A developing El Nino that is forecast to get quite strong will likely dampen the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, but it won’t make the potentially deadly storms disappear, federal and outside meteorologists predict.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday issued its seasonal outlook for the Atlantic, giving a 55% chance of a below-average season. The agency forecasts eight to 14 named storms, with three to six of them becoming strong enough to hit hurricane status and one to three of those intensifying to major hurricanes.
A normal hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven of them becoming hurricanes and three of them reaching major hurricane level, which is more than 110 mph (177 kph).
Eighteen other groups, private and academic, have also forecast what they think the season will be like and most of them also call for a below average summer and fall. Those other forecasts average a dozen named storms, only five becoming hurricanes and two of those being major ones. Those forecasts also call for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, which takes into account strength and duration of storms, to be 80% of normal.
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Residents walk through Santa Cruz, Jamaica, Oct. 29, 2025, after Hurricane Melissa passed. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix, File)
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Residents walk through Santa Cruz, Jamaica, Oct. 29, 2025, after Hurricane Melissa passed. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix, File)
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Colorado State University, which pioneered the science of hurricane seasonal forecasting in 1984, is predicting the lowest overall activity since 2015, which was the strongest El Nino in the last 75 years. And that forecast is likely to be revised to even lower numbers in June, said Colorado State’s hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach.
This is after nine of the last 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal or even hyperactive, Klotzbach said. Last year started slow, but then had a burst, producing a near-record total of three Category 5 hurricanes, including Melissa which devastated Jamaica and Cuba, said Suzana Camargo, a climate scientist and tropical weather expert at Columbia University.
Inflation-adjusted damage across the globe from tropical cyclones has increased from an average of $11.4 billion a year in the 1980s to $109.7 billion a year over the past 10 years, with three-quarters of the damage done in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, according to insurance giant Munich Re.
Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are the same weather event, with the different names being used in different parts of the world.
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“We should expect a less active year than certainly what we’ve seen recently, and perhaps significantly so below average,” said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. “But again, it only takes one to cause real devastation and destruction in the mainland U.S. or even in Hawaii.”
El Nino decapitates Atlantic storms
People bike past damaged homes and debris left by Hurricane Milton, on the sand-coated main road of southern Manasota Key, already cleared of feet of sand, in Englewood, Fla., Oct. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
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People bike past damaged homes and debris left by Hurricane Milton, on the sand-coated main road of southern Manasota Key, already cleared of feet of sand, in Englewood, Fla., Oct. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
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It’s mostly because of “the elephant in the room” which is an El Nino, Camargo said.
An El Nino is the natural and cyclic warming of parts of the central Pacific that warps weather patterns around the globe, especially during winter. Scientists for decades have found a correlation between an El Nino and below average Atlantic hurricane activity and stronger and more storms in the central and eastern Pacific. This year many forecasts are calling for a strong, superstrong or even record setting intense El Nino. During a La Nina, the cool flip side of El Nino, the Atlantic is generally busier with stronger storms.
There’s a 98% chance that there will be an El Nino this summer and an 80% chance it will be moderate or strong, NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said Thursday.
Atlantic hurricane seasons when an El Nino reaches strong or very strong status have two-thirds the named storms and half the hurricanes of the 1991-2020 average, according to an Associated Press analysis of storm and El Nino statistics.
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El Ninos fight Atlantic storm formation in several ways, especially with cross winds about 1 mile to 7 miles (1.5 to 11 kilometers) above the surface “which can basically blow apart the thunderstorms that make up” a hurricane, Corbosiero said.
“A stronger than normal wind shear tends to tilt storms as they try to develop,” said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Brian Tang. “It pushes dry air into storms. And prevents storms from developing in the first place. And if they do develop, it also prevents them from intensifying.”
El Nino reduces the number and intensity of weaker storms, but once a storm hits hurricane status with 74 mph winds, “they can be kind of like a self-feeding entity” and are less prone to being dampened by El Nino’s wind shear, said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Forecasts for peak hurricane season show strong wind shear from the west in the main development region for the largest and long-lasting hurricanes that come off of Africa and develop as they head west over the Atlantic, Klotzbach said. Fewer of these type storms happen during El Ninos.
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In the 15 strongest El Nino years since 1950, 37 named storms, 11 hurricanes and three major hurricanes made landfall on the continental United States, but in the 15 coldest La Nina years 61 named storms, 31 hurricanes and 10 major hurricanes hit America’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts, according to Klotzbach. He said El Nino shrinks the number of hits on the Atlantic coast, but has less of an influence on the number of Gulf coast landfalls.
In addition to El Nino, dry conditions in Africa and water in the Atlantic being only slightly warmer than normal contribute to the forecast of a weaker season, Rosencrans said.
Opposite effect in the Pacific
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Cars are seen stuck in the mud following Tropical Storm Hilary on a street Aug. 21, 2023, in Cathedral City, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)
Cars are seen stuck in the mud following Tropical Storm Hilary on a street Aug. 21, 2023, in Cathedral City, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)
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El Ninos and La Ninas have the opposite effect on storms in the central and eastern Pacific as they do in the Atlantic, so experts are expecting a busier season in those regions. Jacobs said there’s a 70% chance that the eastern Pacific will have an above normal season.
NOAA forecasts 15 to 22 named storms in the Pacific with nine to 14 becoming hurricanes and five to nine of those being major hurricanes. Average is 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Rosencrans said the main area of central Pacific storm development shifts closer to Hawaii during El Ninos.
Eastern Pacific storms near Baja Mexico tend to “go west, affect the fishies and little else,” Corbosiero said. But at times they can turn east or north and cause massive damage as in Hurricane Otis in 2023 that smashed into Mexico, or 1992’s Hurricane Lester, which caused heavy rains in the U.S. Southwest, she said.
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Hawaii is a small island chain in a big ocean that can be threatened. In 1992, an El Nino year when there were few Atlantic storms (though Miami was devastated by Hurricane Andrew ), Hawaii was hit by Hurricane Iniki.
A woman and child crosses a flooded street due to Typhoon Fung-wong and high tide on Nov. 10, 2025, in Navotas, Philippines. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)
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A woman and child crosses a flooded street due to Typhoon Fung-wong and high tide on Nov. 10, 2025, in Navotas, Philippines. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila, File)
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Further west toward Asia and India, “your odds of any storm forming becoming a super typhoon go up significantly in El Nino,” Klotzbach said.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season started May 15 and the Atlantic season begins June 1 and both end November 30.
El Ninos can also make hurricane season longer, said John Bravender, a weather service meteorologist in Honolulu. “With the warmer waters across the area, not only can hurricanes maintain their strength at higher latitudes, but also longer through the year,” he said.
The state is preparing for hurricanes just as parts of Hawaii are still reeling from recent back-to-back storms that caused catastrophic flooding, Gov. Josh Green said.
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Associated Press writer Jennifer Sinco Kelleher in Honolulu contributed to this report.
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Rivals fans may be a little impatient for season two to resume after its current break (it looks like we’ll have to wait months to see what happens next in the Disney+ show).
But at least we can console ourselves with the bigger picture: today, Disney confirmed the show’s on for a third season.
In a press release, Lee Mason, vice-president of scripted at Disney+ Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), commented: “The phenomenal response to Rivals is a credit to the bold, irreverent and endlessly entertaining world created by Dame Jilly Cooper, our cast, creative team and production partners at Happy Prince.”
The same release explained that the first six episodes of Rivals SE2 marked Disney+’s biggest EMEA original premiere of 2026.
“We’re delighted to be bringing audiences a third season on Disney+/Hulu. Expect more ambition, more romance, more rivalries and, of course, more scandal as we return to Rutshire for another irresistible chapter,” Mason added.
Dominic Treadwell-Collins, the chief creative officer of Happy Prince and Alexander Lamb, added: “We’ve been delighted and overwhelmed by the audience’s response to season two of Rivals – testament to the hard work from everyone working on Rivals both on and off screen.
“But she’s still very much with us in sprit and would be so delighted that season three has been green lit. We’re so thrilled to continue to work with Disney as we dive deeper into the Rutshire Chronicles and expand the Cooperverse even further.”
Season three will be produced by Dominic Treadwell-Collins, who also worked on A Very English Scandal; Alexander Lamb, who’s produced Ackley Bridge and EastEnders; Olivier Award-winning playwright Laura Wade of The Riot Club; and Jilly Cooper’s former agent, Felicity Blunt.
Croatia boss Zlatko Dalic has warned England his side will not ‘just defend’ in their World Cup opener. The two teams come together in Dallas on Wednesday evening to get their group campaigns underway.
The 59-year-old said: “A tough match awaits us, the start of the World Cup, and the toughest opponent possible. We’ve prepared well, and I’d be happy if we show that tomorrow.
“England is an important match, but not a decisive one. We know their quality — they are dangerous, especially down the wings, and they have one of the best strikers in the world. We will give our best, we won’t just defend, we want more. That’s how we prepared.”
Zlatko Dalic has spoken ahead of Croatia’s clash with England(Image: Getty Images)
A 28-year-old man from Dublin has appeared in court charged with causing death by dangerous driving
13:55, 17 Jun 2026Updated 14:01, 17 Jun 2026
A man has been charged in connection with a fatal collision which happened over a year ago. Lydia La Polla died after being involved in a collision in Wrexham in March 2025.
In a tribute following her death the 47-year-old’s family said she had a “heart of gold” and was “always there for others”. Now North Wales Police say a 28-year-old man has been charged in connection with the fatal crash.
Michael Connors, of Landen Road, Ballyfermot, Dublin, is charged with causing death by dangerous driving and two counts of causing serious injury by dangerous driving. He was extradited to the UK after being arrested by the Garda in Dublin.
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The crash happened shortly after 9.30pm on March 24, 2025, between Belgrave Road and Percy Road as a silver Mercedes car was involved in a police chase before colliding with a Toyota car. Two men, the driver and a passenger of the silver Mercedes, left the scene of the collision.
Ms La Polla, from Wrexham, was driving the Toyota car. She died from her injuries in hospital two days after the crash. Her husband, a passenger, was seriously injured, and a 16-year-old passenger in the Mercedes car was also seriously injured.
Connors was extradited to the UK on Tuesday after being arrested by the Garda in Dublin on March 11, 2026, in connection with the collision.
He was later charged by North Wales Police and appeared at Llandudno Magistrates’ Court on Wednesday. He was remanded into custody to appear before Mold Crown Court on July 17.
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Chief superintendent Jaqueline Downes of North Wales Police said: “Our deepest sympathies remain with the family of Lydia La Polla following their tragic loss.
“We will continue to support them through each stage of the investigation and upcoming court proceedings. As this remains an active investigation, it is important that people do not speculate about the incident online.”
In a tribute, Ms La Polla’s family previously said she had a “true heart of gold” and was “devoted to her family”. They wrote: “We are truly devastated and heartbroken following the death of Lydia. She will be missed by family, friends, neighbours and work colleagues.
“Lydia had a true heart of gold and would always be there for others with her selfless acts of kindness. She was devoted to her family and friends.
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“The night of Monday, March 24, has scarred us for the rest of our lives. Life will never be the same without her. We ask for privacy at this time as we grieve our loss as a family.”
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Jeremy Clarkson has revealed he has been diagnosed with an “aggressive” form of cancer.
He revealed on the series, filmed from late 2024 to September 2025, how he had been diagnosed in May last year, telling farmhand Kaleb that ten per cent of his prostate ‘where the cancer is’ is ‘dead’.
Here are common questions around prostate cancer, symptoms of the disease and forms of treatment.
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Prostate cancer is the most common cancer affecting men and usually develops slowly over many years.
Cancer cells begin to grow in the prostate, the small gland found just below the bladder that helps make semen.
Symptoms of prostate cancer do not usually appear until the prostate is large enough to affect the urethra, which is the tube carrying urine from the bladder out of the penis.
In 2022, some 50,751 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer in England.
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What are the symptoms of prostate cancer?
The most common symptoms of prostate cancer are needing to urinate more often and straining to pee.
Men may also feel as though their bladder has not fully emptied.
These symptoms are common and do not always mean somebody has cancer, but they should be checked out by a GP.
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What causes prostate cancer?
Scientists do not know the exact causes of cancer but they do know that some factors increase the risk.
The chances of developing prostate cancer increase as men get older, with the vast majority of cases in those aged over 50.
Family history also plays a role, with men whose fathers or brothers had the disease at increased risk.
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For reasons not yet understood, prostate cancer is also more common in black men and less common in Asian men.
Prostate cancer is also linked to obesity.
How is prostate cancer diagnosed?
Doctors have a range of tests for diagnosing prostate cancer.
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These include a physical examination of the prostate (known as a digital rectal examination, or DRE), blood tests, biopsies and MRI scans.
Men may be offered a prostate specific antigen (PSA) test to look for markers in the blood.
High levels may be a sign of a prostate condition, such as an enlarged prostate, or prostate cancer.
The PSA test is not used in routine NHS screening because it is not yet reliable enough to detect prostate cancer that needs treatment.
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However, men over 50 can ask their GP for a PSA test.
How is prostate cancer treated?
If prostate cancer is at an early stage and not causing troubling symptoms, doctors may suggest something called “watchful waiting” or “active surveillance”.
This involves close monitoring of the cancer to see whether it is getting worse.
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Treatments can have side-effects, such as erectile dysfunction and needing to urinate more often, which is why slow-growing cancers may just be monitored.
Other prostate cancer treatments include surgically removing the prostate, or radiotherapy either on its own or alongside hormone therapy.
If the cancer has spread to other parts of the body, such as the bones or lymph nodes, it cannot be cured but treatment is still available.
This may include hormone therapy or chemotherapy alongside hormone therapy.
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Hormone therapy works by either stopping the body from making testosterone, or by stopping testosterone from reaching cancer cells.
Prostate cancer usually needs testosterone to grow and so this is a key treatment.
External beam radiotherapy may also be offered as it has been shown to help some men live longer when combined with other treatments.
Drug plans are tailored to the patient and so men should speak to their doctor about the best treatment for them.
The 28-year-old breached his sexual harm prevention order by seeing children unsupervised
A man breached his Sexual Prevention Harm Order (SPHO) by having contact with children and failing to tell police. Lewis Garraway, 28, was handed a SHPO in 2018 after a sexual offence with a girl and serving two weeks in a young offenders institution.
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He breached the requirements of the order and was sent to prison for 18 months in October 2021. Then in 2024, Garraway met a woman in her early 20s through a dating app.
In October that year, he met her in person for the first time and stayed at her family home in the Littleport area, where two children lived. Garraway failed to notify police, which is required under his order.
During the stay, he took one of the children to a park to play rugby without supervision, again breaching the order. The 28-year-old lied and told his girlfriend he was between properties, lost his key and had nowhere to live.
One of the woman’s family members grew suspicious and confronted Garraway after they found out about his previous offences. The family member contacted the police.
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On June 12 at Cambridge Crown Court, Garraway, of Seagate Terrace, Long Sutton, Lincolnshire, was sentenced to one year and six months in prison after admitting breaching a SHPO and two counts of failing to comply with the Sex Offenders Register.
Investigating officer DC Claire Cummings said: “Garraway showed a complete disregard for the restrictions placed on him to protect others, particularly children.
“Sexual harm prevention orders and notification requirements are there to manage risk and safeguard the public. Breaching them is a serious offence, and we will take robust action against anyone who fails to comply.
“I would encourage anyone who has concerns about someone’s behaviour, particularly where children may be at risk, to report it to us so we can take action.”
The Premier League champions are also exploring a deal for Christos Tzolis, but suggestions of a swap deal involving Atletico Madrid striker Julian Alvarez and Viktor Gyokeres are thought to be wide of the mark. Chelsea, meanwhile, are planning to reinvest the money from the Marc Cucurella sale to Real Madrid back into the squad and Lewis Hall has been mentioned as a potential replacement, though the Blues may face competition from Man United to re-sign the defender.
Under PSR, deductions are now set based upon on the level of the overspend, locked to a grid.
Go over the £39m limit and it is a points deduction.
It starts at three points for under £2m, then four for between £2m and £4m, five for £4m to £6m, and six points for £6m to £8m.
A club can claim back one or two points in mitigation if their accounts show a positive trend, but this would not be the case for the Tigers.
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Hull would argue that this is not a result of regular operational overspending. It is a by-product of their success as only the promotion bonuses have caused it.
This is unlikely to hold sway, as Forest discovered in 2024 when they were docked four points, as it is a sign of sporting benefit from payments made to players.
Leicester City provide the precedent for Hull to receive the deduction in the top flight.
This led to a change in the rules, with the two competitions inserting reciprocal clauses in their regulations.
Such collaboration between the leagues was seen in February.
The Premier League took action against Leicester for an overspend through to the 2024-25 season. The EFL agreed to apply the six-point penalty in the Championship, which ultimately caused their relegation.
PSR is being replaced on 1 July by a new system called squad cost ratio SCR). Rather than assessing losses over a three year-period, it allows clubs to spend 85% of the income they generate on their squads and is assessed annually.
A man described as a “vicious animal” left one man fighting for his life and another with life-changing injuries after a series of violent assaults.
Colin Campbell attacked five people he did not know. The attacks happened over a four-month period in 2025, with some of the assaults occurring while he was out on police bail.
He was jailed for seven and a half years yesterday (Tuesday). Mold Crown Court heard 24-year-old Campbell unleashed devastating single punches and headbutts on his unsuspecting victims. Recorder Neil Owen-Casey said it was “lucky” nobody was killed during the rampage, noting the attacker had caused “such devastation with your fists alone.”
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Prosecuting, Elen Owen said the first attack happened on March 23, 2025, outside the Lorne Public House in Rhyl. After a bystander intervened in an argument, Campbell punched him unconscious. The victim suffered a fractured skull and two brain bleeds, leaving his life “in the balance,” reports NorthWalesLive.
After being bailed by police, Campbell struck again a month later inside Tinkers Bar in Rhyl, punching another victim “from nowhere” and fracturing his jaw, eye socket, and cheekbone. The victim has been left with sight and hearing issues.
In the early hours of May 3, 2025, Campbell approached a stranger in Chester, saying, “I’m going to fight you.” He then headbutted the man and punched a member of door staff who intervened, damaging his teeth. Campbell was arrested and bailed once again. Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox
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The final and most devastating attack occurred on July 12, 2025, on Wellington Road, Rhyl. Campbell approached a father-of-five and punched him in the face, causing him to strike his head on the ground.
Police had to administer life-saving CPR at the scene. The victim underwent emergency brain surgery for a fractured skull and extensive brain bleeds. He now requires permanent care and has “little if any memory of his loved ones”. His heartbroken family stated the attack had destroyed his life.
Campbell, of Gwynfryn Avenue, Rhyl, admitted section 18 grievous bodily harm with intent, section 20 wounding, and two counts of assault causing actual bodily harm. He was also convicted after a trial for the final July wounding. The court heard he had a history of previous convictions for violence.
Defending, Sarah Yates said Campbell had a “chaotic” upbringing, mental health problems, and ADHD, which caused him to act impulsively.
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Jailing Campbell, Recorder Owen-Casey branded him a “vicious animal”, also describing him as “selfish” and “aggressive”, who was fuelled by alcohol. He noted that Campbell’s insight into his actions had “come far too late” to prevent life-altering injuries.
Armed police were dispatched to a Cambridge street on Wednesday (June 17). Police were called with reports that ambulance crews had been threatened with violence on Discovery Way, off Nuffield Road.
Images from Discovery Way showed multiple police cars and two ambulance vehicles. They also showed armed police officers wearing protective helmets and vests.
A police spokesperson said: “We were called at about 8.45am today (17 June) with reports of threats of violence towards ambulance crews on Discovery Way, Cambridge. Armed officers attended and a man is now in the care of the ambulance team.”
Austin Butler stars in the forgotten hit that is coming to ITVX next month
ITV has confirmed a much-loved television series from 2016 will land on its streaming service ITVX.
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The Shannara Chronicles, which ran for just two seasons on MTV before coming to an abrupt end in 2018, is an adaptation of Terry Brooks’ fantasy novel trilogy The Sword of Shannara.
Despite being cancelled after two seasons, the sci-fi series proved hugely popular among fantasy fans and those who had read the books, with a score of 7.1 out of 10 on IMDb and 79% on Rotten Tomatoes.
ITV has confirmed that both series of The Shannara Chronicles will be available to stream on ITVX on July 12.
The first series introduces viewers to the universe. A synopsis reads: “Thousands of years after the destruction of our civilisation, Earth is divided into what is known as the Four Lands, whose inhabitants are a mix of races including elves, dwarves, trolls, gnomes and humans.
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“At the centre is the Shannara family, whose descendants are empowered with ancient magic and whose adventures continuously reshape the future of the world.”
Meanwhile, the second series is set a year after the first, and the Four Lands are in chaos. The re-emergence of magic has the populace terrified, and an organisation called The Crimson is hunting down magic users, using fear and intimidation to sow discord among the races.
The Shannara Chronicles has a star-studded cast list, including a young Austin Butler, known for Masters of the Air, Dune: Part Two and Caught Stealing. The series also stars Poppy Drayton, Manu Bennett and John Rhys-Davies.
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Some viewers who watched the series over 10 years ago labelled it “one of the best” television series. It also received praise for its beautiful costumes, landscapes and special effects.
One reviewer wrote on IMDb: “Truly one of the best TV series I have seen in a very long time. The makeup and costumes were great. The acting was great. The whole feel of the show was mystical as it should have been…
“Told a few people about it, and now they are addicted to the show, and I really hope they do a season 2. It would be a great loss if they don’t. I grew up reading Terry Brooks’ books, and they kept me entertained as a child.
“I am so glad that they are finally putting his work to film. And think it was done really well. I hope to see them continue on with the chronicles. Great job!!”
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While another added: “A really beautiful fantasy. A lovely series. With fantasy, action, and some science fiction. Beautiful characters. It deserved to be longer.”
The Shannara Chronicles will be available to stream on ITVX on July 12.
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