Business
F&O Talk: Nifty to consolidate further, says Sudeep Shah; picks 3 stocks for next week
Sensex gained over 3 points to close at around 77,541 while Nifty 50 rose 20 points to end the session at 24,252. Broader markets performed better, with Nifty Smallcap 100 rising 0.6%.
Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty IT, options data as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from the chat:
1.) Sensex, Nifty have fallen in 4 out of 5 sessions. What does next week’s set up look like?
Since the beginning of August, the benchmark index Nifty has been gradually drifting lower. After marking a low of 24,025, the index witnessed a minor pullback; however, it ended lower for the second consecutive week. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a small-bodied candle with a minor lower shadow, reflecting a lack of strong directional conviction.
An interesting pattern has emerged during August. The index has largely witnessed momentum during the first hour of trading, only to slip into consolidation thereafter. The repeated formation of small-bodied candles further highlights the absence of strong commitment from both bulls and bears. The question now is: who will make the first decisive move?
Technically, the index is currently oscillating around its crucial moving averages, which are largely flat. Momentum indicators and oscillators are also pointing towards a sideways phase. The daily RSI remains in a sideways zone, while the trend-strength indicator, daily ADX, is placed at 12.80 and continues to remain flat. And when the trend indicators go quiet, the next signal often becomes even more important.
Going ahead, the 24,350-24,400 zone will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. On the downside, 24,050-24,000 will remain an important support zone. A decisive move beyond this range could determine whether Nifty is ready for its next big move or another round of consolidation awaits.Sensex: The benchmark index registered a recent high of 79,143 on August 04, following which it entered a phase of gradual correction. However, on Wednesday, the index found support near the lower trendline of its rising channel and witnessed a mild pullback. Despite the recovery attempt, Sensex ended the week around the 77,500 mark, down 0.60%, while forming a small-bodied candle with a lower shadow.
From a technical standpoint, the index continues to hover around its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs. The flattening of these key moving averages suggests a lack of directional bias and points towards a consolidative market structure. Additionally, the daily RSI has remained range-bound over the last ten trading sessions, reinforcing the ongoing sideways trend. The ADX is currently placed at 13.53, highlighting weak trend strength and the absence of any strong momentum in either direction.
Looking ahead, the 77,900-78,000 zone is expected to act as an immediate resistance area. A decisive and sustained breakout above 78000 could trigger renewed buying interest, paving the way for an advance towards 78700, followed by 79300.
On the downside, the 77,000-76,800 zone remains a crucial support band. As long as the index holds above this range, the broader consolidation is likely to continue. However, a breach below these levels could invite further weakness in the near term.
2.) Where are you seeing the derivatives positioning right now, and which Nifty strikes could act as the immediate support and resistance zones going into the next expiry?
Nifty has maintained a higher high–higher low structure since the low of 22,183 recorded on April 2, although the broader movement has remained confined within a range.
A rising trendline connecting the lows of 22,183 on April 2 and 23,072 on June 11, when extended further, provided support to Nifty around 23,606. The index bounced sharply from this trendline and subsequently rallied nearly 5%.
After hitting a high of 24,774 on August 3, which coincided with the first day of the new CAS settlement system, Nifty remained under pressure and failed to close above the previous session’s high for 12 consecutive sessions — its longest such streak in recent history. However, the index has now broken this streak after finding support around the rising trendline in the 24,020–24,000 zone.
Importantly, this trendline support coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upmove from 23,606 to 24,774, making the 24,020–24,000 zone a crucial support area.
Historical evidence also provides some encouragement. A study of the previous three comparable nine-session losing streaks — November 15–25, 2011; August 24–September 5, 2012; and December 5–17, 2012 — shows that Nifty delivered positive returns over the subsequent one-week, one-month and three-month periods. The average gains during these periods stood at 4.32%, 5.36% and 12.27%, respectively.
The derivatives setup further reinforces the importance of 24,000. Put open interest at the 24,000 strike is nearly three times the Call open interest, highlighting strong support around this level. Hence, 24,000 remains a key near-term level to watch. A decisive breach below this zone could trigger fresh selling pressure.
On the upside, 24,500 is the key hurdle, with Call open interest around 3.5 times the Put open interest. A decisive move above 24,500 could trigger short covering and potentially accelerate the upward momentum.
3.) With crude, geopolitical risks and global bond yields all elevated, what is the biggest risk that the options market may be underpricing right now?
The options market could be underpricing tail risk at current levels. IV is around 11, while IVP is near 17, suggesting implied volatility is towards the lower end of its historical range. At the same time, the intraday range has remained compressed since the beginning of August, making it difficult for traders to find meaningful momentum or directional opportunities. This prolonged compression may be creating a sense of complacency in the options market. The key risk is a low-probability but high-impact event, be it geopolitical, macro, a sharp move in crude or in bond yields that suddenly expands the trading range and triggers a spike in volatility. Such a move could catch option sellers off guard, particularly those carrying short-gamma exposure. So, the risk is not just direction, but a sudden repricing of tail risk and volatility.
4.) What are key levels to track for Nifty Bank and Nifty IT?
The banking benchmark, Bank Nifty, has remained in a prolonged consolidation phase over the last 48 trading sessions, trading within a broad range of 58,706-56,023. More recently, the consolidation has tightened further, with the index confined to a narrow 721-point range over the past 13 trading sessions, reflecting a clear lack of directional conviction.
This subdued price action has resulted in the formation of a Bollinger Band Squeeze on the daily chart, a pattern that develops when volatility contracts sharply and the Bollinger Bands narrow significantly. Historically, such phases of compressed volatility are often followed by a strong directional move, making the current setup important from a trading perspective.
Momentum indicators also continue to support the consolidation view. The Daily RSI and Stochastic Oscillator have been moving sideways, indicating the absence of any meaningful bullish or bearish momentum. At the same time, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has slipped to 8.06, its lowest reading since inception, highlighting an extremely weak trend environment.
Going forward, the 58,000-58,200 zone is likely to act as a critical resistance band. A decisive and sustained breakout above this hurdle could trigger a fresh uptrend and lead to a sharp expansion in volatility. On the downside, the 57,200-57,000 zone remains a key support area. A breach below this range may signal the start of a corrective phase.
Overall, Bank Nifty appears to be in the final stages of consolidation, and a convincing move beyond either 58200 on the upside or 57,000 on the downside could mark the beginning of the next trending move in the index.
For Nifty IT, the zone of 30,200-30,000 will act as important support. On the upside, the 200-day EMA zone of 31,600-31,800 will act as a crucial hurdle.
5.) For traders looking beyond the index, which 2-3 stocks currently offer the clearest risk-reward setup in the F&O segment, and what are the levels or triggers that would make you take those trades?
The three stocks that offer the cleanest risk-reward setups in the F&O segment are AU Small Finance Bank, Aditya Birla Capital, and Nippon Life India Asset Management.
AU Small Finance Bank has been consolidating in the Rs 431–384 range for the past eight weeks. Despite the consolidation, the stock continues to trade above its key moving averages, while the rising ADX indicates a gradual buildup in trend strength. A decisive breakout above Rs 431 could trigger the next directional move, with the Rs 385–380 zone acting as an immediate support area.
Aditya Birla Capital hit an all-time high of Rs 1,108 before closing marginally lower on the daily timeframe. The stock has faced strong resistance in the Rs 1,080–1,100 zone, which it has failed to decisively cross multiple times since late April. On the downside, the 20-day EMA has consistently acted as dynamic support, keeping the broader bullish trend intact.
The rising ADX points towards a gradual strengthening of the trend, while the RSI remains above 60 on both the daily and weekly timeframes, indicating sustained bullish momentum. As long as the stock is able to sustain above the Rs 1,100-1,080 zone, the stock is likely to extend its up move.
Nippon Life India Asset Management has given a breakout from a downward-sloping trendline on the daily timeframe, signalling a potential shift in trend. The stock has repeatedly found strong support near its 34-day EMA, which has acted as a reliable dynamic support since August 7. It is now trading above its key short- and long-term moving averages, reinforcing the positive bias.
The MACD line has crossed above the signal line and remains above the zero line, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Additionally, DI+ is positioned above DI- on the ADX indicator, highlighting strong buying pressure. As long as the stock holds above the Rs 1,210-1,200 zone, the pullback is likely to extend further.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Business
ETMarkets NRI Talk| Rs 1 crore, 5-7 years: How NRIs should allocate across Indian equities, bonds, gold and alternatives, says Rohit Sarin
In an interaction with Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Rohit Sarin, Co-Founder, Client Associates, said NRIs should take a holistic view of their global portfolio, India exposure, liquidity needs, risk appetite and tax situation before investing.
While he favours a meaningful allocation to equities, Sarin suggested an illustrative framework of 55-65% in equities, 15-20% in fixed income, 5-10% in gold and 5-10% in alternatives, with the balance in real assets or other diversifiers. The following are the edited excerpts from the chat:
Q) India continues to attract significant interest from NRIs. What are the biggest hurdles NRIs still face when trying to invest in Indian equities and mutual funds, despite the process becoming increasingly digital?
A) The biggest hurdle is no longer access to India; it is navigating the complexity around access. The digital journey has improved considerably, but NRIs still have to deal with the right account structure, KYC, FEMA requirements, repatriation rules, taxation and documentation across different investments.
For a serious NRI investor, therefore, the challenge is less about being able to buy an Indian equity or mutual fund and more about creating a seamless framework for investing, monitoring and eventually repatriating wealth. This is particularly important for families with significant India exposure, where investments need to be considered as part of the overall global portfolio rather than in isolation.
Q) With the rupee hitting Rs 96 per USD, has it impacted NRI investments into India? What is the general mood?
A) INR depreciation against the USD has been a dampener for NRIs investment into India since that eats into their real returns in USD or the currency of their country of residence. The only solution to that is for an NRI investor to approach their India allocation as a strategic allocation to participate in India’s long term growth story.
Besides that additional benefit could be that India allocation would help to diversify their global portfolio on account of poor correlation of Indian markets with US and other emerging markets.The minimum time horizon which NRIs need to look for India allocation is 10 years to achieve the dual objectives of growth and diversification.
However, NRI investors perception of India remains anchored to the times when they left India for the greener pastures and therefore they come late to the party as a tactical allocation when markets in India have already run up and therefore either the correction in Indian markets of the depreciation of the INR hits them too soon to have a good experience.
Q) For an NRI looking to invest in Indian stocks, how should one decide between an NRE and NRO account? What are the key differences from an investment and repatriation perspective?
A) The choice should primarily be driven by the source of funds and the investor’s repatriation requirements.
Broadly, an NRE account is designed for foreign earnings and offers greater flexibility for repatriation, while an NRO account is typically used for managing income earned in India and has more restrictions around repatriation.
For an NRI investing in Indian securities, the account structure should therefore be decided upfront rather than after the investment has been made. The distinction becomes particularly important when the objective is to eventually move investment proceeds back overseas.
The RBI framework permits NRIs to invest in Indian securities through prescribed routes, with the repatriation treatment depending on the investment and account structure.
For larger portfolios, we would recommend taking a holistic view of the account structure, FEMA requirements, taxation and eventual repatriation before deploying capital.
Q) Are NRIs under-allocated to Indian equities compared with their overall exposure to India? Which asset classes should they consider beyond direct stocks and mutual funds?
A) There is certainly a case for NRIs to look at their India exposure more holistically. Many NRIs already have significant economic exposure to India through family businesses, real estate, employment or other assets. Their financial portfolio should therefore complement, rather than simply replicate, that exposure.
From a financial asset perspective, given the choice of instruments and asset classes available globally for comparable returns in USD the best asset class for NRIs to look at would Indian equities.
Q) Tax is often one of the biggest concerns for NRIs. How should they think about the tax treatment of equity, mutual funds, bonds, FDs and alternative investments in India?
A) Tax should be considered at the portfolio-construction stage, not after an investment has already been made.
The treatment can differ significantly depending on the asset, holding period, nature of income, account structure and the NRI’s country of tax residence. Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement provisions can also become relevant.
Therefore, there is no single “NRI tax rate” that can be applied across equities, mutual funds, bonds, FDs and alternatives. Each asset class needs to be evaluated on its post-tax return, liquidity and repatriation characteristics.
Q) Are you seeing greater interest from NRIs in newer products such as AIFs, PMS, private credit, REITs and InvITs? Which could see the biggest growth in NRI portfolios?
A) We see increasing interest in moving beyond traditional listed equities and mutual funds, particularly among sophisticated NRI investors who are looking for diversification and differentiated sources of return.
AIFs and private credit can be particularly relevant for investors with the appropriate risk appetite and investment horizon, while REITs and InvITs can provide access to real assets without requiring direct ownership.
However, we would not expect one product category to become the universal answer. The growth opportunity will come from greater portfolio diversification, with alternatives being used selectively alongside a strong core allocation.
Q) If an NRI has Rs 1 crore of surplus money to invest in India with a 5–7-year horizon, how would you divide it across equities, fixed income, gold, real estate and alternatives?
A) We would be cautious about giving a single allocation without understanding the individual’s existing global portfolio, India exposure, liquidity requirements, risk tolerance and tax situation.
However, for an investor with a 5–7 year horizon and a moderate-to-high risk appetite, our current stance would support a meaningful allocation towards equities, complemented by diversifiers.
As an illustrative framework rather than a personalised recommendation, one could think about approximately 55–65% in equities, 15–20% in fixed income, 5–10% in gold, 5–10% in alternatives and the balance in real assets or other diversifiers.
The important point is that the allocation should be considered alongside the NRI’s existing exposure to Indian business, real estate and global assets.
This is particularly relevant today because CA remains Overweight on equities but Neutral on fixed income.
Q) Could we see more India-focused global funds or India-domiciled products in GIFT City designed specifically for overseas Indians?
A) Yes, we believe this is an area with significant potential.
The opportunity is to create investment structures that give overseas Indians efficient access to India while reducing some of the administrative and operational complexity associated with investing directly through multiple domestic accounts.
GIFT IFSC is already developing into a broader international investment platform, with products spanning equities, ETFs, debt, AIFs and mutual funds. IFSCA specifically highlights NRI access to Indian and global securities and fund structures through the IFSC.
As the ecosystem matures, we could see more products designed around the specific needs of global Indians, particularly those who want India exposure within a globally integrated portfolio structure.
Q) What new financial product is currently missing from the Indian market that could significantly improve the investment experience for NRIs?
A) I would actually argue that the bigger gap is not necessarily another investment product.
It is a better investment architecture for the global Indian.
An NRI often has assets, liabilities, businesses and family interests spread across India and one or more overseas jurisdictions. What is still missing is a truly integrated solution that can bring together global asset allocation, Indian investments, taxation, currency exposure, liquidity and succession within one coherent framework.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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Bank stocks to buy: Goldman Sachs remains bullish on 6 private bank stocks. Do you own any?
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Bitcoin surges 23% in 1 week to trade nearly $78K as liquidity hopes, ETF inflows boost crypto markets
In the past week, Ethereum was up 29.7%. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin, and Cardano rallied upto 56.3%. The global crypto market capitalisation went up $2.2 trillion to $2.53 trillion in one week, according to Coingecko.
Also Read | Explained: 5 reasons why skipping SIPs may affect your long-term wealth creation Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX said crypto markets recorded a strong weekly recovery as improving liquidity expectations outweighed pressure from elevated oil prices and long-term bond yields. Reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, Treasury buybacks and a weaker US dollar supported risk appetite.
“Bitcoin moved from a bearish technical setup into a bullish daily structure as buyers cleared the $64,000, $70,000 and $74,000 levels. Crypto ETFs recorded approximately $1.45 billion in net inflows across four consecutive sessions this week, reversing roughly $220 million in outflows during the preceding three sessions”
Shetty further said the strongest daily inflow approached $710 million which sustained return of capital coincided with rising crypto prices, indicating institutional participation and improving market confidence.
In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin was up 2.8% and Ethereum was up 3% to trade at $2,440 mark. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin, Cardano rallies upto 19.7%. The global crypto market capitalisation went up 3.1% to $2.71 trillion, according to Coingecko.Bitcoin is trading near $78,000 after rising more than 18% from the $63,000 region earlier this week, while Ethereum is near $2,500, said Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange.
Strong Bitcoin ETF inflows have supported prices even after more than $4 billion in crypto shorts were liquidated. On-chain data also shows some distribution from long-term Bitcoin holders, so continued selling near higher levels will be worth watching, Sehgal further said.
On Bitcoin crossing $75,000 mark, SB Seker, Head of APAC, Binance said Bitcoin’s move back above the $75,000 mark is a notable sign of renewed participation after a period of heightened volatility and macro uncertainty.
Also Read | HDFC and Axis Mutual Fund resume subscriptions in gold ETFs and gold ETF FoFs
Market perspective
Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex
Bitcoin has pushed to around $79,000, continuing to rally supported by Treasury buybacks and Trump’s White House crypto summit. A weekly close near current levels, followed by a monthly close above $80,000, could confirm a sustained rally toward $85,000. Meanwhile, $70,000 remains the key support as break below it could trigger a pullback toward $65,000.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Maxell Agustin Aguiran is an independent equity researcher and quantitative analyst who leads a predictive analytics consulting firm. He produces rigorous, primary-source equity research focused on valuation, market-implied expectations, earnings quality, capital allocation, and asymmetric risk-reward. His process combines DCF, FCFF, residual-income, reverse-DCF, scenario, sensitivity, and price-implied expectations analysis with transparent assumptions and fully traceable calculations. Each thesis explains what the market is already pricing in, what must occur for that price to be justified, and where the greatest upside and downside risks lie. Follow for evidence-based investment research and the math behind every rating—not hype, narratives, or black-box conclusions.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Business
JioBlackRock Mutual Fund announces feature changes across 6 funds, including flexi cap, large cap
According to a notice cum addendum these changes in the features of schemes are for the purpose of alignment with “Part IV – Categorization and Rationalization of Mutual Fund Schemes” of the SEBI Master Circular for Mutual Funds dated March 20, 2026.
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JioBlackRock Flexi Cap Fund will now invest 65-100% in equity and equity-related instruments of large cap, mid cap and small cap companies, 0-35% in money market instruments, other liquid instruments and units of mutual fund, 0-20% in units of gold and silver ETFs, and 0-10% in units issued by InvITs.
Earlier the allocation in this flexicap fund was 65-100% in equity and equity-related instruments of largecap, midcap and smallcap companies, 0-35% in debt and money market instruments and 0-10% in units issued by REITs and InvITs.
JioBlackRock Large Cap Fund will now allocate 80-100% in equity and equity-related instruments of largecap companies, 0-20% in equity and equity-related instruments of other than large cap companies, 0-20% in money market instruments, other liquid instruments and units of mutual fund, 0-20% in units of gold and silver ETFs and 0-10% in units issued by InvITs.
JioBlackRock Sector Rotation Fund, a sectoral fund, which earlier allocated its assets in equity and equity related instruments, other equity and equity related instruments and debt and money market instruments will now also allocate in money market instruments, other liquid instruments and units of mutual fund, units of gold and silver ETFs and units issued by InvITs.The JioBlackRock Arbitrage Fund which allocated its assets only in equity and equity related instruments including equity derivatives and debt and money market instruments including the margin money deployed in derivative transactions will now also allocate its money in Gold ETF, Silver ETF and ETCD.
For the JioBlackRock Liquid Fund, the 91 days reference in SID and KIM shall stand replaced with “91 calendar days” with effect from the effective date. “The Scheme will invest in Debt instruments and Money Market instruments with residual maturity upto 91 calendar days,” the notice cum addendum said.
Similarly for the JioBlackRock Overnight Fund, the 30 days reference in SID and KIM shall stand replaced as “30 calendar days” from the effective date. “The overnight fund can deploy not exceeding 5% of the net assets in G-secs and/or T-bills with a residual maturity of upto 30 calendar days for the purpose of placing the same as margin and collateral for certain transactions, according to the notice cum addendum.
The fund house also informed about change in names of its two debt funds – JioBlackRock Short Duration Fund and JioBlackRock Low Duration Fund.
Also Read | HDFC and Axis Mutual Fund resume subscriptions in gold ETFs and gold ETF FoFs
The JioBlackRock Short Duration Fund will now be called the JioBlackRock Short Term Fund, an open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 1 year to 3 years with a relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.
JioBlackRock Low Duration Fund will now be named as the JioBlackRock Ultra Short to Short Term Fund, an open ended debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months to 12 months with a relatively high interest rate risk and moderate credit risk.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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