Business
Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally as Turnaround Gains Traction?
NEW YORK — Starbucks Corp. shares have climbed more than 15 percent year-to-date in 2026, trading near $98 in mid-April as investors weigh early signs of a turnaround under new CEO Brian Niccol against lingering pressures from cautious consumers and a complex China market.
At around $98.47 on April 15, 2026, SBUX stock sits well above its recent lows but remains far below the all-time highs above $120 seen in prior years. The company’s market capitalization hovers near $110 billion after a volatile stretch marked by declining traffic in key markets and aggressive cost-cutting efforts. Year-to-date gains outpace the broader market modestly, reflecting guarded optimism around the “Back to Starbucks” strategy launched after Niccol’s arrival from Chipotle in late 2024.
Wall Street’s consensus leans toward cautious optimism. Across roughly 40 analysts, the average 12-month price target stands near $101 to $104, implying modest single-digit upside from current levels. Ratings tilt toward Hold with a sprinkling of Buy recommendations, though some firms have nudged targets higher following positive Q1 signals. The highest targets reach $165 in optimistic scenarios, while bears see downside risks toward $74 if momentum stalls.
Fiscal first-quarter 2026 results released in late January offered the clearest evidence yet that Niccol’s plan is gaining traction. Global comparable store sales rose 4 percent, driven by positive U.S. transaction growth for the first time in eight quarters. Revenue climbed 5 percent to approximately $9.9 billion, beating estimates, though adjusted earnings per share of $0.56 missed consensus slightly amid higher labor investments and one-time items.
The company introduced full-year fiscal 2026 guidance calling for global comparable sales growth of 3 percent or better, with similar revenue expansion. Non-GAAP earnings per share are projected in a range of $2.15 to $2.40, and Starbucks plans to open 600 to 650 net new stores worldwide. Executives described the turnaround as “ahead of schedule,” highlighting menu simplification, improved store operations and a renewed focus on the core coffeehouse experience.
Niccol has emphasized returning Starbucks to its roots — faster service, friendlier baristas and a stronger sense of community — after years of over-reliance on digital orders and drive-thru efficiency that some critics said eroded the brand’s soul. Early moves included trimming the menu by 25 to 30 percent to reduce complexity and waste, enhancing in-store ambiance and retraining staff. U.S. traffic trends have stabilized, with transaction growth turning positive amid targeted promotions and value offers.
International markets present a more mixed picture. China, once a high-growth engine with plans to reach 20,000 stores through a partnership with Boyu Capital, continues facing headwinds from intense local competition and a sluggish consumer environment. While the company maintains long-term ambitions in the region, near-term traffic remains soft. Starbucks closed a strategic deal in China earlier in 2026, aiming to accelerate expansion while sharing risk.
Analysts credit Niccol’s operational discipline for margin stabilization efforts even as investments in labor and store refreshes weigh on near-term profitability. Operating margins contracted in Q1 but executives expect slight improvement for the full year through efficiency gains and disciplined pricing. Free cash flow generation remains solid, supporting the company’s quarterly dividend of about $0.61 per share, which yields roughly 2.5 percent at current prices.
The stock’s valuation sparks debate. Trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple in the high 30s to low 40s based on 2026 estimates, SBUX commands a premium that assumes successful execution of the turnaround. Bulls argue the multiple is justified by Starbucks’ powerful global brand, loyal customer base and potential for mid-single-digit long-term growth as digital, ready-to-drink products and new store development compound. Bears counter that the premium leaves limited room for error if U.S. consumer spending weakens further or China recovery lags.
Next earnings for the fiscal second quarter are scheduled for late April, with investors eager for updates on U.S. traffic trends, China performance and progress on store renovations. Any positive surprises on same-store sales or margin trajectory could fuel further gains, while softer commentary might trigger profit-taking.
Competition remains fierce. Rivals such as Dutch Bros, local coffee chains and even fast-food players offering premium beverages continue chipping away at market share, particularly among price-sensitive younger customers. Starbucks has responded with value bundles, seasonal drinks and loyalty program enhancements designed to boost frequency without deep discounting that could erode margins.
Longer-term catalysts include international expansion beyond China, growth in the Global Coffee Alliance and ready-to-drink beverages, and potential innovation in plant-based or premium offerings. The company also continues investing in technology, including mobile order improvements and data-driven personalization, to enhance the customer experience.
For investors debating buy or sell decisions in 2026, Starbucks represents a classic turnaround story in the consumer discretionary space. Optimists see an attractive entry point after years of underperformance, with Niccol’s proven track record at Chipotle providing credibility. The current dividend yield and share repurchase activity add appeal for income-oriented portfolios. At depressed levels relative to historical peaks, the stock offers asymmetric upside if the “Back to Starbucks” plan restores mid-single-digit growth and expands margins toward pre-pandemic levels.
Skeptics highlight structural challenges: a maturing U.S. market, persistent inflation pressures on discretionary spending and geopolitical risks in China. Execution risk remains high as the company balances cost discipline with investments in people and stores. If traffic gains prove temporary or new store openings fall short, the premium valuation could compress quickly.
Portfolio considerations matter. Defensive qualities in the consumer staples-adjacent sector make Starbucks appealing during economic uncertainty, yet its sensitivity to discretionary spending ties it more closely to cyclical trends. Dividend growth history and strong balance sheet provide some downside protection.
As spring advances, attention will focus on summer beverage sales, back-to-school traffic and any updates on China operations or new product launches. Broader economic factors — interest rates, employment trends and consumer confidence — will influence results.
At current levels near $98, Starbucks offers a blend of recovery potential and income. Short-term traders may await the April earnings reaction for clearer direction, while longer-term investors can lean on the brand’s resilience and Niccol’s strategic shifts. Those with high conviction in a U.S. traffic rebound and successful China navigation see room for the stock to climb toward the $110-$120 range by year-end.
The coming months will test whether early positive trends translate into sustained momentum. Strong Q2 results, accelerating U.S. transactions and credible progress on margins could validate the bullish case and support multiple expansion. Any signs of renewed softness, however, might pressure shares toward the lower end of the 52-week range.
Starbucks built its empire on the simple promise of a welcoming third place between home and work. Under Niccol, the company is rediscovering that heritage while adapting to a more competitive, cost-conscious environment. Whether 2026 marks the inflection point for renewed growth or another transitional year will shape shareholder returns for years ahead.
For now, the data point to a Hold with upward bias for those willing to tolerate volatility. The golden siren has weathered storms before. If the turnaround delivers, patient investors could be rewarded as Starbucks reclaims its position as a premium growth name in the restaurant sector. Execution will be everything in the months ahead.
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Dollar Tree Stock: A Strong Bet As Shoppers Seek Value (NASDAQ:DLTR)
With combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular contributor on Seeking Alpha since 2017. He has been quoted in many web publications and his articles are syndicated to company pages in popular trading apps like Robinhood.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of DLTR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Why Procurement Automation Is Really About Rules
That pitch still exists, but it no longer captures the most interesting change in the category. The real shift is that procurement platforms are increasingly being used not just to digitize transactions, but to turn management rules into something people have to follow. Deloitte’s 2025 Global Chief Procurement Officer Survey describes procurement as being at a turning point, while a 2025 Harvard Business Review article, based on research with Digital Procurement World, says companies have ambitious plans to digitize procurement rapidly, especially through AI. Put simply, procurement software is being asked to do more than speed up routine tasks. It is being asked to support management discipline.
That change matters because many companies do not really struggle with a lack of procurement activity. They struggle with a lack of consistency. One team adds suppliers one way, another routes approvals differently, and a third keeps critical exceptions in private messages. By the time leadership wants better reporting, it discovers that the problem is not the dashboard. The problem is that the underlying rules were never clear enough to produce clean data in the first place. Deloitte’s survey makes a related point in a broader way: better enterprise performance is linked not to technology alone but to the combination of technology and talent capabilities, and humans still need to remain “in the loop” if digital investment is going to work. That is a useful reminder because it cuts against the fantasy that software can settle governance questions on its own.
This is where Precoro becomes worth closer examination. External coverage places the company in a fairly specific part of the market. In Forbes Advisor’s 2024 review of supply chain management software, Precoro was identified as the option “best for approval workflow,” with the review highlighting threshold-based approvals, mobile authorization and strong report customization. The same review also noted limits: inventory features needed work, and users reported weak invoice integration. Capterra’s 2025 procurement shortlist places Precoro alongside products such as Procurify, Tipalti and SAP S/4HANA Cloud, giving it an overall score of 79 out of 100, a ratings score of 50 out of 50 and entry-level pricing from $499 a month. Taken together, those sources suggest that Precoro is not best understood as a giant all-purpose enterprise suite. It is better understood as a platform focused on centralized purchasing control, with its strongest identity sitting around approvals, structure and workflow discipline.
That positioning is important because approval logic is often where procurement automation becomes real. Many companies can live with messy intake for a surprisingly long time. The strain appears when they start growing, add layers of management, spread spending across more teams and need faster decisions without losing control. Precoro’s approval workflow documentation is revealing here. It does not begin with efficiency language. It begins with three steps: decide what rules should affect approvals, configure the steps and assign the people responsible. It lists departments, projects, locations and thresholds as common variables, and it includes direct-manager approval and over-budget approval as explicit workflow options. That does not prove that Precoro is unique. But it does show that the product is built around a practical view of procurement: if the rules are unclear, the system will not magically make them clear.
The same pattern appears in how the product treats forms and fields. Precoro’s documentation says companies can create custom forms for purchase orders, purchase requisitions, invoices, expenses, service orders and suppliers. Fields can be made mandatory, tied to approval logic and linked through dependencies so that one choice controls what appears next. There is also an important restriction: if a custom document field is involved in approval, it cannot simply be hidden through dependencies. That sounds like a detail only an implementer would care about, but it says something larger about the product’s logic. A field is not just a box on a screen. It can determine what information is required, who is accountable for entering it and whether a document can keep moving. In that sense, procurement automation starts to look less like digitized administration and more like process rules made visible.
Supplier control tells a similar story. In its July 2024 product updates, Precoro introduced supplier approval dependencies tied to custom supplier fields. In its multi-entity documentation, the company explains that suppliers can be assigned to legal entities, custom-field options can depend on legal entities and tax lists can be filtered automatically based on the legal entity chosen in a document. A separate legal-entity guide adds that all legal entities inside Precoro use the same currency, processes and approval flows. None of this is made for headline features. But it is exactly the kind of detail that matters once a company has more than one entity, more than one approval layer or more than one tax context to manage. At that point, procurement is no longer just about getting a request approved. It becomes a question of who can buy, from whom, under which entity and according to which internal logic.
Even the company’s vacation coverage feature says something about how it approaches workflow. Precoro’s Vacation Mode lets users assign backup approvers and substitute users so that approvals and document handling continue during absences. The distinction matters: a backup approver can approve or reject documents, while a substitute user is there to manage documents in statuses such as Matching, Pending and In Revision. It is a small feature, but it reflects an important operational truth. Many workflow systems seem disciplined until a key manager is away and the queue stops moving. A product that makes room for exception handling is often a product that has been shaped by real process friction rather than by a neat diagram of the “normal” path.
This is also where the limits of Precoro help define the company more clearly. Forbes Advisor did not present it as a deep inventory tool, and Capterra places it in a crowded market of procurement and spend software rather than among the largest enterprise platforms. That is not necessarily a weakness. For many mid-sized companies, the bigger problem is not replacing an entire supply chain stack. It is stopping approvals, supplier setup, entity-level controls and reporting inputs from drifting apart as the business gets more complex. In that context, a platform with a clearer main focus may be more useful than one that tries to do everything. External reviews suggest that Precoro’s main strength lies in approval logic and structured purchasing control, and the product documentation broadly supports that reading.
The broader lesson is that procurement automation is becoming a test of management quality as much as software quality. HBR’s reporting suggests companies want to move quickly, especially with AI in view. Deloitte’s survey suggests that digital investment pays off best when paired with the skills and decision discipline needed to use it properly. Against that backdrop, Precoro is interesting not because it promises a dramatic reinvention of procurement, but because it reflects a more practical reality in this category. The software can route decisions, enforce fields, assign substitutes and structure approvals. What it cannot do is decide what the rules should be. That still belongs to management. The companies that benefit most from procurement automation are likely to be the ones that understand that difference early.
What makes Precoro worth in-depth coverage, then, is not simply that it is another tool in a crowded market. It is that the company offers a useful lens on where procurement software is heading. The category is moving away from the old promise of “less paperwork” and toward a more practical task: turning internal policy into repeatable behavior across teams, entities and exceptions. External reviewers seem to recognize one part of that in Precoro’s approval strengths. The company’s own documentation fills in the rest by showing how much of the product is built around rule-setting, dependencies and continuity in roles and approvals. Looked at that way, Precoro is less a story about automation replacing judgment than about software exposing how much judgment needed to be defined clearly all along.
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Rachel Reeves Cuts Electricity Bills 25% for 10,000 UK Manufacturers
Rachel Reeves has pledged to slash electricity bills by up to a quarter for more than 10,000 British manufacturers, in a move Whitehall hopes will shore up the country’s battered industrial base and blunt criticism that ministers have been slow to tackle the highest energy costs in the developed world.
Speaking from Washington, where she is attending the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund, the Chancellor confirmed on Thursday that the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) will be widened by 40 per cent, bringing an additional 3,000 firms under its umbrella. The scheme, first trailed in last year’s Modern Industrial Strategy, will exempt qualifying businesses from the indirect costs of three legacy green levies: the Renewables Obligation, Feed-in Tariffs and the Capacity Market.
Treasury officials put the value of the relief at roughly £35 to £40 per megawatt hour, or up to £600 million a year once the scheme takes effect in April 2027. Crucially, ministers insist that neither households nor businesses outside the scheme will see their bills rise as a consequence, with the cost being met through a mixture of changes within the energy system and Exchequer funding. Full details are to be set out in next year’s Budget.
In a concession to firms that have been lobbying hard for immediate relief, the Chancellor has also agreed to a one-off backdated payment in 2027, replicating the support manufacturers would have received had BICS been operational from April 2026. Exemptions on the Renewables Obligation and Feed-in Tariff levies will kick in from April 2027, with Capacity Market exemptions following that October.
Eligibility will run the length of the industrial spectrum, from sprawling steelworks and automotive plants to smaller recyclers, plastics producers, metal fabricators and pharmaceutical manufacturers. Aerospace companies, nuclear fuel processors and makers of cooling and ventilation equipment are also expected to qualify. Relief will be calculated site by site, based on the proportion of electricity used to manufacture eligible goods. Sites where less than 25 per cent of power is used for qualifying production will receive nothing; those between 25 and 50 per cent will get a half exemption, and any site above 50 per cent will benefit in full. Notably, the scheme draws no distinction between large corporates and SMEs, a point likely to be welcomed by smaller firms in the supply chain who have often found themselves shut out of previous industrial aid programmes.
Ms Reeves said the measure was part of the Government’s broader push to deliver “stability, keeping costs down, and boosting competitiveness” at a time when the Middle East crisis is once again rattling global energy markets. “This Government has the right plan for the economy: backing British industry, cutting electricity costs, and building a stronger, more resilient future,” she said, adding that the announcement would help manufacturers “compete, win and create good jobs across the country”.
The Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, framed the move as a response to the number one complaint he hears on factory visits. “When global instability puts businesses under pressure we’ll always do what’s needed to support them,” he said. “By extending the reach of BICS by 40 per cent, we’re acting decisively to tackle the number one issue that businesses face head-on.”
Business lobbies offered a qualified welcome. Rain Newton-Smith, chief executive of the CBI, said the Chancellor had shown she was “listening to firms grappling with volatility in global energy markets”, though she stressed that BICS should be viewed as “an important step” rather than “job done”. Lasting reform, she argued, would require stripping policy costs from electricity bills altogether, scaling up energy efficiency support and accelerating the rollout of renewables.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, described the final design of BICS as “a major win” for the car industry, saying it sent “a clear and immediate signal that we are open for business and a prime destination for investment”. Shevaun Haviland, director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, welcomed the backdating in particular, which the BCC had lobbied for.
Not everyone was satisfied, however. Stephen Phipson, chief executive of Make UK, delivered the sharpest riposte, warning that relief coming in 2027 was cold comfort to manufacturers renegotiating their contracts now. “Manufacturers are staring down the barrel of huge increases in their energy bills this month,” he said. “Many simply can’t wait until 2027 for relief.” The UK still labours under the highest industrial electricity costs in the developed world, he noted, and failing to act immediately risked “substantial job losses and further deindustrialisation of a sector vital for our national security and resilience”, a sector that supports 2.6 million skilled jobs.
Thursday’s announcement follows the £420 million boost delivered on 1 April through the British Industry Supercharger, which lifted the discount on electricity network charges for around 500 of the most energy-intensive firms from 60 to 90 per cent. Together with BICS, ministers argue the two schemes represent the most significant intervention in industrial energy pricing in a generation.
A second consultation on the regulatory changes needed to bring the scheme to life closes on 14 May, with legislation expected on the statute book by the autumn. A full review of BICS is pencilled in for 2030. The full list of eligible SIC and HS codes is due to be published on gov.uk later today.
Whether the package is enough to arrest the slow erosion of Britain’s industrial base, or whether, as Make UK fears, it simply arrives too late for firms already on the brink, will now become the defining question of the Chancellor’s industrial policy in the run-up to the Budget.
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