Brexit has stripped roughly 6 per cent from the size of the UK economy over the past decade, according to economists who have analysed internal Bank of England data covering the decisions, views and financial results of thousands of British firms since the 2016 referendum.

The study drew on the same intelligence the Bank uses to set interest rates, reconstructing how the UK might have grown had it voted to stay in the EU. Its conclusion is that about half the damage came from the sheer shock and uncertainty of the post-referendum years, with the remainder flowing from the higher trade barriers that followed Britain’s exit from the customs union and single market in 2021.

For the small and medium-sized firms that make up the bulk of the UK economy, the finding will feel less like an academic revision and more like a description of the past ten years: thinner margins, postponed investment and the steady accretion of paperwork at the EU border.

The research is co-authored by the British economist Nick Bloom, a professor at Stanford University, alongside economists at the Bank of England. Crucially, it is the first time the Bank’s granular information on the corporate sector has been deployed in this way.

That information comes from the Decision Maker Panel, a survey the Bank set up in 2016 with the express purpose of gauging the economic impact of Brexit. Normally used to help inform interest-rate decisions, it allowed the authors to track, year by year, how exposed individual firms were to different facets of Brexit, the impacts they reported, and the changes that showed up in their accounts.

The company-level data point to a 6 per cent hit over ten years. Set alongside five more traditional methods of analysis, the wider studies suggest a steeper average of around 8 per cent. The full paper, published through the National Bureau of Economic Research, sets out the economic impact of Brexit in detail, and carries the customary disclaimer that “the views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the Bank of England”.

Bloom argues that the UK was growing briskly in the years before the vote and could have at least partly matched the United States but for the disruption. The Bank’s company data, he says, offers important corroboration. His paper concludes that “in the case of Brexit, there was a substantial economic impact on the United Kingdom, but it arose gradually over the subsequent decade”.

The timing is notable. The Bank’s most senior figures have become markedly more forthcoming in recent months about the consequences of leaving the EU, a shift Business Matters has tracked as the governor warned the Brexit impact would stay negative for the foreseeable future.

Speaking to journalists, governor Andrew Bailey said that as a result of Brexit, “I think the level of activity and growth in the economy has been lower.” He went on: “And the reason for that is that if you reduce the size of the markets that we trade with, so we reduce our export markets, then that does tend to have a negative impact on growth,” adding that productivity and the size of the market had also been affected.

Bailey did, however, temper the verdict on the City. The impact on financial services, he said, was “not good”, but “nowhere near as detrimental as many people predicted at the time”.

Not everyone accepts the headline number. Some policy economists contend that it is inherently difficult to model how the UK would have fared without Brexit, and that such studies risk overstating the effect at a time of overlapping global shocks. Critics also argue the analysis does not fully capture the outperformance of US investment and technology, or the European energy crisis that struck four years ago.

The 6 per cent estimate sits within a familiar range. It is a touch above the 5 per cent blow calculated by Goldman Sachs, and it chimes with mounting evidence that smaller exporters have borne the brunt, as seen in the £27bn hit to UK exporters where the smallest firms have been squeezed hardest.

The latest version of the study has landed just ahead of the tenth anniversary of the referendum, and against a backdrop of cautious rapprochement. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said he will meet his EU counterparts at a summit in July to agree deals on food and farm exports, as well as electricity and emissions trading, with further areas of cooperation and alignment expected to be on the table.

For Britain’s business owners, the political mood music matters less than what it eventually delivers at the border. A decade on from the vote, the lesson buried in the Bank’s own company data is a sobering one: the cost of Brexit did not arrive in a single dramatic shock, but accumulated quietly, firm by firm, year after year.

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President Tharman visited Tanzania, highlighting East Africa as a promising partner for Singapore amid global uncertainty. Singapore plans a free trade agreement with eight East African nations, targeting opportunities in logistics, tourism, agribusiness, and fintech while encouraging younger Singaporeans to engage with Africa.

Key Points

• President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, concluding a three-day Tanzania state visit, urged Singaporeans to better understand Africa, announcing negotiations for Singapore’s first free trade agreement with eight East African Community nations, whose combined GDP mirrors ASEAN’s economy from 35 years ago.

• Key opportunities for Singapore firms include logistics, industrial park development, agribusiness, fintech, tourism, and food security, with Tanzania and Zanzibar offering manufacturing expansion, deep-water port development, and diverse food supply sources to strengthen Singapore’s resilience.

• Singapore aims to leverage its 2027 ASEAN chairmanship to strengthen region-to-region ties with Africa, while addressing investment challenges like foreign currency shortages by encouraging African financial institutions to establish a presence in Singapore to facilitate trade financing.

East Africa as Singapore’s New Strategic Frontier

President Tharman Shanmugaratnam has identified East Africa as a promising new frontier for Singapore, emphasizing the need for stronger bilateral ties during his three-day state visit to Tanzania. Speaking in Zanzibar, he announced that Singapore would negotiate its first free trade agreement with the eight-nation East African Community (EAC). He highlighted that the EAC’s combined GDP mirrors ASEAN’s economic size from 35 years ago, positioning it as one of the world’s fastest-growing regions. President Tharman also encouraged more Singaporeans, particularly the youth, to engage with and better understand Africa’s diverse opportunities.

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Key Sectors Driving Singapore-Tanzania Collaboration

Singapore’s core strengths align well with Tanzania and Zanzibar’s development goals. Logistics, industrial park development, agribusiness, tourism, fintech, and digitisation were highlighted as priority areas. Zanzibar’s planned deep-water port at Mangapwani and accompanying industrial park present significant opportunities for Singapore firms with expertise in port operations and manufacturing infrastructure. Minister Indranee Rajah further emphasized tourism investment and food security, noting Tanzania’s competitive workforce, abundant land, and agricultural resources, including fisheries and produce, which could diversify Singapore’s food supply. Financial services and professional services were also identified as promising collaboration areas.

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Strengthening Regional and Community Ties

Beyond bilateral trade, Singapore aims to leverage its 2027 ASEAN Chairmanship to strengthen region-to-region ties between ASEAN and Africa, where trade currently represents only 2% of ASEAN’s total international trade. Minister of State Zhulkarnain Abdul Rahim highlighted shared challenges, including climate change, energy security, and pandemics, as common ground for cooperation. On the ground, Singapore’s involvement was visible at Darajani Souk in Stone Town, where Singapore agro-commodities firm Nomanbhoy & Sons partnered with local group Africab to transform the historic marketplace into a thriving commercial and cultural destination, benefiting hundreds of local merchants and small businesses.

Other People are Reading

Tata Capital shares dropped around 2.5% on Monday after a 17% rally over the last one week pushed the stock to a lifetime high on Friday.

The shares of the non banking financial company (NBFC) dropped to Rs 357.7 apiece on the NSE on Monday morning. The stock jumped 21% in one month to hit a fresh all-time high of Rs 379.95 apiece on Friday.

Shares of Tata Capital made a muted debut on the stock exchanges in October last year, listing at a 1.2% premium at Rs 330 on both the BSE and NSE. This came after the Rs 15,512-crore IPO was fully subscribed 1.95 times, led by Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs).

The company’s shares have been more or less range-bound since then, dropping over 10% to hit a 52-week low of Rs 296 apiece earlier this month. The stock then gained 28% to hit a 52-week high of Rs 379.95 apiece on Friday.

Also Read | Tata Capital shares make weak debut, list at just 1% premium after 2025’s biggest IPO

JM Financial on Tata Capital

JM Financial last week upgraded its rating on the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Add’, noting that the company’s management remains confident in delivering 23–25% growth in FY25–28E, supported by continued retailisation, branch expansion and deeper product penetration. “Tata Motors Finance’s integration remains on track, and it is expected to become a meaningful profitability contributor over the medium term with ~2% RoA expected by FY28,” it added.

The domestic brokerage noted the post IPO correction in the stock, adding, “Given upcoming visible levers like high yield book expansion (affordable housing/PL etc.), improving profitability trajectory in motor finance while maintaining high growth reinforces our confidence in healthy earnings compounding in the medium term.”
JM Financial also increased its target price to Rs 400 apiece from Rs 380 apiece, with the latest target price implying a 9% upside potential from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 366.80 apiece on NSE.Also Read | Tata Capital targets 23–25% loan growth through FY28, bets on GenAI and falling credit costs to boost returns

Tata Capital Q4 snapshot

Tata Capital in April reported a 43% year-on-year (YoY) surge in consolidated net profit to Rs 1,502 crore for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2026, along with a final dividend of Rs 0.57 per share for its shareholders.

While net profit surged 43% YoY, revenue from operations grew 9% YoY to Rs 8,160 crore during the quarter under review. Its net interest income (NII) rose 28% YoY to Rs 3,127 crore, and net assets under management (AUM) grew 28% YoY to nearly Rs 2.52 lakh crore at the end of the quarter.

Tata Capital’s annualised operating expense on the average net loan book was stable at 2.3%, while the cost-to-income ratio improved to 36.1%. Annualised credit cost slightly reduced to 0.8%, while annualised ROA and annualised ROE rose to 2.5% and 14.6%, respectively, during the fourth quarter of FY26. However, these numbers exclude the firm’s motor finance business.

Also Read | Should you buy, sell or hold Tata Capital shares after Q4 net profit surges 43%

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

The largest US-listed exchange-traded funds tracking single Asian countries, from India to Taiwan, suffered record outflows in March, just ahead of a massive rebound in the region’s equities on the first day of April.

Traders yanked a record $1.4 billion in March from BlackRock’s $6.7 billion iShares MSCI India ETF, known by its ticker INDA, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The firm’s $7 billion iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF, or EWT, also saw a record redemption of $1.1 billion last month, the data show.

The withdrawals point to growing strain across energy-centric Asia, with India hit by currency weakness, rising yields and profit concerns, and Taiwan’s export-heavy manufacturing base facing rising cost pressures. Still, Asian stocks jumped the most in nearly a year on Wednesday after President Donald Trump suggested he is keen to exit the Middle East conflict sooner rather than later, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift with each turn in the war.

“I’d say this is a greed rebound on new hope for a shorter conflict than what was being priced in a few days ago,” said Ed Goard, chief investment officer of Yousif Capital Management, who holds INDA for clients. “But during times like these, markets overreact to headlines.”

Trump said Wednesday he will only consider a halt to attacks on Iran when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. In response, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Hormuz will not be opened based on the “absurd displays of the American president,” according to state-run IRIB.
Stock gauges from both India and Taiwan are still down sharply since before the start of the war.

Bad Start

For India, a bad start to the year for the country’s locally listed stocks turned worse following escalating tensions in the Middle East, with investors concerned about the impact of the global energy crisis on its economy.
The country’s stock benchmark lost 11% in March, taking losses for the year to over 15% and making it among the worst-performing markets in Asia in 2026. With the rupee hitting record lows against the dollar and government bond yields rising, worries are growing that the country’s underperformance relative to its emerging market peers could deepen.
UBS Global Wealth Management and HSBC downgraded Indian equities to neutral in recent days, citing risks from the war.

In Taiwan, the energy crisis has weighed on the outlook for its chip sector, given that the country is heavily dependent on natural gas imports to run its power plants. The country’s benchmark equities index fell nearly 13% in March, the most since September 2022.

“Taiwan does have advantages over some other smaller Asian countries given it dominates in tech and semiconductors, and this gives it some pricing power to a degree,” Goard said.

A fresh wave of Silicon Valley wealth could soon flow into South Florida.

With OpenAI quietly filing for a confidential IPO alongside market debuts from aerospace giant SpaceX and AI rival Anthropic, billions of dollars in overnight liquidity are about to be unlocked for executives and middle management alike. But instead of reinvesting in the Golden State, this incoming class of newly minted tech multimillionaires is already flooding Florida real estate brokers with calls — triggering what experts say could be a rapid-fire “Tech Exodus 2.0” measured in months, not years.

“The California area codes have already started showing up,” Fort Lauderdale Downtown Development Authority CEO and President Jenni Morejon told Fox News Digital. “It’s just that the conversations are evolving.”

“We get that Malcolm Gladwell ‘tipping effect,’ where you almost have to be in Miami because a lot of your friends and family and neighbors are moving here,” DaGrosa Capital Partners founder and chair Joe DaGrosa also said. “We saw that happen in New York. I think we’re going to see the same thing happen out of California.”

FLEEING FOR THEIR FUTURES, A CALIFORNIA EXODUS UNLEASHES A FLORIDA ‘GOLD RUSH’

Despite its strong talent pool, “Silicon Valley is absolutely a boring place to live compared to Miami,” real estate magnate and Naftali Group CEO Miki Naftali added. “How can you even compare between living in Miami and Silicon Valley?”

This week, SpaceX stock continued to surge following its record-setting IPO last Friday on the Nasdaq, rising more than 35% since it started trading. That briefly made it the fourth-largest global company by market cap before some of those gains were pared back.

SpaceX’s valuation success bleeds into the highly anticipated IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, which Reuters reports are both expected to list in late 2026.

Once an IPO hits the public stock market, those paper shares or stock options that employees might own instantly transform into liquid, tradable cash.

“There is going to be this transitional event with the IPO where executives are finally gonna see probably the biggest cash day most of them have ever seen in their lives. And many of them are not making millions, they’re making tens of millions overnight. And I think that’s going to have them thinking long and hard about South Florida and Miami in particular,” DaGrosa, whose firm has spent much of the last two decades investing in real estate, said.

“What we’re seeing here is a shock in a positive way to the financial balance sheets of individuals, particularly out in California, where I think they’re gonna be moving in a matter of months, not years or decades,” he continued.

Nestled between West Palm Beach and Miami, Fort Lauderdale is poised to welcome the tech titans, according to Morejon. The “low-key” culture of Fort Lauderdale and its private neighborhoods could prove to be a refreshing change from the spotlight of California.

CALIFORNIA LOSES FORTUNE 500 CROWN TO TEXAS AS BILLIONAIRE TAX THREAT LOOMS

“Having newcomers here with wealth is really a calibration. Fort Lauderdale has always attracted wealth that’s active, it’s global, it is highly productive. It’s just not performative,” Morejon said. “The wealth doesn’t hide here. It just doesn’t feel the need to announce itself. And I really think what we’re seeing now with AI founders, with the era of liquidity with SpaceX is a generation that’s used to speed and being very public… But many are also reaching a stage where I think they value discretion, it’s becoming an asset.”

“Tech jobs have actually grown 20% since 2021, and the increase in wealth, in terms of our downtown population, has also grown at the same rate. Our downtown economy supports over $43 billion annually in economic impact, and that’s a disproportionate and overarching share in high-value industries like tech, finance, professional services,” she added “So I think you see that this isn’t just a lifestyle narrative, it’s actually an operating environment for new businesses. And we have the engineering and infrastructure emerging to prove that.”

Naftali admits he feels “it’s too early to tell” when or where exactly new millionaires and billionaires will make the coast-to-coast move, and says the migration won’t solely be coming from California.

“Who is leading those IPOs? Those that are leading the IPOs are really based in New York because those are the Wall Street guys that are running the IPOs for the high-tech companies, and they are making huge bonuses,” Naftali said.

“There is going to be this transitional event with the IPO where executives are finally gonna see probably the biggest cash day most of them have ever seen in their lives.”

“We speak about Silicon Valley, but SpaceX is not in Silicon Valley,” the developer also noted. “But the point is, it’s all about talent, right? They’re all going after the talent… So [that’s] what Florida is still lacking and it’s gonna take time to attract the talent.”

Yet as the talent begins to follow the capital, the ultimate ripple effects will likely extend far beyond luxury beachfront high-rises. The experts argue that a massive wave of public market wealth creates an entirely new class of consumer — and resident — that shifts the cultural fabric of local communities.

“What’s interesting, though, is middle management at SpaceX and all these other companies, middle managers have wealth creation that can be $25, $50, $100 million. So what we would historically think of as a middle manager earning a decent living building wealth slowly over time, it’s a game-changer,” DaGrosa pointed out, noting that as these teams migrate, the housing market periphery will see a massive boom.

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“I think what we see is actually more opportunity for Floridians to get better jobs. I mean, when a state is doing well and making money… more people are moving into the state and spending money,” Naftali said.

“If you’re building a company at scale, you need three things: You need access, you need talent and you need a quality of life that sustains performance,” Morejon stated of her ultimate elevator pitch to incoming West Coast founders. “And if you need a place to dock the yacht, we can handle that, too.”

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