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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — After a dominating 7-1 win over Curaçao to open the 2026 World Cup, Germany needed some second-half heroics from Deniz Undav and the rest of the substitutes to overtake Ivory Coast with a 2-1 victory. Instead of fighting for a spot in the knockout round during the third and final group stage match, Germany has the luxury of resting the starters against Ecuador because Germany has already clinched first place in Group E. This is the first time Germany has advanced to the knockout rounds since winning the World Cup in 2014.

Ecuador Faces a Must-Win Scenario

Ecuador will desperately need points to stay alive. They have been scoreless in both matches thus far, losing 1-0 to Ivory Coast and gutting out a 0-0 draw with Curaçao. While it’s mathematically possible, for now, that Ecuador can still reach the round of 32 with a single point, they would be in a much stronger position with an upset win over Germany.

Match Details

The match is being played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Thursday, June 25, 2026, with kickoff at 4 p.m. local time. The match is being broadcast on FOX and Telemundo in the United States. Betting markets list Germany as the favorite at -110, with the draw at +310 and Ecuador at +260.

Significant Lineup Changes Expected

With Germany already through to the knockout stage, manager Julian Nagelsmann is expected to make wholesale changes to his starting eleven. Coming into the lineup are Oliver Baumann, David Raum, Antonio Rüdiger, Waldemar Anton, Leon Goretzka, Angelo Stiller, Deniz Undav, and Nick Woltemade. Going out are Manuel Neuer, Nathaniel Brown, Nico Schlotterbeck, Jonathan Tah, Aleksandar Pavlović, Felix Nmecha, Jamal Musiala, and Kai Havertz.

Injury Concerns Factor Into the Rotation

Beyond simply resting key starters, Germany also enters the match dealing with a pair of injury absences. Nico Schlotterbeck is out with an ankle issue, while Nathaniel Brown is sidelined with an adductor injury, further necessitating squad rotation regardless of the match’s reduced stakes for Die Mannschaft.

Undav’s Remarkable Scoring Rate

Among the most notable storylines heading into the match is the continued dominant form of Germany’s super-substitute. Deniz Undav has three goals in 58 minutes, by far the highest scoring rate at the 2026 World Cup, and he also has two assists to his name — a level of efficiency that has made him one of the tournament’s most talked-about impact players, despite operating almost exclusively off the bench so far.

A Historic Opportunity for a Perfect Group Stage

Germany has not won all three group stage matches at the World Cup since 2006, when they also defeated Ecuador in the third match — giving Thursday’s fixture a layer of historical symmetry, as Germany looks to replicate that exact feat against the same opponent two decades later.

A Notably Homegrown Roster

While several other teams in this tournament have featured a majority of players who weren’t born in the country they represent, only two Germany players hold that distinction: Felix Nmecha, born in England, and Waldemar Anton, born in Uzbekistan — reflecting a squad composition that stands out as unusually domestically rooted compared to many of its competitors at this year’s tournament.

Ecuador’s Key Figures

Ecuador’s all-time leading scorer, Enner Valencia, has racked up 49 goals in 106 caps for the national team, making him the player most likely to be looked to for a breakthrough if Ecuador hopes to finally find the back of the net at this tournament. A player to watch on the Ecuadorian side is midfielder John Yeboah, who was born in Hamburg, Germany, adding an intriguing subplot to a match against the country of his birth. Ecuador enters the match with a recent form record of draw, win, win, loss, draw across their last five matches in all competitions.

The Prediction

Germany wins 3-1. Ecuador’s struggles in the attacking third will continue against Germany. Germany’s normal reserves will receive some well-deserved playing time and leave a lasting impression with a dominating 2-0 lead at halftime. Ecuador will score their first and last goal of the 2026 World Cup before conceding a breakaway goal in the dying minutes as they throw numbers forward while hoping to secure a draw.

What’s at Stake for Both Sides

For Germany, Thursday’s match offers little beyond an opportunity to complete a perfect group stage and give valuable minutes to reserve players ahead of the knockout rounds, where Die Mannschaft will need a full squad operating at peak fitness. For Ecuador, the stakes could not be higher, given the team’s complete inability to score across its first two matches and the very real possibility that the tournament could end for them on Thursday regardless of the final result, depending on how other results in the group fall.

With Germany already secured as Group E winners, attention will largely center on how the reserve-heavy lineup performs against an Ecuador side desperate for its first goal and first win of the tournament. Should Ecuador fail to find a positive result, their World Cup campaign will likely come to an end after the group stage, marking a disappointing finish for a team that managed to keep both of its first two matches close despite its continued offensive struggles. For Germany, a comfortable, injury-free performance from the rotated lineup would represent the ideal outcome heading into the knockout rounds, where the team’s full-strength roster will need to be at its sharpest against considerably stiffer opposition.

With the search for Nancy Guthrie continuing, there is one clue from the ransom notes that could lead to her location.

What Investigators Are Looking For

Retired FBI agent Jason Pack told Page Six that ransom notes have a “fingerprint” to them, and that some key things to pay attention to in them are word choice, tone, and how the demand is structured in order to identify that person.

“If the first two read like the same person wrote them and everything that followed reads differently, that tells the task force something meaningful about who they’re actually dealing with versus who decided to insert themselves into the story once it went international,” Pack said.

He added that investigators would be able to determine if the ransom notes are real based on whatever meaningful information is in them.

A Key Detail in the Earliest Notes

Pack pointed to a specific piece of evidence within the earliest communications received in the case. “The first note apparently contained specific operational details that weren’t public at the time,” Pack said. “Based on what’s been reported, the language and tone of those first two notes compared to everything that came after is where the real analytical work is happening right now.”

Analyzing the Language of a More Recent Note

One of the recent notes said the 84-year-old was dead and that she was “buried with nature.” Ray Carr, a former FBI profiler, told NewsNation’s Brian Entin that the abductor could be feeling guilty about the situation because they said her death was “unintentional,” or that they are trying to psychologically distance themselves.

“The wording is deliberate,” Carr said. “I think it is emotionally controlled and I think it focuses on minimizing culpability.”

A Note That May Be More About the Sender Than the Victim

Carr also said the abductor could feel the need for control. “If this is written by the offender, then this is all about them, and has nothing to do with Nancy,” Carr said.

How the Case Began

Guthrie was believed to be abducted from her home in the early hours of February 1, 2026, based on the time her pacemaker stopped communicating with her phone. She was reported missing the next day.

A Case That Has Stretched Nearly Five Months

Guthrie’s disappearance from her Tucson, Arizona, home has now stretched almost five months without a confirmed suspect or resolution, despite the extensive efforts of investigators and the wide range of leads — including the doorbell camera footage of a masked individual and the multiple ransom notes received by media outlets — that have emerged throughout the case. The conflicting nature of the notes themselves, with some appearing to suggest she remained alive while others claimed she had died, has continued to deepen the uncertainty surrounding her fate.

Why Linguistic Analysis Matters in Cases Like This

The kind of forensic linguistic analysis Pack and Carr describe has become an increasingly important tool in cases involving anonymous written communications, where investigators look beyond the literal content of a message to the underlying patterns of word choice, sentence structure, and emotional tone that can reveal something about the author’s identity, state of mind, or genuine connection to the events described. Distinguishing between notes that may have originated from someone with real knowledge of the case and those potentially sent by individuals seeking to insert themselves into a high-profile investigation has become a central challenge for the task force working the case.

The Distinction Between Genuine and Opportunistic Communications

Pack’s comments suggest investigators are actively working to separate what he describes as the earliest, potentially authentic notes from later communications that may not share the same authorship. That distinction carries significant weight for the broader investigation, given that genuine operational details — knowledge of specifics about Guthrie’s home or circumstances that were not publicly known at the time — would be far more difficult for an opportunistic impersonator to replicate convincingly.

With investigators continuing to analyze the language, tone, and structure of each communication received throughout the case, the question of which notes reflect genuine knowledge of Guthrie’s whereabouts or fate remains central to the ongoing investigation. Given the continued involvement of retired law enforcement professionals like Pack and Carr in publicly analyzing the available evidence, pressure appears likely to continue building on the FBI and Pima County Sheriff’s Department to provide further updates on the case’s status. Anyone with information related to Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance is urged to contact the FBI, with a combined reward exceeding $1.2 million still available for information that leads to a resolution of the case.

Anthropic, one of America’s most valuable artificial intelligence firms, has accused the Chinese e-commerce and technology giant Alibaba of “brazenly” and “illicitly” extracting the capabilities of its Claude AI model, in what it has branded the largest campaign of its kind yet seen.

In a letter to senior members of the US Senate Banking Committee, the San Francisco-based developer said operators linked to Alibaba conducted almost 29 million exchanges with Claude using roughly 25,000 fraudulent accounts. The activity, it said, ran between 22 April and 5 June and amounted to “the largest campaign to illicitly extract Claude’s capabilities” recorded to date, according to the company’s account first reported by CNBC.

The letter, addressed to committee chairman Tim Scott and ranking member Elizabeth Warren, urged Congress to penalise the companies behind such attacks and to tighten the measures designed to stop American technology being siphoned off by overseas rivals.

According to Anthropic, the operation relied on what are known as “distillation attacks”, a technique in which answers are extracted from a stronger AI model to train a weaker one, sidestepping the export controls that govern the sale of model weights themselves.

The Alibaba-linked operators are said to have targeted Claude’s most commercially valuable functions, among them agentic reasoning, software engineering proficiency and the ability to see longer, more complex tasks through to completion. Attacks of this kind, Anthropic argued, are now being run on an “industrial scale” so that Chinese firms can harvest American AI capabilities and repackage them as their own.

For Anthropic, the financial stakes are considerable. “Distillation attacks turn hundreds of billions of dollars in American investment and research and development into a massive subsidy for our geopolitical competitors,” the company wrote.

It is not the first time the firm has raised the alarm. In February, Anthropic said it had identified three separate “industrial-scale” distillation campaigns linked to the Chinese labs DeepSeek, Moonshot and MiniMax. The Alibaba episode, on its figures, dwarfs all three.

The letter also pointed to alleged activity that Anthropic said could threaten the US military, citing the Department of Defense’s assessment that Alibaba, alongside the carmaker BYD and the search firm Baidu, has ties to China’s armed forces.

The companies have rejected any such suggestion. Alibaba this month filed a lawsuit against the US government seeking removal from the Pentagon’s so-called 1260H list, which designates firms judged to be Chinese military companies. From 30 June, the Defense Department will be barred from buying goods or services from any listed business.

American developers have repeatedly accused Chinese competitors of using distillation to build rival systems at a fraction of the cost of training a frontier model from scratch. OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, has levelled similar claims in the past.

The accusations land at a delicate juncture for Anthropic. The company is widely regarded as a leading AI developer and, alongside OpenAI, is being tipped for a stock market debut that could rank it among the most valuable businesses in the world. OpenAI has already given staff a taste of the rewards on offer, with employees recently cashing out billions of dollars in a share sale.

Yet Anthropic’s frontier technology has also become a lightning rod for security concerns. Its most advanced models, including Mythos, have alarmed governments over their capacity to find and exploit weaknesses in computer systems, prompting finance ministers to warn that the technology could threaten the stability of the banking system. Those same capabilities sit at the heart of Washington’s tightening grip on who may access the models at all, with Britain among the governments seeking an exemption from a US ban on Anthropic’s most powerful systems.

For Britain’s small and medium-sized businesses, increasingly reliant on AI tools to compete with larger rivals, the dispute is a reminder that the technology underpinning their productivity gains is now bound up in a high-stakes contest between the world’s two largest economies, one in which the rules are still being written.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

This article was written by

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Ben Harrison’s firm, ‘Mypower’ is powered by the sun, so he feels he cannot complain about it.

His teams fit solar panels to the rooftops of farms and factories across the country, cutting their electric bills and carbon emissions.

But in the heatwave, there is no escape from the sun on a roof.

“The temperature of that heat reflecting off the roof is significant,” Harrison explained.

“We need to look after those guys out there. Here we are in the middle of the summer, and they are like cats on a hot tin roof, dare I say it.”

Like many firms, Mypower has protocols that kick in at 30C – extra water breaks, cool boxes carried onto the roof and so on. But with rooftop temperatures now well over 35C and in full sun, they have been shortening their working days this week.

The teams now start at 06:00, two hours earlier than normal, and finish at noon instead of 16:30. This, Harrison admitted, is costing the firm money.

“We’ve had to delay a job, slow things down, and be working short time, but we’ve got to look after the guys that work for us.”

Available for over a year

The US dollar is the backbone of global trade and held by governments around the world as a safe haven in times of crisis.

It’s so powerful that countries like Ecuador and Panama have adopted the dollar as their official currency, while Argentina for many years has tried to “dollarize” its economy.

But what happens if nations and private institutions were to lose trust in the dollar?

How did we get here? Well, after WWII the world order was re-established in part by tying the monetary systems to the value of the dollar, backed by gold. But since 1971 President Nixon cut that link to gold and the entire exchange system has since been tied directly to the dollar itself, its historic success and access to its financial markets.

That success gave America what was dubbed an “exorbitant privilege” to print money without fear of inflation and to build up national debt without consequence.

It also enables the US to flex its muscles on the international stage by imposing sanctions on countries and cutting off access to their all-important currency. That has led some countries, most notably China, to call for the dollar to be replaced as the world’s reserve currency.

How difficult would it be to untangle the dollar from global trade, can any other nations offer the same conditions which has allowed the US currency to thrive, and what would happen if the dollar’s role was replaced by newer digital currencies which operate outside traditional government control?

Presenter: Professor Ben Ansell
Producer: George Dabby
Editor: Damon Rose

Contributors:
Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times
Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley
David Shrier, Professor of Practice, AI & Innovation with Imperial College Business School
Stephanie Flanders, Head of Economics and Politics at Bloomberg News
Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor-in-Chief of The Economist

Material from:
British Pathé, “Bretton Woods Money Pact Signed” (1946)

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