On 28 August, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a more hawkish assessment of inflation at the Jackson Hole symposium than he had following the July meeting. He reaffirmed the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for core PCE inflation and described tackling price pressures as the central priority for policymakers.

Following his remarks, expectations for a rate hike at the September meeting increased noticeably, with the market apparently pricing in a higher probability of such a scenario. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin pulled back, giving up part of its August gains.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

The four-hour BTC/USD chart shows a pronounced uptrend, with the move from 14 to 28 August taking the price from around $63,000 to a peak near the current red resistance at $81,500.

An ascending wedge formed near the top of this advance, and on 28 August the price broke below its lower boundary on elevated volume. However, the decline has yet to develop into a sustained move. Momentum has slowed, and Bitcoin is currently trading within the density of the market profile, between the Point of Control (POC) at $78,900 and the lower profile boundary at $78,100.

If the decline resumes and the price establishes itself below the lower profile boundary, the round-number level at $77,000 could provide the next area of support.

Conversely, if sellers fail to push the price lower and the wedge breakout proves to be false, Bitcoin would first need to overcome the market-profile density on the way up. A break above the upper profile boundary at $80,000 would reopen the path towards the trend high around $81,500.

The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 50, 48 and 55, with all three measures remaining within the neutral zone.

Key Takeaways

The wedge breakout has yet to generate confirmation of a sustained decline, while the market remains within the current profile range. Neutral RSI + MAs readings offer no clear advantage to either buyers or sellers.

A more decisive move in Bitcoin could emerge as market expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September decision continue to evolve.

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Alderoty argues the CLARITY Act could support employment, but his statement remains an industry claim.

An NCA-commissioned study estimates crypto directly employs 34,000 workers and supports 232,000 jobs nationwide today.

Senate records schedule a September 15 cloture vote determining whether lawmakers begin formally considering CLARITY.

Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty urged U.S. senators to support the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act ahead of its next procedural vote, arguing that the legislation could promote employment and economic growth.

“A vote for Clarity is a vote for jobs and economic growth,” Alderoty wrote on Aug. 30. His statement is a policy argument rather than a finding that passing the bill would create a specific number of jobs.

Alderoty is also president of the National Cryptocurrency Association, which commissioned the employment research underpinning his argument

CLARITY Act job figures rely on economic modeling

The NCA’s Crypto at Work report, produced by Pragmatic Policy Group, estimates that crypto companies directly support about 34,000 full-time-equivalent U.S. positions in 2026.

The study places the industry’s broader employment footprint at 232,000 jobs. That total includes approximately 75,000 supplier positions and 123,000 jobs connected to spending by workers whose employment is directly or indirectly linked to crypto.

The 232,000 figure does not mean cryptocurrency businesses employ that many people directly. It is an economic-impact estimate built using multiplier effects across cloud computing, legal services, accounting, housing, transportation and other sectors.

As crypto.news reported, the model uses 2024 Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output tables, Bureau of Labor Statistics data and a $23.22 billion industry revenue estimate sourced from Statista.

NCA estimates $55B economic contribution

The report estimates that crypto-related activity will contribute more than $55 billion to U.S. gross domestic product during 2026. It also projects approximately $31 billion in worker income.

Average wages across the jobs included in the model were estimated at about $133,000. The NCA compared that figure with a national median wage of roughly $64,000.

California represented an estimated 57,649 supported jobs, followed by New York with 53,766 and Texas with 26,536. Washington and North Carolina accounted for about 15,097 and 9,524 jobs, respectively.

These are modeled estimates rather than a live payroll census. The report was commissioned by an industry association led by Alderoty, so its findings should not be presented as independent government employment statistics.

CLARITY Act faces September 15 Senate test

Official Senate records schedule a cloture motion on H.R. 3633 for Sept. 15 at 2:15 p.m. Eastern. The vote will determine whether senators formally begin considering the legislation.

It will not be a final vote on passing the CLARITY Act. The motion to proceed requires 60 votes, meaning Republican senators will need Democratic support to advance the bill.

The House passed the legislation by 294-134 on July 17, 2025, according to the official roll-call record. Seventy-eight Democrats joined Republicans in supporting the measure.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced an amended version by 15-9 in May 2026. Democratic Sens. Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks joined committee Republicans, according to the committee’s announcement.

Passage would require several additional steps

The CLARITY Act would establish federal definitions and registration rules for digital assets, exchanges, brokers and dealers. It would divide oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission based on the asset and transaction involved.

Clearing cloture would only open Senate consideration. Senators could then debate and amend the legislation before holding a separate passage vote.

Because the Senate committee changed the House-approved measure, both chambers would need to approve identical language before the bill could reach the president.

As previously reported, ethics rules and stablecoin provisions remain disputed. The debate includes proposed restrictions involving public officials’ crypto interests, consumer protections and stablecoin rewards.

Alderoty’s claim that CLARITY would support future employment cannot be tested unless the legislation becomes law. The NCA report estimates the industry’s current economic footprint but does not quantify how many additional jobs the bill itself would create.

Cronos halted block production on Aug. 30 after detecting an exploit involving Tectonic, a decentralized lending protocol operating on the blockchain.

Independent researcher Weilin Li estimated that approximately $75 million was affected. However, neither Cronos nor Tectonic had confirmed the cause or total loss as of Aug. 31.

Most of the identified assets appeared to remain on Cronos after validators stopped the network. No restart time, recovery plan or compensation framework had been announced.

Tectonic exploit reportedly used inflated TONIC collateral

Li attributed the incident to the treatment of TONIC, Tectonic’s governance token, as collateral. TONIC reportedly had a 20% collateral factor despite limited market liquidity.

According to his initial analysis, the attacker increased TONIC’s market price roughly 100-fold over about 20 minutes. The attacker then supplied the inflated tokens as collateral and borrowed other assets from Tectonic.

Li described the incident as a “Mango-market style” pump-and-borrow attack. The characterization remains an independent assessment because Tectonic has not published its own technical post-mortem.

The reported pattern resembles earlier attacks in which thinly traded collateral was assigned an inflated valuation. As crypto.news reported, a similar collateral-price attack drained Moonwell of an estimated $8.7 million shortly before the Tectonic incident.

Cronos halt kept most identified funds onchain

Li initially placed the affected assets at approximately $66 million. He said around $6 million crossed to Ethereum before Cronos validators halted block production, while roughly $60 million remained at a Cronos address.

The researcher later identified another address holding approximately $8 million, raising his combined estimate to around $75 million. Those figures remain estimates based on address attribution and token valuations.

Russia’s regulated crypto trading market could process between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles during its first year, according to an Aug. 29 forecast from SberCIB Investment Research.

The upper estimate equals approximately $46.43 billion at the exchange rate used by TASS. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the annual figure could rise to about 7.5 trillion rubles, or $87.06 billion, by 2029.

The projection is not a guaranteed minimum. Contrary to some secondary reports, TASS said first-year volume was “not expected to exceed” 4 trillion rubles. The 3.5 trillion-to-4 trillion-ruble range should therefore be treated as SberCIB’s forecast rather than a confirmed trading target.

Russia’s crypto trading forecast assumes limited migration

Popov said Russian cryptocurrency transactions currently total roughly 50 billion rubles daily. That would equal about 18 trillion rubles over one year, based on Russian Finance Ministry data he cited.

SberCIB expects approximately 20% of this activity to move onto regulated exchanges during the first year. The bank forecasts organized trading of between 4.75 trillion and 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028, followed by about 7.5 trillion rubles in 2029.

The estimates remain subject to investor demand, exchange registrations and final implementing rules. Sberbank has not presented the figures as official forecasts from Russia’s Finance Ministry or central bank.

Popov expects substantial activity to remain with cryptocurrency exchange services operating outside organized markets. This is one reason the estimate captures only a minority of Russia’s broader crypto transaction volume.

Retail investors face testing and annual purchase limits

Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency framework takes effect on Sept. 1, 2026. The Bank of Russia said both qualified and non-qualified investors will be able to conduct crypto transactions through approved intermediaries.

Non-qualified investors must pass a knowledge test before buying eligible cryptocurrencies. They can purchase no more than 300,000 rubles, approximately $3,800, annually through each intermediary.

Qualified investors must also complete testing. However, the central bank said they could access any cryptocurrency without the same monetary ceiling. The exact products available will depend on intermediary services and supporting regulations.

As crypto.news reported, the framework covers brokers, asset managers, exchanges and digital depositories. Cryptocurrency remains prohibited as payment for ordinary goods and services inside Russia.

Bitcoin, Ether and USDT lead the proposed asset list

The Bank of Russia has proposed Bitcoin, Ether and Tether’s USDT for organized trading. The regulator selected them using criteria related to market capitalization, trading volume and overseas price history.

The consultation did not mean that every intermediary would immediately offer all three assets. As previously reported, the central bank’s proposed BTC, ETH and USDT list remained subject to final regulatory action after the consultation period closed on Aug. 24.

Other cryptocurrencies could remain unavailable to ordinary investors through regulated venues unless they satisfy the central bank’s standards. Qualified investors are expected to receive broader access after completing required testing.

The restricted retail list could encourage some demand to remain outside the licensed system. That possibility is incorporated into SberCIB’s conservative adoption assumptions.

Licensing deadlines will shape the market’s first year

Existing crypto exchange providers can continue operating during a transition period but must complete registration by July 1, 2027. The delay means the regulated market will not operate at full capacity immediately after the law takes effect.

The central bank has also proposed rules covering exchanges, digital depositories, client accounts and asset records. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that the Bank of Russia will maintain official registers for approved market participants.

Sberbank separately plans to launch crypto trading, custody and digital-depository infrastructure by Dec. 1, 2026. The bank has not finalized customer eligibility, supported assets, fees or withdrawal terms, according to earlier reporting.

The first measurable results will depend on how many intermediaries enter the regulated system and how much activity moves away from unregistered services. No verified market movement in Bitcoin, Ether or USDT was directly attributed to SberCIB’s forecast.