Bitcoin BTC$75,084.41 has climbed nearly 10% this month, but the rally is running into resistance near $75,000. The pause is notable as U.S. stocks push to record highs.

On-chain data shows holders are selling into strength, helping explain the slowdown.

It is evident from an on-chain indicator called realized profit/loss, which tracks the total dollar value of gains or losses locked in by holders when they move their coins on-chain. The indicator compares the current price at which coins are being moved with the price at which they last moved (the assumed acquisition cost), effectively showing whether investors are selling at a profit or a loss.

Values above 1 indicate increased profit-taking, and the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently well above that threshold. The EMA is used to smooth out day-to-day noise and highlight the broader trend in realized profits.

“Profit-taking activity is rising, with the 30D EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 1.16, indicating investors are selling into strength. A sustained move above $78.1K will require the market to absorb this overhead supply,” the firm said in a report.

Profit-taking was particularly strong on Tuesday as Bitcoin briefly climbed toward $76,000 before quickly slipping back below $75,000. According to CryptoQuant, investors realized about $1.14 billion in profits during the move, one of the largest single-day readings this year.

The indicator, though widely tracked, has limitations, mainly that it assumes coins moving on-chain are being sold. In reality, they may simply be moving between wallets or exchanges for custody, rebalancing, or internal transfers.

That said, the latest profit-taking signal aligns with other indicators, such as the cumulative volume delta, suggesting demand is concentrated on specific exchanges while activity remains weaker elsewhere.

The CVD is a measure of who is more aggressive in the market. It shows whether the market is being driven more by buyers demanding liquidity or by sellers hitting bids.

So far, buyers have been aggressive mainly on Binance, but not so much on Coinbase or other exchanges, according to Glassnode.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered exchange Giottus, echoed the view, saying sentiment is improving, but conviction is still not yet fully established.

“Funding rates remain slightly negative, showing that traders are still cautious and not yet leaning aggressively long. On-chain activity has slowed down. This suggests the market is consolidating, not overheating,” he said.

Further, bitcoin options trading on Deribit continues to show a bias for put options across all time frames. It indicates lingering downside fears and demand for protection offered by puts.

Taken together, profit-taking pressure, uneven spot demand, and cautious derivatives positioning all indicate that buyers are absorbing supply but not yet overwhelming it.

Bitcoin price prediction grows increasingly complex as BTC was turned away at $76,000 for the third consecutive time, sliding back toward $74,000 while a closely watched derivatives signal flashes what could be a major setup.

Bitcoin price prediction turns increasingly cautious as BTC logs its third rejection at $76,000 in two months. After briefly topping that level on April 14, the asset reversed and settled near $74,000, holding a 1.3% gain over 24 hours but failing to deliver any sustained breakout.

The broader context remains difficult. BTC is still roughly 41% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198, with the FOMC meeting on April 28, the Iran ceasefire expiry on April 22, and the CLARITY Act all sitting in the near-term window.

Funding rates on Binance’s bitcoin perpetuals have stayed negative for 46 straight days, even as open interest continues to climb. That combination means new short positions are being added into a price that refuses to collapse, exactly the setup that has historically coiled markets for a violent reversal.

K33 Research head of research Vetle Lunde flagged the dynamic in a new report, noting the 30-day average funding rate has now run negative longer than almost any comparable period in bitcoin’s history. Only March to May 2020 (63 days) and June to August 2021 (49 days) saw longer streaks. Both preceded significant recoveries.

“Comparable risk-off regimes have historically been attractive entry points for BTC,” Lunde said, as crowded short trades were forced to unwind.

What Has to Give for BTC to Break Out

Three rejections at $76,000 with no decisive close above it signal a persistent seller presence at that level. Until volume confirms a true breakout, the resistance stands. As covered, $68,000 remains the structural floor, and a break below it would expose BTC to a sharper move toward $65,000 if macro conditions deteriorate.

The near-term calendar is dense. A ceasefire extension from Iran, a dovish signal at the FOMC, or a CLARITY Act catalyst could be what forces a short squeeze. Without one, the consolidation continues.

Historical Context and What It Means

The 46-day streak now matches the duration of the defensive positioning that defined the market around the FTX crash bottom in late 2022. That regime also featured rising open interest alongside negative funding, and it resolved with a sharp upside move once sellers exhausted themselves.

The signal does not guarantee a rally. But the math is simple: the longer shorts remain crowded below $76,000 with no follow-through to the downside, the more compressed the eventual move becomes.

Dogecoin is pushing higher on strong volume, but the move is still being driven more by positioning than underlying demand. The rally looks technically clean, yet the bigger question is whether it can sustain without broader participation returning.

News Background

• DOGE outperformed the broader crypto market, beating both bitcoin and ether as capital rotated into higher-beta assets during the session.

• Despite the price strength, on-chain activity remains subdued, with daily active addresses trending lower. This suggests the move is being driven more by derivatives and short-term positioning than organic network demand.

Price Action Summary

• DOGE climbed from $0.093 to $0.098, breaking through the $0.095 resistance zone on strong volume.
• The move developed through a series of higher lows, showing steady accumulation rather than a single spike.
• Price accelerated into the final hour, pushing toward session highs and holding above $0.096 support.

Technical Analysis

• The breakout is backed by volume, which confirms real participation and not just thin liquidity.
• Late-session buying spikes signal institutional involvement, particularly during the push through $0.097.
• However, the broader structure remains a compression below descending resistance, not a confirmed trend reversal.
• The divergence between rising open interest and falling on-chain activity points to a market driven by leverage rather than demand.

What traders should watch

• $0.096 now acts as immediate support. Holding this level keeps the breakout intact.
• $0.104 is the key resistance. A clean break above it would shift structure more clearly bullish.
• A move back below $0.092-$0.090 would invalidate the setup and expose DOGE to a deeper pullback.

Ripple said this week it had partnered with Kyobo Life Insurance, one of Korea’s largest life insurers, to tokenize government bond settlement using the firm’s Ripple Custody platform, per a release shared with CoinDesk.

The arrangement is Ripple’s first with a Korean insurance institution and is positioned as a step toward compressing Korea’s standard T+2 bond settlement cycle into near real-time execution.

The announcement does not specify transaction sizes, a go-live date, or which Korean government bond series will be settled on-chain. Both parties describe the arrangement as a strategic partnership that will also “assess the technical and regulatory feasibility” of broader tokenized treasury settlement, language that typically indicates a pilot framework rather than production infrastructure.

Kyobo Life will also explore stablecoin-based payment rails through Ripple, the release said, without specifying the stablecoin or timelines.

The deal adds to a growing set of institutional tokenization efforts across Asia, where regulators in Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore have moved faster than U.S. counterparts in building frameworks for regulated digital asset activity.

Korea has licensed payment providers for remittance since 2017 and has emerged as one of the region’s more active markets for regulated crypto adoption, with local exchanges among the highest-volume in the world and recent regulatory movement toward won-denominated stablecoins.

For Ripple, the Kyobo partnership extends a push into Asian institutional infrastructure that has accelerated since the SEC dropped its lawsuit against the company in 2024.

The firm has announced custody and payment partnerships across Japan, Singapore, and the UAE over the past 18 months, positioning Ripple Custody as a settlement layer for regulated financial institutions rather than a retail-facing product.

BitMEX Research has proposed an alternative to freezing quantum-vulnerable dormant Bitcoins, advocating a wait-and-see approach and a “canary fund” with a quantum bounty instead. 

BitMEX Research proposed a soft fork on Thursday that would only activate a full freeze of vulnerable coins if it is “proven that a quantum computer capable of stealing Bitcoins actually exists.”

The system uses a “canary approach,” creating a special Bitcoin (BTC) address using a “Nothing-Up-My-Sleeve Number” (NUMS). This is a cryptographic proof in which the private key is unknown, but it is a valid address that could theoretically be spent by a powerful enough quantum computer.

Users can donate BTC to this address as a bounty, incentivizing any quantum-capable actor to “ring the alarm” by spending from it. Only if someone spends from this canary address does the freeze automatically activate, as it proves the quantum threat is real. 

The solution provides an alternative mechanism to the BIP-361 proposal on Tuesday that suggested freezing dormant, quantum-vulnerable Bitcoin to prevent it from being stolen by bad actors in the future. 

BIP-361 drew significant community pushback, with some comments calling it “authoritarian” and “confiscatory.”

Canary watch state prevents automatic freeze

BitMEX’s proposed “canary watch state” would still allow old coins to be spent, provided malicious actors using quantum computers do not attempt to steal from the “canary fund.” 

Investors participating in the canary fund can use multisignatures and withdraw their BTC at any time, it explained. 

There is also a safety window where quantum-vulnerable transactions could still be allowed after the five-year mark proposed in BIP-361, but with outputs locked for a period. 

Related: Bitcoiners propose freezing quantum-vulnerable coins in BIP-361

“While this approach adds complexity and risk, given how controversial any coin freeze is, mitigating the impact of the freeze using this type of system may be worth consideration.”

BIP-361 is a rough idea for a contingency plan

Meanwhile, BIP-361 co-author Jameson Lopp has said his Bitcoin improvement proposal was more of a “rough idea for a contingency plan” than something ready to be proposed for activation. 

“I know folks don’t like it. I don’t like it myself. I wrote it because I like the alternative even less,” he wrote on X on Wednesday. 

He told Cointelegraph that it was a “rough sketch” to approach the issue of a “looming circulating supply shock” if quantum computing advances to the point that a post-quantum signature scheme achieves consensus for being added to Bitcoin.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum-secure cryptography will even work