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American Outdoor Brands, Inc. (AOUT) Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Operator
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the American Outdoor Brands, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded.
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Liz Sharp, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma’am.
Elizabeth Sharp
Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, and good afternoon. Our comments today may contain predictions, estimates and other forward-looking statements. Our use of words like anticipate, project, estimate, expect, intend, should, could, indicate, suggest, believe and other similar expressions is intended to identify those forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements also include statements regarding our product development, focus, objectives, strategies and vision, our strategic evolution, our market share and market demand for our products, market and inventory conditions related to our products and our industry in general, and growth opportunities and trends.
Our forward-looking statements represent our current judgment about the future, and they are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Risk factors and other considerations that could cause our actual results to be materially different are described in our securities filings. You can find those documents as well as a replay of this call on our website at aob.com. Today’s call contains time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of this time, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from our statements today.
A few
On Modi government’s 10-point agenda.
I think it is almost brilliant to put at the head of the list the fact that bureaucrats should be encouraged to take decisions without fear. In a sense he’s gone to the heart of the problem of the paralysis. The Indian government is extraordinarily large and it is difficult to try and believe that one leader can make all the change. This is a federal system. In a large bureaucracy you cannot exercise the transformation of any situation without coopting bureaucracy.
So empowerment becomes important. It’s a good sign. If you remember, one of the major apprehensions about Modi was an autocratic style of functioning. By putting right at the top of the agenda the empowerment of the bureaucracy I think one has to appreciate and admit that it is definitely not the act of an autocrat.
On disbanding ministerial groups.
Without making much heavy weather of it, he’s been a case study for business schools on how to exercise leadership and have an impact from day one in the new job. He’s setting a clear agenda and is making a clear promise of making a measurement of progress made against that clear agenda. For example, making an agenda for 100 days will make it clear what the matrix would be for measuring success of that agenda. It is important that every day some incremental progress is made towards that agenda and that progress is communicated transparently. He has got his team ready, which is a focused team. To me, every decision needn’t be a big-bang reform but a signal of proactive decision-making and removal of red tape and bureaucracy. And a promise of even speedier decision-making in the future.
On the government’s immediate priorities.
Back in the 1980s, I had written a column headlined ‘Roads to Nowhere’. At that time we were not building enough roads. (Among) America’s competitive advantages happen to be its highways and its transportation network. Those are like blood vessels to the economy and they create job opportunities. Therefore, in a funny sense, the best thing anyone can do to create an inclusive economy is ironically through building roads, because access to markets or the lack of access to markets is one of the most discriminatory things one can do to the poor, especially to the rural poor. It’s not a point that we automatically think of but roads are a mechanism to create inclusiveness in the economy. So, I think, the faster he does that the better for the economy. There is huge economic data to show that roads (give) a bigger boost to rural income than even irrigation. It will help power dual income for families and will allow a kind of diversity from dependence on agriculture which creates productivity.
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On India-US ties.
I’ve been here (in the US) for quite a while now. The Indian elections have generated enormous interest. Most of the diplomatic and political pundits are now urging the leadership in Washington not to miss out on what they feel is the diplomatic opportunity for the US in reaching out to and rebuilding a very strong relationship with India. They feel US has lost ground because of the visa controversy and that they should now rediscover the ground and build a strong relationship.
There is a feeling that both Japan and China have both stolen a march on building this kind of relationship with India. There is going to be, in my opinion, a strong effort from decision-makers here to reach out to the prime minister and his colleagues to rebuild the relationship.
On the perception that the new government will tilt more toward the east — Japan, China, South Korea.
There has been significant interest shown by Japan. It is a country with a liquidity overhang and an investment surplus. Modi is well aware of that. Why Japanese investors have been holding back is because they did not perceive any of the promises we’ve given to be gaining traction.
In the area of construction and large industrial projects, they can take pole position in large projects here. That being said, everybody speculated what the position of the PM and the Cabinet would be and the PM is his own man. My contention is that our PM is a practical man and he knows that any kind of vindictiveness has no role in foreign policy.
I think his whole objective is to enhance India’s economic health and through that gain what should be India’s rightful role in the world. The fact that we are the world’s largest democracy and we are all aware that power and a role in global affairs for a nation comes from economic strength. I think, in his own way and at the right time, he will respond positively when the correct signals are sent out from the US administration.
On FDI in defence
We have been consistent from the time we entered into JVs with foreign companies. We have not changed our stance. Right from the beginning we have been representing to the government that it is a positive step to allow at least 49% investment through the automatic route. Because it encourages the foreign partner to deploy the technology into the JV. Otherwise, there is wariness on their part to provide 100% support to the joint venture. So if you really want the best technology to be manufactured here, then (it should be) a minimum of 49% stake, which we have always advocated.
On Mahindra’s investments plans.
We have never shied away from making investments. Even during downcycles, we never stopped our investments. We invested in the Chakan automotive plant when the economy was down; we also invested in the tractor plant in Zaheerabad when the tractor market was witnessing a downcycle. When the market improved for tractors we were able to ramp up our output. We always have a long-term view of the economy. We have consistently been investing. In defence, for example, if the government starts buying again for the much-needed upgrade then we’ll certainly make the investments. Pawan (Goenka) has gone on record to say that we are considering a Rs 4,000-crore investment, which is independent of the new developments. It was something we were going to do.
The central government has complete power with a clear mandate, but directives from the Centre have to be executed well at the state level. So, there are many things that are still not in Modi’s hands, says Raamdeo Agrawal, Joint Managing Director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services in an interview with Narendra Nathan and Sanket Dhanorkar.
Are we looking at a multi-year bull run?
I think the market has not yet priced in the full potential of the economy. For the first time, a true nationalist has come to power with a clear majority. There is a new-found energy across the nation. My sense is that the market has not yet understood the difference between 300-plus seats for NDA and 272-plus seats for BJP alone. Look at how the cabinet posts have been assigned — BJP allies have got limited posts and their negotiating power is diminished. Complete power is in the hands of the government. The political scenario is drastically different now. The economy is on the cusp of a historical positive change.
It is the same vehicle, but the driver has changed. It is now being steered by a formula-one driver. So, the acceleration will be dramatic. It will become visible very quickly. Today we are growing at 4.5 per cent. Growth is likely to pick up pace rapidly in the next few years. A lot of things will happen in five years. It will be interesting to see the index level at that time. In the process, investors will make tons of money, because the market will discount that growth two years in advance. It will not wait for the fifth year. If all domestic and global factors align, markets will go through the roof.
Are there challenges to the fragile economic recovery?
The current optimism is because a major variable — the shambolic political setup — has been corrected. There is no doubt that the new government has been fully empowered in this election; the mandate has been given to an extremely competent individual. Right now, everybody is bullish. But one must have tempered expectations. Finally, directives from the Centre have to be executed well at the state level. Otherwise it will be a waste. There are many things that are still not in Modi’s hands.
A lot of other factors will also play a role. Good monsoons, favourable global environment, peaceful borders, etc., can change the entire scenario. But, only time will tell how many stars will align. So, a lot will depend on external factors. I am also keenly watching how the new government tackles inflation, which is just a symptom of a much deeper problem somewhere else. The government has to address supply-side bottlenecks. A weak currency cannot make a strong country. That is why, inflation must go down. It will be the beginning of development, investments, and so on.
The rally, so far, has been driven by hope. When will fundamentals take over?
News headlines, and making money are two entirely different things. We should not get carried away by the headlines. The focus must be on who will actually make money. In most cases, it will be a company which is making money right now. Very rarely will a company that is broke today make money tomorrow, unless there is a complete change in business dynamics. Today, we do not have anything to go by. So, wherever there are anomalies in the economy, these will come back to normal levels. Right now, it is only about the promise of a better tomorrow. Some of these promises will have to take shape in the budget.
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What should be the first priority for the new government?
India has to become much more business friendly. Finally, the country needs to create jobs for its rising young population. Who will create these jobs? More than the government, it is the businesses which will create jobs. Businesses can create jobs only if the business environment is friendly. They also cannot sustain growth without creating jobs. So, the government has to become business friendly. All hurdles should be removed. We need businesses to take more risks as it will result in more jobs.
Will mid-cap stocks continue to perform better than large-caps for now?
It really depends on the company. Mid-caps were lagging for quite some time; smallcaps even more. Eventually it has to converge. Large-caps are now looking highly priced. Investor appetite is limited at these levels. Most of the action is in the low-quality, low-priced segment. Smaller investors are clearly buying low-quality stuff, thinking that the price is low. But, even if it moves into high valuation territory, low quality will remain so. This is where the entire game ends. Sure, high quality stocks are expensive now. But that doesn’t mean you should have junk in your portfolio. If you find quality at a reasonable price, buy with modest expectations. Such names are few and far between. But, even if you get 3-4 such ideas over one year, you can make money. The challenge is to have patience and hold on to the investment. Filling with junk will be a disaster, but if it works, you get a multi-bagger. Investors in high quality may underperform in a rallying market, but will emerge better off over an entire cycle.
Can we expect an earnings upgrade anytime soon?
A 12-15 per cent earnings upgrade is definitely possible this year. As the economy recovers, sectors, such as cement, steel and automobiles, will pick up pace. Oil & gas can also contribute to earnings growth. Right now corporate profits are contributing around 4 per cent to the GDP, which is near the bottom of the band. At the peak of a cycle, this can go upto 7-8 per cent. Assuming 13-14 per cent nominal growth in GDP, it will double in rupee term to Rs 220 trillion in next six years. Now the question is whether the current profit of Rs 4 trillion will move up to Rs 8 trillion or Rs 16 trillion. If it maintains the current ratio, it will go to Rs 8 trillion. If it touches the upper end of the band, it will go to Rs 16 trillion. If this happens and the PE multiple remains the same, the market will go up four times. Profits will zoom the moment the economy moves from 5-6 per cent to 8-9 per cent growth. That is why there is a potential for the market to go up to the stratospheric levels from here.
Business
Chubu Electric Power Company, Incorporated 2027 Q1 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:CHUEF) 2026-07-31
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ET Now: Talking of expectations from Narendra Modi, do not you think too much hope and money in essence is riding behind one man? Despite his good intentions, there are structural problems in the economy and even the Prime Minister does not quite have a magic wand?
KV Kamath: If you look back to 10 years ago, the economy was getting into near double digit growth even with all the structural problems. Now you have a leader who has a known bias for fixing things and making sure that things work. It is the same set of structure, the same set of people who are driving this. You have the right leader who can drive the effort.
ET Now: The other day we had Mr. Birla meet the Finance Minister and as he walked out of the meeting, he said he expects the economy to revive in three to six months. He says he is going to start investing in India now. We have not heard too many corporate leaders say that. You have a pulse of the mood of corporate India. When do you think will the corporate leaders start investing?
KV Kamath: The first sense comes from the market. It is the collective wisdom of the marketplace that there is action and we will move with speed. That improves the confidence level of industry. Now we need to see whether some of the ground conditions that are needed for people to get back to an investment mode are going to change. Today I read that with a large slate of reforms or projects which have been stuck are going to be addressed in the next few days. If that happens, you will see a sea change in the investment mindset, as it were.
ET Now: It could happen in three months itself. Is that what you think?
KV Kamath: I think that between three and six months it could start happening. But we want incremental investment to happen. There is enough to harvest in the first six months in terms of stuck projects and so on.
ET Now: The one cue that corporate India will also look forward to is the budget. Given the nature of the mandate that we have, the strength that this government have in the Parliament, would you expect tough reforms in this budget itself?
KV Kamath: I do not want to call or second-guess what somebody is working on. But I think it will be a budget where you try to have fiscal discipline and whatever is needed to get that discipline. Now in what measure, in what combination, is for the government to call. I think one thing that people will look for in the budget is fiscal discipline and a way to getting the deficit under control, say, over a three-year period. If it is well-constructed and well-articulated, you will see the cheer going up.
ET Now: Does the 4.1% number look a little tricky to you?
KV Kamath: If you eliminate waste, you eliminate what is theft and eliminate what is not needed, the 4.1 is achievable.
ET Now: When do you think fiscal and monetary policy will start working in tandem? When do you expect rates to turn?
KV Kamath: Regarding the monetary policy, we always say that let us see the constructive design of a fiscal deficit. We know what it is and where it will end. Once they see that construct as it were, for this year and, say, for two years on the line, then I should believe that they should have greater confidence to tinker with the rates, or inflation itself has to start dropping. We see several people have given several solutions starting with release food stocks, pushing the pedal on APMC reform, and so on. I am sure again this is something that the government will very quickly understand and take all the steps or some of the steps which would give policymakers confidence to get interest rates down. We should see it happen in this fiscal, in the next 12 months. I think it ought to start happening in the first six months.
ET Now: A quarter percent or more, through the course of the year?
KV Kamath: I have no call on this. Let us see what happens. Everything will depend on where the deficit number comes in and whether you are able to get the inflation rate moving down. If these turn out positive, rates could move fast.
ET Now: What is your outlook on growth in the short term, medium term, and long term?
KV Kamath: My long-term number does not have a single digit. It is two digits. So you can make a guess on it.
ET Now: During the term of this government?
KV Kamath: I think it will happen during the term of this government.
ET Now: The first term itself?
KV Kamath: It will happen in the first term of this government. That is for sure. If they progress the way they mean to, I am reasonably sure that we will see two-digit rate in the first term of this government itself.
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More than 132,000 fireworks rockets sold nationwide have been recalled after federal safety regulators warned they could explode before reaching their intended height, posing explosion and burn hazards.
The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced Thursday that Jake’s Fireworks is recalling about 132,440 World Class Fireworks “Skull Strobe” rockets.
The agency said the rockets can explode prematurely before reaching their intended height, creating a risk of serious injury. No incidents or injuries have been reported.
A representative for Jake’s Fireworks did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.
MORE THAN 120K REFRIGERATORS RECALLED AFTER 34 FIRES AND ONE REPORTED DEATH
A recalled World Class Fireworks “Skull Strobe” rocket that the CPSC says can explode before reaching its intended height, posing explosion and burn hazards. (CPSC / Unknown)
The recall involves World Class Fireworks “Skull Strobe” rockets mounted on wooden sticks and packaged in black boxes featuring a skull graphic, the brand name, product name and a warning label. The affected products carry SKU code 1004351, which appears near the bottom of the packaging.
Consumers should stop using the recalled fireworks immediately and contact Jake’s Fireworks for a full refund, according to the CPSC.
Customers will be asked to return the recalled products to the retail location where they purchased them or the nearest Jake’s Fireworks retail location.
PUBLIX EXPANDS FROZEN BERRY RECALL AMID E COLI OUTBREAK THAT SICKENED 12
The retail packaging for recalled World Class Fireworks “Skull Strobe” rockets sold nationwide between March 2025 and June 2026. (CPSC / Unknown)
The recalled fireworks were sold at fireworks stores nationwide from March 2025 through June 2026 for between $12 and $25.
Jake’s Fireworks Inc., based in Pittsburg, Kansas, imported the recalled products, which were manufactured in China.
Beautiful colorful firework display over sea on celebration night. (iStock / iStock)
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Consumers seeking additional information can contact Jake’s Fireworks toll-free at 855-587-8816 from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. CT Monday through Friday, email stroberecall@jakesfireworks.com or visit the company’s recall webpage.
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Financial regulators in the Trump administration are proposing changes to a banking industry rule that critics say has been diverted from its original purpose to funneling funds from financial institutions to left-wing advocacy groups.
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Friday announced a proposed rule that would make changes to the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). The law was enacted in 1977 to prevent so-called “redlining” – a practice in which some banks wouldn’t give loans in low-income or minority neighborhoods, or offer depository services.
Among the proposed changes are provisions aimed at increasing the focus on lending and ensuring community development grants and donations go to the intended communities, rather than being diverted to other activities. Critics have argued that banks have met regulators’ requirements in part by donating to advocacy groups.
Comptroller Jonathan Gould said in a post on X that, “Under the Biden Administration, the Community Reinvestment Act became an onerous tax on community banks that failed to drive investment into the very regions they were meant to serve.”
“Today’s proposed reforms will help ensure the CRA is no longer used as a social credit score for banks, nor as a funding mechanism for activist NGO networks under the guise of community development,” Gould wrote.
TRUMP ADMIN WARNS BANKS ON LENDING TO UNAUTHORIZED WORKERS
Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould said the regulatory changes will prevent the CRA from being used as a “social credit score for banks.” (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Key GOP lawmakers in Congress who serve on panels with oversight of the financial services committee applauded the regulatory move on social media.
Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., who is a member of the House Financial Services Committee and chairs the subcommittee on financial institutions, said, “For years, left-wing activist groups have weaponized the Community Reinvestment Act to pressure financial institutions far beyond Congress’s original intent.”
“Instead of expanding access to credit, the CRA has too often become a tool to limit access to capital. I welcome the Trump Administration’s commonsense reforms to restore the law to its intended purpose and refocus it on lending and community investment,” Barr added.
TRUMP ADMIN TO TELL BANKS IMMIGRATION STATUS MAY BE CONSIDERED IN MORTGAGE, CREDIT DECISIONS
Key GOP lawmakers on Congress’ banking industry panels praised the proposed regulation. (J. David Ake/Getty Images)
Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., who serves on the Senate Banking Committee and chairs its subcommittee on housing and community development, said in a post on X that she welcomed the proposal to “restore a more practical” framework for the CRA.
“Community banks should be focused on expanding access to credit, supporting small businesses, and strengthening local communities, not navigating unnecessary regulatory burdens or subsidizing activist causes,” Britt said.
WALL STREET REVEALS TRUMP EXECUTIVE ORDER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FEDERAL REGULATORY PRESSURE
Conservative activist Christopher Rufo called the proposed rule a “big deal” and a “win for Scott Bessent” in a post on X, adding that the CRA “has been used as a mechanism for shaking down banks to fund left-wing activism.”
Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould said the proposal would help propel economic growth while reducing unnecessary regulatory burdens. (Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The proposed rulemaking from the OCC and FDIC would aim to ease burdens on banks with $10 billion or less in assets, giving them more flexible supervision without subjecting them to data collection, maintenance and reporting requirements.
It would also focus regulation on credit services, excluding deposit services, and streamline other requirements to improve the clarity, transparency and objectivity associated with CRA evaluations for banks of all sizes.
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Gould added that the OCC will continue to implement the vision of President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent by “taking steps to reduce unnecessary regulation and propel economic growth on Main Street.”
Most manufacturing plants in the United States run on equipment that predates the smart factory era. A 2003 CNC mill, a PLC installed during the Clinton administration, a packaging line that speaks a serial protocol nobody under forty has heard of.
These machines still make good parts, which is exactly why nobody wants to rip them out. The problem appears when the business asks for data: OEE dashboards, downtime analysis, energy monitoring, predictive maintenance. Suddenly the plant discovers that its most productive assets are also its most silent ones.
The good news is that you do not need a capital project to make legacy equipment talk. What you need is a structured approach to connectivity. Here is how to do it, step by step.
Step 1: Audit what you actually have
Before buying anything, walk the floor and build an asset inventory. For every machine you want data from, record four things: the controller make and model, the communication interface it exposes (Ethernet, RS-232/485, proprietary fieldbus, or nothing at all), the protocol it speaks, and the firmware version.
This sounds tedious, and it is. It is also the single highest-value activity in the entire project. Plants that skip this step end up buying gateways that cannot talk to half their equipment, or discovering mid-project that a critical machine only exposes data through a maintenance port the vendor locked years ago.
A typical brownfield audit in a mid-sized US plant surfaces somewhere between five and fifteen distinct protocols: Modbus RTU and TCP, Allen-Bradley DF1 and EtherNet/IP, Siemens S7, Fanuc FOCAS, GE SRTP, Mitsubishi MELSEC, plus a few vendor-specific oddities. Write them all down. This list drives every decision that follows.
Step 2: Decide which data matters before you collect any of it
The instinct is to collect everything and sort it out later. Resist it. Every tag you poll consumes network bandwidth, gateway capacity, and storage, and most of it will never be looked at.
Start from the business question instead. If the goal is downtime analysis, you need machine state, fault codes, and timestamps. If it is quality, you need process parameters tied to part IDs. If it is energy, you need power draw per asset. A focused list of 20 to 50 tags per machine usually covers the first two or three use cases. You can always expand later; it is much harder to untangle a data lake full of unlabeled noise.
This is also the moment to define naming conventions. A tag called Line3_Press2_MotorTemp_degF will still make sense in five years. A tag called N7:42 will not.
Step 3: Put a protocol translation layer between machines and everything else
Here is the architectural decision that determines whether the project scales or stalls. You have two options for getting data out of legacy controllers.
The first is point-to-point integration: custom drivers, vendor utilities, or scripts that connect each machine directly to each consuming application. This works for one machine and one dashboard. It collapses at plant scale, because every new machine or application multiplies the number of connections you have to build and maintain.
The second, and the one that has become standard practice in industrial environments, is a dedicated connectivity layer: an industrial connectivity platform such as Kepware by Velotic that sits between the machines and the applications. The platform speaks the native protocol of each device on one side (Kepware alone ships with more than 150 drivers covering most controllers built in the last three decades) and presents the data through open standards on the other. Applications no longer care whether the source is a 1998 Modbus device or a brand-new OPC UA server; they see one consistent interface.
The practical benefit for legacy equipment is significant. A serial-only machine gets connected through a serial-to-Ethernet converter, the connectivity server polls it in its native protocol, and from that point on it behaves like any modern asset. No PLC reprogramming, no firmware upgrades, no downtime beyond the commissioning window.
Step 4: Normalize the data into open standards
Getting bits off the machine is only half the job. The other half is making those bits usable by systems that were never designed for factory floors: MES, historians, cloud analytics, ERP.
Two standards do most of the heavy lifting here. OPC UA provides secure, structured, vendor-neutral access for on-premises systems such as SCADA and MES. MQTT, often with the Sparkplug B specification, handles lightweight publish-subscribe messaging to cloud platforms and IIoT applications. A good connectivity layer outputs both simultaneously from the same source data; Kepware, for example, can serve a legacy Modbus tag to a local MES over OPC UA while publishing the same tag to a cloud platform over MQTT, so you are not forced to choose between the plant network and the cloud.
Normalization also means adding context. Raw register values become named tags with engineering units, scaling, and metadata about which line, cell, and asset they belong to. Do this once, at the connectivity layer, and every downstream application inherits clean data. Do it separately in every application, and you will spend years reconciling mismatched numbers between reports.
Step 5: Treat security as part of the design, not an afterthought
Connecting a 20-year-old controller to the network changes its risk profile. Legacy protocols like Modbus have no authentication and no encryption; anyone on the network segment can read or write to the device.
The mitigation is architectural. Keep native, insecure protocols confined to a segmented OT network. Let the connectivity server act as the security boundary: it talks Modbus or DF1 downward, inside the protected segment, and exposes only encrypted, certificate-authenticated OPC UA or TLS-secured MQTT upward. Disable write access for any tag that does not strictly require it. Log who connects and what they read.
This pattern, sometimes described as a secure data diode for legacy equipment, lets you extract value from old machines without extending their attack surface into the enterprise network.
Step 6: Start with one line, then scale the template
Pick one production line for the pilot. Ideally one with a mix of old and new equipment, a clear business question, and a supervisor who wants the data. Connect it, build the first dashboard, and measure the result for four to six weeks.
Then, and this is the part most projects miss, turn what you built into a template: the tag naming convention, the driver configurations, the security settings, the documentation. Rolling out to the second line should take a fraction of the time the first one did. Plants that follow this pattern typically connect their remaining lines in weeks rather than months.
The bottom line
Legacy machines are not a barrier to plant data; unmanaged protocol diversity is. Audit your assets, define the data you need, translate everything through one connectivity layer, normalize into OPC UA and MQTT, secure the boundary, and scale from a pilot. The machines that have been quietly making parts for twenty years have plenty to say. You just need to give them a common language.
Business
Nintendo Shares Fall Nearly 6% as Surging Global Memory Chip Prices Threaten Switch 2 Profit Margins
Shares of Nintendo fell 5.72% on Friday, dropping 466 yen to close at 7,679 yen in Tokyo trading, even as the broader Nikkei 225 index surged more than 4% during the same session, underscoring how directly the ongoing global memory chip shortage continues to weigh on the video game maker’s stock even amid a broader market rally.
Friday’s decline stood out against the backdrop of a powerful rebound across Asian technology stocks, driven by blowout earnings from Microsoft, Amazon and Meta Platforms that sent chipmakers surging worldwide. But that same rally in memory chip prices, driven by tight global supply and surging demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, has become an increasingly acute problem for Nintendo specifically, since the company relies heavily on memory components to manufacture its Switch 2 console.
Nintendo has repeatedly flagged rising memory chip costs as a direct threat to its profitability throughout 2026. When the company reported earnings in February, its stock slid as much as 11% in Tokyo trading after Nintendo missed market estimates for quarterly revenue and flagged mounting headwinds from what it described as an unprecedented shortage of memory chips, even as profit growth for the nine-month period remained strong. The company’s shares fell again in May, dropping between 7% and 8.4% after Nintendo confirmed it would raise the retail price of the Switch 2 in European, U.S. and Japanese markets by 7% to 20% later in the year specifically because of higher component costs, with memory chips cited as the primary driver.
The company’s most recent full-year results, reported in May, showed operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 31 climbing nearly 28% to 360 billion yen, or roughly $2.29 billion, aided by a near-doubling of net sales. Despite that strong headline growth, the profit figure still fell short of market expectations. Nintendo’s forecast for the current fiscal year proved considerably more cautious, with the company projecting operating profit of just 370 billion yen, well below market forecasts of 480 billion yen, and forecasting a sales decline of 11.4% year-on-year to 2.05 trillion yen. Nintendo specifically guided for weaker Switch 2 sales in the current fiscal year, citing the planned price increases tied to component cost pressure, with the company forecasting fiscal 2027 Switch 2 unit sales of 16.5 million, down from 19.86 million units sold in the prior year.
Not every analyst has viewed Nintendo’s recent stock weakness as fully justified by the underlying fundamentals of the business. Speaking following the company’s May guidance, Morningstar analyst Ito described Nintendo’s shares as undervalued relative to the company’s longer-term prospects. “We view Nintendo’s shares as undervalued,” Ito said. “The market appears overly focused on near-term headwinds and conservative guidance, while underappreciating the long-term earnings growth from over 100 million Switch users migrating to the new platform and increasing game purchases.”
Nintendo’s stock has continued to face pressure from sources beyond memory chip costs alone throughout the year. Shares fell more than 7% in June after the company’s latest Nintendo Direct presentation disappointed investors by failing to unveil a new mainline entry in the Super Mario franchise, with the showcase instead centered on a remake of “The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time” and other previously established titles. Reports had separately indicated that the next major Mario title would not arrive until 2027 rather than during Nintendo’s ongoing 40th anniversary celebrations for the franchise this year.
Nintendo’s next detailed quarterly earnings release is scheduled for August 6, according to the company’s investor relations disclosures, giving the market its next formal opportunity to assess how the combination of rising memory chip costs, planned price increases and the broader software release pipeline are affecting the company’s financial trajectory heading into the back half of the fiscal year.
The stock’s 52-week trading range spans from a low of 6,544 yen to a high of 14,795 yen, according to recent trading data, illustrating the scale of the decline Nintendo shares have experienced over the past year even as the underlying Switch 2 console has continued to post strong unit sales figures relative to Nintendo’s own historical hardware launches. Nintendo’s current price-to-earnings ratio stands at approximately 21.07, with the stock currently offering a dividend yield of roughly 2.85%.
Friday’s decline adds to what has already been a volatile year for Nintendo’s stock, with shares having fallen nearly 45% over the trailing 12-month period at various points during 2026, according to recent market analysis, even as the company’s Switch 2 console continued setting new sales records relative to prior Nintendo hardware generations. With global memory chip prices continuing to climb amid what rival Samsung Electronics has separately warned could be a supply shortage persisting through 2028, investors are likely to keep close watch on how Nintendo’s profit margins hold up in the coming quarters, particularly given the company’s heavy reliance on memory components across its flagship gaming hardware.
As Chris Best, the co-founder and chief executive of Substack put it last week: “It’s getting harder to tell what’s real on the internet.”
Announcing a new tool, external designed to let readers on the newsletter platform detect AI-generated writing, Best cited other research that has found up to 40% of writing on social media is now fake or AI-generated.
“Platforms that reward fakeness will create a race to the bottom,” Best said.
LinkedIn, a social media platform focused on work, introduced a button on its platform this week that allows any user to report if a post or a comment appears to be AI-generated.
“AI slop is a top priority for all of us,” LinkedIn’s chief product officer Hari Srinivasan wrote on the platform.
In just the last couple of months, he said the platform had “blocked billions” of attempts to post AI-generated comments.
“Every day we are now catching hundreds of thousands of automated comment attempts,” Srinivasan said.
Like Snap, LinkedIn said it is not rejecting the use of AI entirely and users that use AI tools to “refine” their posts should not get caught up in efforts to combat AI slop.
Nonetheless, LinkedIn is removing an automated prompt that would show up for users writing a post offering to “enhance” it through the use of AI. It will go back to a simple proofreading tool.
YouTube, the video platform owned by Google, also this month updated its policies, external around what kind of content can be monetised by creators.
Research from last year found scores of channels on YouTube that were solely AI-generated content, external, many of which had millions of subscribers and some of which made millions of dollars in revenue.
In an effort to discourage YouTube from filling up with what the platform calls “inauthentic content”, earlier this month the site broke down into three categories the kind of videos that will not be allowed to make money through it: generic, repetitive, or template-based.
Those styles of content are much easier to make, and quickly, with the use of generative AI tools.
YouTube’s trust and safety chief Matt Halprin said in an interview, external on the updated rules that, while AI tools can help people with their content, they are more frequently being used to create fake and low-quality videos.
“The same technology really enables great stuff,” Halprin said.
“But it also enables stuff that’s kind of content farming, and that’s the stuff that we don’t want to have.”
Conference Call Participants
Arpine Kocharyan – UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
John Heinbockel – Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division
Randal Konik – Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Molly Baum – Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Anthony Bonadio – Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Benjamin Chaiken – Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division
Weili Chen – Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division
Eric Des Lauriers – Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division
Chris Woronka – Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Owen Rickert – Northland Capital Markets, Research Division
Logan Reich – RBC Capital Markets, Research Division
Andrew Chasanoff – Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., Research Division
Presentation
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the Life Time Group Holdings Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] It’s now my pleasure to turn the call over to Connor Wienberg, Vice President, Capital Markets and Investor Relations. Connor, please go ahead.
Connor Wienberg
Senior Vice President of Treasury & Investor Relations
Good morning. Thank you for joining us for the Second Quarter 2026 Life Time Group Holdings Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Bahram Akradi, Founder, Chairman and CEO; and Erik Weaver, Executive Vice President and CFO. During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, which involve a number of risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements made today.
There’s a comprehensive discussion of risk factors in the company’s SEC filings, which you are encouraged to review. The company will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted diluted EPS, net debt to adjusted EBITDA or what
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