Crypto World
Samourai Wallet Co-Founder’s New Transfer Followed 30-Day Hold
Samourai Wallet co-founder Keonne Rodriguez says he is facing yet another prison transfer after a drug treatment program at FCI McKean was deactivated, threatening the availability of the rehabilitation program he had been counting on to potentially shorten his sentence.
Rodriguez, who is serving a five-year federal term following a guilty plea tied to an alleged unlicensed money-transmitting business, said on X that McKean’s warden told program participants that Rodriguez and roughly 70 others would be moved to institutions where treatment would still be available. He entered the program because completing it could reduce his sentence by up to a year.
Key takeaways
- Keonne Rodriguez says FCI McKean shut down the drug treatment program he relied on for possible sentence reduction.
- Rodriguez claims McKean officials told program participants—him and about 70 others—that they would be transferred to facilities where treatment remains available.
- The transfer risk comes alongside broader U.S. legislative efforts to clarify whether non-custodial crypto developers should be treated as financial intermediaries.
- Congressional momentum for the CLARITY Act has stalled recently after a failed Senate effort to advance the bill.
Rehabilitation disruption at FCI McKean
Rodriguez said the most recent setback began when the program at FCI McKean was deactivated. He wrote that McKean’s warden informed the group that he and dozens of other participants would be moved to different federal facilities where treatment is still offered.
According to Rodriguez, his decision to enter the program was driven by the potential sentencing benefit: completing the treatment could, he said, reduce his term by as much as a year. With the program turned off at McKean, the practical question for him is whether the next facility will keep the promised pathway to sentence reduction within reach.
Earlier, Rodriguez described the movement between prisons as far more punishing than the distance might suggest. In a letter published by The Rage, he called the transition from FPC Morgantown to McKean the “absolute worst 30 days” of his life and said his request to make the roughly four-hour trip himself was denied.
From Morgantown to a “federal transfer” flow
Rodriguez’s account depicts a system built around transfers rather than continuity of routine. He said inmates leaving Morgantown were placed in ankle shackles and handcuffs attached to waist chains. He then described being taken by bus to an airport and flown to the Federal Transfer Center in Oklahoma City.
At the Federal Transfer Center, Rodriguez said he was housed with prisoners from different security classifications and spent much of his time locked in a cell. He described the experience in stark, prison-era language, saying he wondered whether “all the circles of hell” were contained within the federal transfer facility.
He also said that eventually he was assigned a cell with an inmate serving a murder sentence and that he was given only part of a foam mattress. Rodriguez stated that the setup left part of his body resting on a metal bunk overnight.
Rodriguez later faced another major procedural milestone: he is serving time after pleading guilty in a case involving Samourai Wallet’s operations. The U.S. Department of Justice said in a release that Rodriguez and co-founder William Lonergan Hill transmitted more than $237 million in criminal proceeds through the service.
Sentencing context and what Rodriguez claims is at stake
Rodriguez is currently serving a five-year sentence, and he has been vocal about conditions and the operational uncertainty that comes with prison transfers. The new claim about McKean’s treatment program matters because it directly affects whether he can stay enrolled in a structured course that, he says, could reduce his sentence.
His account also underscores a broader reality for incarcerated people: even when rehabilitation is available at one facility, a change in programming can force a relocation—sometimes on short notice—where eligibility and access may differ.
Rodriguez’s statements also echo a theme that has repeatedly appeared in federal criminal cases involving crypto: the practical consequences of how a defendant’s sentence interacts with institutional rules, program availability, and transfer logistics.
Legislative backdrop: developer protections still unresolved
The prison news arrives while lawmakers continue wrestling with how U.S. rules apply to crypto developers, particularly in situations where developers do not control users’ assets.
According to a recent report on the CLARITY Act, the latest Senate draft retained provisions intended to protect non-controlling developers from certain money-transmission requirements under the Bank Secrecy Act. However, the legislative effort has not advanced smoothly: Cointelegraph reported that the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on Sept. 15 after a procedural vote fell short of the 60 votes needed to move the legislation forward.
That contrast—ongoing legal uncertainty for developers in Washington alongside Rodriguez’s real-world account of how institutions can change course—highlights a persistent issue for the industry: while policy debates continue, compliance expectations remain uneven, and the consequences can extend well beyond code and into enforcement and sentencing.
The CLARITY Act’s stalled progress means that questions about regulatory treatment—especially around whether certain developer behaviors could be interpreted as financial intermediation—remain unresolved for the moment. Even if the bill’s drafting language includes protective measures, the key uncertainty for builders and users is whether legislation will actually move, and how any final framework would be applied.
For Rodriguez, the immediate thing to watch is whether his next facility preserves access to the treatment program he says could reduce his sentence. More broadly, industry readers should monitor how the CLARITY Act debate evolves in the Senate, because the outcome will shape how investors, developers, and compliance teams plan for what the law requires.
Crypto World
Are US Treasuries now a better investment than rental property?
It would be more profitable for the average investor to buy a 10 year US government bond than to become a typical landlord. Indeed, this relative profitability is at its highest level since July 2007.
Negative housing spreads occur when the interest rate “spread” between low-risk US Treasuries are outperforming the risky operations of renting-out real estate.
Specifically, the US 10-year Treasury yield-to-maturity closed at 5.11% on Wednesday and pushed further to 5.18% on Thursday.

An oil shock and borrowing spree during the US war with Iran helped push Treasury bond yields to bizarre heights this year.
A recent rate hike from the Federal Reserve then catapulted yields past the 2007 housing bubble.
Last week, Chairman Kevin Warsh announced the Fed’s first hike in three years, and his committee’s own projections for an additional increase to their Fed Funds Rate this year.
Read more: US 20-year bond auction just had its worst showing ever
Negative housing spreads cause rental investment collapse
Nick Gerli, CEO of a real estate data firm, posted a chart drawing more than 250,000 views with a simple statement: Real estate for cash flow has a negative opportunity cost relative to government bonds.
According to his calculation, 10-year Treasuries above 5.1% easily beat the 4.8% single family house rental cap rate.
That 4.8% figure is one of many benchmarks for after-cost returns on rental properties. Individual property owners might earn double-digit returns during great years with minimal repairs, and then lose money the next year amid unexpected costs or low occupancy. Real estate returns vary drastically.
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Crypto World
Whitehat Rescues 3,832 NFTs Amid Suspected Magic Eden Flaw

Yuga Labs’ 0xQuit said the NFTs are safe and will be returned once the risk passes, while holders were urged to revoke NFT permissions.
Crypto World
What retail traders should look for in a multi-asset trading platform in 2026
A single account for currencies, digital assets and commodities can simplify trading, but a tidy interface says little about what sits underneath.
Compare how each product is structured, priced, executed and governed – not the length of the instrument list.
Why crypto-native traders are looking beyond crypto
For traders used to crypto markets, adding currencies or gold can broaden the set of market drivers they follow. The scale is different too: the BIS 2025 Triennial Central Bank Survey recorded average OTC foreign-exchange turnover of $9.6 trillion per day in April 2025.
More markets do not automatically mean better diversification
Bitcoin, a technology-stock CFD and a high-beta currency may all fall when risk appetite fades. Diversification depends on correlations, position sizes and how those relationships change – not the number of symbols on screen.
Why product structure matters
“Buying gold” could mean owning a security, trading a futures contract or taking a leveraged CFD position. Crypto access might involve the underlying asset or a derivative with no wallet withdrawal. Before comparing forex and crypto trading, identify what is actually traded, who the counterparty is, how the position is margined and whether it expires or incurs overnight financing.
What “multi-asset trading platform” should mean in practice
Market access and instrument availability
Ask for the exact instrument schedule available in your country. “Stocks” may mean shares or CFDs, while “forex” may cover rolling spot-style products rather than futures. Compare trading hours, contract size, quote currency and what happens to orders when the underlying market is closed.
As crypto-native traders add currency and commodity exposure, providers increasingly compete on consolidated market access and risk tools. The 1xTrade trading platform is one example of this approach. As with any provider, traders should independently confirm which products are available in their jurisdiction and review the applicable costs, execution terms and legal disclosures before opening an account.
One interface versus one risk model
A unified online trading platform should show total margin use and exposure across asset classes. Test whether order tickets behave consistently, profit and loss are converted clearly into the account currency, and stops can be reviewed alongside exposure elsewhere.
Check 1: Execution and order handling
Why FX execution is different from a centralised exchange
Crypto traders may expect one visible order book, but retail OTC FX commonly involves dealer pricing. The BIS analysis of the 2025 FX execution landscape describes a decentralised, fragmented market in which spot and most FX derivatives trade over the counter; dealers internally match more than 80% of customer trades.
Ask how market orders, limits and stops are handled, whether slippage can be positive as well as negative, and what happens during gaps or connection failures. Evaluate execution quality using fill records, not a speed slogan or demo alone.
Check 2: Total trading costs
Spreads, commissions and overnight costs
Trading platform fees should be assessed for a realistic holding period. Add the bid–ask spread, commission, overnight financing or swap, currency-conversion charge and any market-data or inactivity fee. Then review deposit and withdrawal charges. A narrow headline spread may still produce a higher all-in cost for a position held for several days.
Check 3: Risk controls before leverage
Position sizing, stops and exposure limits
Leverage increases market exposure relative to deposited capital, amplifying losses as well as gains. A stop can constrain an intended exit but cannot guarantee its price in a fast or gapping market. Useful controls, therefore, include a pre-trade margin preview, position-size input, account-wide exposure view and clear liquidation rules.
Before placing an order:
- Set the maximum account loss for the trade in cash, not just percentage points.
- Calculate the size from the stop distance and contract value.
- Check the combined exposure of correlated positions.
Check 4: Funding and withdrawals
Read the operational terms before funding. Confirm supported currencies and rails, identity checks, minimums, fees, processing windows and whether withdrawals must use the original method. Test a small withdrawal early. “Processed” is not “received” when a bank, card network or blockchain adds another settlement step.
Check 5: Legal, jurisdictional and product disclosures
Trading platform due diligence starts with the exact contracting entity – not the brand name. Check that entity on the relevant regulator’s official register, then match its permissions to the product and your location. Corporate registration alone does not establish financial-services authorisation.
The CFTC’s retail forex advisory tells US customers to research OTC dealers before depositing, verify CFTC registration and review NFA disciplinary history. Wherever you live, read the client agreement, execution policy, risk disclosure, complaints route and rules on client-money protection before opening an account.
A practical multi-asset platform checklist
| Factor | What to verify | Why it matters |
| Market access | Exact products available in your jurisdiction | Familiar asset labels can hide different legal structures |
| Execution | Order types, pricing model, slippage and execution disclosures | Fills affect real cost and exit quality |
| Costs | Spread, commission, financing, conversion and withdrawal charges | Headline pricing rarely captures the full cost |
| Risk controls | Stops, sizing, margin rules and exposure tools | Small market moves can become large account moves |
| Legal status | Entity, jurisdiction, permissions and restrictions | The protections must match the actual provider and product |
| Withdrawals | Processing terms, verification and fees | Access to capital is part of platform usability |
Final thoughts: Convenience should not replace due diligence
The right trading platform 2026 is one whose products, costs and rules you can explain before committing capital. Apply the same checklist to every forex trading platform and crypto trading platform considered. A unified workflow matters only if it makes exposure, execution and obligations easier to see.
Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.
Crypto World
Uniswap price forecast: UNI risks 15% drop as long liquidations build – CoinJournal
Key takeaways
- Uniswap retreated after climbing to an intraweek high of approximately $10.95.
- UNI’s weekly RSI has entered overbought territory at around 73.
- A correction could target $7.83, while losing that support may expose $6.91.
Uniswap (UNI) could decline toward $7.80 over the coming weeks after its latest rally lost momentum near a major resistance area.
An overbought weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI), a rejection below the $11.51 Fibonacci level and a concentration of leveraged long positions below the market all point to an elevated risk of a correction.
UNI traded near $9.11 on September 25 after reaching an intraweek high of roughly $10.95. Although its longer-term technical structure has improved, the token may need to cool further before attempting another sustained advance.
UNI Rally Loses Momentum Below $11.50
Uniswap’s recent rebound brought the price close to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $11.51. That area represented an important upside target following UNI’s breakout above a long-term descending resistance trendline.
However, the token failed to reach or break the level convincingly. Sellers emerged around $10.95, pushing the price back toward $9.11 and leaving a substantial upper wick on the developing weekly candle.
A long upper wick typically signals that buyers drove the price higher during the period but could not hold those gains. While this pattern does not guarantee a reversal, it indicates that selling pressure has increased near the recent high.
The rejection is especially relevant because it occurred close to major Fibonacci resistance. Unless UNI can reclaim the $10.95-$11.51 region, traders may treat the latest move as an unsuccessful breakout attempt rather than the beginning of another sustained rally.
Overbought RSI raises correction risk
Momentum indicators also suggest that Uniswap’s advance may be becoming stretched. UNI’s weekly RSI has risen to around 73, placing it above the traditional overbought threshold of 70.
An overbought RSI does not automatically mean that a sell-off is imminent. During strong trends, cryptocurrencies can remain overbought for extended periods while prices continue rising. Nevertheless, UNI’s previous sharp weekly rallies have frequently been followed by consolidation or multi-week corrections as traders lock in profits.
The combination of an elevated RSI, resistance near $11.51, and the recent upper wick strengthens the possibility of a short-term pullback.
The first major technical target on the downside is the 200-week exponential moving average at approximately $7.83. A decline from $9.21 to that level would represent a correction of about 15%.
If buyers defend the $7.80-$7.85 area, UNI could establish a higher low and prepare for another attempt at $11.50. Losing that support, however, would expose the 100-week EMA near $6.91.
Despite these near-term risks, Uniswap’s broader chart remains healthier than it was earlier in the year. UNI is still trading above several important weekly moving averages and has broken through a long-term descending resistance line. A pullback to $7.83 could therefore function as a retest of support rather than the start of a larger bearish reversal.
Derivatives positioning creates an additional source of downside pressure. CoinGlass data shows a significant cluster of leveraged long positions around $8.87 on Binance’s UNI/USDT market.
Approximately $5.16 million in liquidation leverage is concentrated near that price. If UNI falls toward $8.87, the move could expose an estimated $10.35 million in cumulative long liquidations.
When a leveraged long position is liquidated, the exchange closes it automatically by selling the underlying exposure. If many positions are forced to close in a short period, that selling can accelerate the decline and trigger further liquidations at lower prices.
This dynamic makes $8.87 a potential liquidity magnet. A modest pullback toward that level could develop into a sharper move if forced selling overwhelms available demand.
The liquidation heatmap also identifies short-position liquidity above the current market, meaning that an unexpected rally could still generate a short squeeze. However, the larger concentration of vulnerable longs immediately below the price makes the downside risk more pressing in the near term.
Can UNI recover toward $11.50?
Uniswap’s next move may depend on whether buyers can protect the $8.87 liquidity zone and the stronger technical support around $7.83.
A successful defense of these levels would preserve the improving weekly structure and leave UNI positioned for another test of $11.50. A decisive weekly close above that resistance would weaken the correction scenario and could open the door to higher targets.
Conversely, a liquidation-driven decline below $8.87 would increase the probability of a move toward the 200-week EMA at $7.83. If that floor also breaks, the 100-week EMA near $6.91 would become the next significant downside level.
For now, UNI’s longer-term recovery remains intact, but overbought momentum and crowded leveraged positioning suggest that volatility—and potentially a 15% correction—could come first.
Crypto World
US Weighs Overseas Expansion of Dollar-Backed Stablecoins, Bloomberg
According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is weighing an initiative aimed at encouraging the use of dollar-backed stablecoins outside the United States, framing the push as a way to strengthen the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.
The report, citing people familiar with the plans, says the US government could support stablecoin projects by partnering through joint ventures with private-sector firms. The effort could involve multiple agencies, including the Treasury Department, the State Department, and the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). Bloomberg reported the details on Wednesday.
Key takeaways
- Bloomberg reports a potential US government initiative to promote overseas adoption of dollar-backed stablecoins.
- The proposed approach would reportedly rely on joint ventures with private-sector firms, potentially involving multiple federal agencies.
- US officials have repeatedly tied stablecoin expansion to strengthening dollar dominance and increasing demand for US Treasurys.
- The plan arrives as other regions accelerate digital infrastructure work, including CBDC pilots and cross-border payment platforms.
Why stablecoins are part of US dollar strategy
The reported initiative highlights a broader policy theme: dollar-backed stablecoins are increasingly viewed by senior US officials not only as financial technology, but also as infrastructure that can reinforce the dollar’s global settlement role.
In February 2025, venture capitalist David Sacks—who at the time served as the White House crypto and AI czar—argued that stablecoins could “extend the dollar’s dominance internationally,” and potentially “generate trillions of dollars” in additional demand for US government debt. Earlier Cointelegraph coverage connected these claims to the administration’s stance on stablecoin regulation and the dollar economy. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph noted how officials framed the relationship between stablecoin growth and US Treasury demand.
That linkage has also appeared in subsequent statements by Treasury leadership. In July 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the GENIUS Act—legislation that created a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins—could strengthen the dollar’s status as a reserve currency, broaden access to the dollar economy, and increase demand for US Treasurys. Cointelegraph previously reported on this framing, including the argument that stablecoin rules are designed to “cement” US dollar prominence. Cointelegraph’s analysis also highlighted concerns that the rules’ treatment of foreign issuers remained unclear.
GENIUS implementation continues as the government considers a wider push
While the overseas initiative is still at the consideration stage, the administration’s domestic stablecoin work has continued in parallel. The Treasury Department has been moving forward with implementation of the GENIUS Act, including rulemaking focused on how payment stablecoins can be issued, offered, and sold.
On Aug. 17, the Treasury issued a notice of proposed rulemaking seeking public comment on provisions that would govern issuance, offering, and sale of payment stablecoins. Cointelegraph reported on the move, and the reporting noted Bessent’s comments that the rules would help “cement” the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
For investors and market participants, that matters because overseas adoption would likely require a predictable compliance framework—especially for the kinds of projects that would be eligible for public-private support. A government-linked push could also change competitive dynamics abroad by accelerating distribution partnerships and expanding the set of jurisdictions where dollar stablecoins can be used for settlement and retail payments.
Global competition: CBDCs and cross-border pilots advance elsewhere
The potential US push for dollar-backed stablecoins comes amid rapid movement in other parts of the world to modernize payments, including central bank digital currency efforts and cross-border experimentation.
Cointelegraph noted that China’s digital yuan is used in Project mBridge, a platform designed for cross-border CBDC transactions. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph described how participating institutions have treated mBridge as a practical sandbox for multinational settlement use cases.
In Europe, the European Central Bank is preparing a 12-month digital euro pilot expected to begin in the second half of 2027, according to Cointelegraph. That reporting underscored how the euro area is building a timeline for experimentation with a digital euro that could eventually influence cross-border payments and merchant settlement preferences.
Against that backdrop, a US initiative promoting dollar stablecoins overseas would be entering a competitive environment where governments are exploring multiple settlement rails—CBDCs, tokenized assets, and stablecoin-based payment networks. The key uncertainty is whether the US will prioritize stablecoin issuance and compliance standards, partnerships and distribution, or targeted support for specific cross-border use cases.
What remains unclear—and what to watch next
Bloomberg’s report suggests the US government could use joint ventures with private-sector firms to help drive adoption of dollar-backed stablecoins internationally, with Treasury, State, and the DFC among the agencies that may be involved. However, details on how such arrangements would be structured, which jurisdictions would be targeted, and what regulatory constraints would apply are not provided in the available reporting.
Cointelegraph said it reached out to the US Treasury, the DFC, and several US-based stablecoin companies for comment but did not receive a response before publication.
Readers should watch for follow-on disclosures—especially any indication of which stablecoin activities could receive support, how the initiative would interact with GENIUS implementation, and whether the administration’s goal of increasing US Treasury demand translates into specific, measurable policy outcomes.
Crypto World
Bitcoin ETFs have erased a $5.8 billion hole
Bitcoin investors have done it.
They’ve poured billions into U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in recent weeks. The result: these ETFs now sit on nearly $800 million in net inflows for the year, according to data source SoSoValue. That’s a 180-degree turn from the red ink earlier this year.
Here’s how bad it got. On July 13, the same ETFs were down $5.8 billion for the year. That was the low point, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk.
The turnaround lines up with bitcoin’s price recovery to $85,000 from under $58,000 in early June. That price rise, combined with the ETF inflows, has convinced some analysts a new bull run is already underway.
Nearly $4 billion of those inflows have come in since U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s August announcement of increased bond purchases, a liquidity management tool rolled out as bond yields surged to multi-year highs.
Still, there is much work to do for the bulls. At $800 million, net inflows for the year are still way smaller than $35.2 billion in 2024 and $21.4 billion in 2025.
Six-day winning streak
These ETFs have pulled in money for six straight days, even as bitcoin’s rally has stalled above $85,000 since Tuesday.
Crypto World
KelpDAO sues LayerZero and CEO over $292M rsETH bridge exploit
KelpDAO filed a lawsuit against LayerZero and its co-founder, blaming the universal bridge protocol for the largest exploit of this year, which drained $292 million and triggered one of the largest DeFi runs in crypto history, according to a post on X on Thursday.
“The exploit was a direct result of LayerZero’s failures, including a failure to disclose weaknesses and risks inherent in LayerZero’s own technology,” KelpDAO said.
KelpDAO, a decentralized liquid staking protocol on Ethereum, also accused LayerZero of failing to prevent infiltration of its security infrastructure, claiming that this allowed attackers to exploit the universal bridge’s alleged weaknesses.
“Rather than take responsibility, over the last few months, LayerZero and Mr. Pellegrino publicly blamed us for their failures,” KelpDAO said.
Pellegrino immediately responded that he would see them in a Canadian court.
“Evercrest (KelpDAO) filed a notice of civil claim today in BC (British Columbia, Canada) against myself and LZ (LayerZero),” Pellegrino said. “The claim continues to be meritless. I will meet them in Vancouver and defend myself accordingly.”
Crypto World
KelpDAO Sues LayerZero Over $292M rsETH Exploit
KelpDAO has filed a lawsuit against cross-chain protocol LayerZero following the roughly $292 million exploit of its rsETH bridge earlier this year, alleging that failures in LayerZero’s security infrastructure contributed to the attack.
KelpDAO said Friday that LayerZero failed to disclose risks in its technology or prevent attackers from compromising its infrastructure. It also alleged that LayerZero had reviewed and endorsed its deployment and configuration in writing before the exploit.
The lawsuit also names LayerZero co-founder and CEO Bryan Pellegrino.
“Our number one priority has always been and will remain the security of our users’ assets,” Kelp wrote. “But we also need to correct the record, and hold LayerZero and Mr. Pellegrino accountable for the harm they have caused us and the broader DeFi ecosystem.”
Pellegrino called the claim “meritless” and said he would defend the case in Vancouver.
The lawsuit escalates a months-long dispute over whether the loss was caused by the compromise of LayerZero’s infrastructure, KelpDAO’s bridge configuration, or both.
Cointelegraph contacted LayerZero for further comment, but did not receive a response before publication.
Kelp and LayerZero have disputed responsibility since April
The April 18 attack resulted in the theft of 116,500 rsETH, worth about $292 million at the time, from Kelp’s LayerZero-powered bridge.
In its final incident report, LayerZero said attackers compromised its internal nodes and caused its verifier to approve a forged cross-chain message. It argued that the loss was possible because Kelp’s bridge relied on a single LayerZero decentralized verifier network (DVN) as its only verification path.
Related: Recovery hopes fade as Kelp DAO hacker launders nearly all $220M in stolen funds
With no second independent verifier required, the bridge released the rsETH after receiving LayerZero’s verifier approved the forged message. LayerZero said it had recommended using multiple DVNs and subsequently stopped acting as the sole required verifier for applications.
Kelp has disputed LayerZero’s account of responsibility. In May, it said its DVN configuration had previously been discussed with LayerZero and “confirmed as secure,” while accusing LayerZero of failing to adequately warn it about the risks. Kelp subsequently announced plans to migrate the rsETH bridge to Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol.
Magazine: Winners and losers of the SEC’s new tokenized stocks rules
Crypto World
Yen's Best Day in Two Weeks: Is Intervention Risk Now the Real Ceiling?
The Japanese yen posted its steepest daily gain in over two weeks on Friday, strengthening as much as 0.6% to 157.95 per dollar after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s latest warning kept traders wary of intervention.
Katayama said US President Donald Trump raised concerns about the weak yen directly with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during a meeting in New York this week, a detail that adds unusual weight to Tokyo’s usual verbal warnings.
Why This Warning Hits Differently
Katayama’s comments follow a script Tokyo has used for months. What changes the calculation this time is the apparent involvement of the White House.
She added that she will keep coordinating with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has separately signaled support for a stronger yen.
Moh Siong Sim, a strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, framed the shift bluntly:
“Intervention risk should put a ceiling on further JPY weakness. More importantly, the JPY may be nearing a turning point as Trump’s concerns over its weakness point to deeper US-Japan coordination to support the currency.”
That marks a reversal from earlier this month’s rally, when the yen touched multi-month highs on bets on BOJ tightening. Renewed dollar strength since then has pushed USD/JPY back toward 160, reviving Friday’s intervention debate.
The 160 Line Traders Keep Watching
The dollar’s push toward 160 yen revives memories of this summer, when Japan and the US carried out their first coordinated yen-buying intervention since 1998. Japan spent a record 15.4 trillion yen, about $97.4 billion, defending the currency in the month through August 26.
Officials have stopped short of naming a trigger level, framing their concern instead around how fast and chaotic the yen’s swings become. But the market treats 160 as the threshold where intervention becomes likely again.
The post Yen's Best Day in Two Weeks: Is Intervention Risk Now the Real Ceiling? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Bitcoin, Ethereum outlook as US Iran talks revive Hormuz reopening hopes
Bitcoin and Ethereum have remained near their recent highs as renewed talks between the United States and Iran have brought another proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz into focus, with lower oil prices potentially easing one of the pressures that has kept Treasury yields elevated.
Summary
- Iran has proposed a seven day plan to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before comprehensive nuclear talks begin with the United States.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum could benefit if a lasting reopening pushes oil prices lower and eases some of the inflation and Treasury yield pressure weighing on risk assets.
- Similar attempts to reopen Hormuz have raised market hopes several times in recent months before negotiations or agreements broke down.
- Bitcoin faces resistance around $86,700 to $87,400, while Ethereum would need to reclaim $2,700 before another attempt at the recent $2,789 high.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday that Tehran had proposed a seven day plan to Washington under which hostilities would stop before the Strait of Hormuz reopened and comprehensive negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program began.
The proposal, delivered through intermediaries, calls for an end to hostilities including in Lebanon, the release of at least $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, sanctions waivers for Iranian oil and the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade. Iran would reopen the strait at the end of the seventh day if those conditions were met.
Araghchi said Tehran was ready to start implementing the plan as soon as Washington agreed. An American official familiar with the discussions described talks through mediators as positive and constructive, but said Washington would not rush into an agreement.
Markets have already shown some sensitivity to the possibility of progress. WTI crude fell more than 2.5% to around $89 a barrel on Sept. 22 after Iran signaled that Hormuz could reopen within a week, while Brent dropped below $98. Bitcoin was trading close to $86,000 at the time.
Bitcoin has since settled near $84,000 after reaching $87,392 earlier in the week. Ethereum has held around the $2,600 area following its recent rejection near $2,800.
Bitcoin and Ethereum face high yields despite recent gains
Any agreement between Washington and Tehran would arrive while crypto traders are dealing with a difficult U.S. macro backdrop.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on Sept. 16 to a range of 3.75% to 4%, saying inflation remained elevated even as economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace.
Bond yields have continued climbing since the decision. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield reached 5.11% on Sept. 24, up from 4.96% a day earlier, while the 30 year yield moved to 5.40%. The 10 year real yield climbed to 2.76%.
Rising oil prices have been part of that pressure. Brent moved above $100 earlier in September as fighting around Iran raised concerns over energy supplies, while the prospect of another Fed rate hike has kept borrowing costs in focus.
Crypto.news previously reported that Bitcoin held near $84,000 as the 10 year Treasury yield approached 5.2% during trading on Sept. 24. Oil prices were rising at the same time, while Fed officials kept another rate hike on the table.
Bitcoin has so far absorbed much of that pressure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $2.65 billion in net inflows over five sessions through Sept. 23, while wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC accumulated 113,950 BTC from July 15 through Sept. 23.
The five day ETF inflow streak included $346.98 million on Sept. 23 after nearly $999 million on Sept. 21 and $714.7 million the following day.
Exchange balances have moved in the same direction. More than 13,800 BTC left Binance on a net basis in one day, the largest daily outflow from the exchange since 2023, while Bitcoin remained above $84,000.
Ethereum has followed a similar recovery, though its latest rally stalled below $2,800. ETH traded near $2,675 on Sept. 23 after reaching roughly $2,789, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs received $162.2 million on Sept. 22 and another $105 million the following session.
The token remained above its longer term four hour moving averages during the pullback, with Ethereum holding above its 50, 100 and 200 period averages even after losing the shorter 20 period average.
Why traders have heard Hormuz reopening plans before
The latest negotiations are not the first attempt this year to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Washington and Tehran reached a 14 point memorandum of understanding in June that declared an end to the war and provided for commercial vessels to resume using the waterway. Iran was expected to facilitate safe passage without charges for 60 days while the two countries worked toward a final agreement.
The arrangement soon began to break down.
Tehran interpreted the agreement as recognizing its authority to manage traffic through Hormuz, while Washington and Gulf states maintained that commercial vessels should have unrestricted passage without Iranian control.
By July, Iran had fired on vessels it said were using an unauthorized route and declared the strait closed again. Washington revoked a license allowing Iranian oil sales on July 7, while Tehran accused the United States of violating the memorandum. President Donald Trump subsequently described the initial ceasefire as over.
Attempts to restore traffic continued through the summer.
Iran said in August that it was preparing another set of conditions for reopening the strait after mediators approached Tehran. Officials discussed a shipping corridor with Oman, but Iran tied a full reopening to an end to the war, removal of sanctions, compensation and the lifting of what it described as a U.S. blockade.
Ceasefire arrangements announced in April and June had both been intended to restore maritime traffic but failed to hold, according to Reuters.
The latest proposal therefore resembles parts of the June arrangement but compresses the timetable. The earlier memorandum gave Washington and Tehran as long as 60 days to negotiate a final agreement. Araghchi’s new plan would reopen Hormuz after seven days and move directly into comprehensive nuclear negotiations.
What happens to Bitcoin and Ethereum if Hormuz reopens?
A lasting reopening could affect Bitcoin and Ethereum primarily through oil prices, inflation expectations and Treasury yields.
Before the war began in February, roughly one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the waterway has remained heavily disrupted since then.
Restoring regular traffic would remove some of the supply uncertainty that has supported crude prices during the conflict. The initial market response to Iran’s Sept. 22 signal offered an early example, with WTI dropping more than 2.5% and Brent falling below $98.
Lower energy prices could, in turn, reduce one source of inflation pressure at a time when the Fed has returned to raising rates.
The relationship has already worked against crypto during periods of renewed fighting. On Sept. 2, Ethereum fell below $2,400 as fresh U.S. Iran strikes pushed Brent toward $95 and the 10 year Treasury yield above 4.8%. ETH reached an intraday low of $2,356 during the session.
Conditions became more restrictive later in the month as oil moved above $100 and Treasury yields crossed 5%. Ethereum traded near $2,475 on Sept. 15 before recovering after the Fed decision and the subsequent crypto rally.
A sustained decline in oil following a Hormuz reopening would not guarantee lower interest rates. The Fed’s Sept. 16 statement said inflation remained elevated, while domestic spending, productivity and capital investment remained firm.
It could, however, remove part of the energy pressure that has complicated the inflation outlook. A decline in inflation expectations and Treasury yields would reduce the return available on government debt, changing one of the macro conditions that has recently worked against Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin’s first major test would remain the $86,700 to $87,400 area, where the latest rally stalled. The previous range high near $82,000 has become an important level below the market, while the $80,000 area sits beneath it as the former upper boundary of Bitcoin’s earlier trading range.
A move back through $87,400 alongside falling oil and Treasury yields would put the January yearly open near $87,722 back into focus. Continued ETF demand would provide another source of spot buying after the recent five session inflow run.
Ethereum would first need to recover $2,700 before challenging the recent $2,789 high and resistance around $2,800. Its latest pullback left support around $2,648, followed by liquidity near $2,630 and the larger $2,532 to $2,550 area.
Another failed deal could keep oil and yields in focus
The opposite setup remains possible given the fate of previous agreements.
Iran’s seven day proposal requires Washington to lift its naval blockade, provide sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian assets before Hormuz is reopened. The United States has acknowledged constructive discussions through mediators but has not accepted those conditions.
A renewed breakdown in negotiations could leave shipping restrictions in place and restore some of the geopolitical premium recently removed from crude.
Bitcoin has already shown that higher yields can interrupt its rallies even when underlying spot demand remains firm. After reaching $87,392 on Sept. 21, BTC retreated toward $84,000 as Treasury yields moved higher, despite consecutive ETF inflows and continued accumulation among larger wallets.
Ethereum faces a similar macro constraint after failing to hold its move toward $2,800. The nearest downside levels remain around $2,648 and $2,630, while a deeper decline would bring the $2,532 to $2,550 area back into view.
Araghchi said Iran was prepared to begin implementing the seven day plan once Washington agreed and suggested reaching an agreement before the U.S. midterm elections would be preferable. Mediated communication between the two sides continued after his meeting with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in New York, while Iranian officials said further meetings could take place in the coming days.
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