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F&O Talk: Smallcap index better placed than Nifty, says Sudeep Shah; picks 9 stocks for next week
Sensex gained around 262 points to close at 77,764, while Nifty 50 rose more than 95 points to end the session above 24,270 during Friday’s trading session. The sharp gains added nearly Rs 44,155 crore to the total market capitalisation of all companies listed on BSE, pulling it up to Rs 480 lakh crore.
Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
Nifty has closed the week over a percent higher. What are crucial levels to track next week?
The benchmark index Nifty remained confined to a narrow range of nearly 500 points over the past 13 trading sessions. On Friday, the index finally broke out of this consolidation, but the breakout lacked follow-through as profit booking emerged at higher levels, restricting further gains. Consequently, the index settled the week at 24,270, registering a gain of 0.89%. On the weekly chart, Nifty formed a bullish candle with shadows on both sides, reflecting continued indecisiveness among market participants. Notably, this marks the third consecutive week of an indecisive candlestick formation, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears. But beneath this seemingly directionless move, a completely different story is unfolding in the broader market.While the frontline indices continue to move cautiously, the Nifty Smallcap 100 is painting a completely different picture. The index has consistently outperformed the benchmark over the past few weeks and is now just a stone’s throw away from its all-time high, whereas Nifty continues to trade nearly 8% below its record peak. Moreover, the relative strength chart of the Nifty Smallcap 100 against Nifty has climbed to an 81-week high, underscoring the sustained leadership of the broader market. Based on the prevailing chart structure, the bullish momentum in the small-cap segment is likely to remain intact over the next few trading sessions. The bigger question now is whether Nifty is preparing to follow this leadership or continue lagging behind.
Turning back to Nifty, the index continues to trade comfortably above its 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, indicating that the broader trend remains positive. In addition, the daily RSI has moved above the 60 mark, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. Going forward, the 200-day EMA zone of 24,400–24,450 is expected to act as a crucial resistance area. A decisive move above 24,450 could trigger a fresh leg of the rally towards 24,700, followed by 24,900 in the short term.
On the downside, the 100-day EMA zone of 24,150–24,100 is likely to provide immediate support. A breach below 24,100 could expose the index to the next important support zone near the confluence of the 20 and 50-day EMAs, currently placed around 23,920–23,880. With the market approaching a crucial technical juncture, the next few sessions could decide whether this breakout evolves into a sustained rally or another false start.
In June, Sensex largely remained range-bound, oscillating within a 4500-point band. What’s your outlook for July?
The benchmark index Sensex registered a breakout from a 13-day consolidation phase on Friday. However, the index could not sustain at higher levels and witnessed profit booking, eventually closing the week with a gain of 0.87%. On the weekly chart, Sensex formed a bullish candle with shadows on both sides, marking the third consecutive week of such a formation, indicating indecisiveness despite a positive bias.Technically, the index continues to trade above its 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, with the 20 and 50-day EMAs gradually trending higher, reflecting a constructive undertone. The daily RSI has moved above the 60 mark and remains on an upward trajectory, suggesting strengthening momentum. However, the daily ADX stands at 13.39 and continues to decline, indicating that the current trend lacks strong directional conviction.
Going forward, the 78,300-78,500 zone is likely to act as a key resistance area as prior swing high is placed in that region. A decisive and sustained move above 78,500 could trigger a fresh leg of rally towards 79,200, followed by the psychological 80000 mark in the near term.
On the downside, the 20 and 50-day EMA zone of 76,500-76,400 is expected to provide strong support. As long as the index holds above this zone, the broader short-term outlook is likely to remain positive.
After June’s expiry and the start of a new series, what do F&O positioning and open interest trends suggest?
After the June expiry and the start of the new series, F&O positioning points to a constructive undertone for Nifty. Between June 15 and July 2, the index consolidated in the 23,785–24,262 range while open interest declined 7.11% despite a 1.06% rise in price, indicating gradual short covering rather than fresh short buildup.
The put-call ratio remained stable between 0.81 and 0.85, suggesting balanced positioning with put writers absorbing selling pressure. The FII long-short ratio also improved from 7.58% on 8th June to 17.02% on 29th June during June before easing to 10.36% on expiry day, reinforcing the view that bearish bets were being unwound. Following the July 3 breakout, Nifty has reclaimed the 100-day EMA, RSI has moved above 60, and DI+ has crossed above DI-, signalling strengthening bullish momentum. Any further short covering could provide an additional boost to the ongoing up move.
How are FIIs and DIIs positioned in index futures?
FIIs continue to hold a net short bias in index futures, but positioning suggests gradual short covering rather than fresh bearish additions. The FII long-short ratio improved from 7.58% on June 8 to 17.02% on June 29 before easing to 10.36% on the June expiry. Since the start of the July series, it has slipped marginally to 9.59% as of July 3. However, net short positions in index futures have reduced from 2.56 lakh contracts on June 30 to 2.50 lakh contracts on July 3, indicating that shorts are still being covered, albeit at a slower pace.
Meanwhile, the DII long-short ratio has eased only marginally from 90.22% on June 15 to 86.79% on July 3, reflecting continued supportive positioning. This steady stance from DIIs has helped absorb FII selling pressure and provided stability to the market. With Nifty breaking out of its consolidation range, any acceleration in FII short covering could act as a catalyst for further upside.
How are Nifty IT and Bank placed in the coming week?
Nifty IT – The broader technical structure of the Nifty IT Index remains weak. The index continues to trade below its key moving averages on both the daily and weekly timeframes, indicating that the primary trend remains under pressure.
From a relative strength perspective, the index continues to reside in the lagging quadrant of the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG), reflecting weak relative performance and subdued momentum compared to the broader market. Reinforcing the cautious outlook, the MACD remains below both the zero line and the signal line, indicating the absence of meaningful bullish momentum. Rising ADX indicates bearish trend strength.
Historically, the 26,200–26,100 zone has acted as a strong demand area. Between June 2022 and April 2023, the index witnessed multiple rebounds from this region, making it a crucial long-term support zone.
While intermittent pullbacks and short-covering rallies cannot be ruled out, a meaningful trend reversal is unlikely unless the index decisively reclaims the 28,300–28,400 zone. Until then, the broader technical bias is expected to remain cautious, with any relief rallies likely to encounter selling pressure at higher levels.
Nifty Bank – Last week, the banking benchmark Bank Nifty traded within a narrow range of 939 points, marking its narrowest weekly trading range since the last week of December. The index underperformed the broader benchmark indices and formed a small-bodied candlestick with shadows on both sides. Notably, this was the third consecutive week of a similar candlestick formation, highlighting a phase of indecision among market participants.
Despite the subdued price action, the index continues to trade comfortably above its short and long-term moving averages. These moving averages remain in an upward trajectory, indicating that the broader trend continues to be positive. The daily RSI is positioned in bullish territory; however, it has been oscillating in the 60-63 range over the last four trading sessions, suggesting a lack of fresh momentum at higher levels.
Going forward, the 58,600-58,700 zone is likely to act as a key resistance area for the index. A decisive and sustained breakout above 58,700 could pave the way for a sharp upward move towards 59500, followed by the 60300 level in the short term.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 57,100-57,000 is expected to act as a strong support base. As long as the index sustains above this crucial support zone, the overall short-term trend is likely to remain constructive with a positive bias.
Can you name few stocks that are looking good on the charts for next week?
Technically, Aurobindo Pharma, Lodha, LT Foods, Zydus Life, AB Capital, DLF, Oberoi Realty, Titan, and Divis lab are looking good for next week.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The stock market and value investing are my greatest passions. I bought my first shares at the age of 11, and since then, my fascination with capital markets has only grown stronger. Today, I look back on nine years of in-depth experience. Every day, I dive into company research, analyze annual reports, listen to earnings calls, and study fundamental data. My investment approach is heavily influenced by Warren Buffett: I look for undervalued quality businesses with solid business models, strong balance sheets, and sustainable growth. I don’t follow short-term market noise. I invest with a long-term perspective in companies that offer real, intrinsic value.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
ASEAN’s gig economy is crucial for income, particularly among the young and informal workers, driven by urbanization and digital growth. It’s evolving beyond ride-hailing into diverse opportunities, requiring broader investment strategies.
When most people think about ASEAN’s gig economy, they think of ride-hailing drivers or food delivery riders.
That is part of the picture, but not the full story.
Across Southeast Asia, gig work has become a structural part of the economy, supporting millions of workers and helping cities function more efficiently.
In many markets, informal or platform-based work is not just a side hustle, but a main source of income.
With the share of informal employment being one of the highest in Asia-Pacific, the gig economy is no longer an investment story about which platform wins.
It is a broader long-term theme tied to urbanisation, improving digital infrastructure, and the gradual formalisation of these platforms in the region.
In this article, we look at what is driving ASEAN’s gig economy, how the landscape is evolving, and where investors can gain exposure to this theme.
Why is ASEAN built for gig economy growth?
ASEAN has a unique mix of demographics, economic structure, and infrastructure that makes platform-based work increasingly necessary.
A young, mobile-first population
Source: ASEAN Statistical Highlights 2025
Nearly half of ASEAN’s population was under 30 in 2024 (ASEAN Statistical Highlights 2025), creating a large pool of digitally savvy workers.
In key markets such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia, young people make up a meaningful share of the population, and many have grown up using smartphones as their main gateway to work, payments and services.
This has made younger workers more open to gig work, more comfortable managing multiple income streams, and more reliant on digital platforms to find jobs.
With internet penetration across Southeast Asia already above 80% (Kearney for Asia Tech x Singapore, 2022), the infrastructure to support this shift is largely in place.
The result is a large, young, and mobile-first workforce that is increasingly seeking flexible ways to earn, and that gig platforms can reach at scale.
High levels of informal employment
Despite ASEAN’s large and growing workforce, formal job creation has not kept pace. This has made gig work less a matter of choice, and more a necessity for many workers.
According to the International Labour Organization, more than 16 percent of youth across Southeast Asia were not in education, employment, or training in 2024.
For many of them, gig platforms help fill this gap by offering a flexible and accessible way to earn income without requiring formal qualifications, prior work experience, or even a bank account.
This matters in a region where informal employment remains deeply entrenched.
In countries such as Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand, informal work accounts for more than 80 per cent of total employment. (ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Trend Report No. 19, 2025).
In Indonesia alone, 59 per cent of the country’s 144 million workers are engaged in informal activities (United Nations Development Programme).
Source: ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Trend Report No. 19 (2025)
Against this backdrop, gig platforms have become more than just job-matching apps.
They are increasingly acting as organisers of informal work, offering workers greater structure, better income visibility, and in some cases access to financial services that were previously out of reach.
Congested cities and underdeveloped infrastructure
Urbanisation is also changing where people live and how they earn.
More than half of ASEAN’s population lived in cities in 2024, and as more young workers move into urban centres, they enter places where platform-based work is both easier to access and more in demand. (ASEAN Statistical Highlights, 2025).
At the same time, many of these cities face severe traffic congestion.
In places like Jakarta and Manila, this has made fast and flexible delivery services more essential.
When short trips can take a long time by car, on-demand motorcycle delivery becomes a practical solution for both consumers and businesses.
This has helped platforms such as GoTo play a bigger role in solving last-mile logistics challenges that existing infrastructure could not fully address.
As urbanisation continues across the region, demand for platform-based delivery and on-demand services is likely to keep rising.
Southeast Asia’s food delivery gross merchandise value (GMV) grew from US$17 billion in 2023 to US$23 billion in 2025, with the broader ASEAN-10 market projected to reach US$36 billion by 2030, as platforms move beyond delivery volumes into adjacent revenue streams.
Source: Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company e-Conomy SEA 2025
As urbanisation continues, with countries like Indonesia projected to be 70 percent urbanised by 2045 (World Bank), the structural demand for platform-mediated logistics and on-demand services is likely to deepen.
A fast-growing digital economy
The digital economy that supports gig work has also expanded rapidly.
Across Southeast Asia, digital economy GMV exceeded US$300 billion in 2025, up sharply from about US$40 billion a decade earlier. (Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company, e-Conomy SEA 2025).
That growth rate, 17 percent annually, outpaces that of the United States, Europe, and China.
This reflects not just stronger online consumption, but also the buildout of the digital infrastructure that gig platforms rely on, including payments systems, logistics networks, cloud services and mobile connectivity.
This is a reminder that the gig economy does not operate in isolation. It sits on top of a broader digital ecosystem that is still growing and, in many areas, is still at an early stage of monetisation.
SEA continues to deliver double-digit growth in GMV and revenue.
Source: Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company e-Conomy SEA 2025
What role does the gig economy play in ASEAN?
To understand the investment case, it helps to look beyond the platforms themselves.
In ASEAN, the gig economy plays three important roles in the broader economy, and each creates a different set of opportunities for investors.
Logistics backbone
In many parts of Southeast Asia, logistics infrastructure is still catching up with the needs of a fast growing digital economy.
Warehousing networks remain uneven, last mile delivery can be unreliable, and traditional courier services are often not built for the speed and flexibility that e-commerce requires.
As a result, ride-hailing and delivery platforms powered by millions of gig workers have become an important part of the region’s logistics backbone.
This means the opportunity is not limited to platform companies.
The fulfilment centres, cold chain networks and cross-border logistics hubs that support this ecosystem are also becoming increasingly important and investable.
Labour absorption mechanism
ASEAN’s formal labour market has not expanded fast enough to absorb its young and growing workforce, and gig work has helped fill that gap by providing income opportunities to millions who might otherwise be unemployed or underemployed.
At the same time, the gig economy is no longer limited to ride hailing and food delivery.
In markets such as the Philippines, more workers are using digital platforms to offer services like graphic design, software development, virtual assistance and data work to clients around the world.
As the platform economy expands into higher value segments such as freelance services, digital advertising and skilled remote work, the investment opportunity becomes broader than just transport and delivery.
Financial inclusion engine
The gig economy is also helping to bring more workers into the formal financial system.
Each time a gig worker completes a delivery, drives a passenger or finishes a freelance job through a platform, they leave behind a digital record of income.
That matters because many informal workers have traditionally lacked the documents or credit history that banks require.
Platforms such as GoTo have used this transaction data to offer services like micro loans, insurance and savings tools to workers who may not have had access to conventional banking products before.
In a region where nearly 70 percent of Southeast Asia’s adult population remain unbanked or underbanked (Bain & Company), gig platforms are becoming an important channel for expanding financial inclusion.
A turning point for platform regulation
For much of the past decade, gig platforms in ASEAN operated in a regulatory grey zone. Workers were generally treated as independent contractors rather than employees, allowing platforms to scale quickly but with limited protections for workers.
That is now starting to change.
As gig work becomes a more established part of the economy, governments across the region have begun putting clearer rules in place.
Singapore has taken the lead with the Platform Workers Act, which requires CPF contributions and work injury compensation.
Malaysia has also moved in a similar direction with the Gig Workers Act 2025, mandating contributions to the Social Security Organisation (Socso) and the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) for platform workers.
The Act also broadens the legal definition of gig work beyond ride-hailing and delivery, bringing a wider range of platform-based occupations under its scope.
Other markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand are still at earlier stages, although momentum is building and Indonesia could be the next key market to watch.
For platforms, tighter regulation is likely to raise costs in the near term.
But over time, it could also strengthen larger incumbents. Higher compliance costs may make it harder for smaller players to compete, which could support consolidation and benefit scaled platforms such as GoTo.
For long-term investors, the regulatory shift is worth monitoring closely, as it may increasingly separate the companies that can adapt and endure from those that cannot.
Where are the investment opportunities?
Each ASEAN market differs in platform development, regulatory maturity, and workforce composition. The opportunity for investors lies in understanding where value accrues across platforms, infrastructure, and digital services.
Singapore: regional command centre
Singapore hosts the region’s key platforms and the most developed regulatory framework.
ComfortDelGro (SGX: C52) offers some gig economy exposure in Singapore through its Zig ride-hailing platform, which operates within the country’s formal platform-worker framework.
Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX: M44U) offers exposure to the physical infrastructure behind ASEAN’s gig economy through its portfolio of warehouses and fulfilment centres across the region.
Indonesia: the scale story
Indonesia is the largest gig economy market in Southeast Asia, supported by its large population and sizeable informal workforce.
GoTo Group (IDX: GOTO) is the clearest listed proxy for this theme in Indonesia. Through Gojek, it has a leading position in ride-hailing and food delivery across the country’s major cities, while Tokopedia gives it meaningful exposure to e-commerce as well.
Malaysia: regulation and consolidation
Malaysia stands out for its mix of clearer regulation and rising demand for logistics.
TIME dotCom (KLSE:TIMECOM) specialises in domestic and international connectivity, data centre, cloud and managed services solutions for retail, enterprise and wholesale markets. It operates a fully-fiberised nationwide network anchored by the Cross Peninsular Cable System (CPCS™). The company also has stakes in international submarine cable systems, including UNITY, Asia Pacific Gateway (APG), Asia-Africa-Europe-1 (AAE-1) and FASTER, enabling connectivity between Asia and global markets, while offering borderless cloud services through its carrier-neutral data centres to support regional connectivity needs.
TIME dotcom is a member of Bursa Malaysia Quality 50 Index.
Philippines: the freelance and knowledge-gig hub
The Philippines stands out within ASEAN’s gig economy for its strong role in freelance and digital work, adding a different dimension to the investment case.
Globe Telecom (PSE: GLO) offers exposure through GCash, which sits at the intersection of connectivity and financial inclusion in the Philippines. With more than 94 million registered users, GCash has become an important digital wallet and payments platform, while also expanding into lending and insurance for workers who have traditionally been underserved by formal banking.
Vietnam: a consolidating market
Vietnam’s gig economy has undergone significant consolidation over the past two years.
For investors, this consolidation reduces the subsidy-driven competition that depressed margins across the sector and creates a clearer landscape of investable names.
GrabFood and ShopeeFood now dominate food delivery, while Ahamove has emerged as a significant player in last-mile logistics for businesses.
FPT Corporation (HOSE: FPT) offers a different angle on Vietnam’s gig economy. As the country’s largest technology and IT services company, it provides the digital backbone through software development, IT outsourcing and AI services that supports Vietnam’s growing role in the global tech supply chain.
FPT gives investors exposure not just to platform work, but to the higher-value freelance and contract-based digital work that is becoming a bigger part of the region’s gig economy.
Thailand: tourism, logistics, and a market to watch
While ride-hailing and food delivery are present and growing, Thailand’s platform economy is more closely intertwined with its tourism industry than any other market in ASEAN.
CP All (SET: CPALL) offers indirect but meaningful exposure. Its network of nearly 16,000 7-Eleven stores increasingly serves as a logistics and fulfilment infrastructure layer, which is a physical last-mile network that platform-based commerce depends on for cash payments, parcel collection, and order fulfilment.
Singapore-based investors can access CP All through its Singapore Depository Receipt (SGX: TCPD).
What risks should investors consider?
While the long term case for ASEAN’s gig economy is compelling, there are still several risks investors should keep in mind.
- Profitability remains uncertain
Many of the region’s major platform companies have improved their adjusted EBITDA, but consistent net profitability remains less certain.
Much of the industry’s early growth was supported by subsidies, discounts and aggressive pricing.
The key question now is whether platforms can keep growing as they reduce these incentives.
- Regulation could raise costs
Singapore and Malaysia have already introduced clearer rules for platform workers, and other ASEAN markets may eventually follow.
While this could strengthen the industry over time, it may also increase labour and compliance costs in the near term.
Indonesia is likely the most important market to watch given the size of its gig workforce.
- Not every platform will survive
The recent consolidation seen in markets such as Vietnam is a reminder that platform exits can still happen.
Competitive pressure, weaker funding conditions or strategic shifts by parent companies could force smaller or less well-capitalised players to scale back or leave the market.
4. Currency movements can affect returns
Investing across ASEAN also means taking on exposure to multiple regional currencies. Even if a company performs well operationally, returns for Singapore based investors can be affected if local currencies weaken against the Singapore dollar or US dollar.
Putting the ASEAN gig economy in perspective
For investors looking at ASEAN’s gig economy, we would avoid treating it as a narrow bet on ride-hailing or food delivery alone.
Instead, we would view it as a broader structural theme tied to three long-term trends: the digitalisation of work, the buildout of logistics and fulfilment infrastructure, and the expansion of financial services to underserved workers and merchants.
That means taking a diversified approach to exposure.
ComfortDelGro can offer one angle through its Zig ride-hailing platform and point-to-point transport business, while infrastructure names such as Mapletree Logistics Trust, and digital finance or services players such as Globe Telecom and FPT, offer other ways to gain exposure to the same broader theme.
We would also look across markets rather than focus on just one country. Singapore offers access to listed transport and infrastructure names, Indonesia provides scale, the Philippines adds exposure to freelance and financial inclusion trends, while Vietnam and Malaysia offer more specialised angles through technology and logistics.
Overall, we think the most resilient way to invest in ASEAN’s gig economy is to spread exposure across platforms, infrastructure and digital services, rather than try to pick a single winner.
This article was written by Beansprout, a MAS-licensed investment advisory platform, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges.
Source : ASEAN’s Gig Economy: More Than a Side Hustle
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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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