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BitMEX Proposes ‘Canary Fund’ Alternative in Bitcoin Quantum-Security Debate

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BitMEX Proposes ‘Canary Fund’ Alternative in Bitcoin Quantum-Security Debate

BitMEX Research has proposed a ‘quantum canary fund’ mechanism for Bitcoin that would trigger a coin freeze only if a quantum computing threat is demonstrably real, positioning the idea as a direct counter to BIP-361’s preemptive forced-migration approach.

The proposal lands in the middle of an active governance fight over how Bitcoin should respond to quantum risk, and whether protocol-level coercion is ever justified to protect user funds.

The question isn’t whether quantum computers will eventually threaten ECDSA signatures. It’s who gets to decide when that threat is actionable, and what the protocol is allowed to do about it.

Key Takeaways:
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  • Proposal: BitMEX Research has put forward a quantum canary fund as an alternative mechanism for protecting Bitcoin against quantum computing threats.
  • Trigger condition: The canary fund activates a coin freeze only if a verified quantum threat materializes – not preemptively, unlike BIP-361’s phased approach.
  • Canary mechanics: A designated address uses a Nothing-Up-My-Sleeve Number (NUMS) system to generate a provably unknown private key, monitored on-chain via soft fork for signs of quantum exploitation.
  • Safety window: A 50,000-block delay – roughly 345 days – follows any canary trigger before a full freeze activates, giving legitimate holders time to migrate.
  • What it responds to: BIP-361, merged into the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal repository on April 15, 2026, proposes banning sends to quantum-vulnerable addresses within three years and freezing legacy coin spends within five years of activation.
  • Trade-off acknowledged: BitMEX concedes the canary mechanism adds complexity and introduces its own risks, but argues it is preferable to BIP-361’s disruption of Bitcoin’s immutability guarantees.
  • Community fault line: Jameson Lopp’s BIP-361 drew sharp criticism for preemptively restricting legitimate funds; Adam Back has advocated optional upgrades over mandatory freezes.
  • Watch: Whether BitMEX formalizes the canary fund as a counter-BIP and whether it draws engagement on the Bitcoin developer mailing list – that activity will signal whether this proposal moves from concept to contention.

Discover: The best pre-launch token sales

How the Canary Fund Mechanism Actually Works – and What It Doesn’t Protect

The canary fund concept centers on a specially constructed Bitcoin address whose private key is provably unknown to anyone.

Using a Nothing-Up-My-Sleeve Number (NUMS) system, the address is generated on the elliptic curve in a way that no party, including its creators, can control.

A soft fork marks this address for on-chain monitoring, turning it into a live tripwire: if funds ever move from it, that movement proves a quantum computer has cracked ECDSA in practice, not just in theory.

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That is not the same as quantum-proofing Bitcoin. The canary fund does not upgrade any existing wallet, does not migrate any exposed public keys, and does not protect coins that were already at risk the moment their public keys appeared on-chain.

Source: Bitmex research

What it does is delay the most disruptive protocol intervention, a coin freeze – until there is verifiable on-chain evidence that the threat is real and active.

The 50,000-block safety window built into the proposal (approximately 345 days) is deliberately structured as an incentive, not just a grace period.

BitMEX’s reasoning: if a quantum-capable actor can crack the canary address, competitors with similar capabilities would face the same temptation across thousands of exposed addresses.

The race-to-claim dynamic theoretically surfaces the threat before it propagates silently. The complexity cost is real – the canary system requires soft fork coordination, on-chain monitoring infrastructure, and a community-wide consensus on what constitutes a valid trigger. BitMEX acknowledges this openly.

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The Governance Debate the Canary Fund Sits Inside

BIP-361, authored by Jameson Lopp and merged into the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal repository on April 15, 2026, represents the most structured protocol-level response to quantum risk currently in circulation.

Its Phase A bans new sends to quantum-vulnerable addresses three years after activation. Phase B, two years later, invalidates all legacy signatures, freezing any unmigrated coins outright.

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A speculative Phase C proposes zero-knowledge proofs linked to seed phrases for limited recovery, though feasibility remains unresolved.

The backlash was immediate and predictable. Critics argued BIP-361 violates Bitcoin’s core property-rights guarantees by preemptively restricting funds that have not been compromised.

Adam Back’s position, that Bitcoin must prepare for quantum risk through optional upgrades rather than coercive protocol changes, reflects the dominant skeptic view. The quantum security debate has been intensifying alongside broader market attention to Bitcoin’s long-term cryptographic assumptions.

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BitMEX’s canary fund attempts a third path: evidence-based intervention rather than precautionary freezing.

It preserves the status quo until the threat becomes empirically demonstrable, which satisfies the ‘your keys, your coins’ objection, until the canary trips, nothing changes.

The trade-off is that it provides no protection during the window between when a quantum adversary first achieves cryptographic capability and when they choose to trigger the canary.

That gap could be exploited silently. The question isn’t whether the canary fund is philosophically cleaner than BIP-361. It’s whether ‘wait for proof’ is an acceptable risk posture given that Google and Caltech research suggests quantum breakthroughs may arrive ahead of prior estimates. Other major blockchains, including Tron, are already building out quantum roadmaps without waiting for on-chain confirmation of a threat.

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Cantor Fitzgerald Donates $10 Million to Crypto PAC Led by Tether Executive

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Cantor Fitzgerald Donates $10 Million to Crypto PAC Led by Tether Executive

Cantor Fitzgerald has donated $10 million to Fellowship PAC, a crypto-focused super PAC chaired by Tether’s U.S. head of government affairs Jesse Spiro, according to Federal Election Commission filings disclosed Wednesday.

The donation comes at a moment when the line between traditional finance and crypto lobbying capital is becoming hard to define.

The headline number is large enough to matter. Whether it buys the regulatory outcomes the industry wants – and on what timeline – is the harder question.

Key Takeaways:
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  • Donor: Cantor Fitzgerald committed $10 million to Fellowship PAC, disclosed in February FEC filings.
  • Total raised: Wednesday’s FEC filing revealed $11 million in total contributions, including donations from other sources alongside Cantor’s $10 million.
  • PAC leadership: Fellowship PAC is chaired by Jesse Spiro, Tether’s U.S. head of government affairs, and was established in 2025.
  • Anchorage Digital: The digital asset bank separately contributed $1 million to Fellowship PAC.
  • Spending to date: Fellowship has deployed $3 million on advocacy advertising and $1.5 million backing three Republican candidates, including Kentucky Senate candidate Nate Morris and Georgia Representative Clay Fuller.
  • Cantor-Tether history: Cantor Fitzgerald has served as custodian for Tether’s reserve assets since 2021, making this donation an extension of an already entrenched institutional relationship.
  • Political context: Fellowship PAC secured over $100 million in funding commitments ahead of the prior election cycle, positioning itself alongside rivals Fairshake and Defend American Jobs.
  • Watch: FEC filings through 2025 and 2026 for additional commitments toward Fellowship’s $100 million goal and candidate endorsement patterns ahead of pivotal congressional sessions on crypto regulation.

How the Cantor-Fellowship Donation Actually Works, and What $10 Million Buys in Washington

A super PAC operates without contribution limits from corporations or individuals, provided it does not coordinate directly with candidates.

Fellowship PAC uses that structure to back pro-crypto candidates in federal races and fund issue-advocacy advertising – the $3 million already spent on advocacy ads is the clearest example of the latter in action.

Cantor Fitzgerald’s involvement is not a new relationship dressed up as political altruism. The firm has custodied Tether’s reserve assets since 2021, putting it at the center of the world’s most systemically significant stablecoin operation.

When Howard Lutnick, then Cantor’s CEO, now U.S. Secretary of Commerce, faced Senate confirmation hearings, lawmakers pressed him specifically on those crypto ties and their implications for liquidity markets and counter-terrorism financing policy.

Lutnick has since exited day-to-day operations; Cantor is now run by his sons. The $10 million donation follows that transition, which makes it a cleaner read on institutional intent rather than one executive’s personal calculus.

The firm is making a deliberate bet that pro-crypto regulatory outcomes in Washington are worth funding at scale.

The legislative target is not abstract. Congress is actively debating frameworks covering stablecoins and digital asset market structure under the CLARITY Act, and PAC money of this magnitude is aimed squarely at shaping who sits in the seats where those votes happen.

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Anchorage Digital’s concurrent $1 million contribution to Fellowship signals the same logic from the crypto-native banking side.

Photo: Bo Hines / CEO of Tether’s U.S. arm

The bullish read is straightforward: a $10 million check from a firm of Cantor’s standing signals that TradFi has moved from cautious observation to active political investment.

That is not the same as regulatory clarity arriving on any particular schedule. PAC spending influences candidate selection and creates political goodwill, it does not write legislation or guarantee floor votes.

The post Cantor Fitzgerald Donates $10 Million to Crypto PAC Led by Tether Executive appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Chiliz Eyes $0.05 as On-Chain Data and Parallel Channel Confirm Bullish Setup

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Chiliz Eyes $0.05 as On-Chain Data and Parallel Channel Confirm Bullish Setup

Chiliz (CHZ) surged 14.7% in the past 24 hours on April 16, trading at $0.0429 with a market cap of $441.9 million, as a convergence of technical and on-chain signals suggests a renewed push toward the $0.050 resistance zone.

Price broke above both the 20 and 50-period daily moving averages for the first time since the January 2026 fakeout. On-chain data shows exchange inflows near six-month lows, reinforcing the case for organic demand.

Daily Structure Points to a Breakout Attempt

CHZ has been building a base since February 2025, forming two distinct zones that have repeatedly absorbed selling pressure. The deeper support sits between $0.028 and $0.030. A secondary zone between $0.036 and $0.038 held on four separate occasions since mid-2025, with each rebound marked by green arrows on the chart.

On the resistance side, the $0.050 to $0.052 band has rejected CHZ at least three times over the same period (red arrows). In January 2026, the price temporarily pushed into the $0.062 to $0.064 region. That move failed quickly and price pulled back sharply through both resistance levels, resetting conditions for a more measured attempt.

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CHZ/USDT daily chart / Source: Tradingview

The April 16 daily candle closed at $0.04314, above both moving averages for the first time since the January peak (blue ellipse). Volume registered a notable spike alongside the close, ending a prolonged downtrend in trading activity.

The RSI is rising from neutral territory and has not yet reached overbought levels. The MACD histogram has turned positive, indicating that bullish momentum is accelerating on the daily timeframe.

Prior analysis of CHZ highlighted the difficulty of sustaining closes above these averages, making the current structure notable.

Four-Hour Channel Points to $0.046

The four-hour chart presents a parallel ascending channel dating back to February 19. Price has respected both the upper and lower bands as well as the midline throughout the pattern. Four distinct midline touches (blue circles) confirm its role as a dynamic pivot.

Chiliz is now trading above the midline at $0.04292. The upper band near $0.046 represents the next near-term target. A sustained close above that level would expose the $0.050 zone, which aligns directly with the daily resistance band. CHZ has previously required a confirmed daily close above $0.050 to sustain any move into the higher range.

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CHZ/USDT 4-hour chart / Source: Tradingview

The four-hour RSI has climbed above 70, reflecting strong short-term momentum. The MACD remains positive but is beginning to lose steam, which may produce a brief consolidation before another leg higher.

A pullback toward the $0.036 to $0.038 zone would negate the current structure. There, the channel lower band converges with daily support to form a reinforced floor.

Chiliz Whale Activity and Low Inflow Support the Bullish Case

Santiment data shows that whale transaction count for CHZ, tracking transfers above $100,000, registered a modest uptick on April 16. The spike is small relative to the peaks recorded during the January 2026 rally and the December 2025 accumulation phase.

That context is constructive. It suggests large players are cautiously re-entering rather than aggressively positioning, a pattern that has historically preceded sustained moves. Prior rebounds driven by whale accumulation at similar structural support levels were followed by multi-week price advances.

CHZ whale transaction count / Source: Santiment

Exchange inflow data reinforces that reading. The current inflow stands at just 1.09 million CHZ, one of the lowest readings over the past six months. For comparison, spikes above 200 million CHZ were recorded in November and December 2025 during periods of heavy distribution.

Low exchange inflow indicates that holders are not moving assets to selling venues. That dynamic is consistent with organic accumulation rather than manufactured price movement, the kind of setup that preceded each of CHZ’s recoveries from the $0.036 to $0.038 support zone over the past year.

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CHZ exchange inflow / Source: Santiment

Chiliz may extend toward $0.046 in the near term, then test the $0.050 to $0.052 resistance band. A decisive daily close above $0.052 could open the path toward the $0.062 to $0.064 region last visited during the January fakeout.

A failure to hold $0.038 would shift the probability back toward the deeper $0.028 to $0.030 accumulation zone and suggest the current breakout attempt has run out of fuel.

The post Chiliz Eyes $0.05 as On-Chain Data and Parallel Channel Confirm Bullish Setup appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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U.S. CFTC’s Selig says AI has helped make up for staffing cuts at key crypto watchdog

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Coinbase's Armstrong, Ripple's Garlinghouse among familiar crypto execs in U.S. CFTC advisory group

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is leaning into artificial intelligence and automation as it faces massive new oversight responsibilities, according to congressional testimony from Chairman Mike Selig, even as his agency’s workforce has declined significantly under the administration of President Donald Trump.

About a quarter of the CFTC’s staff has left since 2025, under Trump’s demands that the federal workforce be cut significantly, according to agency records. But the CFTC is also being called upon to regulate new and rapidly growing arenas for cryptocurrency and the prediction markets.

“Tools such as AI are going to be very helpful in surveilling and bringing the investigations, and we’re incorporating that into various workflows,” Selig told lawmakers of the House Agriculture Committee at a Thursday hearing, citing widespread use of Microsoft’s Copilot AI tool as one productivity aid. When asked about the staff declines at his agency, Selig said, “we are running more efficiently and effectively.”

“We’re putting a lot on your plate with digital assets, and we’re obviously going down this path with prediction markets,” noted committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson. He sought an assurance from the CFTC chief that if he finds himself “in a situation where you know the need for additional qualified staff emerges” that he’ll ask the panel for help.

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“Absolutely,” Selig responded.

He asserted that proper enforcement of the markets is a “top priority” of his, though the CFTC budget request for next year asked for only three more enforcement staff to make 108 people — still about 23% shy of the 140 the division had in 2025.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act that the Senate continues to work on would elevate the CFTC into a central role over non-securities crypto trading, which would include transactions in leading assets such as bitcoin and Ethereum’s ether (ETH). The agency is also claiming a dominant legal jurisdiction over the prediction markets such as at leading firms Polymarket and Kalshi, which are rocketing from levels measured in the millions of dollars a year ago to multiple billions now.

Selig’s Democratic predecessor, former Chairman Rostin Behnam, had routinely argued that the agency would need more people to oversee crypto and didn’t have the resources to police the world as prediction markets spread in depth and in a virtually unlimited breadth of contract topics. During Selig’s brief tenure, the prediction markets have erupted in accusations of insider trading, a few of which have been addressed by the firms themselves. But the markets have drawn heavy scrutiny on certain trades around U.S. military actions and government statements that suggest small numbers of anonymous traders made significant money on correct bets, suggesting the potential for insider trading from people with government insight.

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The chairman acknowledged “numerous investigations ongoing” in prediction markets, though he wouldn’t quantify a number or discuss their focus. He said the regulated platforms are the first line of defense against insider trading, fraud and market manipulation in the hundreds of new markets (binary event questions) that emerge every day on the platforms, while the CFTC itself is a second line of defense.

“We regularly reject contracts,” Selig noted. “We’re actively reviewing what’s out there,” he said, adding that his agency has a “zero tolerance” policy for illicit market activity.

“Anyone who engages in that behavior will face the full force of the law,” he said.

But Representative Angie Craig, the committee’s top Democrat, argued that “the agency’s workforce is stretched too thin,” especially considering the agency’s role as the “primary regulator of two of the fastest growing and most volatile markets.”

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“We must give the CFTC the staff, the funding and the clear statutory authority it needs to do its job,” Craig said.

The personnel declines at the regulator includes the commission itself, which is supposed to have five members under the law — including two commissioners from the minority party — but which has been left by the White House as a solitary posting of Selig. The chairman was questioned repeatedly about that during the Thursday oversight hearing, including whether he’d proceed with major rules as a one-person commission.

“We cannot for the sake of the American people slow down our rulemaking,” he said, suggesting he’ll move alone on new regulations. The CFTC is pursuing a preliminary rule process to set up guardrails for U.S. prediction markets, and Selig has also pushed policy initiatives in crypto.

Read More: CFTC sues Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut over states’ sports prediction market efforts

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Bitcoin Bull Run ‘Still Early’ as BTC Remains Below Key Level

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin trades below the profitability threshold for active holders, with early signs of BTC demand offering limited price support for now.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit range highs above $76,000 on Wednesday, but Glassnode analysts say data suggest that calling for the start of a new bull market is premature. 

New capital inflows have stayed weak, with Bitcoin’s growth rate remaining negative across all 105 trading days in 2026, highlighting a gap between stable price action and limited new demand.

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Bitcoin profitability signal remains unresolved

Glassnode analyst CryptoViz.art uses the true market mean (TMM) to estimate the average cost basis of active BTC investors. The metric divides investor capitalization by liveliness-adjusted circulating supply, filtering out inactive coins and the lost supply.

Bitcoin crossed below this level on Jan. 31 and has stayed there for 75 days. The move placed the average active holder in a loss position, with a peak drawdown of 20% and a current gap of about 5% below the entry level.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin’s true market mean. Source: Glassnode/X

Historical comparisons show 10 similar breaks since 2016, with durations ranging from two days to over 11 months. The deepest drawdowns reached 57% during the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 cycles, while the March 2020 event saw a 40% decline over 49 days. The analyst added, 

“That said, 75 days is still early. The 2018 and 2022 episodes didn’t bottom until months 5-9. The signal isn’t “all clear” — it’s watch closely.”

Reclaiming the TMM, currently at $78,013, is key for active investors to return to profit, and it has aligned with momentum resets in earlier cycles.

Related: Adam Back says Bitcoin’s post-quantum shift may reveal true Satoshi stash

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BTC capital outflows shape the price ceiling

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. points to a steady outflow of capital from the BTC market. The 365-day growth rate of market cap relative to realized cap has remained negative for all 105 trading days in 2026, with the latest reading at -0.000652.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin growth rate. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

In simple terms, the market is not attracting enough new money to support higher prices.

The 30-day realized cap change shows the same trend. Only seven days saw positive inflows this year, all during a brief period in mid-January. Since Jan. 23, the metric has stayed negative, though it has improved slightly to -0.32% from early April lows near -0.54%.

Realized cap has also dropped to $1.08 trillion from $1.12 trillion since the start of the year, a 3.23% decline.

Adler Jr. said the recent improvement signals a slowdown in BTC outflows, not a bullish reversal. A meaningful shift would require both metrics to turn positive and hold above zero for a sustained period.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin realized cap change. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

Related: Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin fund overtakes WisdomTree after 6 trading days