EXCLUSIVE: Professor James Mitchell, an expert on the rise of the SNP, said an independent Scotland would “inherit all the challenges we now have and many more”.
John Swinney is pushing a “fundamentalist” approach to achieving Scottish independence which shows no regard for the “social and economic consequences”, a leading expert on devolution has warned.
Professor James Mitchell said the SNP leader’s claim that a second referendum could be held as soon as 2028 showed he had no intention of “tackling weaknesses” in the case for ending the Union.
The University of Edinburgh academic has written about the rise of Scottish nationalism as an electoral force for 40 years and recently completed a new book on the subject.
It comes as Swinney today launches the SNP’s manifesto for the election on May 7 which could secure a third decade of the Nationalists in power at Holyrood.
The SNP leader has repeatedly argued he will have a mandate to call an IndyRef2 if his party wins 65 or more MSPs next month – a position last week shot down by Wes Streeting, the UK Health Secretary.
Asked if the Nationalists were ready for another referendum campaign, Mitchell told the Record: “The SNP has not addressed weaknesses exposed in 2014 and additional problems that have arisen.
“There can be only one reason to believe they genuinely want another referendum during the next Parliament – the leadership believes in independence regardless of social and economic consequences. That fundamentalist view is fair enough, but John Swinney and the SNP should be open and honest about this.
“But it is likely that John Swinney has come to believe that Scotland must be better off by being independent. After years in politics he has likely internalised this belief to the extent he is not capable of reflection and hence the refusal to address weaknesses.”
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Mitchell added: “It has been suggested that if another referendum was held the SNP would run a campaign similar to Nigel Farage’s Brexit campaign – with wild promises and appeals to emotions. In essence, the SNP has for the moment abandoned appeals to the head and now seeks to appeal only to the heart.”
Streeting, a senior figure in the UK Labour Government, last week said Westminster would not grant Holyrood the power to hold an IndyRef2, even if the SNP won a majority.
“We are not going to introduce chaos into the UK by having an independence referendum, absolutely not,” he said.
Asked what he thinks Swinney would do if his IndyRef2 call is ignored, Mitchell said: “There’s really little he can do as his predecessors discovered. Nicola Sturgeon marched her troops to the top of the hill only to march them down again on many occasions.
“Demanding a referendum is all but certain – but it’s difficult to see why Keir Starmer will agree, especially given the major challenges the Prime Minister is already having to deal with.
“The best advice for the SNP now – and has been since 2014 – is to do two things. As a party, the SNP needed to acknowledge that, while it had succeeded against expectations to increase support for independence in 2014, there were lessons to learn.
“It needed serious reflection on the weaknesses exposed that prevented it getting support over the line.
“This required, and still requires, an honest and open discussion within the SNP, and beyond with the wider independence movement.
“It still has not come close to an agreed convincing response to many weaknesses – real or exaggerated by opponents – on currency, pensions, the economy, fiscal matters, and a gamut of transitional matters. This is not to say that credible answers exist on some of these areas – but it is clear that the SNP leadership cannot rely on spin, smoke and mirrors.”
Mitchell added: “An independent Scotland can never be, as the SNP propaganda would have us believe, a ”fresh start’.
“An independent Scotland will inherit all the challenges we now have and many more. Reducing these now, by skilfully using existing extensive devolved powers, instead of playing blame games and playing politics, would make sense if the SNP really wants another referendum any time soon.”
Speaking before the manifesto launch, Swinney said his party would offer voters a plan “bursting with ambition for Scotland’s future”.
He added: “Because the SNP is on Scotland’s side – and on May 7, I am asking people to deliver an SNP majority government that will improve the NHS, support people with the cost of living and deliver the fresh start of independence.”
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