IDFC First Bank does not plan to raise deposit rates in the near term after meaningfully cutting them across all buckets last quarter, MD and CEO V Vaidyanathan said in an interview with Saloni Shukla. He added that stress in the microfinance book is now under control, with the bank having put in place several guardrails around the number of loans a borrower can hold concurrently.

Could you share the reasons for the tepid PAT growth?

The representative core profit for this quarter is ₹746 crore, which is 145% over the corresponding period of last year. But we took the impact of the fraud at our Chandigarh branch this quarter itself. There were certain one-time income tax refunds, so we reduced them from normal profits. Our provisions came down because the JLG or MFI portfolio collections normalised to pre-crisis levels of over 99.5%.

Has the Chandigarh episode been fully accounted for?
Yes, fully accounted for. The recovery process is on. Investigations and court processes are involved. We are working on it.

Do you believe the current level of NIM is sustainable? What would be your target range for FY27?

Our net interest margin was about 10 bps lower than shown due to fewer days in Q4FY26, so it is 5.83 bps only and not 5.93 bps. In FY27, we expect our NIM to be stable around the FY17 level of about 5.75%. We are also moving toward low-yield, low-credit-cost segments as a bank.
Loan growth has been strong. What will be the key growth drivers?
In the last year, our growth mainly came from mortgage loans, vehicle loans, consumer loans, wholesale loans and business banking. Together, these segments contributed 87% of the incremental growth last year. Going forward, we will also need to grow our rural banking business because we are short of priority sector loans. Because we are an infrastructure wholesale DFI bank, we have been short on many subcategories of priority sector loans since our origin. So, we need to grow the rural and PSL book. Also, we are a relatively small player in the Indian system, we can grow 19-20%, but we don’t want to play pre-determined shots.Deposit growth has also been robust. What will be your strategy to sustain this momentum?
For us, we build ourselves as an institution that lives into eternity. Secondly, we tell our employees that every product we make we design ethics into the product construct. We also focus on use of tech. Over time, people will hopefully experience these things with our bank, and this may help. Also, we are trying to make a good app with in-house skills. We will go more app than the branch route, branches are not the future.

Given the competition for deposits in the system, do you anticipate raising rates?
We just reduced rates meaningfully across all buckets last quarter, so we don’t intend to increase them anytime soon, except for some marginal tinkering if required.

Earnings from India’s bellwether software services exporters have reinforced investor concerns about the sector’s growth prospects, signaling that the downturn in their stocks has further to run.

Infosys Ltd., the second-largest outsourcer, forecast annual sales growth below analysts’ estimates on Thursday, following a profit miss at smaller rival HCL Technologies Ltd. two days earlier. Both stocks declined, with the latter hit by at least half a dozen analyst downgrades. A gauge of the sector plunged more than 5% on Friday to close at its lowest level since June 2023.

The market reaction underscores the two-pronged challenge being faced by India’s $315 billion tech industry — a weak global macroeconomic environment amid the Iran war that has weighed on discretionary tech spending, and the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, which is threatening to disrupt their business models.

The selloff in stocks has deepened since Tata Consultancy Services kicked off earnings on April 9, with nearly $115 billion now wiped off the value of the IT gauge over four months. That has also acted as a key drag on India’s broader market given that tech shares carry a weightage of about 10% in the benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index.

“We continue to be cautious on the sector,” Surendra Goyal, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a note, citing high competitive intensity and continued impact of AI on existing business.

Given the fears of AI-driven disruption, a crucial metric for investors is how effectively India’s IT outsourcers adapt — both in how quickly they embed AI into their own delivery models and how successfully they reposition themselves in the value chain.
Infosys has sought to capitalize on the rapid progress of AI by embedding the technology into its offerings in a bid to curb costs and convince corporations to maintain or enhance their IT budgets. Larger rival TCS has partnered with OpenAI to build AI data centers in India, and now its nearing more such deals with other tech giants.The companies rose to prominence in the late 1990s by helping Western firms solve the Y2K bug, which had threatened computer chaos at the turn of the millennium. Since then, they have survived fluctuations in global growth from a series of crises, as well as the dawns of new technologies from mobile telecommunications to cloud computing.

For some market watchers, the monthslong selloff has made valuations attractive. The IT gauge is trading at less than 17 times its one-year forward earnings, down from 30 at the start of last year. The benchmark Nifty 50 trades at more than 18 times.

“This is a sector with no price froth, little valuation excess, and a weak business cycle already reflected in prices,” said Sahil Kapoor, a strategist at DSP Mutual Fund. “At current prices, terminal-value risk appears limited, and we remain overweight.”

Still, the decline in share prices following the latest earnings shows investors want to see more concrete results before turning positive. The NSE Nifty IT Index is now down almost 25% in 2026, making it the worst-performing sector gauge in India. It is trailing the Nifty 50 for a second year.

“Discretionary and non-AI technology spending is under pressure, as clients are delaying large, multi-year projects due to economic uncertainty and unclear returns from AI,” said Anurag Rana, senior technology analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “Companies lack visibility beyond a single quarter, with CFOs unable to provide clear medium-term guidance amid ongoing uncertainty.”

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ALTO, GPRE either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

ALTO and GPRE are current positions in the DOMO Concentrated All Cap Value Composite. More information on the composite can be found on our website. DOMO Capital Management, LLC (“DOMO”) is a state-registered investment adviser in the states of California, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin. The Adviser may not transact business in states where it is not appropriately registered, excluded, or exempted from registration. Individualized responses to persons that involve either the effecting of transactions in securities or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation will not be made without registration or exemption. Justin R. Dopierala is the President and Founder, and a registered investment adviser representative of DOMO. Additional information about DOMO is disclosed in our Form ADV, which is available upon request. All information contained herein is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to provide investment advisory services in any jurisdiction. The investment strategy discussed herein may not be suitable for everyone. Investors need to review an investment strategy for their own particular situation before making any investment decision. We believe the information obtained from any third-party resources to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness. The opinions, estimates, projections, comments on financial market trends, and other information contained herein constitute our judgment and are as of the date of the material, are subject to change without notice at any time in reaction to shifting market conditions and other factors, and should not be construed as personalized investment advice. DOMO has no obligation to provide any updates or changes to such information.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is poised to weaken further on Monday and through the coming week, after holding within a relatively stronger 92.50–93.50 range over the past fortnight.

Persistent dollar demand, a swelling oil import bill and steady foreign portfolio outflows continue to weigh on the currency despite RBI’s efforts to curb speculative activity and limit market participation by oil companies.

The rupee is expected to open with a gap on Monday at 94.40-94.50, weaker from its previous close of 94.25/$.

“Over the past few days, we see RBI tolerating weaker levels. On Friday, it intervened at 94.30/$; before that we saw intervention at 94.15/$. And I expect this tolerance for weaker levels to increase, as sentiments are negative amid prolonged peace talks,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors.

He expects the rupee to open at 94.35, and trade within a range of 94 to 94.50 on Monday, with RBI likely stepping in at 94.50/$.

Traders expect crude oil prices to climb back above the $100-a-barrel mark, after briefly dipping below that level on Friday. The decline, seen around 4pm IST, was driven by market speculation that Iran’s foreign minister was expected to arrive in Islamabad with a small delegation for potential peace talks with the US.
However, with no such development materialising, market participants now expect geopolitical risk premiums to add pressure on oil prices.“Peace talks aren’t happening and there are conflicting comments between Iran and the US. This creates uncertainty, and hence, I expect the crude price — which was briefly below $100 per barrel — to again increase. This should cause the rupee to open weaker at around 94.40/$ levels,” said Ritesh Bhansali, deputy CEO, Mecklai Financial Services.

Mumbai: Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) plans to invest around ₹42,000 crore in capital expenditure in FY27 to add nearly 5 GW of clean energy capacity, Executive Director Sagar Adani said at the company’s latest earnings call.

In FY26, the company added over 5 GW of greenfield renewable capacity, the highest annual addition globally by any company outside China, it said. This has taken AGEL’s total operational portfolio to 19.3 GW, reinforcing its leadership in India’s renewable energy sector.

The management indicated that the company retains the capability and financial flexibility to scale up to 7-8 GW annually. However, it is moderating the pace of additions to better align with transmission infrastructure and grid availability. AGEL reiterated that its long-term target of reaching 50 GW capacity by 2030 remains intact.

The company’s Khavda renewable energy project in Gujarat, which has around 9.4 GW of operational wind, solar, and hybrid capacity, continues to drive its growth.

Alongside generation, the company is stepping up investments in energy storage, including Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and pumped storage projects (PSPs) to enhance reliability and address renewable intermittency.

The Nifty appears to be entering a pause rather than a reversal, said technical analysts. While near-term momentum has weakened after the recent rebound, most see the index holding key support zones and using dips as buying opportunities. Analysts expect a trading band between 23,400 and 24,500, with a decisive breakout needed to revive directional strength, even as the underlying structure remains constructive for a gradual move higher in the coming weeks.

DHARMESH SHAH
HEAD OF TECHNICALS, ICICI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Going ahead, we expect the index to oscillate within the broader range of 23,400– 24,500. This consolidation would make the market healthy, as it strengthens the market’s foundation for an eventual push towards the 24,800 mark (aligned with the 200-day EMA) in the coming weeks. Thereby, any decline from hereon should not be construed as negative; instead, it should be capitalised on to accumulate high-quality stocks on dips, backed by strong earnings, as strong support is placed at 23,100.

Trading Strategy
We expect the index to hold its key support zone of 23,500, being its former gap support and the 50% retracement of its recent rally (22,182–24,601). Hence, any decline towards 23,390–23,500 should be used as a buying opportunity for a target of 23,800. In the process, strong support is placed at 23,270 levels.
TOP BETS FOR THE WEEK JSW Steel: Buy at Rs 1,240–1,266 | Stop loss at Rs 1,115 | Target Rs 1,445

The stock looks attractive after a strong rebound from the lower band of its long-term rising channel. Structurally, the 52-week EMA has acted as a “floor” since July 2022, with buying demand re-emerging near this level, supporting a favourable risk-reward at current levels.

Power Grid: Buy at Rs 306–316 | Stop loss at Rs 289 | Target Rs 352

Structurally, the stock has broken out of a long-term falling trendline resistance connecting the highs of October 2024 & 2025. The current pullback has formed a bullish flag pattern above the 52-week EMA, signalling base formation near an elevated support zone and an incremental buying opportunity with risk-reward.

SUDEEP SHAH
HEAD – TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, SBI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
The recovery rally from the recent low of 22,182 has lost momentum, shifting from a sharp rebound into a phase of correction and consolidation. Nifty slipped below 23,900 and ended the week down 1.87%, largely due to profit booking after the prior upmove. Technically, the index has broken below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating weakening short-term strength. Momentum indicators also reflect softness, with RSI slipping below key levels and MACD showing a gradual loss of bullish momentum. This suggests a likely range-bound phase rather than a strong directional move. From a levels perspective, the 23,700–23,650 zone is a crucial support area, with a breakdown potentially dragging Nifty towards 23,300. On the upside, resistance is placed at 24,200–24,250, and only a sustained move above this band can revive bullish momentum.

Trading Strategies
Since the index is trading in a range with volatility, we advise traders to go long on Nifty on a breakout above 24,250, with a stop loss at 24,000 for a target of 24,700.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Cochin Shipyard: Buy at Rs 1,664 | Stop loss at Rs 1,580 | Target Rs 1,850–1,950

Cochin Shipyard is trading above its key moving averages across timeframes. Post consolidation, the stock has seen a strong breakout, with buying visible on all dips. Relative strength versus other defence names and the broader market remains favourable.

Aster DM Healthcare: Buy at Rs 705 | Stop loss at Rs 660 | Target Rs 750–770

It continues to trade in a steady uptrend, holding firmly above its key medium- and long-term moving averages. We expect it to move towards Rs 750–770.

TANMAY SHAH
RESEARCH HEAD, SIHL

Where is Nifty headed this week?
Technically, the index remains influenced by ongoing geopolitical developments, keeping volatility elevated. For the week ahead, Nifty is likely to find strong support around 23,600, which could act as a base for consolidation. As long as this level holds, the broader structure remains constructive, with a potential resumption of the uptrend towards the 200-day moving average placed near 25,125. A decisive move beyond 24,450 would further strengthen bullish momentum.

Trading Strategy
Recommend a bull call spread to position for near-term upside. Traders may consider buying the 23,900 Call and selling the 24,400 Call of the 5th May expiry. The strategy offers a favourable risk-reward with limited downside, while capturing gains if Nifty trends higher towards the upper resistance zone. It is well-suited for a moderately bullish view amid an improving technical setup.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK

Coal India: Buy at Rs 455 | Stop loss at Rs 441 | Target Rs 478–486

The stock shows relative strength in a weak market, consistently holding above its 20-week moving average, indicating strong support. Sustained closes above this level signal a bullish bias.

Graphite India: Buy at Rs 724.8 | Stop loss at Rs 690 | Target Rs 765–780

Technically, the stock has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the higher timeframe and delivered a decisive upside breakout, indicating structural strength. The trend remains bullish post-breakout