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65% Chance of Epic World Cup 2026 Quarterfinal Clash
Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have never met in a World Cup match during their two-decade rivalry. With the 2026 tournament just months away, the bracket has aligned perfectly for what could be their final showdown — and analysts now put the odds of an Argentina-Portugal quarterfinal at roughly 65 percent if both stars deliver as expected.
The expanded 48-team World Cup draw, completed in December 2025, placed defending champion Argentina in Group J with Algeria, Austria and Jordan. Portugal landed in Group K alongside Colombia, Uzbekistan and a playoff winner. Both teams enter as overwhelming favorites to top their groups, setting up a high-probability path through the knockout stages.
Under the new format, the top two teams from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers advance to a 32-team knockout round. If Argentina and Portugal win their groups — a scenario bookmakers give better than 80 percent probability for each side individually — they would meet in the quarterfinals on July 11 at Arrowhead Stadium, provided they navigate the round of 32 and round of 16.
Projection models from sites like Opta and betting markets currently estimate the combined likelihood of that exact quarterfinal matchup at around 60-70 percent, with many settling near 65 percent when factoring in group dominance and early knockout form. Earlier clashes remain possible but less likely: a round-of-16 meeting if one team finishes second (around 20-25 percent) or a remote round-of-32 scenario if both drop to third.
Ronaldo, turning 41 in February 2026, has made clear this will be his last World Cup. The Portuguese captain continues to score prolifically for Al-Nassr and recently posted recovery updates after a minor hamstring issue. Coach Roberto Martinez has expressed full confidence in Ronaldo’s fitness for June.
Messi, who turns 39 during the tournament, has been more reserved but strong signals point to his participation. The eight-time Ballon d’Or winner has already designated Kansas City as Argentina’s base camp, with group-stage matches scheduled at Arrowhead and AT&T Stadium. Inter Miami and Argentina coaching staff have indicated he plans to be there for what could be his farewell tour.
Argentina remains the tournament favorite according to most oddsmakers, buoyed by its 2022 triumph and deep squad. Portugal sits further back but possesses enough talent to reach the later stages even with managed minutes for its aging superstar.
The potential July 11 clash in Kansas City has already sent ticket demand soaring on resale platforms, with some listings for the projected quarterfinal jumping 300 percent since the draw. Global TV audiences for such a matchup could reach billions, adding one final unforgettable chapter to a rivalry that has produced countless classics at club level.
For Messi, a second World Cup title would solidify his legacy. For Ronaldo, the tournament represents perhaps his last realistic shot at the one major honor missing from his glittering career. They have combined for 48 World Cup appearances without ever sharing the pitch in the competition.
Analysts caution that football’s unpredictability remains. Upsets in the group stage or early knockouts could derail the dream scenario. Yet the bracket’s structure, combined with both teams’ quality, makes the quarterfinal meeting the most probable outcome of any Messi-Ronaldo World Cup encounter.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino has repeatedly highlighted the tournament’s potential for “dream matches,” and few would top this one. As friendlies continue in March and squads take shape, the soccer world is already counting down to what could be the ultimate last dance.
Whether it ends in a Messi masterclass, Ronaldo heroics or dramatic extra time, a 65 percent chance feels tantalizingly close to destiny for two players who have defined an era.
Anduril Executive Chairman and co-founder Trae Stephens details the shift in military strategy towards mass-produced, low-cost autonomous drones and AI-driven systems on ‘Mornings with Maria.’
Swarms of low-cost Iranian drones are rewriting the rules of war, but one U.S. defense contractor says it can mass-produce autonomous military systems to match them at a fraction of the traditional cost.
“Our adversaries are not coming at us with $10-plus million fighter planes, necessarily. They’re coming at us with very, very low-cost munitions,” Trae Stephens, co-founder and executive chairman of Anduril Industries, told “Mornings with Maria” Tuesday.
The challenge, he said, is to “significantly” bring down the cost of engagement instead of firing off $2 million interceptors, noting that the company is doing so by “building… low-cost autonomous systems” that give U.S. forces the ability to “fight the wars of tomorrow, rather than the wars of yesterday.”
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A solider checks an Anduril Industries Inc. Ghost-X reconnaissance drone at the National Training Center (NTC) in Fort Irwin, Calif., on Nov. 7, 2025. (Christopher Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“That’s been Anduril’s focus since the beginning…” he said.
Stephens detailed the company’s autonomous systems designed to collaborate on the battlefield. Some drones act as “hunters” that scout and identify targets, while others serve as “killers” capable of striking them.
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“You have drones that are going out and looking for other things, like our Ghost platform. You have loitering munitions that fly around looking for things, and then when they find those things, they can go and take kinetic action against them, and then you have platforms like our Barracuda 500 that are… missiles that are intended to go after targets directly,” he explained.
The aim is to replace Cold War-era technology with low-cost autonomous systems that can be mass-produced.
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“We’re leveraging the advances in manufacturing techniques, the advances and autonomy in the manufacturing system to produce at high, high scale at very low cost,” he said.
The company is already moving to scale up production, with a new manufacturing facility in Ohio set to produce these autonomous military systems at high volume as wartime demand grows.
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WASHINGTON — Iran’s ballistic missile program, long the backbone of its military deterrence, has undergone intense scrutiny and degradation in the 2026 conflict with Israel and the United States. Once estimated at more than 3,000 missiles, the arsenal has been significantly reduced by joint strikes, yet Tehran continues to demonstrate range and resilience with recent launches testing assumptions about its capabilities.
Here are 10 essential things to know about Iran’s ballistic missiles as of late March 2026:
- Iran possesses the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, though heavy losses have trimmed its size. Prior to escalated fighting in 2025-2026, U.S. estimates placed the inventory above 3,000 missiles, including short-range and medium-range systems. After firing hundreds in retaliatory barrages and suffering Israeli and U.S. strikes on production sites and launchers, remaining stocks are estimated between 1,000 and 2,000 operational missiles, with launchers reduced to roughly 100-200 serviceable units. Despite this, Iran has shown rapid reconstitution efforts, importing components and rebuilding facilities.
- The program features a diverse mix of liquid- and solid-fueled missiles. Liquid-fueled systems like variants of the Shahab-3 offer longer ranges but require more preparation time. Solid-fueled missiles, such as the Sejjil and newer models like Kheibar Shekan, allow quicker “shoot-and-scoot” launches, making them harder to target. This mix enhances survivability against preemptive strikes on fixed sites.
- Ranges traditionally capped at 2,000 km have been challenged. Iranian officials long claimed a self-imposed 2,000-kilometer limit, sufficient to reach Israel from western Iran. However, in March 2026, Iran launched two ballistic missiles targeting the U.S.-U.K. base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean — more than 4,000 km away. One failed in flight; the other was intercepted. The attempt suggests modified systems or previously undisclosed capabilities that could threaten parts of Europe or further U.S. assets.
- Hypersonic and maneuverable warheads are advancing rapidly. The Fattah-1 and Fattah-2 hypersonic glide vehicles represent a major leap, with claims of Mach 15 speeds and the ability to maneuver in pitch and yaw during re-entry. These features are designed to evade advanced defenses like Israel’s Arrow system or U.S. Patriot batteries. Iran has deployed Fattah-2 in recent strikes, showcasing improved precision and terminal-phase adjustments.
- Key medium-range systems include the Shahab-3 family, Emad, Ghadr, Sejjil and Khorramshahr. The Shahab-3 and its variants reach 1,300-2,000 km with payloads up to 1,500 kg. The solid-fueled Sejjil offers similar range with faster launch readiness. The Khorramshahr, potentially reaching 3,000 km, carries heavy warheads suited for hardened targets. Many feature maneuverable re-entry vehicles (MaRVs) to complicate interception.
- Short-range missiles provide regional saturation capability. Systems like the Fateh-110, Zolfaghar and Khalij Fars (anti-ship variant) cover 300-700 km, threatening U.S. bases in the Gulf, Israel’s neighbors and shipping lanes. These are often deployed in large salvos to overwhelm defenses, combined with drones for complex attacks.
- Underground “missile cities” enhance survivability. Iran has invested heavily in deeply buried facilities and mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) dispersed across the country. While Israeli strikes damaged surface infrastructure and some launch pads, many underground stockpiles and production elements survived initial waves, allowing limited continued operations.
- The program has been heavily targeted in 2025-2026 fighting. Joint U.S.-Israeli operations destroyed an estimated 60-85% of surface-to-air missiles and a significant portion of ballistic launchers and production sites. Strikes hit facilities in Tehran, Semnan, Khuzestan and elsewhere, reducing daily launch rates by up to 90% in some phases. Production sites for solid fuel mixers and components were repeatedly hit, though Iran has begun reconstruction using alternative methods and imported materials.
- Precision and lethality improvements focus on saturation tactics. Older missiles had limited accuracy, but newer variants with GPS-aided or inertial guidance, cluster munitions and heavier warheads aim to saturate defenses. In 2024-2025 exchanges, Iran fired hundreds of missiles in barrages, with some penetrating Israeli multi-layered defenses and causing casualties in urban areas. Recent attacks have shifted toward countervalue targets in populated zones.
- Reconstitution and future risks remain a major concern. Despite losses, Iran is rebuilding, potentially aiming for 8,000 missiles by 2027 if unchecked, according to Israeli assessments. Imports of sodium perchlorate and other components from abroad support solid-fuel production. The program’s dual-use nature with space launch vehicles raises proliferation worries, and any nuclear breakout could pair with these delivery systems. Ongoing conflict has degraded but not eliminated the threat, with experts warning that full restoration could take 1-2 years.
Iran’s ballistic missiles serve as its primary asymmetric tool, compensating for conventional air force weaknesses. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps oversees much of the program, integrating it with drone swarms for layered attacks. While U.S. and Israeli strikes have degraded launch rates and infrastructure, Tehran’s ability to fire at distant targets like Diego Garcia has upended prior range assumptions and heightened concerns for regional stability and European security.
The 2026 war has exposed both the program’s resilience and its vulnerabilities. Production facilities remain under pressure, yet underground assets and rapid repair efforts suggest Iran retains a credible deterrent. As fighting continues, the missile program’s evolution will shape the conflict’s trajectory and broader Middle East dynamics.
Analysts stress that while current stocks are diminished, the combination of hypersonic technology, dispersal tactics and reconstitution speed keeps Iran’s arsenal a potent factor. International efforts to curb components and sanctions aim to slow progress, but enforcement challenges persist.
For now, the March Diego Garcia attempt stands as a stark reminder: Iran’s ballistic missiles, even when degraded, can project power farther and with greater sophistication than many once believed. The coming months will test whether sustained pressure can prevent a full rebound or if Tehran will field an even more advanced force.
Labutes IR is a Fund Manager/Analyst specialized in the financial sector, with more than 18 years of experience in the financial markets. I have worked at several type of institutions in the industry, always at the buy side and related to portfolio management. Associated with the existing author The Outsider.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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