Business
A ‘perfect storm’ points to a much smaller U.S. auto market by 2040

Ten years ago, a record 17.6 million cars, trucks and SUVs were sold in the U.S. Some forecasts say the country might not come close to that number again.
Analysts at consulting firm Bain & Company said several signs indicate the market is about to shrink even more. Falling birth rates, behavioral changes, high car prices and a growing array of alternatives could drive sales down by more than 2 million units by 2040, according to their analysis.
These indications point to a future where automakers fiercely compete for a shrinking number of customers, said Mark Gottfredson, a partner at Bain & Company.
The auto industry has historically depended on an annual 1% growth rate that tracks the increase of the overall population, Gottfredson said. But all over the world, government statistics show population growth has slowed, and some countries are already seeing declines.
“It is the perfect storm, isn’t it,” Gottfredson said. “It starts with the population declines. You’re no longer a growth industry. You’re a declining industry. You’re a declining industry at a time when the technology is disrupting everything.”
The U.S. fertility rate in 2025 was about 1.6 births per woman. While not as low as some countries in Europe or Asia, it’s considered below the replacement rate of 2.1, according to the Centers for Disease Control.
Bain said that has been offset by relatively high immigration — about a million people coming to the U.S., according to the historical average it cited. But the firm said it expects restrictive immigration policies will last for the next 15 years, cutting historical net migration rates of the past 20 years in half, which means it could again reach low levels seen in 2019.
That remaining population’s behavior has changed — in part due to high prices and affordable alternatives, according to Bain. Half of 16-year-olds today don’t have a driver’s license, compared with nearly 70% of 16-year-olds between the years of 1966 and 1984, Gottfredson said. The stat might reflect a mere delay rather than a total refusal — Bain’s research suggests most people still get licenses by age 25.
Still, the share of new vehicle registrations among people aged 18 to 34 fell from 12% in the first quarter of 2021 to under 10% by mid-2025, according to S&P Global Mobility. Buyers 55 and older account for nearly half of all new registrations and have held the largest share for eight straight quarters, the firm said.
“The engine behind it is affordability,” said Craig Daitch, founder and president of Telemetry, a firm that does market research for the auto industry. New vehicle monthly payments are up 30% over four years, and nearly one in five new vehicles now carries a payment over $1,000 a month, he added.

AutoForecast Solutions, a forecasting firm, expects U.S. new car sales to stay relatively flat at around 16 million through 2033, the furthest year in the future for which the company issues estimates.
“When you look into the future, younger people are more likely to use Uber or Lyft when they’re going somewhere,” Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for the company. “We’re still seeing groups of young people who enjoy driving and want a new car, but fewer can afford it.”
If robotaxis become widely available and affordable in the next 15 years, the share of the licensed population could drop around 2 to 3 percentage points, to 85%, according to Bain research. The number of vehicles per driver could drop from 1.2 to 1.1, which would be equivalent to 10% to 20% of U.S. households shedding one vehicle.
The projections Gottfredson shared with CNBC are revisions. He had earlier targeted 2030 as the year when volumes would dip below 14 million, but said he changed those assumptions because autonomous vehicles are taking longer than expected to arrive.
The population numbers though, are baked in.
“We already know how many people have been born and how many people will be of vehicle driving age at age 16 in 16 years from now. And so we can say with quite a bit of certainty that when we get to 2040, we’re going to see we’re going to see some decline in the U.S. That decline is even worse in places like Europe and in places like most of the countries in Asia.”
Gottfredson said the most direct indicator of a potential of a future decline is the rate at which vehicles are “deregistered,” which is when they’re taken off the road and either scrapped or exported to another market, as happens with used vehicles.
In 2000, the rate of deregistration was about 6%, according to the Bain report. As of 2025, the rate was about 5%. Gottfredson said that rate could fall to 4.4% by 2040. This is primarily because vehicles are lasting longer — hitting a record 12.8 years on the road in 2025, according to S&P Global Mobility.
This could reverse. The longevity of electric vehicle batteries is still uncertain. It is also unclear how long automakers will be willing or able to update the software that is increasingly vital to new cars.
However, auto forecasters say that with vehicle prices as high as they are, the industry will have to find a way to keep cars in service.
“Today’s vehicles can’t have a limitation of five to 10 years,” Fiorani said. “It’s not practical for a person who’s spending $50,000 or $100,000 that it’s going to be junk in less than a decade.”
Should these trends hold, the auto industry in the U.S. is liable to become ever more competitive. Consumers have their choice of about 450 nameplates in the country already.
“The competition in the U.S. is going to be ferocious,” Gottfredson said. “There’s too many automakers and too many brands competing for the consumers. The market is going to have to consolidate.”
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It’s Time To Go All-In On SCHD (NYSEARCA:SCHD)
My investment philosophy is built around one objective: compounding capital over a 30-year horizon to achieve financial independence by age 60. I target 12–15% annual total returns and focus purely on risk-adjusted upside. I don’t subscribe to a specific investing label — value, growth, dividend, or quality. Capital goes where the opportunity is strongest. My portfolio is intentionally concentrated, typically holding no more than 10–15 positions. These are high-conviction investments, not an exercise in diversification for its own sake. Valuation matters, but only in the context of future growth and business quality. I’m not looking for the cheapest stocks — I’m looking for the best risk-reward opportunities. I invest across both US and European markets and use dollar-cost averaging as a core execution discipline to remove emotion and market timing from the process. Outside equities, I own two residential properties. Combined with stocks, this provides geographic and asset-class diversification.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SCHD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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The Cheapest Ways to Stay in Touch With Family Abroad
Keeping in regular contact with loved ones who live in another country can easily become a major monthly expense. Whether you have children studying overseas, parents living in their home country, or siblings who moved for work, the costs pile up quickly.
Fortunately, several reliable methods can keep these bills to a minimum. From free messaging apps that rely on your internet connection to traditional voice services, you have plenty of choices to stay connected without breaking your budget.
How Dedicated International SIM Deals Cut Costs
While internet apps work well when everyone has a good web connection, they are not always ideal if your relatives live in areas with spotty coverage or don’t use smartphones. This is where specialised UK mobile networks provide an excellent solution by bundling international minutes directly into their monthly allowances. Instead of paying steep per-minute rates on traditional networks, you can get a budget plan that treats international calls much like local ones.
For example, the Lebara 5GB SIM-only plan costs just £5 a month and includes 100 international minutes to around 40 countries alongside its UK allowance. Destinations covered include most of Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, India, and China, among many others. Plus with their Roam Like Home scheme, you can use your data when roaming in the EU and India.
This makes it an incredibly affordable option for people who want to call landlines or mobile numbers abroad directly from their phone. Lebara runs on Vodafone’s network, which delivers reliable coverage all over the UK, and all plans support Wi-Fi calling and 5G technology at no additional cost, so calls hold up even in lower-signal areas.
Why Messaging Apps Work for Daily Updates
For daily updates and quick check-ins, data-based applications remain the most popular choice for families worldwide. WhatsApp works on both Android and Apple devices and allows free voice and video calls over Wi-Fi. It’s widely installed across the world, making it the most practical starting point for keeping in touch at no extra cost.
Apple users can also use FaceTime for calls with other Apple device owners, though this does not extend to people on Android phones.
These applications are incredibly useful for sharing photos, sending voice notes, and holding group video chats so everyone can stay involved. However, they rely on both parties having access to a stable internet connection. If your family members travel frequently or reside in regions with high data costs, relying solely on these apps can lead to missed connections.
How to Keep Data Usage Low on International Calls
Voice and video calls through apps like WhatsApp and FaceTime use your internet connection, which means they eat into your mobile data allowance. A standard voice call typically uses around 30-40MB per hour, but a video call can use anywhere from 250MB to over 1GB per hour depending on the quality and number of participants.
The simplest way to keep usage down is to make calls over Wi-Fi whenever possible. If you are on mobile data, switching to a voice-only call instead of video will make a big difference. You can also lower the data usage in WhatsApp by going to Settings, then Storage and Data, and turning on the “Use less data for calls” option.
For group calls with multiple family members, keeping cameras off for most of the call and only turning video on briefly will help stretch your data allowance much further. Scheduling calls for times when you know you will be connected to Wi-Fi, such as evenings at home, is another easy way to avoid using mobile data altogether.
Points to Remember
Staying in touch with family abroad doesn’t have to break the bank if you select the right tools. Free messaging apps are perfect for daily text updates and casual video calls when you have access to Wi-Fi.
For calling landlines and older mobile phones, a dedicated budget SIM offers the best value. By combining these different methods, you can maintain strong family ties while keeping your monthly costs completely under control.
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Los Angeles delays $30 minimum wage for hotel workers amid layoff fears
Los Angeles is delaying a hotel pay mandate that would raise wages to $30 an hour by 2028 after industry leaders warned the increase from $22.50 is causing job cuts and hiring freezes, according to Rebekah Paxton of the Employment Policy Institute.
Los Angeles officials have delayed implementation of a controversial plan to raise the minimum wage for hotel and airport workers to $30 an hour after the hospitality industry warned the mandate could result in layoffs, reduced hiring and increased automation.
The measure, often referred to as the “Olympic Wage,” was originally designed to increase wages to $30 an hour by 2028 as Los Angeles prepares to host the Summer Olympics.
But city leaders recently voted to push back full implementation until 2030 amid concerns about rising labor costs as hotels prepare for a surge in visitors tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Olympics.
AOC-BACKED $25 MINIMUM WAGE COULD SQUEEZE SMALL BUSINESSES IN RED STATES

Supporters say a $30 minimum wage would help Los Angeles hotel workers keep pace with the city’s high cost of living, while opponents warn it could reduce jobs. (Marcus Brandt/picture alliance/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Rebekah Paxton, research director at the Employment Policies Institute, said city leaders began reconsidering the timeline after concerns emerged from the hospitality industry ahead of several major international events.
“There were concerns from the hotel community,” Paxton told Fox News Digital. “There was some data that came out that the hotels were struggling ahead of the Olympics, even as we’re approaching the World Cup this summer.”
The proposal also comes as New York City officials consider a separate plan to raise the city’s minimum wage to $30 an hour over several years, a concept aligned with broader progressive efforts to increase wage floors in high-cost areas.
AOC-BACKED $25 MINIMUM WAGE PLAN SOUNDS GREAT — BUT AT WHAT COST?

Los Angeles will welcome athletes from around the world for the 2028 Summer Olympics as city leaders weigh policies aimed at preparing for the global event (Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Paxton noted that hotel workers currently earn a minimum wage of roughly $22.50 an hour, meaning the proposal would raise pay by about one-third over just a few years. She said hotel operators warned the higher labor costs were already affecting hiring decisions as Los Angeles prepares for the World Cup and Olympics.
Citing a report from the Los Angeles hotel industry, Paxton said some hotels had reduced hiring and staffing because they could not absorb the anticipated labor costs.
City officials ultimately voted to delay the $30 wage requirement from 2028 to 2030, a move Paxton said gives hotels “a little bit of breathing room as we ramp up toward the Olympics.”
Still, she argued the delay does not resolve the industry’s underlying concerns.
“A $30 minimum wage is still a $30 minimum wage,” Paxton said. “A pause is certainly a step in the right direction, but it’s not going to solve the ultimate problem, which is a lot of folks saying that they can’t sustain that level of a wage increase.”
Paxton said supporters of the wage increase argue workers should receive higher pay, particularly as Los Angeles prepares to welcome millions of visitors for upcoming international sporting events.
“For proponents of this $30 minimum wage, this is sort of a junction where they can sort of make an emotional plea to the public,” Paxton said. “And of course, who doesn’t want to give workers more money?”
However, Paxton argued the higher wage requirement could further strain an industry that has already experienced hiring challenges.
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Los Angeles officials delayed a plan to raise the minimum wage for hotel and airport workers to $30 an hour until 2030. (Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images / Getty Images)
“My team at EPI has done some work looking at the hotel industry since 2015,” she said. “And even before this went into place, hiring was stagnating. There were fewer jobs available for folks who wanted to be in the hospitality industry.”
“And so, by proposing this kind of super-sized hotel minimum wage on top of what already existed, you’re just going to exacerbate those negative economic impacts.”
The debate over the so-called Olympic Wage is expected to continue as Los Angeles prepares for a series of major international events while city leaders weigh competing priorities of worker pay, business costs and economic growth.
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