The Arena app will not use real money to process bets, sources told The New York Times.
Social media giant Meta is building a prediction markets app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, The New York Times has reported.
The new app – internally referred to as ‘Arena’ – is the latest in Mark Zuckerbeg’s attempts to capitalise on changing internet trends and tap into emerging social behaviour online.
Sources told the publication that Meta would not allow users to bet real money on the app, likely opting for a points-based system instead, although the use of money wagering has not been completely ruled out.
Zuckerberg has reportedly assigned a small team at Meta to build Arena, which would function independently from the tech giant’s social media platforms Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook and Messenger.
Meta, with more than 3.5bn daily users across its platforms, hopes to grow Arena by directing its audience towards the new app.
Prediction markets allow participants to wager bets on real-world events in areas such as politics, entertainment and sports. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have committed majorly to pushing their platforms to US users in recent years, including receiving endorsements from president Donald Trump.
These prediction markets, however, have resulted in a sharp rise in online gambling in the US, many experts have highlighted. The issue is exacerbated with heavy advertising across sports matches, public transport and billboards, making it harder for gambling addicts to quit.
Kalshi and Polymarket put together accounted for about $24bn in global trading volume in just April this year, according to Pew Research Center. Comparatively, the total money gambled through legal sportsbooks in the US came to around $14bn per month on average in 2025.
“Set aside the debate on whether prediction market apps are investing or gambling – they’re habit-forming. And Meta is already facing high-profile litigation tied to concerns about addictive product design,” commented Forrester’s VP research director Mike Proulx.
“The irony here is hard to miss and not a great look for a company already under scrutiny.”
While Meta doesn’t share official numbers on underage users across its platforms, the EU indicated that roughly 10-12pc of children under 13 in the bloc are actively accessing Instagram or Facebook.
The European Commission recently found that the social media giant did not do enough to mitigate risks children face when using its platforms.
Meta has made previous attempts to expand what it offers to its users. In 2019, company employees tried to create various social media apps, across podcasts, music and travel – but none gained sufficient traction.
In 2020, the company experimented with prediction markets with an app called ‘Forecast’. This was quietly closed down in 2022.
“Meta is following its familiar copycat playbook,” Proulx added.
“Prediction markets are exploding into the mainstream, especially among younger men, and Meta wants a piece of that engagement. But this is yet another market that exists before its rules do. And like Meta, this category comes with baggage.”
Over in Europe, countries including Germany, Belgium, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands recently announced that they would target unlicensed prediction market platforms. Last month, Spain temporarily blocked Polymarket and Kalshi.
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