The U.S. Department of the Treasury has begun the formal process of building regulations for the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, launching a notice of proposed rulemaking for public comment. The move is aimed at clarifying how the new stablecoin framework will be implemented ahead of the law’s scheduled start date in January 2027.

In a notice released on Monday, Treasury said it is accepting feedback as it works toward regulatory certainty for businesses operating in the stablecoin payments market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the department “welcomes input from stakeholders as [it works] to provide the regulatory certainty businesses need to innovate and grow in America.”

Key takeaways

• Treasury has opened a proposed-rulemaking process for GENIUS stablecoin implementation, inviting public comment before the January 2027 effective date.
• Under the GENIUS framework, payment stablecoins generally cannot be issued in the U.S. without an associated federal or state license once the law takes effect.
• The public comment window runs for 60 days after publication in the Federal Register.
• Earlier GENIUS-related proposals from other regulators may still leave uncertainty for market participants, especially given reported missed internal deadlines.

Treasury starts the GENIUS rulemaking process

The GENIUS Act, signed into law last year, is designed to establish a dedicated regulatory structure for “payment stablecoins.” Treasury’s Monday notice signals the next phase: translating statutory requirements into operational rules that regulated entities can plan around.

Treasury’s timeline indicates the law’s effect is tied to the agencies finalizing their rules. Under the bill’s schedule, the stablecoin law was set to begin 120 days after agencies complete final rules, or 18 months after the act’s passage in July 2025—placing the effective date on Jan. 18, 2027. Treasury’s proposed rules are intended to feed into that schedule rather than wait for the very end of the timeline.

Once GENIUS goes into effect, Treasury said an entity generally may not “issue a payment stablecoin” in the U.S. without a related federal or state license. That restriction is central to how market participants will need to structure issuance, compliance, and oversight, and it also underscores why regulators are pushing for rules well ahead of the deadline.

Interested parties will have 60 days to submit comments after the notice is published in the Federal Register, according to Treasury’s disclosure in the proposed-rulemaking notice.

Other agencies issued related proposals in 2026

Treasury is not acting in isolation. Alongside Treasury, other U.S. financial regulators—including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Federal Reserve Board—have reportedly issued notices of proposed rules in 2026 related to GENIUS implementation. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph noted that OCC proposals were also aimed at shaping the operating environment for stablecoins and addressing areas of policy debate.

However, the lead time between proposal announcements and final rules matters for businesses planning issuance pathways. The article notes that all departments reportedly missed a July 120-day deadline that would have allowed regulations to be finalized before January. That raises the possibility that GENIUS could take effect even without fully finalized guidance, which would leave some details uncertain for regulated entities and could complicate timelines for compliance readiness.

For market participants, this creates an important distinction: while the effective date is known, the practical contours of licensing and regulatory expectations may not be fully settled by then. That gap is precisely what public comment periods and subsequent rule finalization are meant to close.

GENIUS work is also being discussed with the UK

Beyond Washington, regulators are also coordinating on how stablecoin policy developments may intersect across borders. In July, the UK-US Financial Regulatory Working Group met in London to discuss cooperation between financial agencies, including implementation of the GENIUS Act.

The UK has taken its own steps toward regulating stablecoins, according to the referenced reporting. Still, crypto industry observers have argued that the UK risks falling behind the U.S. in terms of implementation momentum, especially as the U.S. continues to move toward a defined effective date and agency-by-agency rulemaking.

That difference matters for companies planning cross-border stablecoin services, since regulatory timing can affect product deployment, licensing strategy, and operational design—particularly for payment-oriented issuers that need clarity on authorization and compliance obligations.

Why the proposed rules matter before January 2027

The immediate consequence of Treasury’s proposed rulemaking is that stakeholders now have a formal channel to influence how GENIUS translates into enforceable requirements. While the precise contents of the proposed rules aren’t detailed in the excerpt, the framework’s licensing premise is already clear: payment stablecoins are generally not meant to be issued without an appropriate federal or state license once the law is active.

In practical terms, this means issuers and partners—such as payment processors and custody providers that support stablecoin networks—will likely need to map their roles to the future licensing and compliance system. If finalized rules arrive late relative to the effective date, businesses may face a planning problem: they can prepare for the direction of travel, but they may not know every operational requirement until rulemaking concludes.

With public comment open for 60 days after Federal Register publication, the next phase will test how quickly regulators can process feedback and move toward final rules. Market participants should watch for whether agencies can align their proposals into coherent, implementable guidance before the January 2027 milestone.

As Treasury and other regulators work through comments and finalization, the key uncertainty for stablecoin issuers is timing: whether the remaining rule details will be finalized with enough lead time for licensing and operational compliance. The public comment window will offer early signals about the issues regulators prioritize and the expectations that will shape GENIUS implementation.

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the new week at around $63,000, but bear-market history continues to repeat with weekly close below a key long-term trend line.

Key points:

• Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $57,700 and $67,300, but last week’s close came with a drop below the key 200-week moving average at $64,216.
• Markets are pricing in near-70% odds of a hold by the Federal Reserve in September, as July meeting minutes are due this week.
• Japan Q2 GDP figures fall short of expectations at 1.1% as analysis warns of “global tightening” that could impact Bitcoin and risk assets. 

Bitcoin sees weekly close below 200-week moving average

Bitcoin price action enjoyed a modest rebound after Sunday’s weekly close, seeing local highs of $63,655 on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Data from TradingView shows BTC/USD continuing to tread water as the week begins, failing to challenge either side of a narrow trading range.

Analyst Benjamin Cowen, however, drew attention to the fact that BTC/USD is now back below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA). As Cointelegraph reported, this moving average was a defining feature in the 2022 bear market, when it turned resistance in August before BTC entered its long-term bottoming phase.

“What is interesting is how in both summer 2022/2026, Bitcoin capitulated below the 200W SMA, then bounced, then gave it up in mid-August,” he wrote in a post on X.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, trader and analyst Rekt Capital added that price had failed to reach his own weekly-close target of $63,220, thus positioning for further downside in future.

“A rejection from $63,220 would fully confirm the breakdown and send price lower within the current ~$58,000-$66,000 Range (blue-blue)” he told X followers alongside an explanatory chart.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Fed minutes due amid policy dissent

Friday sees the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing and services sectors. The data has recently been in an uptrend diverging from relatively weak employment figures, which have seen several months of downward revisions. 

Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases, meanwhile, painted a softer-than-expected picture of US inflation trends.  This sparked a rethink on future interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. 

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows near-70% odds that the Fed will hold rates at their current 3.50-3.75% range, compared with 42% odds a month ago.

Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

“A pair of reports showing moderating inflation is helping keep the outlook for monetary policy from turning too hawkish,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company summarized in analysis released on Sunday.

Mosaic noted that while CPI came in at 3.4% year-on-year, this was still far above the Fed’s 2% target — a goal that chair Kevin Warsh continues to state will be achieved. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish the minutes of its July meeting.  Rate hikes were paused in the prior meeting with the largest split among officials over the move since 1970.

Last week, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank president Beth Hammack, who was one of three dissenting voices calling for a 0.25% rate hike in July, questioned whether public patience would tolerate it if the return to 2% rates took several years.

“Maybe we’d get there, but if it takes another three to four years to get there, is that OK? Is that enough?” she said at an event with the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce in Kettering, Ohio, quoted by Bloomberg.

Japan on the radar as GDP disappoints

Japan’s central bank is on the radar for risk-asset traders this week after Q2 GDP figures significantly missed expectations. Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year GDP increased 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively — below the anticipated 0.5% and 2.0%.

The timing of the print comes as markets see the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiking rates from current 1.0% levels in September amid surging bond yields and continued weakening in the yen. Previously, Cointelegraph reported on a rare joint intervention in yen currency markets by Japan and the US after JPY/USD weakened to new 40-year lows.

BoJ interest-rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: RateProbability

The GDP print, meanwhile, included the first drop in private consumption in eight quarters, signaling that existing stimulus measures were failing to prop up consumer confidence.

“The boost to consumption from policy measures is already fading, and inflation will increase in H2 as firms will pass on increased costs, deteriorating consumers’ purchasing power,” Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead Japan economist at Oxford Economics, told CNBC.

The yen avoided major volatility on the back of the GDP data, lingering near 159 per dollar on Monday.

USD/JPY four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Responding to the aftermath, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, noted potential implications for risk assets to come. Japan’s 10-year bond yield hit 2.93% on Monday, its highest levels since 1996.

“For now, this is not a signal to sell risk assets. But the market is approaching an important point: JGB > 3% + further BOJ rate hikes + a stronger yen + rising US Treasury yields,” he wrote in an X post. 

“If these factors align, Japan’s rate normalization could turn into a global tightening of financial conditions and hit stocks and Bitcoin.”

Japan 10-year bond yields one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin forgotten as consumer sentiment lows contrast with stocks gains

Rising stocks paired with record-low consumer sentiment are flashing a new warning sign for Bitcoin, which is increasingly being overlooked.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, crypto analytics platform Glassnode revealed a striking divergence between Bitcoin and equities in terms of sentiment.

“Consumer Confidence remains among the weakest readings of the past decade even after two consecutive improvements, while the US Stock Market Index set a fresh all-time high on August 7 and holds just beneath it,” it summarized.

The softer US inflation prints helped send the S&P 500 to all-time highs of 7,816 on Thursday. At the same time, the consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan is expected to drop 7.6% in August.

“Weak sentiment next to record prices looks like a contradiction until the driver is named: households that expect living costs to rise and the economy to soften are moving out of cash and into assets. The equity market, carried above all by the AI trade, is where that capital lands,” Glassnode commented.

US consumer sentiment data. Source: University of Michigan

Bitcoin continues to be left out of this capital rotation. A sign of change, Glassnode argued, would be a sustained rebound in institutional inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Last week, these saw net outflows of $267.2 million, per data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors. Just one out of five trading days finished with net inflows, totaling a mere $7.8 million.

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

Exchange BTC reserves grow with whale inflows in focus

Bitcoin supply dynamics are the latest troubling feature for its price trajectory, CryptoQuant analysis reports.

Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

Whales have started to dominate exchange inflows, exacerbating an existing absence of retail interest and causing exchange BTC reserves to reverse higher. Binance’s whale ratio reached 0.71 on Aug. 10, its highest since early March. 

“Exchange deposits do not necessarily mean immediate selling, but they increase the amount of BTC available for trading or hedging,” CryptoQuant commented.

Binance exchange whale ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Binance’s BTC reserves totaled 674,332 BTC on Sunday, up 2.57% month-to-date and at their highest since November 2025.

“The long-running trend of BTC leaving exchanges may therefore be weakening,” CryptoQuant continued.

Binance BTC reserves. Source: CryptoQuant

As Cointelegraph reported, exchange activity has been driven by derivatives markets as BTC/USD trades in a tight range since early June. On Binance, futures trading volume was eight times that of spot markets in early August.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $64,000 after Monday’s Wall Street open as US stocks gave way to gold.

Key points:

• Bitcoin continues a rebound from Sunday’s weekly close, gaining 2% on Monday.
• Oil stays steady after US president Donald Trump threatens to bomb Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Bitcoin funding rates hit 20-month highs of 0.022 last week, data reveals. 

Bitcoin inches up as US-Iran rhetoric spreads to Oman

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD up by more than 2% on the day, rebounding from Sunday’s weekly close. 

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US equities turned lower as an agreed 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran was set to expire, with the S&P 500 index down 0.5% from Thursday’s all-time highs. 

S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Speaking to Fox News, Trump threatened Oman with military action amid an ongoing dispute over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz oil route.

“If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s*** out of them,” he told the network.

Oil markets appeared unfazed by the tensions, with WTI crude flat at $82.35 per barrel at the time of writing.

Safe haven gold was more volatile, gaining just over 1% to start the week to reach a daily high of $4,427 per ounce. Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a combination of retail and government interest fueling gold’s multiweek highs.

XAU/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Data from investment research platform Bytetree tracking the 30-day change in inflows to gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) put the figure at nearly $12 billion through Aug. 13.

In a note on Monday quoted by Investing.com, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett wrote that long gold remained the trade, describing it as “still [sic] best hedge against dollar debasement, bond collapse, asset inflation, capitalist populism vs socialist populism politics of 2020s.”

Related: BTC price loses 200-week trend line as 2022 repeats: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Funding rates hit levels not seen since late 2024

In its latest Market Color bulletin published on Monday, trading company QCP Capital noted Bitcoin’s continued ability to weather macro tailwinds without a major breakdown from its current range.

“Rather than treating individual price levels as directional signals, the more useful observation is that BTC remains close to the lower end of its recent range. A sustained move outside that range would provide more information about market positioning than the relatively contained moves seen within it,” it wrote.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on expectations that a return to $61,000 would trigger an unwinding of BTC long positions, adding to downside BTC price momentum.

The latest data from CoinGlass showed liquidations remaining muted as BTC/USD returned toward $64,000, with 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations at $180 million.

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

In a sign of long BTC becoming an increasingly crowded trade, derivatives market funding rates hit 20-month highs of 0.022 on Aug. 14, per data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

“The derivatives market sentiment is positive within the current BTC price range, indicating that most traders are taking long positions,” it commented on the readings.

CryptoQuant previously noted that futures trading volume on Binance was outweighing spot markets by almost eight times.

Bitcoin funding rates chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The US Department of the Treasury issued a notice of proposed rulemaking related to the implementation of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, a bill to establish a framework for payment stablecoins signed into law last year.

In a Monday notice, the Treasury Department said that it was opening a proposed rule up to public comment ahead of the January 2027 implementation of the GENIUS Act. Under the terms of the bill, the stablecoin law had been scheduled to go into effect 120 days after agencies finalize rules, or 18 months after it was passed in July 2025, making its effective date Jan. 18, 2027. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the department “welcomes input from stakeholders as [it works] to provide the regulatory certainty businesses need to innovate and grow in America.” 

Together with the Treasury Department, other US government agencies including the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve Board have issued notices of proposed rules in 2026 related to the implementation of GENIUS. However, all departments reportedly missed the 120-day deadline in July to finalize regulations before January, signaling that GENIUS could go into effect without clear guidance.

Related: Wise to resubmit US bank charter application under GENIUS Act

According to Treasury, once the GENIUS Act goes into effect, an entity generally may not “issue a payment stablecoin” in the US without a related federal or state license. Public comment on the department’s proposed rules is open for 60 days following publication in the Federal Register.

US-UK regulators discuss GENIUS progress

In July, the UK-US Financial Regulatory Working Group met in London to discuss cooperation between the two country’s financial agencies, including implementation of the GENIUS Act.

Although UK authorities have taken steps to address stablecoin regulation, the pending implementation of GENIUS has some crypto industry insiders arguing the country is falling behind the US.

Magazine: Data of 54,000 wallet users leaked, CLARITY odds just 10%: Hodler’s Digest

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Bitcoin rebounded after Monday’s Wall Street open, returning to the $64,000 area as traditional markets rotated away from equities and toward commodities. The move followed a weekly close earlier in the weekend session, with BTC/USD recovering more than 2% on the day according to TradingView.

At the same time, geopolitical noise around the US–Iran standoff spilled toward Oman, raising renewed questions about the Strait of Hormuz shipping route—though oil prices appeared largely unmoved in early trading. Derivatives data also pointed to a crowded long trade, with Bitcoin funding rates reaching levels not seen since late 2024.

Key takeaways

• BTC/USD climbed more than 2% on Monday after rebounding from Sunday’s weekly close, with price returning to roughly $64,000.
• US–Iran ceasefire concerns and Trump’s comments related to Oman fed risk headlines, but WTI crude stayed near $82.35 per barrel.
• CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin funding rates hitting 20-month highs of 0.022 as long positions build within the current range.
• QCP Capital said BTC remains near the lower end of its recent range, warning that sustained moves beyond the range would carry more signal than day-to-day fluctuations.

BTC tracks a shift from equities to commodities

TradingView data showed Bitcoin up over 2% on Monday, rebounding from the prior weekly close. The move coincided with softer US equity sentiment: the S&P 500 was down about 0.5% from its Thursday all-time high around the time of writing, as stocks gave way to gold as investors searched for alternative havens.

Geopolitical headlines added volatility to the broader macro picture. With an agreed 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran set to expire, Trump told Fox News he would consider military action if Oman “gets in the way” amid a dispute linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz oil route. Despite the rhetoric, oil markets appeared calm, with WTI crude trading flat around $82.35 per barrel at the time.

Gold showed more movement than oil at the start of the week. Safe-haven demand lifted XAU/USD by just over 1%, reaching a daily high of $4,427 per ounce. Cointelegraph previously reported that a mix of retail participation and government interest helped push gold to multiweek highs.

Data tracked by Bytetree, which monitors the 30-day change in inflows to gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), placed 30-day inflows at nearly $12 billion through Aug. 13. In an Investing.com piece that quoted a Bank of America strategist, Michael Hartnett argued that “long gold remained the trade,” framing it as a hedge amid concerns around currency debasement, bond stress, and inflationary pressures.

Investors keep BTC near a familiar range—until positioning shifts

In a Monday bulletin, QCP Capital said Bitcoin’s ability to withstand macro pressures without a major breakdown suggested the market is not yet signaling a decisive trend change. The firm emphasized that focusing on single price levels may miss the bigger picture.

Instead, QCP Capital pointed to range behavior: it described BTC as still sitting close to the lower end of its recent trading band and argued that a sustained move outside the range would reveal more meaningful information about market positioning than relatively contained intraday moves.

This framing matters for traders because it implies that catalysts may be more important than incremental price changes. Earlier coverage referenced expectations that a return to the $61,000 area could prompt an unwinding of BTC long positions—an observation tied to how leverage can amplify downside when levels break.

On Monday, liquidation activity appeared contained as BTC moved back toward the $64,000 region. CoinGlass data cited in the report put 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations at approximately $180 million, suggesting that the rebound occurred without a large liquidation-driven panic on the day.

Funding rates surge: long exposure is getting crowded

Beyond spot price, derivatives positioning offered a more pointed signal. CryptoQuant data showed Bitcoin funding rates reaching 20-month highs of 0.022 on Aug. 14. The analytics firm characterized derivatives sentiment within the current BTC price range as positive, adding that most traders were taking long positions.

When funding rates rise while price holds relatively stable, it can indicate that market participants are piling into the same side of the trade. That can be constructive if momentum extends—but it also increases the risk that a reversal could trigger crowded unwinds, depending on how price reacts at the edges of the prevailing range.

The report also cited CryptoQuant’s earlier observation that futures activity on Binance was outweighing spot markets by nearly eight times. While this metric alone doesn’t predict direction, it supports the broader theme: derivatives are playing a large role in how leverage and sentiment develop around Bitcoin’s current trading boundaries.

What to watch next amid macro and leverage signals

For now, Bitcoin is rebounding, but the underlying positioning looks increasingly one-sided as funding rates climb and longs become more crowded. Investors and traders should watch whether BTC can sustain moves beyond its recent range—since QCP Capital suggested that only a sustained breakout would meaningfully clarify market positioning—while keeping an eye on funding rate changes and liquidation levels for signs that leverage is either being rewarded or set up for a sharper unwind.