The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has urged the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals to affirm federal reach over prediction markets in a dispute centered on Kalshi and the state of Ohio. In an amicus brief filed on behalf of the agency, the CFTC argues that Ohio’s attempt to curb Kalshi’s sports-event contracts represents a jurisdictional overreach that threatens the CFTC’s longstanding oversight of event-based markets traded on designated contract markets (DCMs).

The dispute began when Ohio authorities told Kalshi last year to halt its sports-event contracts in the state, labeling them unlicensed sports gambling. Kalshi subsequently sued the Ohio Casino Control Commission and the state attorney general in an effort to obtain a federal court order blocking state action. A federal district court in Ohio denied Kalshi’s request in March, prompting an appeal to the Sixth Circuit.

“The federal district court in Ohio took an improperly narrow view of the Commission’s jurisdiction, and we are asking the Court of Appeals to correct that error,” CFTC Chairman Mike Selig stated. “As I’ve said repeatedly, the CFTC will not allow overzealous state governments to undermine the agency’s longstanding authority over these markets.”

The amicus filing signals the CFTC’s willingness to mobilize federal authority to shield prediction markets from potential state encroachments. The agency contends that Ohio’s actions would disrupt the regulatory framework surrounding event contracts, which the CFTC views as swaps or binary options traded on DCMs under federal supervision. The brief argues that the Ohio jurisdictional overreach could imperil the CFTC’s authority over similar contracts beyond sports-related events.

The Kalshi-Ohio case is part of a broader legal riddle about how far states may go in regulating federally overseen prediction markets. The decision has practical consequences for major platforms in the space, including Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as other CFTC-regulated venues such as Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. The outcome could influence how state regulators interact with federally designated markets and may shape future licensing and enforcement strategies for market operators.

The CFTC’s latest amicus brief is the agency’s second supporting a prediction-market contender. In February, the CFTC filed a brief in the Ninth Circuit in a separate matter supporting Crypto.com in a Nevada regulatory dispute. The agency’s posture suggests a broader pattern of federal protection for prediction markets against state attempts to apply divergent regulatory theories to activity that falls under federal market regulation.

Key takeaways

• The Sixth Circuit is asked to endorse the CFTC’s view that federal jurisdiction over event contracts cannot be overridden by state actions, preserving the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets traded on DCMs.
• The legal clash centers on Kalshi’s ability to offer sports-event contracts within Ohio and whether state regulators can bar federally regulated markets within their borders.
• The CFTC’s amicus brief marks the agency’s second public backing of a prediction-market platform, following a prior filing in the Ninth Circuit on Crypto.com’s Nevada-related regulatory matter.
• The dispute sits within a wider pattern of states challenging federal regulation of prediction markets, including recent suits and cease-and-desist actions involving Wisconsin, New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois.
• Analysts and compliance teams should monitor how the appellate court interprets federal over state power in the prediction-market space, given potential licensing, cross-border operations, and regulatory alignment considerations for platform operators.

Context and legal significance

The core question in Kalshi’s Ohio case is whether state authorities may regulate or restrict “event contracts” that the CFTC treats as part of its federal mandate to oversee swaps and binary options trading on designated contract markets. The CFTC contends that allowing state intervention would “imperil” the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these contracts and thereby threaten the integrity of a nationwide regulatory regime designed to oversee formalized risk-transfer markets. The agency’s posture underscores the Biden-era enforcement emphasis on preserving federal preemption in financial-market regulation, particularly as prediction markets gain more institutional traction and visitor interest from mainstream platforms.

Ohio’s stance—describing Kalshi’s offerings as unlicensed sports gambling—reflects a broader tension between state gambling laws and federal market oversight. Critics of aggressive state enforcement argue that a patchwork of state interpretations could complicate compliance for national platforms, forcing operators to navigate divergent rules that may conflict with federal standards. Proponents of state action, however, contend that consumer protection and revenue considerations justify local oversight. The Sixth Circuit’s eventual ruling could clarify how courts balance these competing interests, with implications for both licensing regimes and enforcement authorities across the United States.

Regulatory landscape and cross-cutting implications

The Ohio episode is one thread in a miscellany of legal actions that collectively test the boundaries of federal market regulation. The CFTC’s suits against Wisconsin, New York, Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois—where regulators targeted various prediction-market ventures or the operators themselves—illustrate a sustained effort to guard the federal framework from state-by-state constriction. In the Ohio matter, the question is not merely whether Kalshi violated state rules, but whether the state could assert jurisdiction over activity that the CFTC administers on a nationwide basis.

From a policy perspective, the dispute has significance for platforms that operate or plan to operate prediction markets in multiple jurisdictions. Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com are among the players tied to the CFTC-regulated DCM framework, and the outcome could affect licensing pathways, registration requirements, and the scope of permissible event-contract offerings. For institutions, these developments intersect with AML/KYC considerations, risk controls, and ongoing compliance with a federal standard that preempts inconsistent state actions.

Beyond the U.S. federal-state dynamic, observers note potential cross-border ramifications. European markets sit under a different regulatory architecture, with MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) shaping licensing and supervision for crypto-asset-related activities. While MiCA operates in a separate jurisdiction, the Kalshi-Ohio dispute highlights the ongoing friction between provincial or national regulatory prerogatives and centralized, federally coordinated market oversight—a theme that may inform cross-border platform strategies and regulatory dialogue in the years ahead.

Institutional impact and compliance considerations

For exchanges and platform operators, the case underscores the importance of robust licensing strategies and clear delineation of the jurisdictional boundaries governing event-based contracts. Compliance teams should monitor evolving appellate rulings, as decisions at the Sixth Circuit level could recalibrate expectations for state interactions with federally regulated markets. Risk and legal teams may need to review internal controls around product offerings to ensure alignment with the prevailing interpretation of what constitutes a DCM-traded event contract and how those contracts are classified for regulatory purposes.

From a governance perspective, the CFTC’s involvement in amicus filings indicates a willingness to engage in strategic litigation that defines the perimeter of federal authority over prediction markets. Institutions should prepare for continued regulatory contestation across districts and circuits, with potential implications for licensing, enforcement risk, and the scalability of platform operations in the United States.

For market participants, the ongoing discourse reinforces the importance of transparent compliance programs, clear product disclosures, and consistent enforcement narratives. In parallel, the case may influence how state regulators assess related gaming and gambling statutes in relation to federally regulated financial-market activities, potentially prompting harmonization efforts or renewed legislative dialogue at both state and federal levels.

Closing perspective

The Kalshi-Ohio matter remains a focal point in the evolving interface between state regulatory prerogatives and federal market oversight. While the Sixth Circuit weighs the CFTC’s jurisdictional claim, observers should watch for how the appellate court interprets the balance of powers and what that portends for the broader ecosystem of prediction-market platforms. The outcome will not only shape licensing and enforcement norms but could also influence cross-border regulatory alignment and the strategic posture of institutional market participants in this rapidly developing sector.

The ongoing war in Iran and the race to dominate the AI sector will result in money printing that could benefit the crypto ecosystem and push Bitcoin back to its all-time high this year, according to Arthur Hayes, the chief investment officer of crypto investment fund Maelstrom.

In a Substack post on Tuesday, Hayes said the competition between US and China to win the arms race has led both to pursue looser financial conditions and more fiat printing as the technology “directly relates to national security.”

“The combination of the political will to win the AI race and the financial will to fund the build-out with printed money and bank loans produces the perfect environment for crypto,” he said.  

Source: Arthur Hayes

“There will be vastly more units of fiat tomorrow than today, and the rate of change is accelerating due to rapidly increasing yearly AI and electrification CAPEX expenditures,” Hayes added. 

Most of the crypto sector registered new all-time highs last year, with the market capitalization hitting $4.28 trillion in October, according to CoinMarketCap. However, the market slumped toward the end of last year, and analysts have debated when it will fully recover.

Bitcoin to $126,000 is a “foregone conclusion”

Hayes said war is inflationary and the Iran conflict is no different. Military spending and a shift by nations toward domestic infrastructure investment rather than US Treasurys and equities will lead to further money printing. 

He also predicted in March that the US Federal Reserve could ease monetary policy to help finance the country’s conflict with Iran and boost crypto.

Related: Hyperliquid’s HYPE price will increase by August, predicts Arthur Hayes

“The politicians support this money printing out of real and perceived necessity. That is why Bitcoin post-February 28th is outperforming the other major risky assets such as gold and US tech stocks,” Hayes added.

Bitcoin has traded between $79,467 and $82,496 over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko. It was trading at about $81,000 as of Wednesday, up more than 31% from its Feb. 6 low of $62,822. Gold was trading around $4,581 at the start of February and has climbed to $4,710 in the same timeframe, for a 2% gain.

Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin has been outperforming other major assets, such as gold, since February. Source: Substack 

“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion,” Hayes said.

“I expect the rally to intensify and the haters to cower in the corner as Bitcoin’s upward price trajectory turns explosive after punching through $90,000, where many call over-writers will rush to cover as their strike gets taken out.”

Magazine: Guide to the top and emerging global crypto hubs — Mid-2026 

Bitcoin BTC$81,199.33 shrugged off the inflation scare almost as quickly as the print landed.

The largest cryptocurrency dropped to $79,879 in late U.S. hours Tuesday after the April Consumer Price Index came in at 3.8% year-over-year, hotter than economists had estimated, with gasoline prices doing most of the lift since the Iran war began. BTC recovered to $81,208 by Asian morning Wednesday, ending the session up 0.3% over 24 hours after trading a $1,400 range. The dip got bought aggressively.

Among the majors, BNB led with a 2.5% gain to $677, while dogecoin added 1.3% to $0.1114. Ether dropped 0.3% over 24 hours to $2,300 and is now down 3.2% on the seven-day, the laggard of the cohort. Solana slipped 0.6% to $95.52. XRP traded at $1.45, down 0.5% on the day.

The CPI print rattled traditional markets harder than crypto. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.9%, with semiconductor stocks taking the brunt of the selling after weeks of outsized gains.

The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield held just under 4%, while Japan’s 20-year bond yield breached its January peak to touch the highest level since 1997 as elevated energy prices add to inflation pressure globally.

Asian equities clawed back early losses after the White House confirmed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang would join President Donald Trump’s trip to China, lifting chipmaker futures.

The flows underneath crypto are still positive. CoinShares reported global crypto fund inflows of $858 million last week, with bitcoin products absorbing $706 million, ether $77 million, solana $48 million, and XRP $40 million.

The largest data point was the $14 million in outflows from bitcoin short positions, the biggest weekly short unwind of 2026. Money is leaving bearish bets on bitcoin even as the macro tape turns choppier, which is the kind of positioning shift that typically precedes upward grinds rather than capitulations.

FxPro’s chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said the broader sentiment index has settled just below the midpoint of its range, recording readings of 47, 48 and 49 over the past three days, suggesting bears still have a slight upper hand.

Bitcoin “lost its upward momentum as it approached the 200-day moving average,” he said in a note, referring to the long-term trend line that smooths out short-term price noise.

“Although this line is trending downwards, the market has failed to break through it for the past six days. On the other hand, as the decline is quite modest, it resembles nothing more than a breather following a rally.”

CoinShares also noted that last week’s inflow surge came alongside a compromise on stablecoin yield treatment under the CLARITY Act, which the Senate Banking Committee is expected to consider next week. The regulatory progress is one of the few clean tailwinds the market has had since the Iran war began, and it is showing up in the flow data rather than the price action.

For now, bitcoin holding $81,000 after a CPI print this hot and a Treasury yield setup this tight is the kind of behaviour that suggests structural buyers are still active under the price. Whether that holds through next week’s Senate markup and the next round of macro data is the next test.

LMAX Group has unveiled Kiosk, a hosted portal designed for institutional clients to deposit digital assets into LMAX Custody and use them as collateral across a broad trading universe that spans spot foreign exchange, precious metals, CFDs, perpetual futures, and digital-asset markets. The platform, announced on Tuesday, provides tools for deposits and withdrawals, API credential management, WalletConnect, security controls, and treasury management, delivering an integrated on-ramp for traditional and crypto trading workflows.

Hyper-efficient collateral will be the foundation of modern, converged capital markets, and Kiosk offers a compliant way for institutions to integrate digital assets into their core trading infrastructure.

David Mercer, CEO of LMAX Group, described the platform as a practical step toward merging digital assets with conventional market infrastructure, underscoring the emphasis on compliance and operational readiness for institutions venturing into on-chain collateral.

The launch aligns with LMAX’s broader strategic push to connect traditional and digital markets, enabling crypto holdings to back trading activity across multiple asset classes. By turning digital assets into usable collateral within a regulated framework, the firm aims to streamline liquidity and custody without forcing clients to abandon established processes.

The move sits within a wider industry trend where core financial gatekeepers are exploring tokenized and on-chain collateral assets. Earlier in February, Franklin Templeton announced an institutional collateral program with crypto exchange Binance that lets clients use tokenized money market fund shares as collateral while the underlying assets remain in regulated custody. The model is designed to let institutions earn yield on regulated MMF holdings while leveraging the same assets to support digital-asset trading, without relinquishing custody arrangements.

In another signal of growing momentum, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) disclosed plans on May 4 to test tokenized securities in a pilot set to begin in July, with a broader rollout targeted for October. The plan emphasizes that tokenized real-world assets would carry the same protections and ownership rights as their traditional counterparts, a message likely to reassure institutions wary of custody and governance risk in on-chain assets.

Key takeaways

• LMAX’s Kiosk enables institutional clients to post digital assets as collateral for a wide range of trading activities, including spot FX, metals, CFDs, perpetual futures, and digital assets, via a hosted portal connected to LMAX Custody.
• The platform integrates deposits/withdrawals, API credential management, WalletConnect, security controls, and treasury management to streamline on-chain collateral within a regulated framework.
• The rollout reflects a broader trend of major financial players exploring tokenized collateral and on-chain assets to support multi-asset trading without disrupting custody arrangements.
• Franklin Templeton’s collateral program with Binance and DTCC’s tokenized-securities pilot illustrate the sector-wide shift toward on-chain collateral while maintaining traditional investor protections and custody standards.
• Regulatory and governance considerations, as well as adoption pace, will shape how quickly such cross-asset collateral facilities scale across institutions and asset classes.

LMAX’s Kiosk in the context of converged markets

LMAX frames Kiosk as a pivotal piece in its effort to blend traditional and digital asset ecosystems. By enabling institutions to deposit digital assets into custody and simultaneously deploy them as collateral for conventional and crypto-native trading, the firm signals a growing appetite among incumbents to leverage crypto liquidity within established risk and compliance frameworks. The product’s design emphasizes practical interoperability, including WalletConnect support and API credential management, which reduces friction for institutions transitioning to on-chain collateral while preserving operational controls and security standards.

On-chain collateral as a growing institutional theme

The Kiosk launch comes amid a broader industry arc where large financial players are trialing tokenized and on-chain collateral solutions. Franklin Templeton’s collaboration with Binance illustrates how tokenized money market fund shares can function as collateral, with the underlying assets retained in regulated custody to address risk and custody concerns. This approach aims to deliver yield opportunities on traditional assets while simultaneously expanding the set of assets usable as collateral for digital trading activity.

DTCC’s announced tokenized-securities pilot further underscores the sector’s shift toward on-chain representation of real-world assets. Scheduled for a July pilot with an October full launch, the plan envisions tokenized securities offering the same investor protections and ownership rights as their conventional counterparts, potentially accelerating cross-border settlement, custody, and liquidity among a broader ecosystem of market participants.

What this means for markets and participants

For institutions, Kiosk represents a practical pathway to harmonize digital-asset holdings with existing risk controls and trading workflows. If such platforms prove scalable and compliant at a broad scale, firms could see faster collateral turnover, improved capital efficiency, and new avenues to monetize crypto holdings without compromising custody or governance standards. Traders and fund allocators may gain more flexible access to collateralized liquidity, while custodians and fintech providers are pushed to strengthen security, governance, and interoperability across on-chain and off-chain environments.

However, the convergence of traditional markets with on-chain collateral also raises questions about regulatory alignment, disclosure expectations, and liability in the event of asset price swings or platform outages. As DTCC and other regulators explore tokenized assets and cross-asset collateral, market participants will closely watch how safeguards evolve, how risk is measured across multi-asset positions, and how enforceable protections translate into real-world trade execution and settlement.

For now, Kiosk stands as a concrete example of how institutions are experimenting with using digital assets to support broad collateral needs, rather than merely holding crypto for speculative purposes. The pace of adoption will hinge on continued clarity from regulators, the robustness of custody solutions, and the interoperability of cross-asset platforms with existing risk management frameworks.

Readers should keep an eye on next steps from LMAX and its peers, including how the DTCC tokenized-securities program progresses and how Franklin Templeton’s model unfolds in practice. These developments will shape the trajectory of converged capital markets and influence the evolving role of on-chain collateral in traditional finance.

TLDR:

• Mitsui & Co. Digital AM launched Japan’s first land-backed digital security tied to AEON Omiya’s leasehold rights.
• The asset carries an appraisal value of 8.6 billion yen, with a minimum investment entry point of 100,000 yen.
• Investors earn a 3.4% pre-tax annual yield backed by a 50-year fixed-term lease running through June 2076.
• Unit holders receive 500 WAON POINTS annually per 10 units, linking returns to Aeon Group’s retail ecosystem.

Digital security backed by land rights is now a reality in Japan. Mitsui & Co. Digital Asset Management has launched a tokenized product tied to AEON Omiya’s land.

The company describes this as Japan’s first digital security backed by low-lying land assets. The property carries an appraisal value of approximately 8.6 billion yen. Investors can enter from 100,000 yen, with an expected annual yield of 3.4% pre-tax.

Investment Structure and Asset Details

The investment targets the land beneath AEON Omiya, located in Kita-ku, Saitama City. The site spans about 46,475 square meters and holds an appraisal value of roughly 8.6 billion yen.

Mitsui & Co. Digital AM described the move as “a new small-lot model for real estate investment,” marking a new direction for tokenized assets in Japan.

Aeon Retail Co., Ltd., a core Aeon Group company, serves as the lessee on this asset. A 50-year fixed-term leasehold agreement runs from June 2026 to June 2076.

This long-term lease provides investors with a reliable source of monthly land rent income throughout the holding period.

Since the offering covers only land and not the building above it, repair cost exposure remains minimal. The product is structured with income gain as the primary objective.

The company noted the design is “structured with an emphasis on income gain,” reducing the burden typically associated with direct property ownership.

The product issues a total of 356,000 units, with a minimum entry point of 100,000 yen. Redemption is scheduled for July 31, 2031, covering an operating period of roughly five years and one month. Mitsui & Co. Digital AM offers the product through its alternative investment platform, ALTERNA.

Blockchain Infrastructure and Investor Benefits

The digital security runs on the iBET for Fin blockchain infrastructure, developed for financial applications in Japan. It is structured as tokenized securities through a beneficiary securities issuance trust scheme. This setup ensures the product meets Japan’s existing regulatory framework for real estate digital securities.

Investors holding 10 or more units receive 500 WAON POINTS as an annual benefit. WAON is the loyalty program linked to the Aeon Group’s broad retail network.

The company confirmed that “500 WAON POINTS are awarded as a preferential treatment every year for each 10 units held,” adding non-financial value to the product.

Omiya serves as a major transportation hub where more than 10 rail lines converge, including the Shinkansen. Kita Ward, Saitama City, continues to record steady population growth, supporting demand for large commercial facilities.

Mitsui & Co. Digital AM noted that the area is “expected to continue to have residential demand as the population continues to grow.”

New family-oriented condominiums are also under construction in the surrounding area. This residential development is expected to bring consistent foot traffic to AEON Omiya over time.

As a result, the commercial facility is well-positioned to maintain stable occupancy throughout the investment period.

Solana price pulled back on Monday after facing rejection near the key $100 psychological level, though traders continue watching a potentially bullish moving average crossover that could support another upside attempt.

According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) traded around $95 at press time on May 12 after briefly climbing as high as $97.6 earlier in the session. The token remains up sharply from its April lows near $80 despite the latest rejection from the upper resistance zone.

The recent cooldown comes as broader crypto market sentiment weakened following Bitcoin’s retreat below the $82,000 level amid rising geopolitical uncertainty tied to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. Risk appetite across altcoins also softened after investors began locking in profits from last week’s rally.

Despite the pullback, Solana continues to show signs of improving technical structure after reclaiming several important moving averages over the past two weeks.

Market sentiment around the Solana ecosystem has also remained relatively stable as on-chain activity gradually recovers. While decentralized application volumes remain below peak levels seen earlier this year, network usage and validator participation have stopped deteriorating at the same pace witnessed during the first quarter correction.

At the same time, derivatives positioning has started improving modestly, with futures activity stabilizing after weeks of subdued participation. Traders now appear focused on whether Solana can establish support above the mid-$90 region before another breakout attempt toward $100.

Solana price analysis

On the daily chart, Solana recently broke above the important resistance cluster near $92 before rallying toward the $97–$100 region, where sellers quickly stepped back in.

However, the broader structure still appears constructive as SOL continues trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day simple moving averages, which are now tightly compressed between roughly $85 and $88. The close convergence between these moving averages often signals that momentum is preparing for a larger directional move.

Notably, the 20-day SMA is now approaching a bullish crossover above the 50-day SMA, which could strengthen short-term bullish momentum if confirmed over the coming sessions.

The Supertrend indicator has also flipped green for the first time since January, suggesting that buyers may gradually be regaining broader trend control after months of bearish pressure.

Still, the higher timeframe trend remains somewhat cautious as Solana continues trading below its downward-sloping 200-day SMA near the $113 region, which remains a major long-term resistance barrier overhead.

If bulls manage to reclaim momentum and push above the recent high near $97, the next major upside target could emerge at the psychological $100 level. A successful breakout above that region may then open the door toward the $112–$115 resistance area near the 200-day SMA.

On the downside, failure to hold above the moving average cluster near $85–$88 could weaken the bullish setup and potentially trigger a pullback toward the $80 support region, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively.