Crypto World
Why Chainlink price could rally to $10 as oversold RSI signals a bounce
Chainlink’s price is stabilizing at key Fibonacci support, with oversold RSI readings and improving momentum pointing toward a potential relief rally into the $10 resistance zone.
Summary
- $8.33 Fibonacci support is holding, confirming a short-term swing low
- RSI remains oversold, signaling selling pressure exhaustion
- Bullish momentum building, with $10 as the next key resistance
Chainlink (LINK) price action is beginning to show constructive signs after an extended period of downside pressure. Following weeks of aggressive selling, LINK has established a clear swing low and is now attempting to build a base above a technically significant support zone. This shift comes as momentum indicators flash oversold conditions, suggesting that bearish pressure may be exhausting.
As prices stabilize and buyers step in, the broader setup increasingly favors a corrective bounce rather than continued downside. With multiple technical factors aligning near current levels, Chainlink appears positioned for a potential rally toward higher resistance as momentum normalizes.
Chainlink price key technical points
- $8.33 support aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci, reinforcing demand
- RSI remains in oversold territory, signaling momentum exhaustion
- Bullish follow-through opens a path toward $10 resistance, a key upside level
Chainlink has successfully established support around the $8.33 region, an area that carries notable technical importance. This level coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, often referred to as the “golden ratio,” which frequently acts as a high-probability reaction zone in corrective moves.
The formation of a swing low at this level suggests that sellers are losing control and that demand is beginning to absorb supply. Price has since reacted positively from this area, confirming it as a short-term base and increasing confidence that a local bottom may be in place.
Holding above this support keeps the broader corrective structure constructive and limits immediate downside risk.
Oversold RSI signals momentum exhaustion
One of the most compelling elements supporting a potential rally is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains in oversold territory. Oversold RSI conditions typically reflect excessive selling pressure and often precede relief rallies as momentum begins to revert toward neutral levels.
In Chainlink’s case, the oversold RSI is occurring after an extended downtrend, increasing the probability that the market is entering a mean-reversion phase. As price continues to stabilize and push higher, the RSI is likely to recover toward neutral territory, supporting further upside continuation.
Importantly, RSI recoveries do not require full trend reversals. Even within broader corrective structures, oversold conditions often produce sharp counter-trend moves as selling pressure fades.
Bullish influxes support the bounce
Recent price action suggests that the current rise is not purely mechanical. Bullish influxes are beginning to appear, indicating renewed buying activity. This shift in behavior is critical, as sustainable bounces require demand to return rather than relying solely on short covering.
As long as bullish participation continues and price maintains acceptance above support, the probability of a continuation move higher increases. The structure now favors a rotation toward the next major resistance rather than an immediate retest of lows.
$10 resistance comes into focus
If the current momentum persists, the next key upside target sits near the $10 level. This zone represents a significant resistance area where price previously faced rejection and where sellers may re-emerge. A move into this region would be consistent with a corrective rally driven by oversold conditions rather than a full trend reversal.
Reaching $10 would allow the RSI to normalize and provide the market with a clearer view of underlying demand strength. How price behaves around this resistance will be crucial in determining whether the rally can extend further or transition into consolidation.
What to expect in the coming price action
From a technical, price-action, and market-structure perspective, Chainlink appears poised for a relief rally as long as the $8.33 support holds. Oversold RSI conditions, Fibonacci confluence, and improving bullish participation all support further upside.
In the near term, consolidation above support followed by higher lows would strengthen the bullish scenario. A $8.33 loss on a closing basis would weaken the setup and reintroduce downside risk.
Ether (ETH) traded back above $2,000 on Friday, and its gains extended after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in cooler than expected.
The recovery put ETH/USD on track for its first bullish weekly candle close since mid-January, fueling speculation for a rally toward $2,500.
Key takeaways:
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Ether futures’ open interest fell by 80 million ETH in 30 days, and funding rates hit three-year lows, indicating a weakening bearish trend.
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ETH price has established strong support around $2,000, a level that must hold to secure the recovery.
Ether open interest falls by 80 million ETH
CryptoQuant data shows Ether futures open interest (OI) across all major exchanges has dropped by over 80 million ETH in the past 30 days.
Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, recorded the largest decline of about 40 million ETH (50%) over the last 30 days.
Related: ETH ETF holders in ‘worse position’ than BTC ETF peers as crypto market looks for bottom
Ether’s OI on Gate exchange fell by more than 20 million ETH (25%), while Bybit and OKX saw declines of 8.5 million ETH and 6.8 million ETH, respectively. Cumulatively, the four major platforms saw a total decline of about 75 million ETH, while other platforms accounted for the remaining five million ETH, confirming that the phenomenon is widespread and not limited to a single exchange.
This suggests that leverage traders are “reducing their exposure rather than opening new positions,” CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake analysis.
This significant drop in OI amid dropping prices can be “viewed as a clean-up of weaker positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of sharp forced liquidations later on,” the analyst said, adding:
“This environment may pave the way for a period of relative stability or the formation of a more solid price base for Ethereum in the near future.”
Ether futures funding rates on Binance have plunged deep into negative territory at -0.006, marking the lowest value recorded since early December 2022.
“It indicates that the bearish sentiment has reached an extreme peak not seen in the last three years,” CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain said in a Thursday Quicktake analysis.
Historically, extreme negative funding rates at major price support levels often precede a short squeeze.
“When the crowd is this convinced that prices will fall further, the market tends to move in the opposite direction to liquidate late bears,” the analyst said, adding:
“Current data suggests we may be witnessing a classic capitulation event, mirroring the bottom formation of late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a sharp recovery.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether’s surging network activity and rising institutional investor inflows are significant tailwinds for any short-term ETH price gains.
ETH price technicals: Bulls must keep Ether above $2,000
The ETH/USD pair broke out of a falling wedge on the four-hour chart, to trade at $2,050 at the time of writing.
The measured target of the falling wedge, calculated by adding the wedge’s maximum height to the breakout point at $1,950, is $2,150.
Higher than that, the price may rise to retest the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $2,260 and later toward $2,500.
On the downside, a key area to hold is the $2,000 psychological level, embraced by the 50-period SMA, as shown in the chart below.
The Glassnode cost basis distribution heatmap reveals a significant support area recently established between $1,880 and $1,900, where investors acquired approximately 1.3 million ETH.
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether accumulation addresses witnessed a surge in daily inflows as ETH dropped below $2,000 last week, signalling strong investor confidence in its long-term potential.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
TLDR:
- Tokenized gold market cap surpasses $6B, adding $2B year-to-date growth.
- Over 1.2 million ounces of physical gold are now back on-chain tokens.
- XAUT and PAXG control nearly 96.7% of the total sector market share.
- Rising gold prices near $5,000 are driving demand for tokenized assets.
The tokenized gold market has crossed $6 billion in total market value this year. The sector added nearly $2 billion year-to-date as gold prices approached $5,000 per ounce.
More than 1.2 million ounces of physical gold are now back on-chain tokens.
Market Expansion Tracks Rising Gold Prices
Posts shared by Coin Bureau on X reported that tokenized gold recently crossed the $6 billion mark. The update noted that the sector added roughly $2 billion in 2026 alone. Growth has accelerated as bullion prices climbed toward $5,000 per ounce.
Investors have increasingly turned to tokenized real-world assets for exposure to commodities. Gold-backed tokens allow users to hold allocated bullion through blockchain networks. As prices advanced, demand for digital representations of gold also strengthened.
Data shared in the posts showed that more than 1.2 million ounces of physical gold are locked to back these tokens.
Each token reflects ownership of a portion of stored gold reserves. Holders can therefore gain gold exposure without managing physical storage.
Tokenized gold trades continuously across supported platforms. This structure enables transfers at any time, unlike traditional bullion markets with fixed trading hours. As a result, market access has expanded to a broader base of participants.
XAUT and PAXG Maintain Strong Market Control
The market remains highly concentrated between two issuers. Tether Gold (XAUT) and Paxos Gold (PAXG) account for approximately 96.7% of the total market share. Other tokenized gold products represent only a small fraction of the supply.
XAUT is backed by gold stored in Swiss vaults. PAXG, in comparison, is supported by allocated gold audited monthly in London. Both tokens are designed to track the price of physical bullion closely.
Supporters cite around-the-clock trading and compatibility with decentralized finance platforms as key features. Tokenized gold can integrate with wallets and blockchain applications. This structure allows users to transfer or utilize gold-backed assets efficiently.
At the same time, the sector’s heavy reliance on two issuers remains clear. Concentration levels leave limited diversification within the tokenized gold market. Even so, the asset class continues to expand as gold prices remain elevated.
With bullion near historic levels and blockchain adoption growing steadily, tokenized gold maintains strong alignment between physical reserves and digital markets.
XRP price could rally 100% if BlackRock files for an XRP ETF, as analysts flag a shift in institutional allocations beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum into alternative assets.
Summary
- Analyst Zach Rector argues that today’s market differs from prior cycles as institutions diversify beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, with early inflows into XRP-priced products seen as a sign of shifting allocations.
- Rector says a formal BlackRock XRP ETF filing would be a structural catalyst, potentially doubling XRP by expanding regulated access, liquidity, and portfolio integration for large investors.
- He notes that short-term pullbacks remain likely, but views current conditions as longer-term accumulation territory ahead of possible regulatory clarity, new products, and broader altcoin rotation.
A cryptocurrency analyst has projected that XRP (XRP) price could rally 100% if BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, files for an XRP exchange-traded fund, according to statements reported by Finbold.
Zach Rector, a crypto market commentator who has followed digital asset markets for several years, stated that the current institutional environment represents a departure from previous market cycles. Rector cited growing diversification in institutional cryptocurrency allocations as evidence of changing investment patterns.
Recent fund flow data indicates selective outflows from certain Bitcoin and Ethereum investment products, while alternative cryptocurrency vehicles, including XRP-linked instruments, have begun attracting capital inflows. Market analysts have characterized this activity as potential evidence that institutional investors may be expanding exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Rector stated that a formal ETF filing from BlackRock would constitute a structural shift in institutional access to XRP exposure. “And we’ll see XRP double when that happens,” Rector said, according to the report.
An ETF backed by BlackRock could expand institutional access to XRP, improve market liquidity, and strengthen the cryptocurrency’s positioning within traditional investment portfolios, according to market observers. Major ETF product launches have historically served as catalysts in cryptocurrency markets, particularly when associated with globally recognized asset management firms.
Rector noted that short-term price pullbacks remain possible as the broader cryptocurrency market moves toward stabilization. The analyst emphasized that longer-term positioning appears increasingly focused on accumulation ahead of potential institutional catalysts.
Regulatory clarity, new financial product launches, and sustained capital rotation into alternative digital assets could determine whether XRP becomes a primary beneficiary of institutional allocation trends, according to market analysts.
The leading prediction market is leaning into rumors of a future $POLY token airdrop.
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket is catering to its high-risk audience by introducing 5-minute crypto markets and teasing an airdrop for power users.
The new 5-minute markets allow users to bet on whether or not BTC’s 5-minute candles will close up or down, while providing market maker rebates to liquidity providers.
Following the launch, Polymarket’s “senior intern” and developer, Mustafa Aljatery, responded to one of the platform’s power users in a post saying “1m markets and $POLY next.”
This is not Aljatery’s first time leaning into token and Layer 2 speculation; however, the prediction market began the month by filing a trademark for the $POLY ticker, and Polymarket’s growth lead, William Legate, seemingly confirmed the airdrop after responding “no” to a user who wondered if the platform’s snapshot was already taken.
The speculation comes as Polymarket’s volumes continue to surge to new all-time highs, with almost $3.4 billion traded in January alone.
It took more than three years for Polymarket to reach $3.4 billion in volume; now it is clearing that in a single month. So far, $4.9 billion of volume has been traded on Polymarket in 2026.
Despite all the rumors surrounding a potential token and Layer 2 launch, Polymarket has yet to publicly disclose any information about its future structure and whether investors will receive tokens or equity.
The platform’s most recent funding round valued Polymarket at $9 billion, with a $2 billion investment led by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Cryptocurrency markets have undergone structural changes that may prevent most alternative digital assets from reaching their previous all-time highs.
Summary
- Most altcoins are unlikely to reach previous all-time highs due to liquidity issues and capital being concentrated in large-cap assets.
- The current market may be undergoing a mid-cycle reset, with most of the price decline already completed, followed by about 200 days of sideways consolidation before price expansion resumes.
- Traditional four-year cycle models may no longer apply, with the market showing faster declines and a potential earlier recovery than anticipated by the consensus view of a prolonged bear market.
Institutional capital has fundamentally altered market dynamics that previously characterized retail-driven cycles tied to Bitcoin halving events.
In 2018, approximately 1,000 cryptocurrencies traded in markets that exhibited more predictable patterns, according to the analyst. Traders typically rotated between altcoin-to-Bitcoin pairs and exited positions following post-halving bull runs. Market behavior through 2021 remained largely retail-led, with halving events carrying significant psychological influence and price patterns repeating with consistency.
That framework has since changed, according to market analyst Inmortal. Institutional investors have directed billions of dollars primarily toward Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana, along with select large-cap assets. Thousands of new tokens launched in 2025 alone, dispersing available capital across a broader range of assets.
The analyst stated that retail investors anticipated institutional capital inflows would benefit the broader market. Instead, large institutional players concentrated holdings in major assets while retail capital pursued short-term investment narratives. As liquidity is distributed across numerous tokens, potential gains for most altcoins diminished.
Under these conditions, 99% of altcoins may never return to prior all-time highs, according to the analyst’s projection. The four-year cycle models that previously guided market participants may no longer function as reliable indicators.
What happened?
The crypto market is experiencing a shift that could leave most altcoins permanently below their previous all-time highs. With liquidity spread across thousands of tokens, the chances of altcoins recovering are slim. The traditional four-year cycle models, which once guided market predictions, may no longer hold up as reliable indicators.
In the past, these cycle models worked because they were based on factors like Bitcoin halvings and limited market awareness, which made the cycles easier to predict. However, as these patterns became widely recognized, their predictive value diminished. A 2022 projection had anticipated a cycle peak around late 2025, and this was largely aligned with the market high seen in October 2025. But the current market structure is showing signs of deviation from previous cycles.
Unlike the 2018-2021 cycle, where the market saw a sharp 75% price decline followed by over a year of sideways movement, today’s decline is happening much faster. Despite this, long-term support levels, such as the 200-week moving average, have remained intact, suggesting that the market is more resilient than a typical cycle-end scenario would imply.
Instead of expecting a prolonged downturn followed by 600 days of sideways movement, the analyst believes the market may already have completed 80-90% of the expected price decline. After that, about 200 days of consolidation may occur before price expansion resumes. This suggests a mid-cycle reset, challenging the consensus view that a traditional bear market and significant losses are still on the horizon.
If this scenario plays out, the market could see an earlier-than-expected recovery, as the price compression will likely resolve more quickly than many anticipate. However, for altcoins, the outlook remains bleak, with most failing to reach their previous highs due to the concentration of capital in larger assets. Until the market decisively breaks through current support levels, the downtrend is expected to persist within a broader expansion phase.
After a fall from grace last year, Mantra is seemingly attempting a comeback with a rebrand.
Less than a year after Mantra’s OM token inexplicably plummeted 90% in minutes, the real-world asset (RWA) protocol is rebranding to a new token, and OM is up 33% today after MEXC announced its support for the token swap.
OM’s market capitalization jumped from $55 million to $72 million after the crypto exchange said it would support the upcoming migration from OM to MANTRA. MEXC will accept deposits of OM, which will be swapped 1:4 to MANTRA.
Despite rallying 33%, OM is still down 99% from its all-time high of $8.5 in February 2025 and currently trades at $0.06.
The rebranding comes just one month after Mantra announced staff cuts amidst a company restructuring.
While it remains to be seen whether this restructuring and token migration will help restore Mantra’s tarnished image, other protocols that have taken the token migration route have not fared well.
The most notable examples include Polygon’s migration from MATIC to POL, and Fantom’s migration and pivot from FTM to Sonic and its S token.
MATIC reached an all-time high fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $29.2 billion in December 2021, and POL now trades at a $1 billion FDV. FTM also reached its previous all-time high in December 2021, achieving an $11 billion FDV, but S now trades at just $171 million.
Crypto World
FedEx Joins Hedera Council to Transform Global Supply Chain Through Distributed Ledger Technology
TLDR:
- FedEx will operate a Hedera network node and hold equal voting rights with other council members.
- Hedera’s enterprise-grade distributed ledger enables secure data verification across organizations.
- FedEx executive calls digital supply chain transformation inevitable, requiring neutral trust layers.
- Partnership aims to reduce cross-border commerce friction through interoperable data verification.
FedEx Corp. announced its membership in the Hedera Council on February 13, 2026. The logistics giant will contribute operational expertise to support distributed ledger technology for global supply chains.
Hedera Council consists of leading organizations governing the Hedera network’s enterprise-grade infrastructure. FedEx will operate a network node and participate in governance decisions alongside other council members.
This partnership aims to reduce friction in cross-border commerce through secure data verification.
Strategic Focus on Digital Infrastructure
FedEx’s entry into the Hedera Council aligns with its broader digital transformation strategy. The company seeks to enable global commerce to operate at data speed rather than paper-based processes.
Vishal Talwar, executive vice president and chief digital officer at FedEx Corp., addressed this transition directly. He serves as president of FedEx Dataworks alongside his corporate role.
Talwar emphasized the inevitable nature of supply chain evolution. “The digital transformation of global supply chains is inevitable,” he stated.
Supply chains are becoming increasingly digital-native environments requiring new trust mechanisms. “Trusted data must be shared and verified across many parties without increasing risk or centralizing control,” Talwar explained.
The executive highlighted Hedera’s specific advantages for enterprise operations. “Hedera provides a neutral, enterprise-grade trust layer that enables verification at global scale,” he noted.
The platform allows organizations like FedEx to build differentiated capabilities on established infrastructure. Companies maintain control over sensitive operational data within their own environments.
The distributed ledger technology supports interoperable digital ecosystems across multiple platforms. FedEx can develop proprietary services while participating in shared verification standards.
This balance between collaboration and competition defines the council’s approach. Equal voting rights ensure no single member dominates governance decisions.
Enabling Cross-Border Commerce Efficiency
Tom Sylvester, president of the Hedera Council, welcomed the partnership announcement. “We are proud to welcome FedEx to the Council,” Sylvester said.
He recognized the company’s extensive experience in global logistics and commerce. “FedEx brings deep operational insight into global logistics and commerce,” the council president stated.
Sylvester emphasized the value of FedEx’s perspective during the industry transition. “Their perspective will be valuable as the industry transitions toward digitally native supply chains,” he explained.
The council anticipates productive collaboration on infrastructure standards. “We look forward to working together to advance trusted, interoperable data verification,” Sylvester added.
The partnership addresses growing complexity across jurisdictions and regulatory frameworks. Hedera’s verification capabilities enable secure data sharing between organizations.
Automation and digital visibility become more feasible with trusted infrastructure foundations. The technology supports continuous compliance requirements across international trade environments.
FedEx brings decades of logistics experience to infrastructure discussions. This operational knowledge helps shape practical applications for distributed ledger technology.
The focus remains on real-world implementation, addressing actual supply chain challenges. Hedera’s enterprise-grade design supports high-volume transactions while maintaining governance controls.
The partnership reflects broader industry recognition of decentralized infrastructure’s importance. Supply chain digitization requires trust mechanisms spanning organizational boundaries.
The Hedera Council model allows enterprises to collectively govern shared infrastructure. Members compete on services while cooperating on foundational technology standards.
Ether holds $2,000, but may remain under pressure as traders watch corporate earnings, US government debt and growing global tensions.
Key takeaways:
-
Institutional demand for Ether is cooling as investors shift toward the safety of short-term US government bonds.
-
High interest rates and rising ETH supply make the current staking yield less attractive for long-term holders.
Ether (ETH) price has failed to sustain levels above $2,150 since Feb. 5, leading traders to fear a further correction. Investor sentiment deteriorated following outflows from Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased demand for put (sell) options.
US-listed Ether ETFs saw $242 million in net outflows between Wednesday and Thursday, reversing the trend from the prior two days. The institutional demand that followed the 20% Ether price recovery after the $1,744 bottom on Feb. 6 has faded as investors noted inconsistency in US economic growth—evident by the growing demand for short-term US government bonds.
Yields on the US 2-year Treasury declined to 3.42% on Friday, nearing the lowest levels seen since August 2022. The higher demand for government-backed debt reflects traders’ expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) throughout 2026. Signs of economic stagnation reduce inflationary risks, paving the way for expansionist measures.
Regardless of macroeconomic trends, Ether has underperformed the broader cryptocurrency market, causing traders to question if Ethereum still has what it takes to compete against networks that offer base layer scalability and faster onchain activity.
Traders fear that ETH price is destined for more downside, but data seems to reflect the recent price weakness rather than the anticipation of a further crash.
Ether price declined 38% in 30 days, which negatively pressures the network’s fees and ultimately reduces incentives for staking. Long term holding is a critical component for sustainable price growth, and the current 2.9% staking yield is far from appealing, considering the US Fed target rate stands at 3.5%. Furthermore, the ETH supply is growing at an 0.8% annualized rate.
ETH derivatives metrics reflect traders’ fear of further price drops
Professional traders are not comfortable holding downside price exposure according to ETH derivatives metrics, which further reinforces the bearish sentiment.
The ETH options delta skew stood at 10% on Friday, meaning put (sell) options traded at a premium. The increased demand for neutral-to-bearish strategies causes the indicator to move above the 6% threshold, which has been the norm for the past two weeks. Traders’ mood reflects a six-month bear market as ETH trades 58% below its all-time high.
Related: Crypto investor sentiment will rise once CLARITY Act is passed–Bessent
From a broader perspective, a mere $242 million in Ether ETF outflows represents less than 2% of the total $12.7 billion in assets under management; hence, traders should not assume that ETH price has entered a death spiral. Investors’ morale will eventually recover as the network remains the absolute leader in Total Value Locked (TVL).
Traders’ attention will likely remain centered on corporate earnings results and whether the US government will be able to refinance its debt amid growing global socio-economic tensions. Under this scenario, ETH price will likely remain pressured regardless of onchain and derivatives metrics.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Ether continues to hover near the $2,000 area, but the bulls facesheadwinds from a suite of macro and market dynamics that could cap any bounce. Traders are parsing corporate earnings guidance, the trajectory of US government debt refinancing, and mounting global tensions that can keep risk assets on a sensitive leash. After a brief rebound earlier in February, Ether has struggled to muster sustained upside as funding costs stay elevated and investors rotate toward liquidity in short-term Treasuries. The balance of on-chain activity, investor sentiment, and macro indicators will likely determine whether $2,000 acts as a magnet or a battleground for the next leg of this cycle.
Key takeaways
- Institutional demand for Ether is cooling as investors shift toward the safety of short-term US government bonds.
- High interest rates and rising ETH supply make the current staking yield less attractive for long-term holders.
- US-listed Ether ETFs posted net outflows, underscoring a shift in liquidity away from Ether-related products in the near term.
- Markets are pricing in the potential for further rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, as signs of economic stagnation temper inflationary risks.
Tickers mentioned: $ETH
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. Ether is facing renewed downside pressure amid macro headwinds and fading ETF inflows.
Market context: The broader crypto landscape remains heavily correlated with macro liquidity and risk sentiment. As investors reassess growth trajectories and central bank paths, flows into Ether ETFs and related instruments have become a bellwether for institutional appetite. With the 2-year US Treasury yield echoing the low- to mid-3% regime seen in recent sessions, traders anticipate a possible easing cycle later in the year, a dynamic that often trades off against appetite for higher-risk, high-utility assets like Ether.
Why it matters
Ether’s ability to sustain price strength is intimately tied to both on-chain economics and external financial conditions. The network’s staking yield—already a focal point for long-term holders—faces increased scrutiny as the annual ETH supply growth persists at roughly 0.8%. Against a backdrop of a stagnant or sluggish macro backdrop, a 2.9% staking yield becomes less compelling for risk-averse investors when the Fed’s target rate sits higher, and bond markets offer a comparatively safer carry. This dynamic can dampen the incentive to stake, potentially dampening network security metrics and long-term price resilience if the flow of fresh ETH to stake is subdued.
Market momentum has also been influenced by ETF mechanics. Recent outflows from US-listed Ether ETFs, totaling around $242 million over a short window, have erased earlier inflows that followed Ether’s bottoming around the mid-$1,700s in February. Although the outflows represent a fraction of total assets under management, they signal a shift in sentiment among institutional participants who previously sought exposure through regulated wrappers. Net flows matter because they influence price discovery and liquidity, especially in a market where players weigh the relative safety of traditional assets against the potential upside of a more scalable and active network.
From a technical and derivatives perspective, traders have grown more cautious. The options market shows a tilt toward downside protection, with the delta skew for Ether options tracing above longer-term averages as investors pay a premium for put-driven hedges or neutral-to-bearish bets. This mood aligns with the observation that the asset trades substantially below its all-time highs, and even a mid-cycle recovery may be met with sellers who view rallies as opportunities to exit risk exposure.
Even as macro narratives push risk-off tendencies, Ether’s position as the leading smart contract platform remains intact in terms of activity and TVL leadership. Yet, the near-term price path hinges on a confluence of factors: corporate earnings resonance, the pace of debt refinancing, and the macro impulse toward or away from expansionary fiscal measures. The market is also watching policy signals and potential regulatory clarity that could influence appetite for crypto assets overall. In parallel, other networks offering base-layer scalability and faster on-chain throughput keep pressuring ETH’s relative competitive stance, particularly when investors seek higher efficiency at a similar risk profile.
Overall, the market narrative remains cautious. Traders acknowledge that a meaningful downside could be tempered by supportive macro cues or favorable liquidity conditions, but the immediate trajectory appears tethered to external events rather than purely on-chain developments. In this environment, Ether’s price reactivity is likely to depend on the collectivity of earnings surprises, debt management decisions, and the speed at which risk appetite re-emerges after episodes of volatility.
What to watch next
- Upcoming corporate earnings season and guidance revisions that may influence broader risk sentiment.
- US government debt refinancing milestones and any shifts in fiscal policy that affect liquidity conditions.
- Net ETF flows for Ether products in the next reporting period and any changes in investor allocations.
- Macro data releases and Fed commentary that could solidify or alter expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
- On-chain activity and staking metrics that could alter the relative attractiveness of ETH staking over time.
Sources & verification
- US-listed Ether ETF net flow data and related commentary from market trackers and issuer analyses.
- Pricing and yield data for the US 2-year Treasury, with context on regime expectations for Fed policy.
- Historical ETH price actions, including the February bottom around $1,744 and subsequent recovery patterns.
- Derivatives metrics for ETH, including delta skew readings from Deribit via data providers.
- On-chain and market commentary describing total value locked and network leadership dynamics in short- to mid-term cycles.
Ether under pressure as macro cues weigh on ETH
Ether (Ether (CRYPTO: ETH)) has spent recent sessions hovering near the $2,000 level, with constraints on a sustained move above roughly $2,150 since early February. The hesitation is not solely technical; it reflects a complex interplay between macro policy expectations, investor risk appetite, and the evolving structure of liquidity in crypto markets. After a brief bounce off a February trough around the mid-$1,700s, Ether’s price action has cooled as traders reassess the durability of any rally in the face of higher funding costs and competing opportunities in fixed income.
One of the critical macro signals comes from the bond market. The US two-year Treasury yield has moved toward the lower end of its range, around the 3.4% area, signaling that participants anticipate a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve in the coming years. This shift in rate expectations tends to push investors toward safer assets, including government debt, and away from higher-beta risk assets like Ether. The dynamic is reinforced by growth signals that, at least in the near term, point toward a more tepid expansion, which reduces inflationary pressure and can further support a cautious easing bias by the Fed.
In the near term, the ETF landscape remains a focal point. After a period of resilience, US-listed Ether ETFs posted net outflows that overshadowed earlier inflows tied to the recovery from the February dip. The outflows—calibrated against a substantial asset base—suggest that some institutional participants have scaled back their near-term exposure, contributing to soft price action. This is particularly relevant given that the broader crypto market often tracks risk-on/risk-off sentiment as much as, if not more than, internal on-chain metrics.
On-chain and derivatives metrics offer a complementary view of sentiment. The ETH options market has shown elevated demand for hedges, with the delta skew for 30-day options remaining elevated and indicating a willingness among professional traders to pay for protection against downside moves. The dataset, drawn from sources measuring the put-call balance, underscores a prevailing mood of caution among market participants who are mindful of the higher probability of further drawdowns given the current macro backdrop. This sentiment aligns with the six-month bear-market narrative, as Ether trades well below its all-time high and investors weigh the risk/reward of staking versus holding for appreciation.
Supply dynamics also weigh on the long-term narrative. Ether’s annualized supply growth sits modestly positive, while the immediate yield offered by staking remains modest in comparison to the prevailing interest rate environment. For long-term holders, the attractiveness of staking becomes a function of both yield and the perceived safety of ETH as a platform with continued innovation and network effects. The tug of war between yield, risk, and network activity will help determine whether staking becomes a stronger driver of price stability or a source of selling pressure if yields fail to outpace risk premia in traditional markets.
Market leadership in on-chain activity and TVL remains a strength of the Ethereum ecosystem, which helps to anchor Ether’s longer-term narrative even as near-term price action exhibits caution. However, the combination of macro sensitivity, ETF flow dynamics, and derivatives positioning means that the path forward is likely to be incremental rather than transformative in the near term. Investors will be watching not only macro indicators and corporate earnings but also regulatory clarity and liquidity shifts that could redefine the risk landscape for crypto assets in the months ahead. The outcome will shape whether Ether can regain momentum or continue to trade in a constrained range as the market reconciles macro expectations with the evolving use cases on Ethereum’s network.
For readers tracking the broader macro and on-chain narrative, the next few weeks will be telling. If inflation eases more rapidly than anticipated or if the Fed signals a clearer path toward rate cuts, risk appetite could stabilize and support a healthier Ether environment. Conversely, if growth indicators surprise to the downside or if liquidity conditions tighten further, ETH could test new near-term lows as traders search for safety and retreat from higher-risk exposures.
Shiba Inu Coin price has crashed into a bear market, moving from a high of $0.00004565 in March 2024 to the current $0.0000060, and activity in the futures market points to more downside.
Summary
- Shiba Inu Coin price has dived, with its market cap falling from $41 billion to $3.7 billion.
- The futures open interest has continued falling in the past few months.
- Its weighted funding rate has remained in the red since February 5.
Shiba Inu (SHIB), the biggest meme coin on Ethereum (ETH), was trading at $0.0000060, with its market cap falling from a record high of over $41 billion to $3.7 billion today.
Data compiled by CoinGlass shows that the futures open interest has continued falling this year. It moved to just $61 million, down substantially from last July’s high of over $400 million.
Open interest is a crucial metric that measures unfilled orders in the futures market. A higher open interest when a coin is rising is a sign of increasing investor demand.
The broader open interest in the crypto market has dived in the past few months following the $20 billion liquidation event in October last year. This is one of the top reasons why Bitcoin and most altcoins have dropped.
Meanwhile, Shiba Inu’s weighted funding rate has remained in the red since February 5. A funding rate is a key data that looks at the small fee that longs and shorts in the futures market pay to hold their positions. In most cases, a falling figure indicates that traders anticipate the price will be lower.
Shiba Inu’s burn rate has dropped substantially in the past few days. It fell by over 99% on Thursday to just 483 coins, worth less than $1 were burned in the last 24 hours.
The biggest risk that SHIB faces is that it has now major catalyst that may push it higher. In addition to the falling burn rate, Shibarium’s activity has dwindled, with its total value locked falling to $856,000.
Shiba Inu Coin price technical analysis
The three-day chart shows that the SHIB price has dropped sharply in the past few months. It has constantly formed a series of lower lows and is now hovering at its lowest level since 2023.
The coin has tumbled below all moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index has formed a descending channel. It also remains below the Supertrend indicator.
Therefore, the most likely SHIB price is bearish as demand remains thin. This crash may have it move to the next key support at $0.00000050.
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