Kalshi has introduced mandatory employer disclosures for certain traders and expanded its market surveillance program after reporting more than 150 investigations, over 100 blocked insider-trading attempts, and 20 law-enforcement referrals during the first quarter of 2026.

According to a company blog post published Tuesday, the prediction market platform has put several new compliance measures into effect immediately following recommendations from its independent Surveillance Audit Committee, which was established in February to oversee market integrity and enforcement efforts.

Among the changes, Kalshi said every proposed market will now receive a risk score before launch. The assessment considers factors such as regulatory compliance, insider-trading exposure, market significance, and national security concerns.

Bobby DeNault, Kalshi’s enforcement and legal counsel, said the company has added national security reviews to help identify markets that could create risks for participants or for the platform itself before they are listed.

For markets considered more vulnerable to insider trading or manipulation, Kalshi now requires participants to disclose their employers before they can trade. The company said the process allows it to identify potential insiders and restrict access before transactions take place.

Additional tools introduced under the program include a whistleblower reporting system that lets users flag suspected market abuse directly to the company.

Prediction markets face mounting scrutiny

Recent enforcement actions have placed prediction markets under growing examination from regulators, lawmakers, and law enforcement agencies.

Earlier this month, NPR reported that the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission were investigating former U.S. Representative George Santos after Kalshi detected suspicious trading linked to a contract on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s February State of the Union address. According to NPR, the platform froze Santos’ account and referred the matter to authorities after reviewing the trades.

Separate cases have emerged across the sector. Federal prosecutors charged a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier in April for allegedly using classified information to place profitable trades on Polymarket tied to the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

A month later, authorities accused Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo of using confidential company information to trade Google-related contracts on Polymarket. Prosecutors alleged the activity generated roughly $1.2 million in profits.

Congress has also examined insider-trading controls within prediction markets. In May, House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman James Comer requested information from Kalshi and Polymarket regarding their monitoring systems and enforcement procedures.

Compliance push comes as business expands

Recent compliance initiatives arrive during a period of rapid growth for Kalshi.

Just one day before the latest announcement, the Better Business Bureau’s National Advertising Division said it had referred Kalshi to regulatory authorities after the company declined to participate in a review of influencer advertising disclosures. 

The organization said it was examining whether financial relationships between the platform and online promoters were clearly disclosed and whether advertising practices aligned with Federal Trade Commission guidance.

At the same time, Kalshi has continued expanding its cryptocurrency offerings. The company recently filed with the CFTC to list perpetual futures tied to Hyperliquid’s HYPE token after launching Ethereum perpetual futures under its American Perpetuals product line.

Bitcoin BTC$61,287.09 spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have fallen out of investor favor and how.

Total dollar value of net assets across the 11 spot ETFs stood at $77.58 billion on June 9. That’s the same level seen just after President Donald Trump won the presidential election in early November 2024.

This is not to say the ETFs didn’t grow in the 19-month period. Hopes that Trump would deliver on his campaign promise of friendlier crypto regulation helped push bitcoin higher, along with ETF assets. Total net assets crossed $90 billion within a week of this election win and went on to hit a record high of $169.54 billion in October 2025.

But since then, these post-election gains have been erased even though the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), under the Trump administration, dropped several high-profile enforcement actions. The U.S. has established a strategic bitcoin reserve and, further, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which seeks to establish jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC and give the industry the legal heft, is advancing in Washington.

In other words, the regulatory environment has never been more favorable, yet investors’ response has been to leave, pulling the net assets lower.

These ETFs have registered a net outflow of over $5 billion in four weeks. Cumulative net inflows since inception, which peaked at $62.77 billion in October 2025 when bitcoin was at its all-time high, have since declined by nearly $9 billion to $53.77 billion, the lowest since August last year.

Analysts blame macro factors, especially elevated inflation, for recent outflows from the ETFs.

“ETF outflows reflected short-term pressure as inflation drives the Fed hawkish, while on-chain supply tightening remains intact,” Binance Research said in a report shared with CoinDesk.

Market analyst and former co-founder of 21Shares, Ophelia Snyder, said AI and other trending corners of the financial market are draining capital from crypto.

“You have ETF outflows as investors are increasingly distracted by other narratives competing for attention and capital, whether that’s AI, SpaceX, or other high-profile growth stories. You have ongoing market jitters around geopolitics, the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. jobs data, inflation, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty,” she said in an email.

Prediction market regulators should consider a measured approach to insider trading enforcement as opposed to an outright ban, according to research from an academic at the Stevens Institute of Technology.

In a paper released on June 2, assistant professor of finance Balbinder Singh Gill developed a formal economic model to answer the question of how strictly insider trading in prediction markets should be policed.

A paradox exists in that “the same insider trade that improves the accuracy of the price today can reduce the participation that makes the price informative tomorrow,” he said. 

The model showed that prediction market price accuracy is “hump-shaped” in enforcement intensity, with too little enforcement letting insiders crowd out participants, while too much enforcement removes the insider’s genuine informational contribution.

“Tougher enforcement curbs the insider, raising participation, so accuracy is hump-shaped and optimal enforcement is interior, neither laissez-faire nor a ban,” he said.

Insider trading has been a persistent problem for prediction markets, with regulators pushing for crackdowns or banning platforms outright.

The CFTC’s chief enforcement director warned prediction market insider traders in April that violators would face enforcement action. In May, US House lawmakers launched a probe into Kalshi and Polymarket over insider trading. 

Different levels of enforcement needed

Singh Gill argued that the level of enforcement should be determined by where the insider information comes from.

Researched information where a trader has worked hard to learn something should have the least, or no enforcement, adding that any crackdown on this level discourages valuable information production.

Related: US House lawmakers launch probe into Kalshi, Polymarket insider trading

Misappropriated information, such as leaked data or classified information, which would be considered insider information, should have a higher level of enforcement.

Meanwhile, cases where the insider can influence the outcome, such as a political candidate betting on their own campaign, should have the most enforcement.

“Trading on a genuine, independently researched edge is the activity society should be most reluctant to punish […] And trading by those who can move the outcome warrants the stiffest enforcement, because their positions invite manipulation.” 

Enforcement in a prediction market should be “calibrated rather than maximal,” he concluded. 

Balanced enforcement provides optimal welfare. Source: Balbinder Singh Gill

Kalshi to check user employment details 

The paper came as Kalshi is introducing new measures to combat insider trading by requiring users in some sensitive markets to disclose employment information. 

Users betting in sensitive markets, such as company performance or national security, will need to disclose their employer via an online form. It has also developed a “specific risk score” assigned to markets with heightened insider trading or manipulation risk.

The changes follow an audit committee report recommending better data collection and pressure from lawmakers and regulators.

Two recent high-profile insider trading cases involving competitor Polymarket were flagged and also referenced in Singh Gill’s paper. 

A Google employee was charged in May with using insider information about the company’s search trends to make $1.2 million on Polymarket, and a US soldier was charged in April with trading on classified knowledge of a military operation.

Magazine: Vietnam preps crypto pilot, HK pushes tokenization: Asia Express

XRP keeps finding buyers near major support, but it keeps losing support anyway. The latest drop pushed the token back toward the same $1.10 area that several analysts had flagged as a key line in the sand, with selling pressure accelerating once $1.13 gave way.

News Background

• Several analysts pointed to the $1.09 area as a major Fibonacci support level that XRP had been approaching for months.

• XRP remains trapped below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, underscoring the broader bearish trend despite periodic relief rallies.

• Trading activity surged during the selloff before quickly normalizing, suggesting a large repositioning event rather than a steady increase in bearish conviction.

Price Action Summary

• XRP fell from $1.1505 to $1.1248 during the 24-hour session, losing more than 4%.

• The breakdown accelerated after price lost support near $1.13, with volume surging to 109.9 million XRP, more than double the daily average.

• XRP later tested support near $1.1240 before stabilizing into the close as selling momentum began to fade.

Technical Analysis

• The most important development was the loss of $1.13 support, which now becomes the first resistance level on any recovery attempt.

• Volume confirmed the move. The selloff occurred on some of the strongest activity seen in months, suggesting active liquidation and repositioning rather than passive weakness.

• At the same time, momentum indicators are nearing oversold territory. Daily RSI readings have fallen close to levels that historically preceded at least short-term relief rallies.

• The broader structure remains bearish. XRP continues trading inside a descending channel and below every major trend indicator that longer-term traders monitor.

What traders should watch

• $1.10-$1.12 is now the key support zone. A decisive break lower would increase the risk of a move toward $1.00 and potentially the $0.80-$0.90 region.

• $1.13 is the first level bulls need to reclaim to ease immediate downside pressure.

• Beyond that, attention shifts to $1.20 and then the larger $1.35-$1.40 resistance zone where previous recovery attempts failed.

• The setup is becoming increasingly compressed. Either buyers finally defend the current support area with conviction, or XRP risks turning a difficult correction into a much larger breakdown.

TLDR:

• XRP inflows to Binance from wallets holding over 1M tokens have declined sharply since the 2025 peak.
• On-chain data shows no extraordinary inflow spike, ruling out aggressive whale selling or profit-taking now.
• The current XRP price drop is tied to leverage liquidations and broad market weakness, not whale distribution.
• If Binance inflows stay low and demand holds, XRP could realistically revisit the $1.8 to $2.0 price range.

XRP exchange inflows to Binance have declined notably following the 2025 market peak, and on-chain data now points to reduced selling activity among large holders.

Transfers exceeding one million XRP dominated exchange inflow charts between 2021 and 2025, reflecting consistent participation from whale and institutional-scale addresses.

The recent pullback in these flows, despite a price retreat from the $3 region, suggests that major market participants are becoming less inclined to sell.

Whale Activity Shifts as Large-Scale XRP Transfers to Binance Drop

Historically, sharp spikes in the 100K–1M XRP and 1M+ XRP inflow categories have preceded major market downturns.

These surges typically signal that large holders are moving assets to exchanges ahead of selling. However, no such extraordinary spike currently appears at the far right of the inflow chart. This absence is a meaningful contrast to prior bear market conditions.

CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA noted that the post-ETF approval period coincides with this drop in whale inflows. The reduced exchange activity suggests whales may be holding positions rather than distributing.

That behavioral shift stands out, especially given XRP’s recent price correction. It points to a market structure that differs from previous cycles.

The current price decline appears linked more to leverage liquidations and broader market weakness than to deliberate whale selling. In past severe downturns, exchange inflows rose aggressively as investors rushed to exit positions.

That pattern is not repeating now. The on-chain picture, therefore, does not support the narrative of widespread profit-taking at this stage.

Between 2021 and 2025, large-scale inflows remained consistently elevated, showing that whales actively used Binance as a distribution venue. The recent reversal of that trend is therefore notable.

It reflects a measurable change in behavior among the market’s largest participants. Whether this shift sustains depends on whether inflows stay suppressed in the weeks ahead.

Subdued Binance Inflows Could Reduce Selling Supply and Support XRP Price

PelinayPA stated in the analysis: “If Binance inflows remain subdued, the available selling supply could continue to decrease. Combined with stronger demand, this would make it easier for XRP to revisit the $1.8–$2.0 range.”

That projection rests on the assumption that the current low-inflow environment holds. Any renewed surge in the 1M+ XRP category would challenge that outlook.

XRP’s price stood at $1.11 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1,754,706,743. The asset recorded a 5.12% decline over the past 24 hours and an 8.28% drop over the prior seven days. Despite these figures, the on-chain data does not yet reflect panic-driven selling from major holders.

Reduced exchange supply, when paired with sustained or growing demand, typically creates favorable conditions for price recovery.

The $1.8–$2.0 range cited in the analysis represents a plausible near-term target if inflows remain low. However, this structure remains sensitive to any sharp reversal in whale behavior. Traders and analysts will likely continue monitoring inflow trends closely.

As long as no renewed surge emerges in the 1M+ XRP inflow category, the current market structure may remain constructive. The broader market environment will also play a role in whether that structure holds.

For now, the declining inflow trend offers a data-backed case for cautious optimism. The next few weeks will clarify whether whales maintain their current stance.