Crypto analysts are divided over whether markets will see a major Bitcoin sell-off in May, a pattern that has emerged in the last two bear markets during US mid-term election years. 

In May 2018, Bitcoin crashed from nearly $10,000 to about $7,000 by the end of the month. It happened again in May 2022, when Bitcoin fell nearly 30% from about $40,000 to $28,500 before falling further in June to $20,000. 

With 2026 also a bear market year coinciding with a US mid-term election, there are concerns it could happen again. 

“The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history. Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect. Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time,” crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar said on Sunday.

Enkelaar said a similar move could see Bitcoin prices collapse to $33,000 despite the advancement of key legislation, the CLARITY Act, positive crypto sentiment from the Trump administration and potential trade deals between the US and China.

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, also said Sunday that there would be a higher probability of a new capitulation phase if Bitcoin remains under $78,000, with bears “showing signs of strength.”

Bitcoin was trading at about $76,900 at the time of writing, down 5.6% over the past seven days.

The calendar didn’t cause previous crashes, analyst argues

Jeff Ko, chief analyst at the CoinEx exchange, told Cointelegraph on Monday that midterm election years have coincided with major Bitcoin bear markets, “so some traders may be tempted to frame 2026 as another ‘sell in May’ setup.” 

However, behind that historical seasonality were more concrete macro drivers, such as the Mt. Gox aftermath, China’s ICO crackdown, Fed tightening and the Terra/FTX collapses, he said.

“The calendar didn’t cause those drawdowns — specific shocks did.” 

Related: Bitcoin slides below $79K on macro fears: Can fixed-income outflows save it?

Ko said he doesn’t expect BTC to repeat the 70% to 80% drawdowns seen in past cycles because the market structure has fundamentally changed.

“Spot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption, and the CLARITY Act moving through Congress have meaningfully broadened and institutionalized the buyer base compared with past cycles,” he added. 

“In my view, a move toward the mid-$60k or high-$50k range could be defensible under a macro shock or a significant ETF outflow cascade. But a move back to $33k would likely require something genuinely systemic to break, rather than simply a repeat of historical seasonality.”

Key support level must hold 

MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe was also bullish, saying on X Sunday that the current Bitcoin price action “doesn’t shout for new lows” but is “consolidating after a run of 40%.”

However, an important support level that is currently preventing a larger decline is the $76,000 area, he cautioned. 

“If that level is lost, I would assume that the markets will see a further downward fall towards lower boundaries,” he said.

Trader eyes key support level that must hold. Source: Michaël van de Poppe

Magazine: eToro founder timed Bitcoin top perfectly due to belief in 4 year cycles

TLDR:

• Blockaid’s exploit detection system identified an active attack draining $11.58M from the Verus-Ethereum bridge.
• Peckshield confirmed 103.6 tBTC, 1,625 ETH, and 147,000 USDC were stolen and swapped for 5,402 ETH.
• GoPlus found the attacker used a low-value transaction to trigger a batch-transfer of all bridge reserves.
• The attacker’s wallet was pre-funded with 1 ETH via Tornado Cash roughly 14 hours before the exploit began.

The Verus-Ethereum bridge is under an active exploit that has drained approximately $11.58 million in digital assets. Blockchain security firm Blockaid identified the attack through its exploit detection system on Sunday.

The stolen funds included tBTC, ETH, and USDC. The attacker subsequently converted those assets into ETH. Multiple security companies have since confirmed the breach and traced the attacker’s on-chain activity.

How the Attack Unfolded

Blockaid was among the first to publicly flag the exploit. The firm identified the attacker’s externally owned account as address “0x5aBb91B9c01A5Ed3aE762d32B236595B459D5777.” The drained funds were moved to a separate wallet at “0x65Cb8b128Bf6e690761044CCECA422bb239C25F9.”

Peckshield provided a detailed breakdown of what was taken from the bridge. According to the firm, the attacker drained 103.6 tBTC, 1,625 ETH, and 147,000 USDC from the protocol. Those assets were then swapped for roughly 5,402 ETH, valued at around $11.4 million at the time.

Another security firm, GoPlus, shed light on the method used in the attack. The attacker sent a low-value transaction to the bridge contract and called a specific function. That function triggered the bridge contract to batch-transfer its reserve assets directly to the drainer’s wallet.

The exploit transaction has been publicly logged on Etherscan, providing a transparent on-chain record. The bridge contract address involved is “0x71518580f36feceffe0721f06ba4703218cd7f63.” Security researchers continue to monitor the addresses involved for further movement.

Attacker’s Funding Trail Points to Tornado Cash

Peckshield also traced how the attacker initially funded their wallet before carrying out the exploit. The attacker’s address received 1 ETH through Tornado Cash approximately 14 hours before the attack began. Tornado Cash is a crypto mixer commonly used to obscure the origin of funds on-chain.

This funding method is a recognized pattern among on-chain bad actors seeking to hide their identity. By routing startup funds through a mixer, the attacker made it harder to link the exploit wallet to any prior history. Investigators typically watch for such patterns when tracing the source of stolen assets.

At the time of writing, the stolen funds remain in the drainer wallet identified by Blockaid. No confirmed recovery measures or protocol pause announcements had been publicly issued by the Verus team. The broader DeFi community has been alerted to avoid interacting with the bridge in the meantime.

The attack adds to a long list of bridge exploits that have plagued the crypto industry in recent years. Cross-chain bridges remain a high-value target due to the large reserves they hold and the complexity of their smart contract logic.

TLDR:

• XLM trades at $0.1517 and has posted a -11.55% weekly decline in pressure.
• Market structure remains intact as consolidation continues after the prior macro breakout phase.
• Stellar TVL climbs to $191.6M, supported by tokenization and institutional ecosystem growth.
• A breakout above resistance could reprice XLM toward $0.681 within a broader bullish structure setup.

Stellar (XLM) trades at $0.1517 as of this writing with $65.38M in daily volume, slipping 0.05% in 24 hours and extending a 11.55% weekly decline.

Despite short-term weakness, Stellar’s broader structure, consolidation, rising ecosystem activity, and expanding TVL are shaping a longer-term breakout narrative toward higher liquidity zones.

Market Structure Keeps Stellar Price Prediction in Focus

Stellar continues to trade within a prolonged consolidation phase after its late-2024 expansion wave. Price action near $0.15 reflects a controlled pullback rather than a structural breakdown.

The asset previously broke a multi-year descending trendline from its 2021 peak. Since that breakout, the structure has leaned toward reaccumulation rather than distribution.

Market behavior shows repeated impulse moves followed by compressed corrections. This pattern often appears in continuation phases where momentum resets before expansion resumes.

Volatility has narrowed significantly across recent sessions. Selling pressure has also softened, with no strong capitulation signals appearing in recent market data.

From a technical standpoint, Stellar remains aligned with a bullish continuation scenario as long as higher lows persist. The descending resistance zone remains the key barrier limiting upside acceleration.

A clean breakout above this structure would shift attention toward the $0.681 liquidity region. That level aligns with historical resistance and could act as a magnet for momentum flows.

TVL Expansion Reinforces Stellar Price Prediction Outlook

Beyond price charts, Stellar’s on-chain ecosystem has expanded meaningfully over the past year. Total value locked has climbed to $191.6 million, according to DefiLlama data.

This marks a significant rise from sub-$10 million levels recorded in early 2024. The expansion reflects consistent capital inflows into network applications.

Stellar’s distributed asset value has also surpassed $2 billion. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries and bond products form a major part of this growth.

The network’s shift toward real-world asset tokenization has strengthened its institutional profile. This transition continues to attract structured capital rather than speculative flows.

Protocol upgrades have supported this shift. The Soroban smart contract layer and Protocol 25 improvements expanded scalability and functionality across the ecosystem.

Institutional integrations, including participation from Franklin Templeton and Amundi, have reinforced long-term adoption trends. These developments have expanded use cases beyond payments into broader financial infrastructure.

A researcher commented on X: “Stellar’s ecosystem expansion is accelerating even as price consolidates within a tight range.”

Within this environment, Stellar remains tied to structural conditions rather than short-term volatility. A breakout above $0.681 would place the next macro extension near $1.29 into focus.

TLDR:

• Nearly 60% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, reflecting strong long-term holder conviction.
• Exchange-held BTC has fallen to a six-year low as roughly 500,000 coins have permanently left exchanges.
• The SLRV ratio sits deep in its historical bottom zone, signaling market apathy and low speculation.
• BTC STH MVRV has reclaimed 1.0, marking the start of short-term holders rebuilding unrealized profits.

Bitcoin on-chain data is pointing to a notable shift in market conditions, according to Binance Research. The firm identified four key indicators suggesting that available sell-side supply may be tightening.

Exchange balances have fallen to a six-year low, while long-term holder conviction remains near historically elevated levels.

Short-term holders are also beginning to rebuild unrealized gains after months of sustained pressure. Together, these signals suggest a market that may be gradually working through exhaustion.

Supply Dormancy Climbs as Bitcoin Moves Off Exchanges

Nearly 60% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year. That figure has climbed from 27% in 2012 and peaked at 69.5% in January 2024. That peak aligned with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.

Despite the sell-the-news reaction that followed, dormancy held near elevated levels. This trend reflects sustained conviction among long-term Bitcoin holders. Binance Research noted supply dormancy has remained near historically elevated levels since the ETF launch.

Exchange balances peaked at 17.6% during the COVID-era market. Since then, they have fallen to 15.0%, meaning roughly 500,000 BTC left exchanges.

That steady outflow has pushed exchange-held supply to a six-year low. Binance Research pointed to this as a key factor reducing available sell-side supply.

With less Bitcoin sitting on exchanges, the pool of coins ready for liquidation shrinks. This structural shift has reduced immediate selling pressure in the market. It also reflects a growing tendency among holders to move assets into self-custody.

SLRV and STH MVRV Data Indicate a Potential Cycle Shift

The SLRV ratio has fallen deep into its historical bottom zone. This reading points to low speculative activity and a pullback from short-term traders.

Long-term holders currently dominate supply, while short-term actors have largely stepped away. Binance Research noted that every prior cycle bottom coincided with the SLRV entering this zone.

According to Binance Research, this signals a period of market apathy. This dynamic has repeated across multiple Bitcoin cycles and tends to precede stabilization. The firm described it as consistent with conditions seen at prior market bottoms.

The Bitcoin STH MVRV metric remained below 1.0 for much of the period since November 2024. A reading below 1.0 means short-term holders are on average holding unrealized losses.

Over time, this condition exhausts selling pressure as those inclined to sell have exited. Binance Research described this pattern as consistent with cycle bottoms.

The STH MVRV has since reclaimed the 1.0 level, a shift in short-term holder positioning. Short-term holders are beginning to carry unrealized gains once again.

Since this profit accumulation is still early, a new wave of sell pressure is unlikely imminently. Historically, this setup has preceded periods of sustained price recovery.