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Crypto World

Bitcoin On-Chain Signals Show Supply Tightening as Sell Pressure Fades, Binance Research Reports

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Nearly 60% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, reflecting strong long-term holder conviction.
  • Exchange-held BTC has fallen to a six-year low as roughly 500,000 coins have permanently left exchanges.
  • The SLRV ratio sits deep in its historical bottom zone, signaling market apathy and low speculation.
  • BTC STH MVRV has reclaimed 1.0, marking the start of short-term holders rebuilding unrealized profits.

Bitcoin on-chain data is pointing to a notable shift in market conditions, according to Binance Research. The firm identified four key indicators suggesting that available sell-side supply may be tightening.

Exchange balances have fallen to a six-year low, while long-term holder conviction remains near historically elevated levels.

Short-term holders are also beginning to rebuild unrealized gains after months of sustained pressure. Together, these signals suggest a market that may be gradually working through exhaustion.

Supply Dormancy Climbs as Bitcoin Moves Off Exchanges

Nearly 60% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year. That figure has climbed from 27% in 2012 and peaked at 69.5% in January 2024. That peak aligned with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.

Despite the sell-the-news reaction that followed, dormancy held near elevated levels. This trend reflects sustained conviction among long-term Bitcoin holders. Binance Research noted supply dormancy has remained near historically elevated levels since the ETF launch.

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Exchange balances peaked at 17.6% during the COVID-era market. Since then, they have fallen to 15.0%, meaning roughly 500,000 BTC left exchanges.

That steady outflow has pushed exchange-held supply to a six-year low. Binance Research pointed to this as a key factor reducing available sell-side supply.

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With less Bitcoin sitting on exchanges, the pool of coins ready for liquidation shrinks. This structural shift has reduced immediate selling pressure in the market. It also reflects a growing tendency among holders to move assets into self-custody.

SLRV and STH MVRV Data Indicate a Potential Cycle Shift

The SLRV ratio has fallen deep into its historical bottom zone. This reading points to low speculative activity and a pullback from short-term traders.

Long-term holders currently dominate supply, while short-term actors have largely stepped away. Binance Research noted that every prior cycle bottom coincided with the SLRV entering this zone.

According to Binance Research, this signals a period of market apathy. This dynamic has repeated across multiple Bitcoin cycles and tends to precede stabilization. The firm described it as consistent with conditions seen at prior market bottoms.

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The Bitcoin STH MVRV metric remained below 1.0 for much of the period since November 2024. A reading below 1.0 means short-term holders are on average holding unrealized losses.

Over time, this condition exhausts selling pressure as those inclined to sell have exited. Binance Research described this pattern as consistent with cycle bottoms.

The STH MVRV has since reclaimed the 1.0 level, a shift in short-term holder positioning. Short-term holders are beginning to carry unrealized gains once again.

Since this profit accumulation is still early, a new wave of sell pressure is unlikely imminently. Historically, this setup has preceded periods of sustained price recovery.

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Aave Restores Wrapped Ether Borrowing Following Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave Restores Wrapped Ether Borrowing Following Kelp DAO Hack

Aave users are now able to borrow against wrapped Ether on the decentralized finance protocol again, as the Kelp DAO exploit recovery plan continues to progress. 

Aave founder Stani Kulechov said in an X post Sunday that the protocol restored loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for wrapped Ether (WETH) to pre-incident levels across all affected networks: Aave V3 Ethereum Core, Ethereum Prime, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea. 

“The next step in the rsETH technical recovery plan has been completed with the restoration of WETH LTVs to their pre-incident levels across all affected networks. Users can now once again borrow against WETH on Aave, including through collateral and debt swaps,” Kulechov said.

The temporary freeze on WETH was a precautionary safety measure enacted in response to the exploit, according to Aave, alongside freezes on the rsETH and wrsETH reserves. However, in a governance proposal that passed on Saturday, the protocol said that given the demonstrated progress in recovery, the freeze can be “lifted now without compromising user protection.”

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The development marks the final part of “Phase II” of the rsETH recovery plan, which also included restoring rsETH’s backing using the Ether frozen after the exploit and donated tokens from the DeFi United coalition and allowing withdrawals.

Source: Stani Kulechov

Total value locked on Aave down after Kelp exploit

Hackers believed to be linked to North Korean state-backed actors stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked Ether tokens on April 18 from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge, then used them as collateral on Aave V3 to borrow wrapped Ether, resulting in about $195 million in bad debt on Aave.

Total value locked (TVL) on Aave dropped by more than $8 billion following the exploit, according to DefiLlama. As of Monday, its TVL is about $14.8 billion, down from $23.5 billion in March.

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Tom Wan, head of data at consulting firm Entropy Advisors, which partners with the Arbitrum DAO, said that since the hack, wrapped stETH and wrapped Ether deposits have fallen.

However, there is now more unused Ether liquidity in the system, and the annualized borrowing rate has fallen to 1.9%, which he said could bring back traders interested in leveraged Ether yield strategies.

Ether utilization has dropped back below 90%. Source: Tom Wan

“ETH utilisation has dropped back below 90% with borrow APY now at 1.9%. Since the rsETH LZ hack, wstETH and weETH deposits are down $1.2B and $1.76B respectively,” Wan said.

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“With wstETH/weETH to ETH loops now back to profitable, the question is whether ETH loop demand returns or if the capital stays on the sidelines/flows to Spark/Morpho,” he added.

Kelp sunsetting rsETH bridging on some networks

Meanwhile, Kelp DAO is also in the process of its own recovery efforts. On Sunday, the protocol said it’s “consolidating our supported networks to ensure the highest security standards for rsETH based on usage and integrations,” by sunsetting rsETH bridging in select networks after June 15, including Optimism, HyperEVM, Unichain, Avalanche and MegaETH. 

Related: Aave files emergency motion to lift restraining notice on frozen ETH

After the deadline, recovery of funds will cost 100 USDC (USDC) per address, according to Kelp.

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Earlier this month, Kelp DAO migrated its restaking token, rsETH, to the Chainlink oracle platform while continuing to blame the attack on LayerZero’s cross-chain infrastructure, its previous provider. 

Magazine: The legal battle over who can claim DeFi’s stolen millions

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Grayscale, VanEck amend US spot BNB ETF filings, nearing launch

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Crypto Breaking News

US asset managers Grayscale and VanEck are edging closer to a potential US spot BNB ETF breakthrough, filing amended S-1 registration statements for their proposed products. The updates signal ongoing regulatory dialogue and a concerted effort to align with the SEC’s requirements as both firms position GBNB and VBNB for potential approval.

Grayscale submitted its second amendment to the S-1, while VanEck filed its fifth amendment on Friday. S-1s remain one of the core filings ETF issuers use to seek SEC clearance, detailing fund structure, management fees, strategies and risk disclosures. The repeated amendments suggest the issuers are incorporating feedback from regulators in hopes of bringing a BNB spot ETF to market in a near-term timeframe.

According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, “Another amended S-1 from [Grayscale] on the BNB ETF… have to guess they are going off feedback from SEC and trying to launch in near future? Could be the next crypto asset to get a spot ETF in the US.”

BNB remains a heavyweight in the crypto market, ranking as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap at roughly $87.4 billion, yet it has not secured a place in the expanding roster of US spot ETFs tracking altcoins such as Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), XRP and Hyperliquid (HYPE).

The public filings for GBNB and VBNB come with broader context: Grayscale filed for GBNB on Jan. 23, 2026, and has not disclosed a management fee for the product. VanEck’s initial filing for VBNB traces back to May 2025, with the firm proposing a 0.39% management fee for the fund.

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Key takeaways

  • Grayscale and VanEck have submitted amended S-1 filings for GBNB and VBNB, signaling continued SEC engagement and a potential near-term launch path for a US spot BNB ETF.
  • BNB’s market position remains outsized (about $87.4B), but the token is not yet part of the US spot ETF lineup, which currently includes other major altcoins.
  • The US ETF landscape for crypto has grown under a generic listing standards framework introduced by the SEC, expanding altcoin ETF options beyond a case-by-case review model.
  • Recent spot altcoin ETFs have had uneven debuts: Hyperliquid (HYPE) netted about $1.2 million on opening day, far below some earlier launches.
  • Overall inflows continue to favor Bitcoin and Ether, while Solana-related products have begun reaching meaningful asset bases, signaling broader diversification in crypto ETF exposure.

BNB’s place in a shifting ETF landscape

The broader shift in the SEC’s approval process matters because it outlines an easier path for new crypto ETFs to gain listing and trading approval. Since September, the agency has moved toward a generic listing standards approach, replacing the prior, more manual case-by-case reviews. For investors, that could translate into clearer timelines and more predictability for launches of altcoin-focused ETFs, including BNB.

Asset managers on Wall Street have continued to test diverse ETF architectures in crypto, from staked products and leveraged strategies to futures-linked structures and multi-asset index funds. The evolving framework is helping issuers consider a wider array of potential products as crypto markets mature and demand for regulated access remains robust among institutional and retail investors alike.

Early performance signals and what they imply for adoption

Despite the regulatory tailwinds, the most recent batch of spot altcoin ETFs has not sparked the same immediacy of demand seen with some earlier launches. The Hyperliquid ETF, issued by 21Shares, reported opening-day net inflows of about $1.2 million — a modest start compared with peers in the space. In contrast, other new entrants have drawn much larger first-day tickets: the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF reported roughly $69.5 million on its debut in October, while the XRP-focused ETF pulled in about $245 million within a few weeks of launch.

Still, inflows to crypto ETFs overall remain heavily skewed toward the largest assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum products have accumulated approximately $58.4 billion and $11.8 billion, respectively, since 2024, underscoring where most investor appetite remains concentrated. Within this broader trend, US Solana-based ETFs have begun to surpass $1 billion in total net assets, currently standing around $1.11 billion, suggesting growing diversification of crypto exposure beyond BTC and ETH.

The picture suggests a nuanced landscape: while the SEC’s generic listing standards have helped unlock more potential products and foster competition among issuers, investor demand for new altcoin ETFs remains uneven. The path for GBNB and VBNB will hinge on how effectively the issuers address disclosure, liquidity, tracking accuracy and risk management in the eyes of regulators and investors alike.

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As these amendments move through the review process, stakeholders will be watching for concrete milestones—whether the SEC schedules a vote, sets conditions, or approves the listings with specific requirements. For traders and fund managers, the evolving regime could offer fresh hedging and exposure tools, while for users and developers, it signals a broader acceptance of regulated crypto market access.

Readers should monitor further filings and any updates from Grayscale and VanEck as the SEC responds to the latest rounds of amendments, alongside ongoing market data showing how altcoin ETFs perform on their own merit once they reach the market.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Analysts Debate ‘Sell in May’ Pattern

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Bitcoin Analysts Debate ‘Sell in May’ Pattern

Crypto analysts are divided over whether markets will see a major Bitcoin sell-off in May, a pattern that has emerged in the last two bear markets during US mid-term election years. 

In May 2018, Bitcoin crashed from nearly $10,000 to about $7,000 by the end of the month. It happened again in May 2022, when Bitcoin fell nearly 30% from about $40,000 to $28,500 before falling further in June to $20,000. 

With 2026 also a bear market year coinciding with a US mid-term election, there are concerns it could happen again. 

“The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history. Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect. Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time,” crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar said on Sunday.

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Enkelaar said a similar move could see Bitcoin prices collapse to $33,000 despite the advancement of key legislation, the CLARITY Act, positive crypto sentiment from the Trump administration and potential trade deals between the US and China.

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, also said Sunday that there would be a higher probability of a new capitulation phase if Bitcoin remains under $78,000, with bears “showing signs of strength.”

Bitcoin was trading at about $76,900 at the time of writing, down 5.6% over the past seven days.

The calendar didn’t cause previous crashes, analyst argues

Jeff Ko, chief analyst at the CoinEx exchange, told Cointelegraph on Monday that midterm election years have coincided with major Bitcoin bear markets, “so some traders may be tempted to frame 2026 as another ‘sell in May’ setup.” 

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However, behind that historical seasonality were more concrete macro drivers, such as the Mt. Gox aftermath, China’s ICO crackdown, Fed tightening and the Terra/FTX collapses, he said.

“The calendar didn’t cause those drawdowns — specific shocks did.” 

Related: Bitcoin slides below $79K on macro fears: Can fixed-income outflows save it?

Ko said he doesn’t expect BTC to repeat the 70% to 80% drawdowns seen in past cycles because the market structure has fundamentally changed.

“Spot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption, and the CLARITY Act moving through Congress have meaningfully broadened and institutionalized the buyer base compared with past cycles,” he added. 

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“In my view, a move toward the mid-$60k or high-$50k range could be defensible under a macro shock or a significant ETF outflow cascade. But a move back to $33k would likely require something genuinely systemic to break, rather than simply a repeat of historical seasonality.”

Key support level must hold 

MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe was also bullish, saying on X Sunday that the current Bitcoin price action “doesn’t shout for new lows” but is “consolidating after a run of 40%.”

However, an important support level that is currently preventing a larger decline is the $76,000 area, he cautioned. 

“If that level is lost, I would assume that the markets will see a further downward fall towards lower boundaries,” he said.

Trader eyes key support level that must hold. Source: Michaël van de Poppe

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What’s Dragging Ethereum Down? BitMine’s Tom Lee Has an Answer

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Ethereum (ETH) Price Performance

Ethereum (ETH) has erased all its May gains, dropping nearly 10% in the past week. 

The second-largest cryptocurrency hit an intraday low of $2,097 on Binance on Sunday, its lowest level since April 7. At press time, the asset traded at $2,116.82, down 2.88% over the past day.

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Ethereum (ETH) Price Performance
Ethereum (ETH) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets 

But what’s behind this slump? BitMine chairman Tom Lee points to oil.

Oil Becomes Ethereum’s Biggest Headwind

In a post on X, Lee said Ethereum’s inverse correlation to oil hit its highest level on record. He described the move in crude as the dominant force pressuring ETH in recent weeks.

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“If one is wondering why Ethereum ETH has been under selling pressure: To me, rising oil prices is the biggest headwind. ETH inverse correlation to oil is the highest ever,” he said.

Ethereum Oil Correlation
Ethereum Oil Correlation. Source: X/Tom Lee

Meanwhile, Brent crude traded near $111 per barrel on Monday, up roughly 16.4% over the past month. The rally reflects ongoing US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Lee argued an oil reversal would unlock ETH’s recovery. Despite the recent weakness, the executive called this “short-term tactical noise.” He mentioned that the structural drivers behind ETH remain firmly in place.

The Fundstrat co-founder highlighted tokenization and agentic AI as the bigger forces shaping Ethereum’s trajectory through 2026.

These factors have featured in his prior ETH forecasts. Earlier this month, he projected that ETH could reach $9,000 to $12,000 by year-end.

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HYPE pops 7%, beating bitcoin declines, as SpaceX pre-IPO lands on Hyperliquid

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Musk’s SpaceX holds $603 million in bitcoin despite $5 billion loss stemming from xAI


Hyperliquid’s HYPE token rallied 7% over 24 hours after Trade.xyz launched the first pre-IPO perpetual market on the platform, offering synthetic exposure to SpaceX at a reference valuation of $1.78 trillion.

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Verus-Ethereum Bridge Exploit Drains $11.58M in Ongoing Attack

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Blockaid’s exploit detection system identified an active attack draining $11.58M from the Verus-Ethereum bridge.
  • Peckshield confirmed 103.6 tBTC, 1,625 ETH, and 147,000 USDC were stolen and swapped for 5,402 ETH.
  • GoPlus found the attacker used a low-value transaction to trigger a batch-transfer of all bridge reserves.
  • The attacker’s wallet was pre-funded with 1 ETH via Tornado Cash roughly 14 hours before the exploit began.

The Verus-Ethereum bridge is under an active exploit that has drained approximately $11.58 million in digital assets. Blockchain security firm Blockaid identified the attack through its exploit detection system on Sunday.

The stolen funds included tBTC, ETH, and USDC. The attacker subsequently converted those assets into ETH. Multiple security companies have since confirmed the breach and traced the attacker’s on-chain activity.

How the Attack Unfolded

Blockaid was among the first to publicly flag the exploit. The firm identified the attacker’s externally owned account as address “0x5aBb91B9c01A5Ed3aE762d32B236595B459D5777.” The drained funds were moved to a separate wallet at “0x65Cb8b128Bf6e690761044CCECA422bb239C25F9.”

Peckshield provided a detailed breakdown of what was taken from the bridge. According to the firm, the attacker drained 103.6 tBTC, 1,625 ETH, and 147,000 USDC from the protocol. Those assets were then swapped for roughly 5,402 ETH, valued at around $11.4 million at the time.

Another security firm, GoPlus, shed light on the method used in the attack. The attacker sent a low-value transaction to the bridge contract and called a specific function. That function triggered the bridge contract to batch-transfer its reserve assets directly to the drainer’s wallet.

The exploit transaction has been publicly logged on Etherscan, providing a transparent on-chain record. The bridge contract address involved is “0x71518580f36feceffe0721f06ba4703218cd7f63.” Security researchers continue to monitor the addresses involved for further movement.

Attacker’s Funding Trail Points to Tornado Cash

Peckshield also traced how the attacker initially funded their wallet before carrying out the exploit. The attacker’s address received 1 ETH through Tornado Cash approximately 14 hours before the attack began. Tornado Cash is a crypto mixer commonly used to obscure the origin of funds on-chain.

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This funding method is a recognized pattern among on-chain bad actors seeking to hide their identity. By routing startup funds through a mixer, the attacker made it harder to link the exploit wallet to any prior history. Investigators typically watch for such patterns when tracing the source of stolen assets.

At the time of writing, the stolen funds remain in the drainer wallet identified by Blockaid. No confirmed recovery measures or protocol pause announcements had been publicly issued by the Verus team. The broader DeFi community has been alerted to avoid interacting with the bridge in the meantime.

The attack adds to a long list of bridge exploits that have plagued the crypto industry in recent years. Cross-chain bridges remain a high-value target due to the large reserves they hold and the complexity of their smart contract logic.

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Stellar Price Prediction Turns Bullish as XLM Eyes Breakout Toward $0.68

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • XLM trades at $0.1517 and has posted a -11.55% weekly decline in pressure.
  • Market structure remains intact as consolidation continues after the prior macro breakout phase.
  • Stellar TVL climbs to $191.6M, supported by tokenization and institutional ecosystem growth.
  • A breakout above resistance could reprice XLM toward $0.681 within a broader bullish structure setup.

Stellar (XLM) trades at $0.1517 as of this writing with $65.38M in daily volume, slipping 0.05% in 24 hours and extending a 11.55% weekly decline.

Despite short-term weakness, Stellar’s broader structure, consolidation, rising ecosystem activity, and expanding TVL are shaping a longer-term breakout narrative toward higher liquidity zones.

Market Structure Keeps Stellar Price Prediction in Focus

Stellar continues to trade within a prolonged consolidation phase after its late-2024 expansion wave. Price action near $0.15 reflects a controlled pullback rather than a structural breakdown.

The asset previously broke a multi-year descending trendline from its 2021 peak. Since that breakout, the structure has leaned toward reaccumulation rather than distribution.

Market behavior shows repeated impulse moves followed by compressed corrections. This pattern often appears in continuation phases where momentum resets before expansion resumes.

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Volatility has narrowed significantly across recent sessions. Selling pressure has also softened, with no strong capitulation signals appearing in recent market data.

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From a technical standpoint, Stellar remains aligned with a bullish continuation scenario as long as higher lows persist. The descending resistance zone remains the key barrier limiting upside acceleration.

A clean breakout above this structure would shift attention toward the $0.681 liquidity region. That level aligns with historical resistance and could act as a magnet for momentum flows.

TVL Expansion Reinforces Stellar Price Prediction Outlook

Beyond price charts, Stellar’s on-chain ecosystem has expanded meaningfully over the past year. Total value locked has climbed to $191.6 million, according to DefiLlama data.

This marks a significant rise from sub-$10 million levels recorded in early 2024. The expansion reflects consistent capital inflows into network applications.

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Stellar’s distributed asset value has also surpassed $2 billion. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries and bond products form a major part of this growth.

The network’s shift toward real-world asset tokenization has strengthened its institutional profile. This transition continues to attract structured capital rather than speculative flows.

Protocol upgrades have supported this shift. The Soroban smart contract layer and Protocol 25 improvements expanded scalability and functionality across the ecosystem.

Institutional integrations, including participation from Franklin Templeton and Amundi, have reinforced long-term adoption trends. These developments have expanded use cases beyond payments into broader financial infrastructure.

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A researcher commented on X: “Stellar’s ecosystem expansion is accelerating even as price consolidates within a tight range.”

Within this environment, Stellar remains tied to structural conditions rather than short-term volatility. A breakout above $0.681 would place the next macro extension near $1.29 into focus.

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Yet another crypto bridge falls victim to an $11 million hack

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Russia-linked Grinex exchange halts operations after $13 million ‘state-backed’ hack


The latest attack adds to growing string of cross-chain infrastructure exploits.

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Bitcoin slides under $77,000 as oil shock and Treasury yields hit risk assets

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Bitcoin slides under $77,000 as oil shock and Treasury yields hit risk assets


Long-term holders are still sitting tight and exchange balances remain near six-year lows, Binance Research data shows, but underwater short-term holders leave BTC vulnerable to macro shocks.

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May’s DeFi Hack Tally Grows as Verus Bridge Reportedly Loses $11.58 Million

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May’s DeFi Hack Tally Grows as Verus Bridge Reportedly Loses $11.58 Million

The tally of decentralized finance (DeFi) exploits in May continued to climb after the Verus-Ethereum Bridge reportedly suffered a security breach, with attackers draining roughly $11.58 million in digital assets.

Multiple blockchain security firms flagged the exploit on Monday, warning users about suspicious activity linked to the bridge.

Verus-Ethereum Bridge Reportedly Drained for $11.58 Million in May Exploit

Blockchain security company Blockaid flagged the exploit in a post on X.  Security researchers identified the attacker’s externally owned account (EOA) as 0x5aBb91B9c01A5Ed3aE762d32B236595B459D5777.

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Blockchain security platform PeckShield said the attacker drained approximately 103.6 tBTC, 1,625 ETH, and 147,000 USDC from the bridge. Moreover, the stolen assets were swapped into 5,402.4 ETH, valued at around $11.4 million. The funds remain in the wallet: 0x65Cb8b128Bf6e690761044CCECA422bb239C25F9.

“The attacker’s address was initially funded with 1 ETH via Tornado Cash ~14 hours ago,” the post read.

Meanwhile, the Verus loss arrives three days after THORChain halted trading. A breach of one vault reportedly drained over $10 million in protocol-owned funds. THORChain said user balances were not affected.

“THORChain contributors are still actively investigating the recent incident alongside THORSec and external security partners. More information will be shared as the investigation progresses,” the team said.

DeFiLlama data shows that 12 DeFi protocols were hit in May 2026 before Verus. Collective losses already top $20 million this month.

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April 2026 set the year’s benchmark, with protocols losing more than $606 million across 12 incidents. The KelpDAO bridge drain alone accounted for $292 million, making it 2026’s largest single hack.

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