Business
Meesho shares can fall 28%, warns Nomura after initiating coverage with Reduce call. Here is why
Meesho operates a two-sided marketplace that connects value-conscious, mass-market Indian consumers with a long tail of SMEs and small manufacturers. Unlike traditional marketplaces, it monetises through advertising and fulfilment services rather than commissions, and caters to around 90% of India’s online shoppers.
Competition is heating up
Nomura said competition for Meesho could intensify from horizontal e-commerce platforms and quick commerce (QC), even as the company retains an early-mover advantage. The brokerage expects Amazon and Flipkart to step up their presence in QC and value commerce (VC), which are growing faster than overall e-commerce. It pointed to Flipkart’s relaunch of Shopsy in May 2026 with a gamified approach focused on Gen Z and higher user engagement as a step in that direction.
Nomura also expects the overlap with the QC industry to increase, particularly in metros, as quick-commerce players expand beyond groceries and into more product categories while widening their geographic reach. However, it does not expect Meesho to invest in dark stores.
Meesho trading at expensive valuation
While Nomura said it likes Meesho’s asset-light business model, it believes the current share price leaves limited room for execution missteps. The brokerage flagged potential headwinds to margin improvement from third-party logistics (3PL) disruptions and rising competition.
It also noted that Meesho trades at a premium to Eternal and Swiggy despite the two companies having higher NMV growth and cash-generating food delivery businesses. Nomura initiated coverage with a DCF-based target price of Rs 167, implying an EV/NMV of around 1.1x on FY28F estimates. Key risks to Nomura’s forecast include faster-than-expected user additions, an annual decline in AOV of less than 2%, stronger-than-expected advertising margins and lower competitive intensity.
What Nomura likes?
Nomura highlighted Meesho’s asset-light business model, AI-led innovations and improving free cash flow as key attractions. Unlike most other platforms, Meesho does not own inventory or fulfilment assets, while its in-house Valmo platform, which has around 18,000 logistics partners, helps it maintain industry-low fulfilment costs.The brokerage also said Meesho’s use of AI to enhance user experience has been an important driver of its rapid user growth. It expects logistics spread and advertising revenue to increase from around 1.5% and 3% of NMV, respectively, in Q1 FY27 to 2.8% and 5% by FY30, lifting adjusted EBITDA margin from -1.2% in Q1 FY27 to 2.9% in FY30.
Meesho Q1 results
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Meesho reported a loss of Rs 133 crore, improving from a loss of Rs 289 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. The company expects year on year growth in net merchandise value (NMV) to slow during the July to September quarter as it steps up spending to acquire new users ahead of the festive season.
According to the company, the softer growth outlook is primarily due to the timing of its flagship Mega Blockbuster Sale, which has been shifted this year from the July to September quarter to the October to December quarter. As a result, the company expects growth in the third quarter to appear stronger, with comparisons expected to even out when both quarters are viewed together.
Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.
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A day after her historic victory on America’s Got Talent, Nene Royal continues to receive widespread praise, notably from Prime Minister Anutin.
PM Anutin Congratulates Nene Royal on AGT Victory
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul extended his heartfelt congratulations to Nene Royal following her remarkable victory on “America’s Got Talent.” Nene, a prodigious talent from Thailand, captivated audiences worldwide with her stunning performances and unique artistry, showcasing the rich cultural tapestry of her homeland. Her success on such a prestigious international platform is a testament to her dedication and hard work, putting Thailand on the global map of entertainment.
In his congratulatory message, PM Anutin praised Nene for her perseverance and the pride she has brought to the nation. He acknowledged how her journey has inspired countless young Thai artists to pursue their dreams fearlessly. He expressed confidence that her achievement would open doors for more Thai talents in international arenas, fostering greater cultural exchanges.
Nene’s victory has sparked nationwide celebrations, with fans and well-wishers flooding social media with messages of support and admiration. Her triumph not only highlights individual excellence but also reinforces the growing influence of Thai culture in global entertainment. As Nene basks in her newfound fame, many hope that her journey will pave the way for future generations to shine on international stages.
Citizens reiterates W. P. Carey stock rating on investment update
Juan de la Hoz has worked as a fixed income trader, financial analyst, operations analyst, and as an economics professor. He has experience analyzing, trading, and negotiating fixed-income securities, including bonds, money markets, and interbank trade financing, across markets and currencies. He focuses on dividend, bond, and income funds, with a strong focus on ETFs. Juan is a contributor to the investing group CEF/ETF Income Laboratory which is led by Stanford Chemist. Features of the service include: managed income portfolios (targeting safe and reliable ~8% yields) making use of high-yield opportunities in the CEF and ETF fund space. These are geared toward both active and passive investors of all experience levels. The vast majority of CEF/ETF Income Laboratory holdings are also monthly-payers, for faster compounding and steady income streams. Other features include 24/7 chat, and trade alerts. Learn More.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Business
Jefferies is bullish on Adani Ports and 5 other logistics sector stocks. How many do you have?
Jefferies has shared an optimistic forecast for six logistics stocks, highlighting anticipated price hikes. Among them, Adani Ports is projected to rise by 20% from its present valuation. TCI Express is notably positioned for a remarkable 59% upside, while both JSW Infrastructure and Delhivery exhibit attractive investment prospects with moderate increases expected. This report reflects a broader growth trend in Indian port volumes, significantly influenced by government-operated Major Ports.
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