The war in the Middle East is poised to deliver the most severe blow to global energy markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank warned this week, with consequences stretching from oil fields to farmlands to the dinner tables of the world’s poorest households.

Key takeaways

• Brent crude is forecast to average $86/barrel in 2026 as Middle East disruptions slash global oil supply by roughly 10 million barrels per day.
• Fertilizer prices jumping 31% could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity this year.
• Developing economies hit hardest: Growth slows to 3.6% while inflation climbs to 5.1%, with over 60% of commodity exporters and 70% of importers facing weaker-than-expected performance.

In its April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, the Bank projects energy prices will surge 24% this year, their highest level since 2022, while overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 16%, driven by soaring energy and fertilizer costs alongside record-high prices for key metals.

The trigger is a historic disruption to oil flows. Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 35% of global seaborne crude, have produced the largest oil supply shock on record, cutting global supply by about 10 million barrels per day. Brent crude is now forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up from $69 last year.

The ripple effects are severe. Fertilizer prices are projected to climb 31%, driven by a 60% jump in urea prices, threatening crop yields and farmers’ incomes worldwide.

If the conflict drags on, up to 45 million additional people could be pushed into acute food insecurity this year, according to the World Food Programme. Meanwhile, precious metals prices are forecast to rise 42% as investors seek safe-haven assets amid deepening geopolitical uncertainty.

The macroeconomic damage is already being priced in. Inflation in developing economies is now projected to average 5.1% in 2026, a full percentage point above pre-war expectations.

Developing economies are expected to grow just 3.6% this year, with more than 60% of commodity exporters and 70% of commodity importers worldwide facing weaker growth than anticipated in January.

World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill did not mince words:

“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation. The poorest people will be hit the hardest. All of this is a reminder of a stark truth, war is development in reverse.”

The outlook could darken further. Should hostilities escalate or disruptions last longer than projected, Brent oil could average as high as $115 a barrel, pushing developing-economy inflation to 5.8%, a level surpassed only in 2022 over the past decade.

Deputy Chief Economist Ayhan Kose urged targeted action over sweeping intervention: governments, he argued, should deliver rapid, temporary support to the most vulnerable rather than broad fiscal measures that risk distorting markets and depleting fiscal buffers.

The message from Washington is unambiguous, the world is entering a period of compounding commodity stress, and the countries with the least room to absorb it will bear the greatest cost.

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Brent crude futures fell 64 cents, or 0.59%, to $107.53 a barrel by ‌2308 GMT ⁠after settling ⁠down $2.23 on Friday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $101.10 a barrel, down 84 cents, or 0.82%, following a $3.13 loss on Friday.

“For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business,” Trump ⁠wrote in a ‌post on his Truth Social site on Sunday.

Oil prices remained above $100 a barrel with no peace deal in sight and ⁠traffic in the Strait of Hormuz still limited. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran continued over the weekend with the countries assessing responses from each other.

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“Peace talks have been stalled as both sides refuse to move on their respective red lines,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
Trump has made a nuclear deal with Tehran a priority, while Iran has proposed to set aside nuclear issues until after ‌the war ends and the foes agree to lift opposing blockades on Gulf shipping. On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, or ⁠OPEC+, said they will raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June for seven members, the third consecutive monthly rise.

The increase is the same as that agreed for May minus the share of the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC on May 1. However, the higher volume will remain largely on paper as long as the Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

A United Airlines international flight struck a light pole and tractor trailer while approaching Newark Liberty International Airport on Sunday, injuring a truck driver on the ground, authorities said.

Flight 169, traveling from Venice, Italy to New Jersey, made contact with the pole during its descent at around 2 p.m., the airline and police told FOX Business. The plane landed safely and taxied to the gate. All 221 passengers and 10 crew members were unharmed.

“Upon its final approach into Newark International Airport, United flight 169 came into contact with a light pole,” United said in a statement to FOX Business. “The aircraft landed safely, taxied to the gate normally and no passengers or crew were injured.”

UNITED PILOT REPORTS MIDAIR DRONE SCARE NEAR AIRPORT DURING LANDING APPROACH

United said its maintenance teams are inspecting the aircraft for possible damage and conducting a full safety review. (Patrick Oyulu via Storyful / Storyful)

United said its maintenance teams are inspecting the aircraft for possible damage and conducting a full safety review. The crew members on board have been temporarily removed from service.

New Jersey State Police said troopers responded at around 1:58 p.m. near the New Jersey Turnpike.

A preliminary investigation found the plane’s landing gear and underside struck a pole and a tractor-trailer, sending the pole into a Jeep traveling on the roadway. 

The tractor-trailer driver was taken to a hospital with non-life-threatening injuries, according to New Jersey State Police.

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Federal authorities have also launched investigations into the incident.  (Patrick Oyulu via Storyful / Storyful)

“The crash remains under investigation, and no additional information is available,” New Jersey State Police told FOX Business.

Federal authorities have also launched investigations into the incident. 

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) confirmed the aircraft struck the pole at roughly 2 p.m. local time and said it is investigating.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) also opened a probe and said an investigator is expected to arrive in Newark on Monday.

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United Airlines planes are seen at the gate at Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey, on May 7, 2025.  (KENA BETANCUR/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

“The agency has directed United Airlines to secure and provide both the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder to support the investigation. A preliminary report outlining the facts and circumstances of the event is expected within 30 days,” NTSB told FOX Business in an email.

The incident comes just days after a United pilot reported a possible drone encounter while approaching San Diego International Airport, according to air traffic audio.

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The FAA did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.

FOX Business’ Bonny Chu contributed to this report.