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Kalshi adds trade surveillance amid $36B lawsuit

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Kalshi faces $54M lawsuit over Khamenei prediction market

Kalshi has partnered with compliance technology provider Comply to help financial firms monitor employee activity on prediction markets as the platform expands its institutional business while fighting a multibillion-dollar lawsuit in New York.

Summary

  • Comply clients will be able to monitor employee trades placed through Kalshi’s prediction markets.
  • The tools aim to detect possible trading based on material non-public information.
  • Kalshi plans to extend the monitoring system to its proposed perpetual futures products.
  • New York is seeking at least $36 billion from Kalshi in a separate lawsuit.

Kalshi adds employee trade surveillance

The partnership will integrate Kalshi trading data into Comply’s regulatory software, according to CNBC. Financial firms using the compliance platform will be able to track whether employees are trading event contracts and determine if those positions comply with internal policies.

The monitoring tools are designed to help employers identify suspicious activity, including trades that may involve material non-public information. Companies can also use the system to enforce restrictions on contracts linked to events that employees could influence or know about before the public.

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Kalshi already operates an internal market surveillance program. However, conversations with institutional clients showed that firms wanted direct access to employee trading data through the compliance systems they already use.

The planned integration would place prediction market contracts alongside assets such as stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies that are routinely covered by workplace trading controls. Kalshi also expects the system to monitor its planned perpetual futures products once those contracts become available.

Why compliance matters for prediction markets

Employee monitoring could address a major concern for banks, asset managers and other regulated financial firms considering prediction market exposure. Event contracts can cover elections, economic data, corporate developments and other outcomes that may involve sensitive information.

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Traditional financial firms generally require employees to disclose brokerage accounts and receive approval for certain trades. Applying similar controls to prediction markets could make it easier for those companies to permit limited participation without creating an unmonitored source of regulatory risk.

The partnership also gives Kalshi a way to present its contracts as regulated financial products rather than conventional bets. Chief Executive Tarek Mansour recently compared the company’s structure to Nasdaq while defending its business during an Aug. 3 CNBC interview.

However, stronger private surveillance does not settle the wider legal debate over whether certain event contracts fall under federal derivatives rules or state gambling laws. That dispute has become central to Kalshi’s expansion in the United States.

Kalshi faces $36B New York lawsuit

New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi on July 31, seeking at least $36 billion in damages, penalties and other relief. Mansour said the state’s allegations could threaten the broader event contract industry.

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Kalshi removed the proceeding from state court to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York shortly after the complaint was filed.

New York Supreme Court Justice Melissa A. Crane then treated the state’s request for a preliminary injunction as moot because the case was no longer before her court, according to records shared by gaming law attorney Daniel Wallach. The procedural decision did not dismiss or reject the state’s allegations.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also sought federal court intervention to prevent state enforcement against federally registered prediction market operators. Meanwhile, court disputes involving sports event contracts continue to test where federal oversight ends and state gaming authority begins.

Santos case shows surveillance stakes

Kalshi’s monitoring push follows a CFTC settlement involving former U.S. Representative George Santos. Regulators found that Santos made misleading public statements while holding contracts tied to whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.

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Under a July 31 order, Santos agreed to return $17,569.98 in trading gains, pay a $17,500 civil penalty and accept a three-year ban from trading through CFTC-registered entities. He neither admitted nor denied the agency’s findings or legal conclusions.

Kalshi referred Santos’ activity to regulators, showing how platform surveillance can lead to federal enforcement. The Comply partnership would extend part of that oversight to employers, giving institutional clients another way to detect conflicts before they develop into regulatory cases.

The rollout comes as Kalshi seeks approval for additional derivatives products. Its ability to attract financial firms will likely depend on both the effectiveness of its compliance tools and the outcome of legal challenges over prediction markets in the U.S.

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Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) Appeal Mandate Issued, Only One Strand of Hope Left

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Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, Shattering Fragile Ceasefire

The SBF appeal mandate issued on August 4 closes Sam Bankman-Fried’s (SBF) case at the Second Circuit appeals court. The one-page order affirms the judgment and adds no new reasoning.

A mandate returns a case to the trial court and makes an appellate ruling fully effective. This one leaves the former FTX chief’s 25-year prison term in place.

What the SBF Appeal Mandate Actually Says

The US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit logged it as entry 77 in case No. 24-961. It names the three judges who heard the appeal, Barrington D. Parker, Eunice C. Lee and Maria Araújo Kahn.

Then comes the operative line. The court “ORDERED, ADJUDGED and DECREED that the judgment of the district court is AFFIRMED.”

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Nothing else is decided. Catherine O’Hagan Wolfe, clerk of court, signed it for the panel. A stamp at the foot records the mandate issuing on 08/04/2026.

Why the June Ruling Still Governs

The substance landed almost two months earlier. On June 12, the panel rejected the FTX founder’s appeal and left the seven-count conviction intact. It also kept the sentence Judge Lewis Kaplan imposed in March 2024.

Parker wrote for the panel, describing what the jury had heard.

“While he was publicly reassuring customers, investors and regulators that FTX customer funds were safe, he was simultaneously using FTX as his own personal piggy bank, spending customer funds on real estate, political contributions and investments,” Barrington D. Parker, Circuit Judge, Second Circuit opinion.

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The panel also upheld the roughly $11 billion forfeiture, finding Congress may tie forfeiture to a defendant’s gains. Kaplan had already denied a retrial motion in April.

The One Strand Left

Only one judicial route survives. Bankman-Fried may petition the US Supreme Court for a writ of certiorari, generally within 90 days of judgment. The court hears a small fraction of such petitions.

He has separately filed a pardon application with the Justice Department. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Ruben Gallego have since introduced a resolution opposing any SBF pardon.

Meanwhile, the money moves on a separate track. FTX creditors received a fifth round of repayments at the end of July. The mandate settles the appellate question, and what the Supreme Court makes of it is the only one still open.

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SpaceX Stock Could 3x by Friday, a $20 Million Options Trade Shows

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SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Performance

A $20 million options trade pays off only if SpaceX stock nearly triples by Friday. More than 450,000 contracts sit at a $330 strike before Tuesday’s earnings.

That price sits almost three times (3x) above where the stock trades now. Options analysts doubt small investors built the position, and point to a bank instead.

Who Is Behind the $20 Million SpaceX Options Trade

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) changed hands near $124 on Tuesday afternoon, up by over 8% on the day. The company priced its June 12 offering at $135, according to its prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Performance
SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Performance. Source: Yahoo Finance

SpaceX has never traded anywhere near $330. Its record high is $225.64, and the median analyst target sits at $225. The strike clears both by about 46%.

The $330 line expiring August 7 holds at least seven times the open interest of the next busiest contract, CNBC reported. Those contracts control 45 million shares, worth roughly $14.8 billion if the stock ever reached the strike.

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That is about 7% of a public float of only 639 million shares. Brent Kochuba founded options-flow platform SpotGamma. He said the buying pattern matches neither hedge funds nor market makers nor small investors.

“My guess is that banks own these calls as a hedge, maybe against some kind of structured product or some other short exposure they have.”

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SpotGamma figures cited by CNBC put Monday’s buying at about 90,000 contracts for $2.2 million. Because the calls grew cheaper as the stock fell below its IPO price, the accumulated premium reaches near $20 million.

LDER — Open interest by strike for the SpaceX options chain expiring Aug. 7, showing a 450,000-contract spike at $330
Open interest by strike for the SpaceX options chain expiring Aug. 7, showing a 450,000-contract spike at $330, Source: OptionCharts

What Traders Expect From SpaceX Stock After Earnings

SpaceX reports after Tuesday’s close, its first results since the June listing. Traders have already mapped the top earnings scenarios investors are weighing.

Contracts on the August 7 expiry price a swing of about $20.30, or 16.57%. That implies a band of $102.17 to $142.77. The strike sits 131% above the top of it.

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CNBC put the earnings-specific move at 14%. Against a market value near $1.5 trillion, one print could move roughly $207 billion of shareholder value.

Implied volatility near 133 keeps even distant strikes liquid, according to ThinkOrSwim data cited by CNBC. Volatility usually cools once results clear.

Here it may not. The insider lockup opens Thursday, freeing roughly 911.5 million shares, more than the entire float. Meta’s 2012 lockup crash remains the closest precedent.

Jay Pestrichelli is chief trading officer at Tidal Financial Group, which manages more than $60 billion across 420-plus exchange-traded funds. He argued the calls can turn profitable well before the strike, putting that zone near $215 by Wednesday morning.

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“It’s not a speculative moon shot … you don’t buy the highest strike in the chain unless you’re trying to reduce the cost of a hedge.”

SpaceX options expected move chart for the Aug. 7 expiry, showing a $102.17 to $142.77 range against a $122.47 spot price
SpaceX options expected move chart for the Aug. 7 expiry, showing a $102.17 to $142.77 range against a $123.69 spot price, Source: OptionCharts

Even $215 would leave SpaceX short of its own record. Whether the $330 line was cheap insurance or a real directional trade should resolve by Friday. That lands one day after the float more than doubles.

The post SpaceX Stock Could 3x by Friday, a $20 Million Options Trade Shows appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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ARK Invest buys $9.4M in Coinbase and Circle stock

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Circle daily chart shows CRCL rebounding to $62.56 but remaining below all major moving averages.

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bought about $9.4 million worth of Coinbase and Circle shares on Aug. 3 as the U.S. Senate considered its next steps on the CLARITY Act.

Summary

  • ARK Invest purchased 54,776 Coinbase shares worth about $8.02 million across three ETFs.
  • Two ARK funds added 23,070 Circle shares valued at roughly $1.39 million.
  • Coinbase rebounded to $149.12, but bearish momentum and resistance near $157 remain.
  • Senate leaders have listed the CLARITY Act as a priority, though no floor vote is scheduled.

ARK Invest adds $8 million in Coinbase shares

ARK Invest spread its Coinbase purchase across three exchange-traded funds, according to the firm’s latest trade disclosure.

The ARK Innovation ETF bought 38,761 Coinbase shares, making it the largest buyer among the three funds. Based on Coinbase’s Aug. 3 closing price of $146.50, the transaction was worth approximately $5.68 million.

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ARK’s Next Generation Internet ETF added another 11,133 shares valued at about $1.63 million. The ARK Fintech Innovation ETF purchased 4,882 shares worth roughly $715,000.

Combined, the three ETFs acquired 54,776 Coinbase shares for approximately $8.02 million.

Coinbase closed the Aug. 3 session 0.16% higher. The purchase expanded ARK’s exposure to one of the largest publicly traded U.S. cryptocurrency exchanges while the broader digital asset market remained under pressure.

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Circle purchase lifts ARK’s combined investment to $9.4 million

ARK also added shares of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group through two of its funds.

The ARK Innovation ETF purchased 17,910 Circle shares valued at approximately $1.08 million based on the stock’s $60.35 closing price. The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF bought another 5,160 shares worth about $311,000.

Those transactions brought ARK’s total Circle purchase to 23,070 shares, valued at roughly $1.39 million. Together with the Coinbase trades, ARK spent approximately $9.42 million on the two crypto-related stocks.

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Circle fell 3.61% on Aug. 3 despite ARK’s purchase. Its shares have been consolidating near their recent lows after a prolonged decline from levels above $130.

The daily chart showed Circle rebounding to $62.56 on Aug. 4, up 3.66% during the session. However, the stock remained below its 20-day simple moving average at $63.73 and well below its 50-day average at $75.55.

Circle daily chart shows CRCL rebounding to $62.56 but remaining below all major moving averages.
Circle price daily chart | Source: TradingView

Circle’s Chaikin Money Flow reading improved to 0.03, indicating slightly positive capital flow. A sustained close above $63.73 could strengthen the short-term recovery, while the $60 area remains an immediate support zone.

Coinbase and Circle stocks face technical resistance

Coinbase traded at $149.12 on Aug. 4, gaining 1.78% after recovering from an intraday low of $145.60. The rebound followed a recent test of the $139.25 support level.

Coinbase daily chart shows COIN bouncing from $139 support to $149 as momentum remains bearish.
Coinbase price daily chart | Source: TradingView

However, the stock remained below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $156.99. That level represents the first major barrier to a broader recovery, followed by resistance at $170.93.

Coinbase’s relative strength index stood at 42.44, below the neutral 50 level. Its moving average convergence divergence indicator also remained bearish, with the MACD line below its signal line and the histogram in negative territory.

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The readings suggest that buyers have defended the recent low but have not yet reversed the broader bearish momentum. A break below $139.25 would weaken the setup, while a close above $156.99 could open a move toward $170.93.

CLARITY Act remains absent from Senate schedule

ARK’s purchases came as Senate leaders continued discussions over the CLARITY Act, a proposed framework for dividing oversight of the U.S. digital asset market between federal regulators.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune included crypto market structure among the chamber’s remaining priorities before its August recess.

“We have a bunch of stuff that we have to finish, and we’ll just stay here until we finish it,” Thune said.

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On the bill’s prospects, he added, “I think market structure we’ll get a vote on. Whether we can get on it or not, we’ll see.”

Despite those remarks, the CLARITY Act has not appeared on the Senate’s official floor schedule. The chamber has scheduled action on H.R. 6500, while no motion to proceed with H.R. 3633 has been announced.

Analyst Ted Pillows said a cloture filing on Wednesday would likely push the earliest possible vote to Friday. That leaves lawmakers with a narrow procedural window before the recess, while Coinbase and Circle investors await greater clarity on the bill’s prospects.

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XRP Ledger RWA Holders Jump 25% As Ripple Expands Tokenization Drive

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Crypto Breaking News

The XRP Ledger recorded a sharp rise in real-world asset holders as Ripple expanded its tokenization strategy. RWA holder numbers increased 25.16% during the past month, reflecting stronger activity across the network. However, the blockchain’s stablecoin market remained under pressure despite modest growth in participating addresses.

XRP Ledger RWA Holders Rise 25%

The XRP Ledger’s RWA ecosystem gained more holders as tokenized finance attracted additional users and businesses. Data showed a 25.16% monthly increase in addresses holding tokenized real-world assets on XRPL. This growth strengthened the network’s position within the expanding blockchain-based asset market.

Real-world assets represent physical or traditional financial products recorded and managed through blockchain technology. These assets can include bonds, property, commodities, funds, and private credit products. Tokenization can simplify ownership transfers while improving settlement speed and access to financial markets.

XRPL supports tokenized assets through fast settlement, low transaction costs, and built-in exchange functions. These features allow companies to issue, move, and trade assets without relying on multiple external systems. Consequently, the network has become a practical option for institutions exploring blockchain-based financial products.

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Ripple Expands XRPL Tokenization Infrastructure

Ripple recently invested in two major companies to expand infrastructure supporting institutional tokenization on the XRP Ledger. The investments form part of Ripple’s broader plan to bring more financial assets onto blockchain networks. They also support tools needed for custody, settlement, compliance, issuance, and secondary market activity.

Ripple has increased its focus on capital markets as institutions explore tokenized funds and other digital financial products. The company aims to position XRPL as a reliable network for enterprise payments and asset management. Therefore, Ripple continues to add partnerships and services that connect traditional finance with blockchain infrastructure.

More than 1,000 developers and businesses now build products and services across the XRP Ledger ecosystem. These participants support payments, token issuance, decentralized trading, custody, compliance, and institutional settlement services. Their activity broadens XRPL’s utility beyond XRP transfers and strengthens its role in digital finance.

XRPL has operated for more than a decade and uses a consensus system without traditional mining. The network processes transactions within seconds and charges relatively low fees for transfers. These features have supported Ripple’s efforts to promote the ledger for cross-border payments and tokenized assets.

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XRPL Stablecoin Market Remains Below Peak

Despite the RWA holder increase, the XRP Ledger’s stablecoin market recorded another decline during the month. Stablecoin market capitalization fell 9.04% and reached approximately $901.4 million. The decrease showed that holder growth has not yet produced a wider recovery in stablecoin value.

However, the number of stablecoin holders increased 0.92% during the same 30-day period. More than 60,240 addresses held stablecoins on XRPL after the monthly increase. This change suggests that participation expanded slightly even as the total market value declined.

Stablecoins support payments, trading, settlement, and liquidity across tokenized financial markets. Ripple also uses RLUSD to strengthen its payment and institutional product ecosystem. The dollar-backed asset operates on both the XRP Ledger and Ethereum, which extends its reach.

A stronger stablecoin market could improve liquidity for tokenized assets issued through the XRP Ledger. Stablecoins allow users to settle trades without moving funds through traditional banking systems. Therefore, their adoption could support Ripple’s wider institutional finance strategy and encourage more activity across XRPL.

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The latest figures show uneven growth across the XRP Ledger’s expanding tokenization market. RWA holders increased quickly, while stablecoin capitalization continued to fall during the same period. Ripple’s infrastructure push now provides the main foundation for further adoption across both sectors.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Coldcard urges users to move bitcoin as active wallet exploit continues

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Major bitcoin wallet flaw drains 594 BTC in 25-minute sweep

The risk, which remains until users take action, is confined to specific devices and firmware. Owners of the Mk3, Coldcard’s 2019 model, should move their funds now if the wallet was set up on firmware 4.0.1 or later. Mk4, Mk5 and Q owners on firmware below 5.6.0 or 1.5.0Q should update, create a new wallet and then move their coins across.

Coinkite has said the exception is anyone who used the device’s dice option, where a user physically rolls dice at least 50 times and types in the results, and the wallet builds its key from those numbers instead of generating its own. Those wallets never touched the broken code and are safe.

A seed is the master key controlling a wallet’s coins, so one produced with too little randomness, or entropy, can be guessed and regenerated by an attacker, who can then drain the wallet without ever touching the device.

Vincent Bouzon, cybersecurity expert at Ledger, which makes competing hardware wallets, said the incident was a failure of one implementation rather than a verdict on self-custody.

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“Every wallet ultimately depends on a root secret generated from high-quality entropy,” Bouzon told CoinDesk in an email, adding that the generation of that entropy “must be anchored in secure hardware, with an architecture that cannot silently downgrade to an untrusted software-based source.”

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Ethereum proposal could end staking rewards at 50%

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Ethereum proposal could end staking rewards at 50%

Ethereum researchers have proposed a new issuance model that would gradually burn validator rewards and reduce them to zero once about half of ETH’s supply is staked.

Summary

  • EIP-8361 would burn a growing share of validator rewards as Ethereum’s staking ratio increases.
  • Rewards would reach zero near 60.25 million staked ETH, equal to roughly half the current supply.
  • The draft proposes an 18-month transition period to limit abrupt changes in validator yields.
  • EIP-8361 remains under community review and has not been approved for an Ethereum upgrade.

EIP-8361 would taper Ethereum staking rewards

Ethereum researchers Jérôme de Tychey, Justin Drake, dapplion, pintail, pa7x1, and Ladislaus von Daniels submitted EIP-8361 as a draft Core Ethereum Improvement Proposal.

Called Tapered Issuance Burn, the mechanism would destroy part of the rewards validators receive for attestations, proposing blocks, and participating in sync committees. The share burned would rise alongside the proportion of ETH committed to staking.

The burn rate would eventually reach 100% when about 60.25 million ETH is staked. Based on Ethereum’s current circulating supply of about 120.7 million ETH, that level represents close to 50% of all ETH. CoinMarketCap data placed the circulating supply at roughly 120.68 million ETH at the time of writing.

As a result, validators would no longer receive consensus-layer issuance rewards after staking reaches the proposed threshold. They could still earn other forms of revenue, including transaction priority fees and maximal extractable value.

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Why Ethereum researchers want to change issuance

EIP-8361 seeks to remove what its authors describe as a permanent incentive for more ETH to enter staking, even when additional deposits may provide limited security benefits.

“The current issuance curve continues offering a yield of around 1.5% even if nearly all ETH is staked,” the authors wrote.

They added that “the remaining yield floor provides no point at which issuance stops encouraging additional staking.”

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Under the draft model, annual ETH issuance would peak at approximately 0.5% of supply when the staking ratio reaches about 20%. Issuance would then decline as more ETH enters staking before reaching zero near the 50% threshold.

Ethereum’s staking ratio has already exceeded one-third of its supply. The proposal estimates that more than 70 million ETH could be staked by January 2028 if demand continues under the existing reward structure.

Transition would protect validator yields initially

The researchers proposed an 18-month transition rather than applying the permanent reward curve at once.

Ethereum’s base reward factor would initially rise from 64 to 128 before gradually returning to its current level. The temporary adjustment is intended to keep validator yields near their existing range during the early phase before the tapered burn becomes more restrictive.

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For US validators and staking service providers, the proposal could change the economics of operating Ethereum infrastructure if developers eventually include it in a network upgrade. Lower issuance rewards could affect expected returns, although the draft would not alter US tax or securities rules governing staking.

The plan also follows a separate Ethereum research proposal reported by crypto.news in June. That mechanism, known as validator redirected revenue, would allow validators to direct between 0% and 10% of their staking income toward ecosystem funding.

Under that proposal, contributions would become mandatory if 51% of validators supported a redirect rate above zero. Its authors argued that shared funding could help pay for research, security, and public tools used across Ethereum.

EIP-8361 still faces community review

EIP-8361 is a draft and does not automatically change Ethereum’s monetary policy. It must move through technical review, community debate, and developer coordination before it can be considered for a future network upgrade.

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The proposal has already drawn concerns that less predictable yields could affect solo validators, institutional staking operations, and decentralized finance strategies built around staked ETH.

ETH showed no clear reaction tied to the draft. The token traded near $1,878, up about 0.5% over 24 hours, with approximately $7.86 billion in trading volume at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap.

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BNY to add crypto staking to digital asset custody platform

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BNY investments’ short-dated bond strategy tokenized by Bermuda-regulated OpenEden

BNY has tapped crypto financial services firm Galaxy (GLXY) to add staking capabilities to its digital asset custody platform, the companies announced Tuesday.

The new service will allow institutional clients to stake digital assets held in custody through BNY’s platform, pending regulatory approval. Galaxy will provide the staking infrastructure while also serving as a design partner as BNY expands its blockchain-based services.

Staking allows holders of certain crypto assets to help secure blockchain networks by locking up their tokens in exchange for rewards. For large investors, offering staking through the same platform that holds their assets removes the need to transfer tokens to a separate provider.

BNY, formerly known as Bank of New York Mellon, has steadily expanded its digital asset business since launching crypto custody services in 2022. The bank oversees tens of trillions of dollars in assets under custody and administration, making its moves into blockchain infrastructure closely watched across the financial industry.

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The financial services firm recently said it was shifting its core transfer agency record-keeping onto blockchain technology, creating a single onchain ownership ledger that it said will reduce reliance on multiple intermediaries. It also plans to introduce around-the-clock settlement for traditional and tokenized U.S. Treasuries in 2027 and begin testing tokenized Treasuries on a private blockchain before the end of this year.

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Dogecoin price eyes $0.076 as SpaceX stock jumps before earnings

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Dogecoin daily chart shows DOGE consolidating near $0.070, with resistance at $0.07273 and support around $0.06778.

Dogecoin price traded near $0.070 as SPCX stock extended its rebound ahead of SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company.

Summary

  • Dogecoin price traded at $0.07035, with daily momentum remaining weak but stable.
  • SPCX climbed 4.6% to $119.71, recovering from its early August low.
  • DOGE must clear $0.07273–$0.07398 to strengthen its short-term recovery.
  • SpaceX earnings and an approaching insider-share unlock could drive further volatility.

Dogecoin price holds near $0.070

According to data from crypto.news, Dogecoin (DOGE) price was trading at $0.07035 at the time of writing, remaining near the lower end of its three-month range. The meme coin has stabilized after falling from a May peak above $0.117, but the daily chart has yet to confirm a sustained bullish reversal.

Dogecoin daily chart shows DOGE consolidating near $0.070, with resistance at $0.07273 and support around $0.06778.
Dogecoin price daily chart | Source: crypto.news

DOGE is trading below the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day midpoint at $0.07122. The level represents the first barrier buyers must reclaim before challenging the upper band at $0.07398.

The daily Relative Strength Index stood at 43.09, slightly above its moving average of 40.42. The reading shows that momentum has improved but remains below the neutral 50 mark, leaving sellers with a modest advantage.

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Dogecoin’s immediate price action is unfolding alongside a broader crypto market recovery. Bitcoin traded around $63,400, while Ethereum hovered near $1,840. However, DOGE’s gains remained limited as traders waited for a stronger catalyst.

SpaceX earnings put Musk-linked assets in focus

SpaceX is scheduled to release its second-quarter results after the U.S. market closes on Tuesday. Management will hold an audio webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET, according to the company’s investor announcement.

The report will be SpaceX’s first since its June initial public offering. Investors are expected to focus on Starlink subscriber growth, Starship spending and the financial impact of the company’s artificial intelligence operations.

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Analysts expect SpaceX to report about $6.8 billion in quarterly revenue and a loss of roughly $0.23 per share, according to Yahoo Finance. Market estimates vary, with some forecasts pointing to a quarterly net loss of between $1.55 billion and $1.9 billion.

Options pricing implied that SpaceX shares could move about 15% in either direction after the report, potentially changing the company’s valuation by approximately $225 billion, Reuters reported.

Dogecoin has no direct financial link to SpaceX earnings. However, both assets remain connected through market sentiment surrounding Elon Musk. This association can attract speculative DOGE trading when Musk-owned companies dominate U.S. market attention, though it does not guarantee a corresponding price move.

Dogecoin price must break $0.07398

The daily chart places DOGE’s first significant resistance at $0.07273, corresponding to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of its decline from $0.09092 to $0.06778.

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A daily close above that level would expose the upper Bollinger Band at $0.07398. Buyers would then need to break $0.07662, the 61.8% Fibonacci level, to establish a more convincing recovery.

Continued momentum above $0.07662 could open a move toward $0.07935. The next resistance levels would stand at $0.08208 and $0.08546, although DOGE would require stronger volume and an RSI move above 50 to support that scenario.

On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band sits at $0.06847. A loss of that level could return DOGE to the $0.06778 range low.

Breaking below $0.06778 would invalidate the immediate rebound and extend the bearish structure that has controlled the daily chart since May.

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SPCX stock tests $119 Fibonacci resistance

SPCX stock traded at $119.71 on the 4-hour chart after gaining 4.6%. Shares rebounded from a low near $105 and moved back above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $119.34.

SpaceX 4-hour chart shows SPCX rebounding to $119.71 while testing Fibonacci resistance near $119.34.
SPCX price 4-hour chart | Source: TradingView

Holding above $119.34 would allow buyers to challenge the 4-hour Supertrend resistance at $124.15. A confirmed break above the Supertrend could shift the short-term signal and place $130.67 in focus.

Further resistance stands at $138.63 and $146.58. However, the broader chart remains bearish after SPCX declined from $172.34 in early July and from its June high above $220.

The Awesome Oscillator remained negative at minus 10.40, showing that bearish momentum has not fully disappeared. Its rising bars nevertheless indicate that downward pressure is easing as the stock rebounds.

Failure to hold $119.34 could send SPCX back toward $114 and $110. The primary technical floor remains near $104.91.

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Earnings and share unlock could increase volatility

SpaceX’s earnings will not be the only event affecting the stock. An IPO lockup is due to expire on Aug. 6, potentially allowing insiders and early investors to sell up to 911.5 million shares, according to Business Insider.

That incoming supply could limit an earnings-driven rally or deepen a decline if SpaceX misses market expectations. Strong Starlink growth, improved margins or clearer spending guidance could instead help SPCX hold its recovery.

For Dogecoin, the technical picture remains neutral-to-bearish while the price stays below $0.07273. SpaceX earnings may lift trading interest around Musk-linked assets, but DOGE still needs a confirmed breakout above $0.07398 to turn that attention into a stronger price recovery.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Why Visa, Mastercard and Coinbase aren’t abandoning USDC stablecoin for Open USD

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Circle (CRCL) may rally another 60% driven by stablecoin adoption, AI agentic finance: Bernstein

Recent earnings calls from Open USD’s highest-profile backers, however, paint a more nuanced picture. Executives at Coinbase, Visa and Mastercard all said they intend to support multiple stablecoins instead of betting on a single winner, describing Open USD as another network to connect to rather than a replacement for USDC.

Multi-coin strategy

During its second-quarter earnings call last week, Coinbase reassured investors about its close relationship with Circle. Chief Financial Officer Alesia Haas said the exchange has already met the conditions to renew its commercial agreement with Circle and will continue growing the USDC ecosystem.

CEO Brian Armstrong also said Coinbase remains a “multi-stablecoin platform” and wants to support whichever stablecoins customers choose to use. The exchange already supports USDC alongside Tether’s USDT and PayPal’s PYUSD, he said, with Open USD creating “additional business opportunities and revenue opportunities.”

Ryan McInerney, CEO of Visa, struck a similar tone during his firm’s earnings call, describing the company as “multi-coin, multi-chain” and saying that Visa’s role is to help clients connect to whichever stablecoins gain adoption.

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“Our role is not to pick winners,” he said.

Notably, Visa offered the first live example of pushing Open USD to customers. The firm last month launched its Visa Stablecoin Platform, giving banks, fintechs and payment providers tools to access, store, redeem and move stablecoins, with OUSD serving as the initial supported token.

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Crypto World

Bybit secures Austria EMI license for EU payments

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Bybit named to Fortune Crypto 100 as it accelerates its vision for the new financial platform

Bybit has secured an Electronic Money Institution license in Austria, allowing its local payments subsidiary to offer regulated electronic money and payment services across the European Union.

Summary

  • Austria’s FMA granted Bybit Payments GmbH an EMI license on Aug. 4.
  • The license covers electronic money issuance and several regulated payment services.
  • Bybit EU GmbH will continue handling crypto services under its separate MiCA authorization.
  • Bybit plans to add payment cards, open banking and merchant services, subject to approval.

Bybit gains approval for regulated EU payments

Austria’s Financial Market Authority granted the license to Bybit Payments GmbH on Aug. 4 under the country’s E-Money Act 2010.

The authorization allows the Vienna-based company to issue electronic money and provide payment services under Austria’s Payment Services Act 2018. Those permissions cover incoming and outgoing payments, payment transactions, and issuing and acquiring payment instruments, according to the FMA’s licensing notice.

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Bybit said the license gives its payments subsidiary a regulated foundation for expanding financial services across Europe through Bybit.eu.

“Europe is setting the global benchmark for how digital assets and financial services can evolve together under clear regulation,” said Georg Harer, managing director of Bybit EU GmbH and Bybit Payments GmbH.

Harer said the EMI license and Bybit’s existing Markets in Crypto-Assets authorization create complementary regulatory foundations for crypto assets, payments and other financial services.

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Bybit keeps payments and crypto services separate

Bybit Payments GmbH will operate independently from Bybit EU GmbH, the entity responsible for the exchange’s crypto-asset services under MiCA.

Customers will be able to access both service categories through Bybit.eu, but each subsidiary will remain responsible only for activities covered by its respective authorization. The structure allows Bybit to offer a unified interface without combining its payment and crypto operations under one regulatory permission.

“This licence enables Bybit Payments GmbH to build regulated payment capabilities that complement the crypto-asset services offered by Bybit EU GmbH,” said Bernhard Krick, managing director of Bybit Payments GmbH.

Krick added that preserving a clear distinction between the two entities is essential because each company must remain within its approved regulatory scope.

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The arrangement reflects the division between electronic money regulation and crypto-asset supervision in Europe. An EMI license covers fiat-linked payment activities, while a MiCA authorization governs services such as crypto trading, custody and transfers.

License opens path to cards and open banking

Bybit said its payments unit could eventually introduce person-to-person transfers, electronic money products and Strong Customer Authentication features. The company is also considering open banking tools, merchant payment services and payment cards.

Those offerings remain subject to further regulatory requirements and product approvals. Bybit did not provide a launch schedule or specify which European markets would receive the services first.

The authorization gives the exchange another regulated entry point as it expands through locally supervised subsidiaries. In July, Bybit launched a domestic platform in Indonesia after acquiring a majority stake in PT Enkripsi Teknologi Handal, previously known as NOBI.

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The acquisition established Bybit Indonesia as a local entity supervised by Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority, known as the OJK. Its rollout began with plans to support more than 500 trading pairs while using Bybit’s global liquidity and locally required market controls.

EU framework contrasts with US crypto rules

The Austrian approval does not extend Bybit.eu services to customers in the United States. European financial licenses generally apply within the European Economic Area and do not replace federal or state approvals required for serving US customers.

However, the expansion shows how MiCA and existing European payment laws can provide separate but coordinated regulatory routes for crypto trading and fiat payment services.

The US has no direct equivalent to MiCA’s single regional framework. Crypto companies offering payment services may instead face a combination of federal obligations and state-by-state money transmitter licensing requirements.

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Bybit’s next step will be converting its Austrian authorization into consumer-facing payment products. Its ability to launch cards, merchant tools and open banking services will depend on regulatory clearances, technical integration and the markets selected for the initial rollout.

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