Read Steven Cress’ Article on Seeking Alpha
Bundle the Alpha Picks and Quant Growth & Income Portfolios Now!
This transcript was generated by AI. It is not curated or reviewed and is provided for convenience and information purposes only. The accuracy and completeness of the transcript are not guaranteed.
Nicole Benjamin: Hey, everybody. It’s Nicole Benjamin, your host here at Seeking Alpha, to bring to you another episode of The Weekly Grade. And joining us for today is none other than VP of Quantitative Strategy here at Seeking Alpha, Steven Cress himself, the wonderful guy behind a lot of the amazing products you see on site, our Alpha Picks portfolio, our Pro Quant portfolio, and our newest Quant Growth and Income portfolio. So follow him back on Seeking Alpha. Make sure you check out his articles, see if there’s anything that might be in there for you. And Steve, thank you so much for joining us today.
Steven Cress: Hey, thank you very much for organizing it.
NB: Absolutely. Now, I wanna jump right in. Today, we are talking about Pagaya Technologies and an AI-powered fintech holding. It’s considered a quant strong buy on the site, and this is despite experiencing significant pullback from its recent peak. So how does Pagaya’s network model convert loan volume and institutional power growth into operational leverage without requiring this aggressive marketing spend?
SC: Well, they’re doing a great job on it. As you can see by our factor grades, on the right-hand side, they are a very profitable company, so they’re managing to do it. And actually, you can see that profitability grades increased to B plus from a B six months ago, so the trend is going in the right direction. So this means that their revenue and earnings are converting to profitability, so their leverage has been applied well, and they’re taking leverage off the table and turning that into profits. You can see analysts are very positive as well. When you look at these factor revision grades, it has improved to an A.
That means analysts are taking their estimates up from where they previously were and at a much faster pace. You could see actually six months ago compared to the sector, it had a D grade, which meant analysts’ revisions were lower than other companies for this sector. But their fortunes have turned around, profitability has improved, and analysts are actually taking their revisions upwards. So in the last ninety days, as a matter of fact, we have had eight analysts take up their earnings estimates and zero have taken it down. So that’s really positive.
And for the upcoming quarter, which is November sixth, you’ve also had eight analysts revise up their estimates and zero have revised it down. So lots of positives on that front. You could see looking at the quant rating history, we did have a strong buy, and then we got slightly negative on it for a while. That was probably when we saw the momentum grade drop to an F and the revisions grade drop to D. So I want to sell and stay to hold for quite a period of time. But a couple months ago, we went into the buy territory and the strong buy, and it’s obvious from the improvement in the factor grades why. So currently, the company is it’s in the IT sector. It’s a software company.
It ranks two out of one hundred and sixty-six companies that we cover in software, and their long-term EPS growth rate is tremendous. It’s at a six hundred percent difference in terms of its growth compared to this sector. ROE, as I said is improving as well. If you actually look at the ROE growth rate, it is a forty-three percent growth rate in their ROE versus the sector at seven percent. And from a valuation standpoint, the company looks really attractive as well. It has an A plus grade on value, and its multiple is dirt cheap. It’s currently at a multiple of five point five times versus the IT sector at a multiple of twenty-three times.
So it’s literally at a seventy-six percent discount. Now, what I, I like today and what you led with is there has actually been a pullback in the stock. It is well off its fifty-two-week high. The stock currently is eighteen dollars and seventy-three cents. The fifty-two-week high was thirty-eight dollars. But we’re inter– we’re entering sort of an interesting type of year. Typically, most people know September is seasonally weak. But what also happens is with stocks that are well off their fifty-two-week highs, many institutions try to clear their books out of their losers by the end of October. So sometimes weak stocks that are hovering around that fifty-two-week low, they’ll remain low.
Today, this company’s got a market cap of one point seven billion, so it’s a really small cap. There’s a seller out there despite the strong fundamentals, despite that analysts are taking their estimates up. Notably, there are other strong buys out of the stock. If you look at the consensus from Wall Street analysts, they have a strong buy on it, and the consensus of Seeking Alpha contributors is a strong buy, as well as the quant. So that’s sort of the trifecta. You have three independent research sources all indicating strong buy on the stock right now. So it looks very timely. I’d say take advantage and be opportunistic of the pullback.
Institutions, of course, as I mentioned, they tend to clear some of their losers out by the end of October. That’s when their calendar year ends. So could remain weak for a little bit longer, but you wanna take advantage of that.
NB: All right. Well, I wanna jump right over Steve and talk about some of the products we have here on site, our Pro Quant portfolio, our Alpha Picks portfolio, and our newest Quant Growth and Income portfolio. And in this side-by-side comparison, the Pro Quant portfolio, Alpha Picks, and QGI, how should investors be evaluating the trade frequency, asset universe, and the rebalancing cadences when deciding which of these quantitative strategies will be a great match for their investment objectives?
SC: I’m glad you brought it up. So all three of these products are designed to be really user-friendly. Individuals don’t always have a lot of time. To do the research on their own. Even though Seeking Alpha’s premium site will rank all the stocks, and you could see if they’re strong buy, buy, or sell, it’s still a lot of research. So these products help bring forward our top strong buys. But it does it at a different pace. Some people like to be really aggressive, some individuals don’t like to be aggressive. So the Pro Quant portfolio was designed for long-term capital appreciation, but for people who like a high frequency of ideas.
So the portfolio is always fixed at thirty stocks, but it rebalances weekly, which means, on average, every week you have two to three new ideas coming out. So for individuals that like that pace of ideas, the Pro Quant portfolio would be the product. For individuals who want long-term capital appreciation, but not quite that high frequency of having to get new ideas every week, Pro Alpha Picks spreads it out to only two ideas a month. So on the trading date closest to the first of the month and the fifteenth of the month, an individual or subscriber would receive those emails. So you only get two new ideas a month as opposed to two to three a week with the Pro Quant portfolio.
And then for the Quant Growth in Income, that’s actually focused on people that want a combination of capital appreciation and income generation. So the common thread with that fixed portfolio of thirty stocks is every single one of them pays a dividend. So it’s got a nice little yield, and many investors like to have that yield. We refer to that as more of the all-weather type of product. So it may not have quite the performance of a PQP or an Alpha Picks, but it’s more of a steady eddy. So three different portfolios for three different risk appetites.
NB: Right. Well, I also wanna bring up some stats here that we have about these portfolios. And just considering what’s on the screen, all of these portfolios are demonstrating significant total return over their respective market benchmarks. So in an environment where rate expectations and sector rotations create this short-term price volatility, how does sticking strictly to the factor grades prevent losses during these market pullbacks?
SC: Well, I wouldn’t say that factor grades prevent losses. Typically, when you hit periods that are really volatile, stocks with strong fundamentals actually do sell off quite a bit because when anxiety is high and sentiment is more fearful, people tend to take profits in stocks, and they’ll go to safe haven sectors or safe haven asset classes such as cash or consumer staples or utilities. However, you can dull that downward volatility on your portfolio by d– with diversification. So a good approach I often refer to is having a barbell approach.
You wanna be able to focus on stocks that offer that upside potential and also be opportunistic when the prices decline, but you also wanna have that income generation on the other side of the barbell, and that helps to sort of minimize any downward volatility. Companies that tend to pay a dividend, you get paid to wait, so the stocks typically do not come off as much as in a volatile period. So we have a combination of both together in that barbell approach, where you’re focusing on both capital appreciation and income generation. It tends to really smooth out any downward pressure that’s created by volatility.
NB: All right, Steve. Well, thank you so much. I wanna jump over and wrap things up there. For everybody that’s listening in, go ahead and click the follow button on Steve’s page. Go read his article, see if there’s something in there that might be right for you. And then just for some housekeeping, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Content is offered for information purposes only. Unless stated otherwise, any and all individuals participating in the video are third parties that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Unless stated otherwise, the views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. The accuracy and completeness of content shared cannot be guaranteed. Seeking Alpha does not take account of your objectives or financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, US investment advisor, or investment bank. Thank you so much.
Read Steven Cress’ Article on Seeking Alpha
Bundle the Alpha Picks and Quant Growth & Income Portfolios Now!
You must be logged in to post a comment Login