The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has invoked emergency authority to keep prediction market operator Kalshi running, arguing that New York’s efforts to restrain the platform amount to a market emergency. In an order issued Tuesday, the regulator said the federal government must ensure continuity in derivatives markets and prevent a “patchwork” of state rules from disrupting national price discovery.

The move keeps Kalshi operating while a separate legal fight continues over whether federal law—specifically the Commodity Exchange Act—preempts state gambling enforcement when event contracts are traded on federally regulated venues.

Key takeaways

• The CFTC ordered Kalshi to continue operating, citing an emergency created by New York’s request for a temporary restraining order.
• New York argues Kalshi is operating an illegal, unlicensed gambling business tied to sports, elections, culture, and other events, seeking substantial damages.
• The CFTC says the Commodity Exchange Act requires a uniform national derivatives market and gives it exclusive jurisdiction over certain transactions involving swaps on designated contract markets.
• The dispute is ongoing and does not resolve whether federal law preempts New York’s gambling enforcement.
• The CFTC said it is litigating similar jurisdictional questions beyond New York, including cases involving eight other states.

CFTC emergency order keeps Kalshi live

In the order, the CFTC said New York’s enforcement action and the state’s request for a temporary restraining order together triggered what the agency characterized as a market emergency. The regulator directed Kalshi to keep operating under its normal practices and in line with the Commodity Exchange Act’s core principles.

Importantly, the CFTC emphasized continuity in trading. It argued that major disruptions can undermine orderly markets and impede price discovery—especially in derivatives markets meant to function as a cohesive national system.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig said Congress did not intend derivatives exchanges to face a fragmented set of state gaming rules. The commission tied its emergency authority to concerns that a state-by-state approach could destabilize federal derivatives oversight.

New York’s restraining order seeks nationwide operational limits

New York’s request, as described by the CFTC, would bar Kalshi from operating in connection with contracts tied to sports, culture, elections, and other events in or from New York or directed to people in the state. The CFTC warned that because Kalshi is based in New York, the restrictions could effectively prevent the platform from offering all event contracts nationwide.

According to the CFTC, New York is seeking at least $36 billion in compensatory damages pending an accounting. The underlying state lawsuit, filed July 31, alleges Kalshi runs an illegal, unlicensed gambling business through its event-linked contracts. New York seeks restitution, disgorgement, damages, and penalties, including a penalty equal to three times Kalshi’s alleged gains and $100,000 for each unauthorized sports wagering offer or attempt in New York.

New York’s case reflects a broader theory that state gambling law applies to prediction-market style contracts—an issue that has become a central legal battleground for the emerging event-contract space.

Federal preemption and the jurisdiction fight

Kalshi has argued that states cannot shut down a federally licensed exchange. The CFTC, by contrast, maintains that the Commodity Exchange Act gives it exclusive jurisdiction over transactions involving swaps traded on designated contract markets, including event contracts that Kalshi lists as swaps.

This is not a new legal question. In a separate New York case, a federal judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction on July 7. At that stage, the judge found that New York gambling laws were not preempted by the Commodity Exchange Act as applied to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts.

Previously, the CFTC also sued New York in federal court in April, seeking to block the state from applying its gambling laws to CFTC-registered contract markets. In that earlier action, Judge Jed Rakoff denied without prejudice the agency’s emergency request for a temporary restraining order. The court found the CFTC had not shown a high likelihood of success on the merits or a likelihood of irreparable harm.

While Tuesday’s order directs Kalshi to continue operating, it does not decide the underlying jurisdictional dispute. The CFTC itself characterized the order as separate from a final judicial determination on whether federal law preempts state enforcement.

A nationwide regulatory dispute across multiple states

The Kalshi controversy is also being framed by the CFTC as part of a broader effort to defend federally granted authority. The agency said in its order that it has sued eight other states in addition to New York to protect what it views as congressionally granted jurisdiction.

That means the outcome of the Kalshi litigation could carry implications beyond a single company. If courts ultimately endorse the CFTC’s preemption theory, state regulators may face tighter limits when attempting to apply gambling statutes to event contracts traded on designated contract markets. If courts reject that position, enforcement could become more decentralized, potentially pushing operators to navigate divergent state regimes.

For market participants—exchanges, traders, and institutions—the practical stakes are straightforward: disruptions to listings, contract availability, or trading access can directly affect liquidity and price formation. The CFTC’s focus on “orderly trading and price discovery” suggests the regulator is trying to prevent a compliance or shutdown cascade while the legal questions play out.

For Kalshi and similarly structured platforms, the key uncertainty remains judicial. Tuesday’s CFTC order preserves operations in the short term, but it does not substitute for a court ruling on the scope of federal preemption versus state gambling enforcement.

Readers should watch next for how courts handle the preemption question on the merits and whether any additional federal or state rulings narrow (or expand) what event-contract platforms can offer during the litigation. The emergency posture may keep the platform running for now, but the core jurisdictional disagreement is still unresolved.

Strategy CEO Phong Le says the firm plans to resume adding Bitcoin later this year, even after recent asset sales that have triggered renewed scrutiny from investors and market observers.

In a Monday interview with FOX Business, Le said Strategy purchased about 175,000 BTC since the start of the year while selling roughly 7,000 BTC, describing the activity as “about 25 times more” buying than selling. He also said Strategy has moved from being the world’s second-largest institutional Bitcoin holder to the largest.

Key takeaways

• Strategy says it intends to restart accumulating Bitcoin later this year, after a year-to-date pattern of heavy net buying.
• According to Le, Strategy bought ~175,000 BTC since January and sold ~7,000 BTC year-to-date—netting a large imbalance toward accumulation.
• The company has sold Bitcoin on four occasions since May, with the latest reported sale totaling 1,690 BTC.
• BitcoinTreasuries.NET data suggests public companies collectively hold more BTC than exchange-traded products and other funds, but the treasury “premium” financing model is under strain.

A pledge to buy more, after sales drew questions

Le told FOX Business that Strategy expects to “get back to buying more Bitcoin throughout the course of the year.” That statement comes after the firm shifted part of its approach—at least temporarily—from its long-standing narrative of avoiding Bitcoin sales whenever possible.

While Strategy’s sales have remained small relative to its total stash, the decision to sell has been closely watched because it represents a departure from the “never sell” stance that helped establish its credibility with long-term Bitcoin-focused shareholders.

Strategy has accumulated more than 840,000 BTC, but it has reportedly sold Bitcoin on four occasions since May. The most recent sale, according to the interview context, totaled 1,690 BTC. Le’s broader argument appears to be that the company can still prioritize net accumulation while meeting other corporate obligations.

Why Strategy’s sales matter to investors

Even limited selling can have outsized signaling effects for a company built around a Bitcoin treasury strategy. The concern is not only about the immediate numbers, but about what the sales suggest regarding internal trade-offs.

The proceeds from Strategy’s recent Bitcoin sales have been used to support preferred stock dividends, share repurchases, and its U.S. dollar reserve. That mix highlights a core tension for any public company holding large BTC reserves: management must balance capital preservation and growth with shareholder payouts, equity-market expectations, and liquidity requirements.

Le’s “25 times more” framing underscores that Strategy’s year-to-date behavior still leans toward accumulation. However, the very fact that the company has made multiple sales since May suggests conditions have required more flexibility than the firm’s earlier messaging implied.

Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph noted that Strategy’s earlier capital and balance-sheet approach aimed to preserve Bitcoin exposure while also addressing returns to shareholders, including through a capital framework designed to fund dividends. The latest remarks reinforce that Strategy is trying to maintain that direction while navigating the pressures of public-company financing constraints.

The broader corporate treasury model faces a tougher environment

Strategy’s challenge fits into a larger pattern across the corporate Bitcoin treasury sector. Corporate holdings have continued to grow, but weaker market conditions make the traditional economics of the model harder to sustain.

According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, public companies hold more than 1.26 million BTC, while trailing exchange-traded funds and other funds hold more than 1.6 million BTC. The size of the holdings suggests institutional accumulation remains active, but it does not automatically solve the capital question that determines how quickly companies can keep buying.

NOVAQUE Research has previously described the financing cycle that powered rapid expansion: when Bitcoin treasury companies traded at premiums to the net asset value of their BTC holdings, they could raise capital through equity or debt and then deploy proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. That premium effectively reduced the dilution cost for shareholders because the market was valuing the companies above the value of their BTC.

In more difficult market regimes, that cycle becomes harder to maintain. When shares trade below net asset value, new fundraising can dilute existing holders more than it would in a premium environment—making continued aggressive accumulation financially less straightforward. Cointelegraph previously noted this shift in market dynamics in an analysis of how trade and holdings trends have changed for funds and BTC-holding entities.

What to watch next for Strategy

Strategy’s stated plan to resume accumulating Bitcoin later this year will likely be judged against two practical signals: whether future BTC purchases appear to outweigh any continued liquidity needs, and whether management’s willingness to sell—however small—persists as market conditions evolve. With the corporate treasury model sensitive to share-price-to-NAV dynamics, investors may also watch whether Strategy can keep access to capital on terms that don’t force meaningful dilution.

The euro and pound are holding their ground against the US dollar, although the momentum in European currencies has become more subdued following their previous gains. Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions ahead of the release of the July US inflation report, which could alter expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy. Recent labour market data is also encouraging caution: a weak ADP report and a decline in the ISM employment component have added to signs of a gradual cooling in the US labour market.

Today, the main focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to forecasts, annual inflation may slow to 3.4% from 3.5%, while monthly prices are expected to rise by 0.1% after falling 0.4% a month earlier. Core CPI is forecast at 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Weaker-than-expected figures could strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing by the Fed and put additional pressure on the dollar. If inflation comes in above forecasts or proves more persistent, the US currency could receive fresh support. Final inflation figures for Germany and Italy will also be released in Europe, although their impact is likely to remain limited in the absence of significant deviations from preliminary estimates. Therefore, US inflation data is likely to be the main driver for EUR/USD and GBP/USD during today’s session.

EUR/USD

In recent trading sessions, EUR/USD has been moving within a relatively narrow range of 1.1500–1.1580. Technical analysis suggests the possibility of another test of the lower boundary, as a Dark Cloud Cover pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. If sellers manage to establish a position below 1.1500, the pair could resume its downward move towards 1.1430–1.1460. Conversely, weaker-than-expected US inflation data could push the price towards 1.1600–1.1620.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): German Consumer Price Index (CPI);
• today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Italian Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP);
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

GBP/USD

GBP/USD buyers managed to push the pair to a new local high around 1.3500. Technical analysis indicates the possibility of further gains towards 1.3540–1.3560 if the 1.3480–1.3500 area is established as support. Stronger-than-expected US inflation data could support the dollar and trigger another test of the 1.3400 level in GBP/USD.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK GDP;
• tomorrow at 14:00 (GMT+3): NI’s monthly GDP tracker;
• tomorrow at 21:00 (GMT+3): US federal budget execution report.

Overall, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are holding their ground after their previous gains, but their next direction will largely depend on today’s US inflation report. Weaker CPI data could strengthen expectations of Fed easing and put additional pressure on the dollar, creating room for further gains in European currencies. If inflation comes in above forecasts, however, the US currency could receive fresh support, increasing the likelihood of EUR/USD and GBP/USD returning to their nearest support levels.

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Crypto friendly Erebor Bank is nearing a roughly $1.5 billion funding round at an $8 billion pre-money valuation, according to people familiar with the discussions cited by the FT. 

The talks come only six months after the Columbus, Ohio lender received final approval to open as a U.S. national bank. Erebor has not announced the financing and declined to comment to the newspaper, meaning the size, valuation and investor commitments remain subject to change.

Lux Capital, Human Capital, Valor Equity Partners, Andreessen Horowitz and SV Angel are expected to make commitments, while existing investors 8VC and Haun Ventures are also reportedly participating. The $8 billion figure is before the proposed new capital is added. If the full $1.5 billion closes on those terms, the resulting valuation would be about $9.5 billion.

Erebor Bank deposits have climbed above $4 billion

Regulatory figures give some support to the growth behind the fundraising talks. Erebor’s latest call report showed about $4.06 billion in deposits and roughly $4.66 billion in assets at the end of June, compared with around $1.1 billion in deposits at March 31.

The FT reported that deposits increased further to $4.6 billion by the end of July, citing a person familiar with the figures. That July total has not yet appeared in a quarterly regulatory filing. The same source said Erebor had surpassed $100 million in annualized recurring revenue, another figure that has not been independently confirmed through public filings.

As previously reported, Erebor’s deposits had already climbed above $4 billion by early July, up sharply from its first quarter level. The earlier fundraising discussions were already targeting a valuation of at least $8 billion, making the latest reported $1.5 billion round an extension of talks that were underway before August.

U.S. charter gave Erebor room to pursue crypto clients

Erebor began operating after receiving its national bank charter on Feb. 6. The FDIC’s public records list the bank as established on that date, while the agency had approved its deposit insurance application in December 2025.

The bank was created to serve what its charter application called the U.S. innovation economy, including companies involved in digital assets, artificial intelligence, defense and advanced manufacturing. Erebor also planned to provide services to high and ultra high net worth individuals connected to those sectors. The OCC granted preliminary conditional approval in October 2025.

As previously reported, Erebor secured preliminary approval for its national bank charter after the OCC said legally permissible digital asset activities could be conducted by federally chartered banks when handled safely.

That policy direction has continued. The OCC said this week that digital asset firms engaged in permissible activities should have a route into the national banking system, as Comptroller Jonathan Gould pushes to revive de novo bank formation.

Erebor faces stricter capital requirements during early growth

Erebor’s rapid deposit expansion also raises the importance of its regulatory capital obligations. The FDIC approval requires the bank to maintain at least a 12% Tier 1 leverage ratio during its first three years, a higher threshold than many established banks operate under.

That requirement means fresh equity can support balance sheet growth as Erebor moves beyond deposits into lending. The bank has already appeared in a large industrial financing. Valar Atomics said on Aug. 3 that it closed a $200 million credit facility led by Erebor as administrative agent and JPMorgan, alongside Crescent Cove and Hercules Capital.

The facility accompanied Valar’s $1 billion Series B financing and gives an early example of Erebor targeting capital intensive companies outside conventional software startups. That fits its stated strategy of serving defense, energy, AI infrastructure and other sectors that often require larger credit facilities.

What happens next for Erebor’s $1.5 billion round

The financing has not closed. People familiar with the discussions told the FT that demand was strong and the transaction could be completed within weeks, but no final date has been announced. Erebor has also not publicly confirmed the investors, valuation or amount.

If completed at the reported terms, the round would mark another rapid valuation increase after Erebor was valued at about $4.35 billion in an earlier financing. For now, the more verifiable measure of its expansion is the balance sheet: deposits grew from roughly $1.1 billion in March to more than $4 billion by June, while lending has begun to expand into large technology and industrial projects.

Metaplanet shifted 3,881 BTC, worth about $247 million, across several transactions over three hours on Wednesday, per Arkham data.

The move went from the company’s cold wallets to new addresses it also controls, not to an exchange.

Transfers to fresh self-custody wallets don’t add to tradable supply the way deposits to an exchange do, so on their own they aren’t selling.

Metaplanet has done this before. It moved nearly 5,000 BTC in March in the same pattern, test transactions followed by larger amounts into new wallets, and analysts then read it as internal custody reshuffling rather than distribution. Nothing in Wednesday’s on-chain data points anywhere different.

Metaplanet bought its roughly 43,000 BTC at an average of about $96,000, so with bitcoin near $63,600 the company is sitting on an unrealized loss of about $1.4 billion, down 34%.

Metaplanet has been one of the most aggressive corporate buyers since April 2024, with a stated target of 210,000 BTC.