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Disinflation Meets Escalation | Seeking Alpha

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Disinflation Meets Escalation | Seeking Alpha

This article was written by

Alex Pettee is President and Director of Research and ETFs at Hoya Capital. Hoya manages institutional and individual portfolios of publicly traded real estate securities.Alex leads the investing group iREIT®+HOYA Capital. The service features a team of analysts focusing on real income-producing asset classes that offer the opportunity for reliable income, diversification, and inflation hedging. Learn More.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RIET, HOMZ, IRET, ALL HOLDINGS IN THE IREIT+HOYA PORTFOLIOS either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations (“Hoya Capital”) is an affiliate of Hoya Capital Real Estate, a registered investment advisory firm based in Rowayton, Connecticut, that provides investment advisory services to ETFs, individuals, and institutions. Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations provides non-advisory services, including market commentary, research, and index administration focused on publicly traded securities in the real estate industry. This published commentary is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this site nor any commentary published by Hoya Capital is intended to be investment, tax, or legal advice or an offer to buy or sell securities. This commentary is impersonal and should not be considered a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific individual, nor should it be viewed as a solicitation or offer for any advisory service offered by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Please consult with your investment, tax, or legal adviser regarding your individual circumstances before investing. The views and opinions in all published commentary are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. Any market data quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any historical trend illustrated herein will be repeated in the future, and there is no way to predict precisely when such a trend will begin. There is no guarantee that any outlook made in this commentary will be realized. Readers should understand that investing involves risk, and loss of principal is possible. Investments in real estate companies and/or housing industry companies involve unique risks, as do investments in ETFs. The information presented does not reflect the performance of any fund or other account managed or serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. An investor cannot invest directly in an index, and index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees, expenses, or taxes. Hoya Capital Real Estate and Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations have no business relationship with any company discussed or mentioned and never receive compensation from any company discussed or mentioned. Hoya Capital Real Estate, its affiliates, and/or its clients and/or its employees may hold positions in securities or funds discussed on this website and in our published commentary. A complete list of holdings and additional important disclosures is available at www.HoyaCapital.com.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Nifty ready for 24,500-24,750 levels after breakout rally: Analysts

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Nifty ready for 24,500-24,750 levels after breakout rally: Analysts
The Nifty enters the new trading week with momentum on its side after outperforming most Asian peers on Friday and breaking out of its recent consolidation range. Analysts expect the rally to extend towards 24,500-24,750, with some seeing the potential for 25,000, although they believe the index must first overcome resistance around the 24,350-24,600 zone. The index closed at 24,334 on Friday.

NAGARAJ SHETTI
SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES

Trading Strategies
One may look to buy Bank Nifty July Futures around 58,591-58,500 for an upside target of 59,600 by the July 28 expiry. Place a stop loss at 58,000. One may buy the Nifty 24,500 CE of the July 28 expiry around 137-125 for a target of 250. Place a stop loss at 75. TOP STOCK PICKS
Bajaj Finance: Buy at Rs 1,055 | Target: Rs 1,115 | Stop loss: Rs 1,020 | Timeframe: 1-2 weeks

The stock is poised for a breakout above previous highs, supported by robust volumes and a positive daily RSI. Sona BLW
Precision Forgings: Buy at Rs 705 | Target: Rs 752 | Stop loss: Rs 680 | Timeframe: 1-2 weeks
Bullish chart structure, strong breakout volumes and a positive daily RSI support the uptrend.

Nifty Ready for 24,500-24,750 Levels After Breakout RallyAgencies

Also Read: D-St set for a negative opening as GIFT Nifty signals weak start

MEHUL KOTHARI
DVP – TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ANAND RATHI SHARE AND STOCK BROKERS

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Trading Strategy
While the broader trend remains positive, the outlook is cautious until the Nifty decisively clears the immediate resistance zone of 24,350- 24,400. Until then, traders can consider a hedged short strategy: Sell Nifty July Futures around 24,350 Buy 24,300 Call Option (Monthly Expiry) as a hedge. The maximum risk on the strategy is expected to be around Rs 12,000 per lot.

Exit Strategy:
Stop Loss: Exit on a decisive move above 24,500. Target: Book profits if the index revisits the 24,000 support zone.

TOP STOCK PICKS

EPACK Durable: Buy at Rs 240-244 | Target: Rs 275 | Stop loss: Rs 225 | Timeframe: 1-3 months

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The stock‘s technical setup has improved after moving above the Ichimoku conversion and base lines, while momentum indicators have also turned positive.

Endurance Technologies: Buy at Rs 2,770-2,800 | Target: Rs 3,100 | Stop loss: Rs 2,620 | Timeframe: 90 days

It has confirmed a bullish breakout from an Ascending Triangle pattern, reinforcing the strength of the prevailing uptrend. The stock continues to trade above the Ichimoku Cloud with improving momentum, indicating the potential for further gains.

Read more: Select mid & smallcaps on a roll, but broader market lags

SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR
VP – RESEARCH (TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES), TRADEBULLS SECURITIES

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Trading Strategy
For the Nifty to unlock meaningful directional momentum, the index must reclaim the 24,350- 24,400 resistance zone. A sustained breakout above this range would reaffirm that the broader market structure remains intact and open the possibility of an upmove towards 24,740-24,950 during the current July series.

On the downside, a decisive close below 23,800 would weaken the technical structure and increase the probability of an extended corrective phase.

Deploy a Bull Call Spread: This strategy is suitable for a moderately bullish view, with the expectation that the Nifty will sustain above 24,300 and potentially move towards 24,600 during the expiry period.

Buy: 1 Lot Nifty 24,350 Call @ Rs 115 Sell: 1 Lot Nifty 24,600 Call @ Rs 26 Net Premium: Rs 89 | SL Below: 62 | TGT: 160 Maximum Profit: Rs 161 points (250-point spread − Rs 89 net premium) Maximum Loss: Rs 89 points (Net premium paid) Breakeven: 24,439 (24,350 + Rs 89)

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TOP STOCK PICKS
ABB India: Buy at Rs 7,506 | Target: Rs 8,180 | Stop loss: Rs 7,354

The stock has witnessed a fresh breakout from a Bullish Pennant pattern on the weekly chart, with the RSI displaying a strong positive crossover, another positive sign for directional momentum.

State Bank of India: Buy at Rs 1,044 | Target: Rs 1,080 | Stop loss: Rs 1,036

The Piercing Line bullish reversal pattern confirms Rs 1,000 as a key support. RSI above 50 suggests momentum is building towards the Rs 1,080 target.

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Stay Bullish Despite The Rough Week: Aerospace, Finance, Biotech, And AI

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Stay Bullish Despite The Rough Week: Aerospace, Finance, Biotech, And AI

Stay Bullish Despite The Rough Week: Aerospace, Finance, Biotech, And AI

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Trump says he told Carney that Canada must get wildfires under control

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Trump says he told Carney that Canada must get wildfires under control

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Q1 earnings begin on a strong note as banks fuel double-digit growth

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Q1 earnings begin on a strong note as banks fuel double-digit growth
ET Intelligence Group: The early June quarter earnings trend has been marked by double-digit growth in revenue and profit, driven largely by most of the big banks and stable year-on-year performance by the IT pack.

For a common sample of 164 companies, revenue grew 17.5% on a low base a year ago, the fastest in at least nine quarters.

Net profit rose 14.5% year-on-year, marking a second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In the year-ago period, revenue and profit had risen by 4.7% and 11.5%, respectively.

The sample’s operating margin was under pressure due to higher input costs.

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Banks Lend Muscle to Q1 BottomlineAgencies

Operating Margin Contracts

For the total sample, operating margin contracted to 20.9% in the June quarter from 26.9% in the year-ago quarter. Excluding lenders, the sample’s operating margin fell to 14.7% from 17.3% by a similar comparison. The proportion of raw material cost in sales for the truncated sample shot up to 33.3% from 29.8% a year ago, reflecting input price inflation due to geopolitical conflict.
Read more: Refining gains, clean energy push lift Reliance outlook despite retail drag

Some banks and finance companies reported strong numbers, boosting overall net profit growth. Excluding lenders, the sample’s net profit growth shrank to just 1.2%. The share of banks and finance companies in the total sample’s net profit rose to 56.9% in the June quarter from 51.3% a year ago.The total sample’s profit growth was muted by Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) numbers. Net profit at the country’s largest company by revenue and market cap fell 22.4% year-on-year to Rs20,946 crore. Excluding RIL, the sample’s net profit surged to 24.1%. The lower profit was attributable to an exceptional gain of Rs 8,924 crore recorded in the year-ago quarter on the sale of RIL’s stake in Asian Paints.

At the beginning of the results season, analysts had anticipated double-digit growth in the aggregate net profit of the Nifty 50 companies, aided by banks and finance companies. “The overall earnings growth is anticipated to be healthy, anchored by financials, metals, and capital goods companies,” Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a preview report.

Clarity on the financial trend will emerge as more companies from across sectors declare quarterly numbers in the coming weeks.

Read more: Nifty ready for 24,500-24,750 levels after breakout rally: Analysts

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Oil Price Today (July 20): Crude oil jumps 3%, crosses $90 as US and Iran exchange attacks. $100 in sight?

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Oil Price Today (July 20): Crude oil jumps 3%, crosses $90 as US and Iran exchange attacks. $100 in sight?
Oil prices surged more than 3% on Monday, pushing Brent crude above the $90-a-barrel mark, after the United States and Iran intensified military attacks in the Middle East, disrupting energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil price on July 20

Brent crude futures rose $2.69, or 3.05%, to $90.79 a barrel, their highest level since June 11. The benchmark extended last week’s rally, when it gained 15.9%, marking its biggest weekly advance since April. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $2.19, or 2.65%, to $84.68 a barrel, the highest since June 12. Front-month WTI prices had jumped 15.5% last week, their strongest weekly gain since early March.

Tensions in the Middle East worsened over the weekend as the U.S. carried out a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while U.S. allies Kuwait and Bahrain reported fresh Iranian attacks.

Also read:
A dangerous new phase of war? Iran’s military is being hit ‘very hard’, says Donald Trump
Both sides have increasingly targeted shipping activity in recent days. The U.S. said it is enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran said it is targeting vessels that violate its navigation rules in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that typically carries around one-fifth of global oil trade. Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a vessel was on fire northwest of Oman’s Kumzar early on Monday.”The coming days and weeks will provide a clearer picture of the sustainable level of oil exports from the region under renewed dual blockades,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note.

What are experts saying? Goldman Sachs said Brent crude could climb above $110 a barrel in the fourth quarter if the recovery in Gulf exports remains delayed. However, the investment bank expects prices to retreat into the $60s by the end of the year if geopolitical tensions ease and production recovers more quickly than anticipated.
“At the current point there are no signs of a ceasefire again. But in case there is a ceasefire immediately imposed, we don’t expect Brent oil prices to fall beyond $70 per barrel. It is likely to remain the lower support for the near term,” Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, Currency and Commodity at
JM Financial, told ETMarkets.
Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said crude oil has once again started factoring in geopolitical risks. “Any strike on major Gulf export infrastructure could force a retest of $95-100 and beyond,” he said.

Also read:
Oil is crude once again! Is $95 the new normal and what it means for Indian investors?

He added that the market is responding less to the military action itself and more to the fading prospects of diplomacy. He noted that Tehran has set fresh conditions for restarting negotiations, and every new development is delaying the return of normal tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic had already remained well below pre-war levels.

Nuvama Institutional Equities cautioned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt nearly 20 million barrels a day of crude oil flows. In such a scenario, it said oil prices could rise to between $110 and $150 a barrel.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Perenti secures $95m contract extension

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Perenti secures $95m contract extension

Perenti boss Vanessa Torres has welcomed the company’s contract extension at AngloGold Ashanti’s Iduapriem gold mine in Ghana.

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McDonald's: Still Not Good Enough

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McDonald's: Still Not Good Enough

McDonald's: Still Not Good Enough

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Stock split alert! Last day to buy this smallcap stock that rallied 580% in 3 years. Do you own?

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Stock split alert! Last day to buy this smallcap stock that rallied 580% in 3 years. Do you own?
Lead, lead alloys and plastic additives producer Pondy Oxides & Chemicals has fixed July 21 (Tuesday) as the record date for its 2:5 stock split, effectively making today (Monday) the last day for interested investors to buy the shares of the company to be eligible for the corporate action.

According to SEBI’s T+1 settlement cycle, investors must buy a company’s shares at least one trading day before the record date to ensure the shares are credited to their demat accounts in time, and they become eligible for the corporate action. Accordingly, today is the last opportunity for investors to buy the shares so that they are credited to their accounts by Tuesday, making them eligible for the stock split.

All about Pondy Oxides & Chemicals stock split

Pondy Oxides & Chemicals, which claims to be India’s largest secondary lead manufacturer and a pioneer in lead alloys, announced in May that its board of directors approved the plan to split two shares of the company with a face value of Rs 5 each into five shares with a face value of Rs 2 each.

The company said the rationale behind the stock split was to enhance the liquidity of its shares and encourage participation from small investors by making the stock more affordable to buy. After the stock split, the company’s authorised capital of 4.03 crore shares would split into 10.07 crore shares.

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Pondy Oxides & Chemicals announced earlier this month that it has fixed July 21 (Tuesday) as the record date to determine shareholder eligibility for the stock split.

Also read: Mukul Agrawal raises stake in this microcap NBFC, smallcap textile player in Q1. Do you own?

What this means for Pondy Oxides & Chemicals shareholders

While the number of outstanding shares increases, the company’s overall market capitalisation remains unchanged. A lower share price can make the stock more accessible to retail investors, potentially improving participation and trading volumes.


If an investor owns 200 shares of Pondy Oxides & Chemicals worth Rs 100 each, she would see that get split into 500 shares worth Rs 40 each. However, there would be no change to the total value of her holding, which stands at Rs 20,000.

Pondy Oxides & Chemicals share price

Pondy Oxides & Chemicals shares dropped more than 5% in one week but gained over 1% in one month. The stock has overall declined 11% in 2026 so far.
In the longer term, the stock has delivered 37% returns over one year and over 580% in three years. The company has a market capitalisation of Rs 4,120 crore.Also read: Vijay Kedia buys over 3 lakh shares of Websol Energy; solar stock zooms 1,080% in 3 years

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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US launches Iran strikes for ninth day as another American confirmed killed

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US launches Iran strikes for ninth day as another American confirmed killed

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Thailand Targets EV Dealers Over Warranties, Disclosures, and Defect Issues

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Thailand Targets EV Dealers Over Warranties, Disclosures, and Defect Issues
  • Thailand’s consumer protection authority has launched nationwide inspections of electric vehicle dealerships, targeting misleading product disclosures, battery warranty terms, and deficient after-sales networks. The move follows 1,348 combined EV-related complaints logged between 2024 and 2026, with vehicle defects, unreturned deposits, and post-purchase price cuts among the most common grievances.
  • The inspections coincide with a draft Lemon Law advancing through parliament that would shift the burden of proof for defective goods onto sellers. Chinese manufacturers, which hold an estimated 70 to 80 percent of Thailand’s EV market, face growing pressure to demonstrate adequate warranty coverage and service infrastructure as enforcement expands beyond Bangkok.

Thailand’s government has ordered nationwide inspections of electric vehicle dealers and showrooms, tightening scrutiny of a market that has grown faster than the regulatory and after-sales infrastructure built to support it. The directive, issued by the Office of the Consumer Protection Board (OCPB), comes as complaints over defective vehicles, misleading range claims and collapsing service networks pile up across the country’s dominant EV segment.

Inspections start in Bangkok, expand nationwide

Prime Minister’s Office Minister Supamas Isarabhakdi, who oversees the OCPB, has instructed secretary-general Ronnarong Phoolpipat to intensify inspections of EV sales outlets, requiring dealers to display accurate and complete product information in compliance with existing labelling law. Checks will begin in Bangkok and surrounding provinces before rolling out nationwide, and businesses found to be missing required labels or withholding information face legal action.

The OCPB is paying particular attention to battery performance disclosures and the terms of battery warranties, an area regulators see as central to the long-term cost and resale value of an EV. The agency is coordinating with the Thai Industrial Standards Institute and the Department of Land Transport to tighten certification and registration disclosure standards, and has been ordered to compile an “EV Labels” e-book covering every model sold in the country, alongside consumer rights guidance and pre-purchase inspection advice.

“Complete disclosure is the starting point for fairness in transactions,” Supamas said, framing the crackdown as an extension of existing consumer law rather than a wait for new legislation to take effect.

A rapid rise in complaints

The scrutiny follows a sharp increase in consumer grievances. Between 2024 and 2026, the OCPB logged 556 EV-related complaints, while the Thailand Consumers Council received a further 792, bringing the combined total to 1,348 cases. Authorities say 72.3 percent have already been resolved.

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Vehicle defects and malfunctions make up the largest share of complaints, at 47.3 percent. Failure to refund booking deposits accounts for 18.2 percent, and sharp post-purchase price cuts — a familiar complaint in a market that has seen repeated rounds of discounting — represent 14.7 percent. Unfulfilled promotional offers make up 13.1 percent, with accidents and delayed repairs adding a further 2.9 percent. Officials say complaints have broadened beyond pricing disputes to cover vehicle safety, spare parts shortages, assembly standards and after-sales service failures more generally.

The context: a price war built on subsidy-driven overcapacity

The tightened oversight lands in a market that has expanded on the back of aggressive government incentives and equally aggressive Chinese manufacturer competition. EV sales surged 70 percent in 2025 to roughly 140,000 vehicles, nearly a quarter of all new car sales, according to International Energy Agency figures, and Chinese brands now hold an estimated 70 to 80 percent of Thailand’s EV market, with seven of the top ten sellers being Chinese.

That growth has come with strain. Thailand’s EV3.0 and EV3.5 incentive schemes required manufacturers receiving subsidies to offset imports with local production within set deadlines, a commitment some producers have struggled to meet, pushing them toward discounting and, in weaker cases, toward scaling back service networks to manage costs.

BYD, the market leader with roughly 40 percent share, has previously faced government scrutiny over discounts of up to 340,000 baht per vehicle, though it was cleared of wrongdoing by a consumer watchdog. Smaller entrants such as Neta have faced separate scrutiny over unmet local production offsets tied to their subsidy commitments. The resulting combination — sharp promotional swings, uneven dealer networks and a wave of new brands with limited track records in the market — is precisely the terrain in which the OCPB’s complaint categories have clustered.

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The Lemon Law backdrop

The dealer inspections are also a bridge to more structural change. Thailand’s draft Liability for Defective Goods Act, commonly called the Lemon Law, passed its first House reading on 24 June 2026 by a unanimous 420–0 vote and is now with a 24-member special committee. The bill would reverse the burden of proof for defective goods, requiring sellers to demonstrate a product was not defective at delivery rather than requiring buyers to prove it was. Automobiles would carry a one-year statutory presumption period, with repairs capped at 90 days, and strict liability provisions specifically for cars and motorcycles.

The bill, the first piece of legislation submitted to parliament by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s government, still needs second and third readings, Senate passage and publication in the Royal Gazette before taking effect. Until then, the OCPB says it will lean on existing consumer protection law governing product labelling and advertising — which is effectively what the current inspection drive represents.

What it means for automakers

For Chinese manufacturers that have built Thailand into their largest overseas production base — including BYD’s Rayong factory and the more than $4.1 billion in EV investment pledges the country has attracted across 198 projects — the message from Bangkok is not hostile to the sector itself. Officials continue to frame EVs as central to the kingdom’s “30@30” production strategy and energy security goals. But the inspection drive, paired with the Lemon Law working through committee, signals that the era of unchecked discount-driven expansion is giving way to a phase where warranty terms, after-sales capacity and disclosure standards will be enforced rather than assumed. Dealers and manufacturers with thin service networks or opaque battery warranty terms are likely to face the most immediate pressure as inspections expand beyond Bangkok in the coming months.

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