fill the void.

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And when Gilas needed a basket late, the former Green Archer delivered on a court he knows well. INQ

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Abby Vander Wal injury update: Texas Longhorns OH leaves game against TCU

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During the opening set of Texas volleyball‘s first match in the Players Era Showcase against TCU, outside hitter Abby Vander Wal exited the game. 

A scramble on the left side led to the sophomore falling on her side and staying down for the duration of the point. She was seen clutching her knee and hopped off with the help of training staff because she could not put pressure on her leg. 

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She did not return during the set

Vander Wal’s loss is a blow to the Longhorns’ hitting (she had two kills on the match) and her topspin serve ignited a pair of runs for the Longhorns earlier in the set. She did not return to the match after Texas swept TCU.

This is a developing story

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This article originally published at Abby Vander Wal injury update: Texas Longhorns OH leaves game against TCU.

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How to Watch Red Sox vs. Yankees: TV Channel, Live Stream, Time

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NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

The Boston Red Sox visit the New York Yankees on Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 7:15 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY.

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New York entered Saturday at 76-58 (.567), while Boston was 73-61 (.545). The Yankees began the day with 184 home runs, second-most in MLB behind Washington’s 190. The probable starters are Raymond Burgos for Boston and Max Fried for New York for Game 2 of today’s doubleheader.

Below, we’ll give you all the details you need to know about how to watch this game.

How to Watch Red Sox vs. Yankees

Players to Watch

Ben Rice

Rice is New York’s biggest power threat in the FOX nightcap. He is batting .255 with 35 home runs and 83 RBI, giving Boston one hitter it cannot afford to challenge carelessly.

Max Fried is lined up to start for New York, while Boston has not announced its Game 2 starter. Rice’s assignment does not change. If he gets a pitch to drive with runners aboard, he can turn a close rivalry game quickly. That power makes him the priority in any high-leverage at-bat.

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Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm gives the Yankees pressure beyond the home run. He has 18 homers, 53 RBI and 38 stolen bases, so Boston has to account for his speed as soon as he reaches.

That can matter even more in the second game of a doubleheader, when both bullpens may be carrying extra work. If Chisholm creates a scoring chance without needing another hit, New York gains an edge. Boston cannot lose track of him between pitches once he is aboard.

Willson Contreras

Contreras is Boston’s most complete middle-of-the-order threat. He is batting .278 with 26 home runs, 78 RBI and a .908 OPS, combining power with the plate discipline to extend an inning.

New York cannot give him traffic and a favorable count. If Contreras is reaching base or driving runners in, the Red Sox have the production they need to match the Yankees in the nightcap. His patience also gives Boston a way to make New York work.

Ceddanne Rafaela

Rafaela gives Boston contact, extra-base power and speed in the same spot. He is batting .287 with 16 home runs, 66 RBI and 17 stolen bases.

His ability to put the ball in play can help Boston create pressure before Contreras and the rest of the middle order come up. With Fried lined up for New York and Boston yet to announce its Game 2 starter, Rafaela’s versatility gives the Red Sox several ways to build an inning throughout the game.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds

Learn more about the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees game and check the full MLB schedule on FOX Sports!

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MLB Schedule Today: How to Watch, TV, Streaming for Sat. July 29

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NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Today’s MLB schedule has 17 games, including a regionalized FOX window featuring Red Sox at Yankees and Rangers at Brewers. Viewers receive one of those 7:15 p.m. ET matchups based on their market and should check local listings. The FOX coverage available in each market is streaming live and on demand on FOX One.

watch MLB games on FOX One

MLB Schedule for August 29 on FOX Networks

Red Sox at Yankees, Game 2

  • Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX (regionalized window; check local listings)
  • Stream: Watch 3 days free on FOX One
  • Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

The Red Sox at Yankees nightcap is the biggest rivalry game in FOX’s regional window. New York entered Saturday at 76-58 after a 1-0 win Friday, while Boston was 73-61. Max Fried is the Yankees’ probable starter for Game 2, and FOX Sports lists Raymond Burgos as Boston’s probable starter.

Rangers at Brewers

  • Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX (regionalized window; check local listings)
  • Stream: Watch 3 days free on FOX One
  • Venue: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

The Rangers at Brewers matchup follows Milwaukee’s 6-1 win in Friday’s series opener. The Brewers enter at 84-51 and the Rangers are 66-69, with Cal Quantrill scheduled to face Shane Drohan.

Other August 29 MLB Games

How to Watch MLB Games

FOX’s two 7:15 p.m. ET broadcast-network games form a regionalized window. Viewers receive Red Sox at Yankees or Rangers at Brewers based on market, so check local listings for the matchup airing in your area. The FOX coverage available in each market is streaming live and on demand on FOX One.

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Tenenbaum’s spring targets eyed by Brad Widdup in 2026

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The promising colt Tenenbaum is set to be given the opportunity to contest more significant races this spring after showcasing his ability in the first race at Canterbury.

As a full sibling to the 2025 Hong Kong Derby winner Cap Ferrat, the Snitzel colt is not anticipated to be stretched to staying trips this campaign. However, trainer Brad Widdup is hopeful the three-year-old can still make his mark during the carnival.

“He’s always shown a hell of a lot of promise,” Widdup said. “Unfortunately last time he got crook leading up to the better races and we had to change tack. He went to a maiden and won well and everyone saw what happened in the Clarendon Stakes. He never really got a fair crack. He’s bounced back and he’s in at the right time of year. We’ll try to sneak around the edges and see how far we get with him this time through, but he looks a horse with talent.”

Widdup had considered withdrawing Tenenbaum due to the heavy Canterbury track, but his concerns were unfounded as the $2.05 favourite secured a decisive 2-1/4 length victory over Yangzi River ($10), with Sprightly Affair ($3.70) finishing third.

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While a concrete racing program for the colt has not yet been established, Widdup is keen to test the waters at stakes level, with the Callander-Presnell (1600m) race being a potential target.

“He’s still learning. I don’t think I’d want to go 2000 (metres) in the spring, or to a Derby or anything,” he commented. “But there are a lot of good races. The advantage is we can keep them in Sydney a fair while too now, you don’t have to run off to Melbourne and chase down there. We’ll just try to place him along the way.”

In the second event, Godolphin filly Piedmont, a daughter of the highly successful Guelph, broke her maiden in the Headwater @ Vinery Stud Handicap (1250m).

Ciaron Maher’s assistant trainer, Jo Gerard-Dubord, believes the three-year-old will improve further in the autumn but has the race-day nous to progress through the grades.

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“She’s got a fair bit of quality. She is well bred, Mum was very good, and it’s nice to get a city winner for Godolphin,” Gerard-Dubord stated. “She’s only going to keep improving. Now she’s got her win out of the way, hopefully she can go on to better things.”

Check out the latest Australian betting sites for upcoming racing events.

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Tony Bellew sums up Moses Itauma’s performance against Filip Hrgovic in shock KO loss

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Moses Itauma suffered the first defeat of his career after coming up short against Filip Hrgovic in their vacant IBF heavyweight title fight.

Itauma looked to be well on his way to becoming the second youngest world heavyweight champion of all time after a quick start against Hrgovic, dropping the Croatian in the second round before continuing to dominate the rounds.

It soon became clear that he was starting to tire though, and after Hrgovic showed a superb chin, he was able to take full advantage in the ninth round, turning things around and stopping an exhausted Itauma to claim the TKO victory.

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Itauma will now have to go back to the drawing board after the defeat, but one man who is already certain he will come back better from this experience is former WBC cruiserweight champion Tony Bellew.

Posting on social media, Bellew described the youngster as ‘brave’ in his defeat, and remains convinced that he will become world champion one day.

“Filip done amazing to ride through the storm! I’ll say this now! Moses Itauma will be world champion! He will learn so much from tonight.

“The biggest thing I’ll take from tonight is just how brave and tough Moses was, We knew Filip was super tough. Tonight we learned Moses is also tough. Once he learns to pace a 12 round bout he’s going to rule for a while! Filip Hrgovic’s chin needs to studied.”

Promoter Frank Warren has also shared his reaction to Itauma’s defeat, revealing that the 21-year-old suffered a leg injury in the contest.

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Semi Ajayi Stars as Hull City Beat Taiwo Awoniyi’s Coventry City

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Nigeria internationals Semi Ajayi and Taiwo Awoniyi both played 90 minutes as Hull City defeated Coventry City 1–0 in Saturday’s Premier League clash.

Ajayi helped Hull keep a clean sheet, while Awoniyi led the Coventry attack as both Nigerians faced each other.

Liam Millar scored the only goal eight minutes from time to give Hull their second win in two games.

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Meanwhile, Frank Onyeka missed the match for Coventry due to a knock.

Hull, who were tipped for relegation before the season, are now flying high with six points from their opening two games.

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Tiger Woods honored a friend. It was both touching and telling

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Tiger Woods’s past cannot be his future. That’s true for him as it is true for everybody.

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James Toney accuses two former world champions of ducking him

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James Toney suspects he was intentionally avoided by two fellow world champions in 1993, back when he held the IBF super-middleweight title.

Prior to that, the defensive wizard had become a world middleweight champion by dethroning fellow future Hall of Famer Michael Nunn with an 11th-round finish.

He then successfully defended his IBF title against the likes of Reggie Johnson and Mike McCallum, before claiming the same belt up at 168lbs by toppling Iran Barkley.

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Just a few months earlier, Nigel Benn had also become a two-weight world champion at 168lbs, with a third-round stoppage of Mauro Galvano earning him the WBC strap.

A unification match between ‘The Dark Destroyer’ and Toney therefore seemed possible, only for both champions to pursue alternative opportunities.

For Benn, it was a case of defending his title against Lou Gent before entering a rematch with Chris Eubank, who put his WBO belt up for grabs in October 1993.

With their fiercely-anticipated sequel ending in a draw, however, the two Brits came away with their respective titles while Toney remained the IBF champion until November 1994, when he suffered a unanimous decision defeat to Roy Jones Jr.

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Over three decades later, though, Toney has told FightHype – while also speaking with Ryan Garcia – that there were ample opportunities for either Benn or Eubank to face him.

“For years, I was trying to get his [Conor Benn’s] dad to fight me. They all were [ducking me].”

With Garcia defending his WBC welterweight title against Benn on September 12, Toney expressed his surprise that Nigel’s son actually agreed to face the champion at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena.

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