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Trump Announces Israel and Lebanon Ceasefire, But Oil Crisis Deepens

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War Powers Resolution Vote Outcome

The US House of Representatives rejected a War Powers Resolution on Iran by a 213-214 vote today, preserving President Donald Trump’s authority to continue military operations.

The narrow defeat came as Trump simultaneously announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, positioning himself as a peacemaker even as Congress debated constraints on his war powers.

War Powers Vote Falls One Short

Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY) introduced H.Con.Res. 40 to force the withdrawal of US Armed Forces from hostilities with Iran without explicit congressional authorization. The measure failed along largely partisan lines.

Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) was the lone Democrat to vote against the resolution, siding with Republicans. Meanwhile, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), a frequent critic of expansive executive war powers, crossed party lines to support it. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) voted “present.”

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War Powers Resolution Vote Outcome
War Powers Resolution Vote Outcome. Source: BeInCrypto

The Senate rejected a similar resolution 47-52 a day earlier. Democrats have now forced at least four such votes in both chambers since the Iran conflict began in late February, all failing along partisan lines.

Trump Announces Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire

Hours before the vote, Trump announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire starting at 5 p.m. EST.

The deal followed the first direct talks between the two countries in 34 years, held in Washington with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Trump said he would invite both leaders to the White House for what he called the first meaningful talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983.

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the truce, urging “a path to permanent peace” and full respect of Lebanon’s sovereignty.

Energy Crisis Deepens Alongside Conflict

The International Energy Agency warned that Europe holds just six weeks of jet fuel supply as the Iran conflict disrupts global energy flows.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described the situation as the largest energy crisis the agency has ever tracked.

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Dutch airline KLM has already cancelled 80 flights over the next month due to rising fuel costs. Jet fuel prices across Europe have surged by over 100% since the war began.

Gulf and European officials now estimate the U.S. may need six months to reach a deal with Iran, suggesting the energy shock could extend well into summer.

Whether the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire eases broader regional tensions or simply shifts attention remains the open question for markets.

The post Trump Announces Israel and Lebanon Ceasefire, But Oil Crisis Deepens appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin’s Negative Funding Rate Sticks While BTC Trades Above $75K

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Bitcoin’s Negative Funding Rate Sticks While BTC Trades Above $75K

Key takeaways:

  • Negative Bitcoin futures funding rates signal bear-market losses and forced liquidations rather than a shift in sentiment. 

  • Institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and corporate accumulation suggest that spot demand remains solid.

Bitcoin (BTC) sold off in early trading hours at the US stock market open, briefly losing the $75,000 level before rebounding. This unexpected price swing triggered $120 million in liquidations of leveraged long (buy) BTC futures positions. During this ordeal, the Bitcoin funding rate has remained negative, which could hint at further downside and a potential advantage to the bears. 

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas

The negative funding rate has been the norm since Monday, indicating a lack of demand for bullish leverage. Negative rates mean shorts (sellers) are the ones paying to keep their positions open. Under neutral conditions, the indicator should range between 5% and 10% to compensate for the cost of capital and exchange risks. At first sight, a 20% rate indicates conviction, but that is not the whole story.

Liquidations back Bitcoin’s negative funding rate

The perpetual contract funding rates are calculated every 8 hours on most exchanges. Temporary spikes to 20%, either positive or negative, are not particularly concerning for most traders, as they amount to a 0.05% daily fee. In essence, even if the position has extremely high leverage, such as 20x, the cost is 1%. Unless this issue persists for much longer, it is hardly a burden.

Bitcoin futures aggregate liquidation history, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin bearish positions have been forcefully liquidated for $365 million since Monday, which has naturally eroded collateral on short positions. Traders could have opted to sit tight rather than rush to add margin, anticipating that funding rates would adjust on their own. Thus, the negative funding rate reflects losses from bears rather than conviction.

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s intraday moves have largely tracked the S&P 500 index for the past couple of weeks. The US stock market jumped to an all-time high on Thursday while Bitcoin remains distant from its $126,200 peak. Consecutive failures to re-establish the $76,000 level partially explain the lack of enthusiasm in BTC derivatives markets. Still, the latest round of US economic data is supportive for risk markets, including Bitcoin.

US industrial production decreased by 0.5% in March from the previous month, according to data released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday. Consumer durable goods were the negative highlight, with automotive production down 2.8%. In parallel, the continuing jobless claims increased 31,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.818 million during the week ended April 4.

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While counterintuitive, the S&P 500 benefited from the increased economic recession, which forced the government to accelerate stimulus measures. The upward pressure on inflation, which has also been fueled by the surge in oil prices, reduces incentives to hold fixed-income investments.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital–Analyst

Deribit Bitcoin options premium put-to-call ratio. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options market data provides no signs of excessive demand for downside price protection. The premium paid on put (sell) options on Deribit has lagged behind the equivalent call (buy) instruments over the past week. The $921 million in net inflows into US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs over five days, along with continued accumulation from Strategy (MSTR US), boosted investors’ confidence. 

At the moment, Bitcoin’s negative funding rate does not raise alarms, especially since institutional investor demand remains strong in BTC’s spot markets.