BENGALURU, – Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump heightened his rhetoric against Iran, threatening stronger action if the country fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit chokepoint.

Brent crude futures rose 57 cents, or 0.5%, to $110.34 a barrel by 1202 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.26, or 1.1%, at $113.67.

Trump, has threatened ‌to rain “hell” on ⁠Tehran if ⁠it fails to comply with his deadline of 8 p.m. EDT Tuesday to reopen the strait. “They could be taken out,” Trump warned, pledging further action if a deal is not reached.

Responding to a U.S. proposal through mediator Pakistan, Tehran rejected a ceasefire and said a permanent end to the war was necessary, and pushed back against pressure to reopen the strait.

Iranian forces effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. and Israeli attacks began on February 28, disrupting a waterway that typically carries about 20% of global oil flows.

“Clock-watching is now playing almost as big a role in oil markets as the ⁠fundamentals themselves ‌in the run-up to Trump’s ultimatum deadline,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
“The potential for a ceasefire deal offers some counterweight and could spark a relief move lower if it gains traction, but ⁠persistent supply worries from the Hormuz chokepoint and damaged energy facilities are keeping the floor under prices.” On Monday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards halted two Qatar liquefied natural gas tankers and directed them to hold position without providing explanations, sources told Reuters. However, shipping data has shown limited vessel movement through the strait since last Thursday.

The U.N. Security Council is expected to vote on Tuesday on a resolution to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but in significantly watered-down form after veto-wielding China opposed authorizing force, diplomats said.

The attack in the region continued as explosions were heard in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and surrounding countryside on Tuesday that were caused ‌by the Israeli interception of Iranian missiles, Syrian state TV reported.

Saudi Arabia said on Tuesday it intercepted and destroyed seven ballistic missiles launched towards its Eastern Region, with debris falling near energy facilities, according to the defence ministry.

The conflict has pressured global crude ⁠markets, with spot premiums for U.S. WTI crude surging to record highs as Asian and European refiners scramble to secure replacement supplies amid disrupted Middle Eastern flows.

Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Aramco raised the official selling price of its Arab Light crude to Asia for May delivery, setting a record premium of $19.50 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average.

Adding to supply concerns, Russia on Monday said Ukrainian drones attacked the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal on the Black Sea, which handles 1.5% of global oil supply. Russia reported damage to loading infrastructure and storage tanks.

OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to lift oil output quotas by 206,000 bpd in May, though the increase will be largely notional as key members cannot boost production because strait closures are curbing exports.

Financial markets swung amid uncertainty ahead of President Donald Trump’s Iran deadline, with tentative ceasefire signals offset by the risk of an escalation in the conflict.

Brent crude trimmed its opening gains to trade just under $110 a barrel as markets remained volatile before Trump’s Tuesday 8 p.m. Eastern Time cutoff. US equity-index futures erased initial losses to trade little changed.

Asian shares opened higher with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbing 0.7% on the back of gains in South Korea. Technology stocks — seen as less impacted by the war in the Middle East — led the advance, with Samsung Electronics Co. climbing 1.5% after profit surged eight-fold.

Trump said talks with Iran are “going well” ahead of the deadline to agree to a deal, even as he insisted that freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz must be part of any accord. If Iran doesn’t agree to the US’s terms, the military may destroy “every bridge in Iran by 12 o’clock tomorrow night” and put every power plant “out of business,” Trump warned Monday.

“It’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk,” said Jeff Buchbinder at LPL Financial. “For now, we believe the best course of action for investors is to be patient.”

Iran reportedly passed to mediator Pakistan a rejection of a ceasefire proposal. It demanded a permanent end to the war, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction efforts, in addition to protocol for safe passage through Hormuz, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.
While traders kept a close eye on geopolitical developments, they awaited this week’s key inflation readings. Data published Monday showed the US service economy expanded in March at a slower pace as employment shrank by the most since 2023 and input prices accelerated.The mixed economic signals illustrate the uncertain time for most businesses, according to Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.

“A prolonged struggle over the Strait of Hormuz into May and June would markedly darken the outlook for the US and the global economy,” he said. “For now, given last Friday’s payroll numbers, Fed policymakers have the luxury of remaining in ‘wait and see’ mode.”

Mumbai: Indian insurers across the spectrum of services are expected to report rather circumspect fourth-quarter earnings, with a meltdown in equities in the aftermath of the Iran war wiping out investment gains for bulge-bracket institutional holders of stock, brokerages said.

Industry profitability is expected to be muted due to market conditions, Emkay said in a report. It said the nearly 14% decline in the Nifty 50 during Q4 and a 40-basis point rise in bond yields weighed 4-5% negative economic variance for private life insurers and 1% negative for Life Insurance Corp (LIC)-the biggest local institutional holder of stock.

The annualised premium equivalent (APE) in FY26 at life insurers would expand in high single digits. This slowdown in life insurance demand is partly driven by equity market volatility and rising yield expectations, which have dampened demand for ULIPs and non-par guaranteed products.

However, Axis Max Life is expected to lead followed by Life Insurance Corporation of India.

HDFC Life is expected to report single-digit APE growth, with traction balanced across savings products, while value of new business (VNB) margins are likely to remain stable at around 24.5%. ICICI Prudential Life may see higher single-digit growth, with VNB margins at about 24%.

SBI Life is likely to report high single-digit APE growth in the quarter, with FY26 APE growth estimated at around 14% year-on-year, impacted by a slowdown in ULIP sales toward the latter half of March amid volatile equity markets. Its VNB margins are expected to remain stable at around 27%. LIC is likely to report a relatively stronger 13% growth, aided by group business, with VNB margins around 20% as it continues to pivot toward non-participating products.
In contrast, general and standalone health insurers are expected to deliver robust growth. ICICI Lombard General Insurance is likely to report 10-12% growth in gross written premium, supported by motor and health segments, although commercial lines may see a slowdown. Its combined ratio is expected to remain broadly flat at around 102.6%, weighed down by higher expense ratios. Star Health and Allied Insurance is expected to post strong double-digit growth, aided by improved affordability following GST rate changes and normalisation of earlier regulatory impacts. Both claims and combined ratios are likely to improve.

By Jennifer Nash

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